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Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

  • 23-10-2019 5:37am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,809 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Main risks: Flooding, Snowfall
    Potential Warnings: Yellow


    During Thursday night and Friday morning pulses of heavy rain will cross the country from the southwest. Through the day heavy rain is expected in Munster and Leinster. Lighter and more patchy in Connaught/Ulster.

    There is a risk of spot flooding.

    It's meeting very cold air from the northwest. There is a risk of snowfall inland (temporary accumulations here) to low levels and on mountains. Rain and sleet elsewhere on coasts. Special attention should be given to the Wicklow mountains here which look particularly vulnerable to heavy snowfall because of the way this system is likely to pivot.

    It will be a bitterly cold day with temperatures ranging from 0 - 4c (coldest in the south and east).

    A bitterly cold night follows with temperatures sub zero for most (down to -3 or -4c in places) with ice and frost widespread.

    Winds northeasterly, shifting to northwesterly later in the day.

    Whether you get snow or not it will be a shock to the system so keep in mind the risks when travelling or out and about.

    I'll update again this evening.


«1345

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 30,516 ✭✭✭✭ Graces7


    OH MY!

    OOOOOOOOOOOO! MYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

    :D:);)

    Shiver me timbers..


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,300 ✭✭✭ sjb25


    The s word on the boards weather forum


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Looks like our Winter will be on a Friday this year


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,477 ✭✭✭ Comhrá


    ....A bitterly cold night follows with temperatures sub zero for most (down to -3 or -4c in places) with ice and frost widespread.....

    Wow, that's pretty extreme for late October, bearing in mind it's still Autumn.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    ECMWF shifts the low further Southeast but GFS sticking to its guns, will be interesting to watch, hoping for a covering on Lugnaquilla by Saturday morning to get a nice early icy mountain hike in :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,403 ✭✭✭✭ dsmythy


    Guess I better enjoy what seems to be setting up to be a nice October day today.

    I think anyone off a mountain top should take a rain check on the snow though. First icy conditions potentially. Could catch some interests out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Comhra wrote: »
    Wow, that's pretty extreme for late October, bearing in mind it's still Autumn.

    Max temperatures probably be more remarkable to be honest. Got down to -4.7C at the end of October last year here.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 611 ✭✭✭ TTLF


    Might hop on the bus up to enniskerry the Saturday if There’s any lying snow In the Wicklow mts ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 70 ✭✭✭ vizualpics


    Has MT issued his Winter Forecast yet? Any links to same?


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,138 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Zzippy


    Ah sh!te. I still have late tomatoes ripening in the polytunnel, was hoping for no frost for a few weeks yet.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭ Captain Snow


    Friday the cold arrives. 528 Dam arrives.


    iF3LfRw.png


    Saturday 528 Dam fragments across Ireland.
    Ninja Snow across Ireland.


    IWyRmzI.png


    This Mornings ECM wants to keep us on the cold side. Messy High Pressure Building south of Greenland. LPs being kept out.

    slhGOqF.png



    Friday Snow Risk

    TQcqcDw.png

    Friday Snow Depth (Experimental).

    u1Ce5jP.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,044 ✭✭✭ arctictree


    Looking snowy for the south east on Friday according to the 06z GFS. Best spots slightly inland and on higher ground.

    GFSOPUK06_57_53.png


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭ Stevieluvsye


    Good stuff. Off on Friday. Might see some action


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Surely max daytime temps on Friday won't be as cold as 0- 4c? The hills yes, but at low levels??


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,544 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    Trip up the mountains this weekend so. Saw snow in Annamoe when I lived there before in October so its definitely possible, great stuff!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,549 ✭✭✭✭ RobertKK


    Looks good for the high ground for Kilkenny according to the charts.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Surely max daytime temps on Friday won't be as cold as 0- 4c? The hills yes, but at low levels??

    They could well be in parts of Wicklow, Carlow and Kilkenny. more like 5 to 7C elsewhere.

    57-580UK.GIF?23-6

    The system is further south yet again today, wintry falls look more restricted to high ground in Wicklow and Kilkenny. If the system moves much further south, it could well miss us altogether.

    57-574UK.GIF?23-6


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Frost also looks like an issue with temperatures below 0C at night for much of the country from Friday to Tuesday.

    Saturday morning:
    72-580UK.GIF?23-6

    Sunday morning:
    96-580UK.GIF?23-6


  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    bazlers wrote: »
    Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?

    No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the snow.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    bazlers wrote: »
    Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?

    The Beast from the East gave prolonged snow showers in a narrow band stretching from Dublin, through Kildare and on into parts of Westmeath and Offally. Snow showers were rather isolated further north and south of there with many places seeing nothing at all until Storm Emma. It wasn't untill Storm Emma got going that many places received the majority of their snowfall over a 24 to 36 hour period.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,362 ✭✭✭✭ Spanish Eyes


    I'll be in Estepona Spain, current temp 24d and sunny!

    Sorry to miss the snow though ha ha.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,601 ✭✭✭ realdanbreen


    Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,907 ✭✭✭ Stevieluvsye


    Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

    I'd thread carefully around here with comments like that :pac:


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

    Awwww the thought of snow reminds me of childhood and fun. Now I know it doesn’t usually end up fun if you’re an adult. But happy thoughts are good for mental health.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,438 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Tabnabs


    Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

    giphy.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 928 ✭✭✭ compsys


    Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

    Why is that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    Snow chances are looking slimmer and slimmer as time passes. It's really only been GFS that had been hinting at a possible snow event. None of the other models were having much/any of it. The more regular posters here also know that this latest iteration of the GFS model has had a known cold bias and roll-out of it was delayed as the algorithms were tinkered with. It's quite possible that cold bias has not been fully sorted out and it is really as we begin to move into the autumn/winter period that we see evidence of it.

    It's also quite plausible that GFS is just over doing the cold in this particular instance as a once-off but only time will tell.

    It's also plausible that the GFS is right and all the other are wrong but we'll know the answer to that in about 48 hours from now :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 475 ✭✭ bazlers


    highdef wrote: »
    No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the

    So the south east got the majority from the actual approaching front, then it petered out the further north it went. Where as Midlands and east was from the streamers the previous day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,044 ✭✭✭ arctictree


    bazlers wrote: »
    highdef wrote: »
    No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the

    So the south east got the majority from the actual approaching front, then it petered out the further north it went. Where as Midlands and east was from the streamers the previous day.

    My location, (East Wicklow) completely missed the streamers although a few miles to the North of me got plastered. Only really got snow from the storm, but then got nearly a meter of it. I remember it was -2c at midday the day before the storm.


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