Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Letwin_Larry · 23-10-2019 10:31AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

"Vote for me - i'm better than Theresa May." Could be another great campaign slogan.

I guess, though, if she'd been willing to go back on her promises, like Johnson was, then she could very easily have got to this stage too.

what about

"Vote for me & my party!
I'm not as big a $hyster as the others!"

probably suit Jo Swinson most, and BoJo or Farage least.

10000maniacs · 23-10-2019 10:31AM

VinLieger wrote: »

He has provably lied countless times while working as a journalist(for which he lost his job) while Mayor of London, while an MP and since he became PM, therefore by the very definition of "degenerate" ie "an immoral or corrupt person." he is definitely one.

Having seen Stanley Johnson's comments on the Irish border, i.e "they all want to shoot themselves anyway" and they are "Bog Rats", I think to describe Boris as degenerate in the dictionary sense, he has to have "declined or become less specialized (as in nature, character, structure, or function) from an ancestral or former state."
Stanley has saved him from being labeled as that anyway.

Joe_ Public · 23-10-2019 10:39AM

Lot of talk about a spring election. Farage predicting it on sky this morning, among others. Doesnt really square with a 3 month extension, does it? As soon as they reach January they'll need to ask to extend all over again.

Joe_ Public · 23-10-2019 10:42AM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

what about

"Vote for me & my party!
I'm not as big a $hyster as the others!"

probably suit Jo Swinson most, and BoJo or Farage least.

Its not bad, but should by any measure at least be 5% credible!!

prawnsambo · 23-10-2019 10:43AM

eagle eye wrote: »

There are lots of people who think he is normal and a great man. See the Brexit referendum andreccet polls and the UK European election for proof.
Sp just because you and I disagree with his politics and beliefs that does not make the man a degenerate.
In fact anybody calling him that is closer to being one.

Since when does 'popularity' define morals? The man has the morals of an alley cat. That's pretty much undeniable. He's had numerous affairs, lied about them to his boss, lied in newspaper articles repeatedly, wasted millions upon millions of taxpayer's money on vanity projects, colluded with an old friend who wanted a journalist beaten up and is under investigation for involvement in taxpayer's money going to a 'friend'. There is no objective appraisal of his history that doesn't end up with the word degenerate. At best.

Enzokk · 23-10-2019 10:44AM

BarryD2 wrote: »

It seems that he'll have to go with a 3 month extension at least. If he goes for a short one, then the opposition can organise to table amendments like a customs union which would be anathema to him. So he would then be humiliated into asking for another extension for a general election.

They need a GE to sort it out but I suppose the question of the timing is who can win the wrestling match to get the best narrative.

When it does happen, it'll be very interesting to see what happens up north. You could see that voters on both sides of the divide up there will be rightly pissed off with the MPs they elected last time for different reasons. Alliance could be big winners and rightly so.

How does he get an election? If he resigns it doesn't mean an election and he doesn't have the numbers to vote for one either. He cannot call a VONC in himself, at least I don't think he can as that would look very bad at the polls.

So whatever he does he is stuck and there is only a few open moves which I think he has ruled out. Working with Labour to get the deal passed, May ignored this and look where she is. Or offer a second referendum to his deal to get it passed, which he has not broached at all. So stuck in a corner not able to move unless he backtracks which will hurt him in voters eyes in favour of the Brexit Party.

Joe_ Public · 23-10-2019 10:51AM

Johnson can of course circumvent the ftpa by introducing a one line bill to force an election. Just requires a simple majority to achieve it. Such a bill can be amended though so that might put him off a bit.

Junkyard Tom · 23-10-2019 10:54AM

When questioned on what the UKGov does if, in the longer term, Stormont doesn't reconvene the NI SoS, at the NI Affairs Committee, advises that they'd have to work very closely with Dublin.

A thinly veiled threat of joint authority.

farmchoice · 23-10-2019 10:58AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Johnson can of course circumvent the ftpa by introducing a one line bill to force an election. Just requires a simple majority to achieve it. Such a bill can be amended though so that might put him off a bit.

this option has been mooted repeatedly by everyone but team Johnson, for some reason they definitely dont fancy it, i suppose if it could amended it could present all sorts of problems for him.

J Mysterio · 23-10-2019 10:58AM

Terrible tragedy of smuggled people dying in lorry cargo seems oddly prescient given the debate and trouble over the 'sea border'.

The lorry came to London via Holyhead from Bulgaria via Ireland. Strange route of course.

Thirty-nine people found dead in a container in Essex.
Lorry driver from Northern Ireland has been arrested on suspicion of murder

BonnieSituation · 23-10-2019 10:59AM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

When questioned on what the UKGov does if, in the longer term, Stormont doesn't reconvene the NI SoS, at the NI Affairs Committee, advises that they'd have to work very closely with Dublin.

A thinly veiled threat of joint authority.

Can ya link to that?

BarryD2 · 23-10-2019 10:59AM

Enzokk wrote: »

How does he get an election? If he resigns it doesn't mean an election and he doesn't have the numbers to vote for one either. He cannot call a VONC in himself, at least I don't think he can as that would look very bad at the polls.

Obviously he needs the Labour Party to agree on an election. So isn't it all about managing the public narrative and spin? Both sides will be wrangling to get themselves into a position that plays well to the public. The EU are going to need to hold their noses and turn a blind eye to another bout of shenanigans.

Zubeneschamali · 23-10-2019 11:00AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Just because an MP voted for the second reading stage doesn't mean they'll make it law.

Indeed, I think two of the Labour rebels yesterday made that point to Corbyn in the HoC, and he told them he understood their point of view. He still asked them not to do it, but he sees their point.

farmchoice · 23-10-2019 11:00AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Terrible tragedy of smuggled people dying in lorry cargo seems oddly prescient given the debate and trouble over the 'sea border'.

The lorry came to London via Holyhead from Bulgaria via Ireland. Strange route of course.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/thirty-nine-people-found-dead-in-a-container-in-essex-1.4060089?mode=amp

not to go off topic too much but there is obliviously something not right in the details of the story, why the hell go all the way through the england only to leave again to then re-enter through NI.

LeinsterDub · 23-10-2019 11:01AM

farmchoice wrote: »

this option has been mooted repeatedly by everyone but team Johnson, for some reason they definitely dont fancy it, i suppose if it could amended it could present all sorts of problems for him.

He is afraid of the amendments. If he proposed it and Labour added an amendment to it to lower the voting age to 16 he'd then be in the position of either allowing 16 year old to who and the younger you are the less likely it is you vote Tory or he'd have to vote against his own bill .

Joe_ Public · 23-10-2019 11:01AM

farmchoice wrote: »

this option has been mooted repeatedly by everyone but team Johnson, for some reason they definitely dont fancy it, i suppose if it could amended it could present all sorts of problems for him.

Guess he's worried they'll amend it to enfranchise 16 year olds, and maybe bring more emigrants into voting fold too. Brackets of citizens who remain stubbornly immune to the pm's wondrous charms.

Strazdas · 23-10-2019 11:03AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Terrible tragedy of smuggled people dying in lorry cargo seems oddly prescient given the debate and trouble over the 'sea border'.

The lorry came to London via Holyhead from Bulgaria via Ireland. Strange route of course.

Thirty-nine people found dead in a container in Essex.
Lorry driver from Northern Ireland has been arrested on suspicion of murder

If it came via Dublin-Holyhead, it greatly would increase the chances of those poor people dying. Would have added an extra 24 hours inside the container at least.

Letwin_Larry · 23-10-2019 11:04AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Terrible tragedy of smuggled people dying in lorry cargo seems oddly prescient given the debate and trouble over the 'sea border'.

The lorry came to London via Holyhead from Bulgaria via Ireland. Strange route of course.

Thirty-nine people found dead in a container in Essex.
Lorry driver from Northern Ireland has been arrested on suspicion of murder

truly horrific. my guess is they are probably from Syria. as if their lives couldn't get any worse.
immigration going to be a big issue in any GE.

LuckyLloyd · 23-10-2019 11:09AM

eagle eye wrote: »

There are lots of people who think he is normal and a great man. See the Brexit referendum andreccet polls and the UK European election for proof.
Sp just because you and I disagree with his politics and beliefs that does not make the man a degenerate.
In fact anybody calling him that is closer to being one.

Jaysus even in your boards career of contrary posting, this takes the biscuit. Worth reading more about him if you aren’t that familiar:

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/08/15/boris-johnson-ham-of-fate/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/24/boris-johnson-prime-minister-tory-party-britain

He’s neither a normal nor great man by any stretch.

farmchoice · 23-10-2019 11:11AM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

truly horrific. my guess is they are probably from Syria. as if their lives couldn't get any worse.
immigration going to be a big issue in any GE.

we dont know are are living folks, those poor people just trying to have a bit of a life for themselves, hoping against hope to get a small bit of what we have and what we take for granted.
there are Syrian refugees in my town, i know a few of them, decent family people, just trying their best.

lawred2 · 23-10-2019 11:11AM

farmchoice wrote: »

not to go off topic too much but there is obliviously something not right in the details of the story, why the hell go all the way through the england only to leave again to then re-enter through NI.

France Rosslare is what I would guess

Junkyard Tom · 23-10-2019 11:12AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Can ya link to that?

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/db50ce98-55f0-4fad-a51b-d03bc468ccec

Go to 10:33:15 seconds.

Letwin_Larry · 23-10-2019 11:18AM

farmchoice wrote: »

we dont know are are living folks, those poor people just trying to have a bit of a life for themselves, hoping against hope to get a small bit of what we have and what we take for granted.
there are Syrian refugees in my town, i know a few of them, decent family people, just trying their best.

i really hope they get the people that organised this outrage.
my wife runs a retail outlet. she gets Syrian women in fairly often. they like to haggle. they are always respectful and good humoured.
i'm really very saddened by this awful news.

sondagefaux · 23-10-2019 11:20AM

tuxy wrote: »

Will amendments have to be approved by the EU?
I guess it depends on what they might be.

The amendments would not be to the Withdrawal Agreement itself but to the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

Amendments could, for example, force the UK government to seek a 2 year extension to the Withdrawal Agreement (due to expire on 31.12.2020 but can be extended up to 31.12.2022 by mutual agreement between the UK and EU) which the EU would almost certainly agree to.

Amendments could also force a UK government to seek to negotiate a customs union with the EU, and to seek to negotiate continuing alignment with EU rules on workers' rights, environmental law etc, all of which the EU would almost certainly agree to.

An amendment to ensure that the Bill would only become law if approved in a referendum, with a clause that says the UK will remain in the UK if the referendum does not approve the Bill, is also possible, although far less certain to pass.

This may require a longer extension if it does pass, as existing UK electoral law means that about 22 weeks is needed to prepare for and hold a referendum once parliament passes a law to call a referendum.

But an amendment on a referendum on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill could amend existing electoral law and allow for a referendum to be held within 6 weeks, well before the January 31st deadline, as argued by Jessica Simor in the Observer last Sunday.

sondagefaux · 23-10-2019 11:25AM

Purgative wrote: »

Maybe we get a few Mill from the EU for a few years. It will make a good headline, I'm sure.

Will that be enough to repair the damage to farm incomes?

Enough to unravel the milk processing scheme that zig-zags across the border like a cats cradle?

Enough for the extra Garda for when the North kicks off again?

Apart from a No Deal Brexit, which is now extremely unlikely to happen, any Brexit deal will keep the border as open as it is now for trade in goods.

gooch2k9 · 23-10-2019 11:26AM

Nothing is going to happen until the EU respond to the extension agreement now?

Joe_ Public · 23-10-2019 11:26AM

sondagefaux wrote: »

The amendments would not be to the Withdrawal Agreement itself but to the Withdrawal Agreement Bill.

Amendments could, for example, force the UK government to seek a 2 year extension to the Withdrawal Agreement (due to expire on 31.12.2020 but can be extended up to 31.12.2022 by mutual agreement between the UK and EU) which the EU would almost certainly agree to.

Amendments could also force a UK government to seek to negotiate a customs union with the EU, and to seek to negotiate continuing alignment with EU rules on workers' rights, environmental law etc, all of which the EU would almost certainly agree to.

An amendment to ensure that the Bill would only become law if approved in a referendum, with a clause that says the UK will remain in the UK if the referendum does not approve the Bill, is also possible, although far less certain to pass.

This may require a longer extension if it does pass, as existing UK electoral law means that about 22 weeks is needed to prepare for and hold a referendum once parliament passes a law to call a referendum.

But an amendment on a referendum on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill could amend existing electoral law and allow for a referendum to be held within 6 weekswell before the January 31st deadline, as argued by Jessica Simor in the Observer last Sunday.

One question i'd have about, say, a cu amendment is you'd be mandating Johnson, assuming he's still pm, to negotiate it with the eu. How can you ensure he does so in good faith? Are their provisions that will force him to do so or that would kick in in the event he failed?

Letwin_Larry · 23-10-2019 11:28AM

lawred2 wrote: »

France Rosslare is what I would guess

you could well be correct.
perhaps the truck had come from the continent and was enroute to Ireland. could it have been resting-up in Essex before the journey to Holyhead?

sondagefaux · 23-10-2019 11:31AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

One question i'd have about, say, a cu amendment is you'd be mandating Johnson, assuming he's still pm, to negotiate it with the eu. How can you ensure he does so in good faith? Are their provisions that will force him to do so or that would kick in in the event he failed?

The Padfield judgment of 1968 by the UK courts makes it illegal for any member of the government, including the Prime Minister, to try to frustrate the aims of an Act of Parliament.

This is why Johnson had to send a letter requesting an extension under the Benn Act even though he didn't want to.

If Johnson is Prime Minister during the negotiations, he must act lawfully. If he doesn't, the courts can step in and order him to do so.

sondagefaux · 23-10-2019 11:33AM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

you could well be correct.
perhaps the truck had come from the continent and was enroute to Ireland. could it have been resting-up in Essex before the journey to Holyhead?

Apparently it first entered Britain via Holyhead.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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