Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-10-2019 5:37am #1

Main risks: Flooding, Snowfall
Potential Warnings: Yellow

During Thursday night and Friday morning pulses of heavy rain will cross the country from the southwest. Through the day heavy rain is expected in Munster and Leinster. Lighter and more patchy in Connaught/Ulster.

There is a risk of spot flooding.

It's meeting very cold air from the northwest. There is a risk of snowfall inland (temporary accumulations here) to low levels and on mountains. Rain and sleet elsewhere on coasts. Special attention should be given to the Wicklow mountains here which look particularly vulnerable to heavy snowfall because of the way this system is likely to pivot.

It will be a bitterly cold day with temperatures ranging from 0 - 4c (coldest in the south and east).

A bitterly cold night follows with temperatures sub zero for most (down to -3 or -4c in places) with ice and frost widespread.

Winds northeasterly, shifting to northwesterly later in the day.

Whether you get snow or not it will be a shock to the system so keep in mind the risks when travelling or out and about.

I'll update again this evening.

Graces7 · 23-10-2019 6:55am

OH MY!

OOOOOOOOOOOO! MYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

:);)

Shiver me timbers..

sjb25 · 23-10-2019 7:01am

The s word on the boards weather forum

pauldry · 23-10-2019 7:22am

Looks like our Winter will be on a Friday this year

Comhrá · 23-10-2019 8:48am

....A bitterly cold night follows with temperatures sub zero for most (down to -3 or -4c in places) with ice and frost widespread.....

Wow, that's pretty extreme for late October, bearing in mind it's still Autumn.

Villain · 23-10-2019 8:51am

ECMWF shifts the low further Southeast but GFS sticking to its guns, will be interesting to watch, hoping for a covering on Lugnaquilla by Saturday morning to get a nice early icy mountain hike in

dsmythy · 23-10-2019 8:54am

Guess I better enjoy what seems to be setting up to be a nice October day today.

I think anyone off a mountain top should take a rain check on the snow though. First icy conditions potentially. Could catch some interests out.

sryanbruen · 23-10-2019 8:58am

Comhra wrote: »

Wow, that's pretty extreme for late October, bearing in mind it's still Autumn.

Max temperatures probably be more remarkable to be honest. Got down to -4.7C at the end of October last year here.

TTLF · 23-10-2019 10:00am

Might hop on the bus up to enniskerry the Saturday if There’s any lying snow In the Wicklow mts

vizualpics · 23-10-2019 10:15am

Has MT issued his Winter Forecast yet? Any links to same?

Zzippy · 23-10-2019 10:21am

Ah sh!te. I still have late tomatoes ripening in the polytunnel, was hoping for no frost for a few weeks yet.

Captain Snow · 23-10-2019 10:24am

Friday the cold arrives. 528 Dam arrives.

Saturday 528 Dam fragments across Ireland.
Ninja Snow across Ireland.

This Mornings ECM wants to keep us on the cold side. Messy High Pressure Building south of Greenland. LPs being kept out.

Friday Snow Risk

Friday Snow Depth (Experimental).

arctictree · 23-10-2019 11:18am

Looking snowy for the south east on Friday according to the 06z GFS. Best spots slightly inland and on higher ground.

Stevieluvsye · 23-10-2019 11:19am

Good stuff. Off on Friday. Might see some action

Billcarson · 23-10-2019 11:20am

Surely max daytime temps on Friday won't be as cold as 0- 4c? The hills yes, but at low levels??

Supercell · 23-10-2019 11:45am

Trip up the mountains this weekend so. Saw snow in Annamoe when I lived there before in October so its definitely possible, great stuff!

RobertKK · 23-10-2019 12:00pm

Looks good for the high ground for Kilkenny according to the charts.

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 12:12pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Surely max daytime temps on Friday won't be as cold as 0- 4c? The hills yes, but at low levels??

They could well be in parts of Wicklow, Carlow and Kilkenny. more like 5 to 7C elsewhere.

57-580UK.GIF?23-6

The system is further south yet again today, wintry falls look more restricted to high ground in Wicklow and Kilkenny. If the system moves much further south, it could well miss us altogether.

57-574UK.GIF?23-6

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 12:19pm

Frost also looks like an issue with temperatures below 0C at night for much of the country from Friday to Tuesday.

Saturday morning:
72-580UK.GIF?23-6

Sunday morning:
96-580UK.GIF?23-6

bazlers · 23-10-2019 12:39pm

Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?

highdef · 23-10-2019 12:45pm

bazlers wrote: »

Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?

No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the snow.

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 12:50pm

bazlers wrote: »

Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?

The Beast from the East gave prolonged snow showers in a narrow band stretching from Dublin, through Kildare and on into parts of Westmeath and Offally. Snow showers were rather isolated further north and south of there with many places seeing nothing at all until Storm Emma. It wasn't untill Storm Emma got going that many places received the majority of their snowfall over a 24 to 36 hour period.

Spanish Eyes · 23-10-2019 12:53pm

I'll be in Estepona Spain, current temp 24d and sunny!

Sorry to miss the snow though ha ha.

realdanbreen · 23-10-2019 12:55pm

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

Stevieluvsye · 23-10-2019 12:57pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

I'd thread carefully around here with comments like that :pac:

[Deleted User] · 23-10-2019 12:59pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

Awwww the thought of snow reminds me of childhood and fun. Now I know it doesn’t usually end up fun if you’re an adult. But happy thoughts are good for mental health.

Tabnabs · 23-10-2019 12:59pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

compsys · 23-10-2019 1:08pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

Why is that?

highdef · 23-10-2019 1:20pm

Snow chances are looking slimmer and slimmer as time passes. It's really only been GFS that had been hinting at a possible snow event. None of the other models were having much/any of it. The more regular posters here also know that this latest iteration of the GFS model has had a known cold bias and roll-out of it was delayed as the algorithms were tinkered with. It's quite possible that cold bias has not been fully sorted out and it is really as we begin to move into the autumn/winter period that we see evidence of it.

It's also quite plausible that GFS is just over doing the cold in this particular instance as a once-off but only time will tell.

It's also plausible that the GFS is right and all the other are wrong but we'll know the answer to that in about 48 hours from now :P

bazlers · 23-10-2019 1:22pm

highdef wrote: »

No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the

So the south east got the majority from the actual approaching front, then it petered out the further north it went. Where as Midlands and east was from the streamers the previous day.

arctictree · 23-10-2019 1:29pm

bazlers wrote: »

highdef wrote: »

No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the

So the south east got the majority from the actual approaching front, then it petered out the further north it went. Where as Midlands and east was from the streamers the previous day.

My location, (East Wicklow) completely missed the streamers although a few miles to the North of me got plastered. Only really got snow from the storm, but then got nearly a meter of it. I remember it was -2c at midday the day before the storm.

Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

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