Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

FrancieBrady · 22-10-2019 04:45PM

Sammy had the air of a man who knows the game is up tbh.

Spanish Eyes · 22-10-2019 04:50PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Sammy had the air of a man who knows the game is up tbh.

I am trying my best not be judgmental here, but with abortion and SSM being introduced soon also, it is very difficult indeed for me to not put my Schadenfreude hat on WRG Dup.

Joe_ Public · 22-10-2019 04:54PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

He is indeed, as are many other Tories, like them or not. All of the articulate ones have been sacked though. Typical scorched earth policy now. Left with the idiots like M Francois and JR Mogg etc. of course we are.

In response to a post I made yesterday about Johnson's rather tough prospects in his Uxbridge constituency, many mentioned that J would be parachuted into Grieve's. Honestly the machinations going on now are just so absolutely personal and awful. How Tory voters cannot see through this is mind boggling. But anyway, I am whistling in the wind I suppose at this stage.

Very silly man if he tried to parachute himself into grieves constituency. Not only would he have to contend with grieve as an independent, it would very easy for all other parties, including lab, to stand aside in support of grieve. Running away from his constituency is not a good look for any pm, let alone one so full of bluster as this one. You'd never know, but dont think he has any real option but to stay where he is and fight.

FrancieBrady · 22-10-2019 04:57PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

but with abortion and SSM being introduced soon also, .

Point of order: SSM and Abortion rights became legal at one minute past midnight today.

Spanish Eyes · 22-10-2019 05:09PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Point of order: SSM and Abortion rights became legal at one minute past midnight today.

Acceded to by the Speaker!

OK the legislation will be later on, but it is a shoo in, if the Assembly continues to mess around and refuse to reconvene anytime soon

The Assembly yesterday refused to appoint a Speaker and Deputy Speaker so it all went South after that (pun).

DUP must be raging, and I don't care much anymore now. I think if all other reps had said NO to abortion and SSM, they would have said YES. It is very difficult for me not to castigate them, but I will try my best to be civil.

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 05:12PM

Someone at the coalface offering reflections.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/22/operation-yellowhammer-brexit-preparations

ToBeFrank123 · 22-10-2019 05:14PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Acceded to by the Speaker!

OK the legislation will be later on, but it is a shoo in, if the Assembly continues to mess around and refuse to reconvene anytime soon

The Assembly yesterday refused to appoint a Speaker and Deputy Speaker so it all went South after that (pun).

DUP must be raging, and I don't care much anymore now. I think if all other reps had said NO to abortion and SSM, they would have said YES. It is very difficult for me not to castigate them, but I will try my best to be civil.

The latest in a long line of own goals from the DUP. They've long had a disrespect for the Assembly and only belatedly signed up for the GFA when they thought power was near, but generally are quite happy to outsource big decisions to Westminister. Only to then cry foul when those decisions go against them. Another protest party at best with no interest in making unpopular decisions.

devnull · 22-10-2019 05:16PM

Just heard John Redwood talking about no such thing as no deal as its either having a withdrawal agreement or not and not no deal.

Then there is the number 10 source saying that Boris is ringing round leaders to tell them not to grant extension which clearly is frustrating the Benn act?

But starting to think most of this number 18 source stuff is a variation on dead cat strategy being used as cover for the real reasons for things.

prawnsambo · 22-10-2019 05:22PM

liamtech wrote: »

Would you agree that the EU are giving BoJo a chance to get his deal across the line? i suspect if they immediately gave a 3 month extension then there would be no excuse (on either side HOC) for not having an election -

And in the case of the election do you believe JC would actually push for an 'Ill get a better deal (renegotiate)' PLUS referendum - cause that seems to be Labor - Renegotiate and Referendum - would he have a chance in that scenario?

The EU well know that this isn't possible. But they also know that most MPs couldn't read a line of text without forgetting how it started. So they'll wait as long as possible before granting an extension. Partly because of the above and partly because there are so many possible outcomes, not least a GE that could manifest in the next week.

I have no idea what Corbyn will do. But polls aren't looking good for him at the moment. So an election manifesto is needed first.

liamtech · 22-10-2019 05:28PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

The EU well know that this isn't possible. But they also know that most MPs couldn't read a line of text without forgetting how it started. So they'll wait as long as possible before granting an extension. Partly because of the above and partly because there are so many possible outcomes, not least a GE that could manifest in the next week.

I have no idea what Corbyn will do. But polls aren't looking good for him at the moment. So an election manifesto is needed first.

Well sky and the Beeb definitely stating that this is the closest of the votes, and is simply to difficult to call - more labor leavers may well vote for this - So yea i guess all eyes on 7pm me thinks

Do we fully know whether a defeat of the first will cancel the second vote?

My understanding is

VOTE ONE - Bill itself putting beginning process of translating deal to law

VOTE TWO - timing and schedule

EDIT

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50142367

Im totally confused cause the BBC just stated first is bill itself - and this article, also BEEB says if timing is defested bill will be pulled

????

Do we have one of those very informative charts per chance - with all remaining outcomes and timelines?

sondagefaux · 22-10-2019 05:31PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

most of these poorer areas voted LEAVE.
these areas have been ignored and neglected for decades, certainly since Thatcher destroyed them.
so along comes the referendum and for the first time in ages they have come out and engage with the political process and vote, but the REMAIN side is desperate to ignore/twart their vote.

it's no wonder they are cheesed off.

Many affluent areas had a majority vote in favour of Leave too.

The biggest indicator of voting Leave was age, closely followed by formal educational attainment level.

prawnsambo · 22-10-2019 05:36PM

liamtech wrote: »

Well sky and the Beeb definitely stating that this is the closest of the votes, and is simply to difficult to call - more labor leavers may well vote for this - So yea i guess all eyes on 7pm me thinks

Do we fully know whether a defeat of the first will cancel the second vote?

My understanding is

VOTE ONE - Bill itself putting beginning process of translating deal to law

VOTE TWO - timing and schedule

EDIT

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50142367

Im totally confused cause the BBC just stated first is bill itself - and this article, also BEEB says if timing is defested bill will be pulled

????

Do we have one of those very informative charts per chance - with all remaining outcomes and timelines?

The Bill will then go through committee stage, which is where it will start to attract amendments like flies to excrement. So the programme vote is important as it cuts short the amount of time available for this. Hence the threat to pull the bill if the programme doesn't go through.

Spanish Eyes · 22-10-2019 05:38PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Many affluent areas had a majority vote in favour of Leave too.

The biggest indicator of voting Leave was age, closely followed by formal educational attainment level.

Eh, there were disaffected ignored in so called poorer areas voting to Leave too, you know.... in the hope things might improve for them.

Unfortunately the Parties that gave them an austerity kicking do not care about the great unwashed At All, and will continue to kick them when they are down. They don't care.

Sad times for the aspirations of those people, and everyone else, it has to be said. (I sound like Marian Finucane there).

Spanish Eyes · 22-10-2019 05:42PM

Well if the progamme vote is passed, it will be a fait accompli now, kind of like the opposite to filibustering to oppose it.

That MPs could actually vote for such a thing is beyond me now. But why am I surprised?

I place my trust in the Lords. They won't stand for this bullsh!t. I hope anyway.

But not sure if the Progamme Vote needs Lords approval. Anyone know?

sondagefaux · 22-10-2019 05:54PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I'm tired of saying, the EU won't grant an extension of a few weeks, they'll at least give the three months asked for. And they will (as before) allow an exit on the first day of the month following the passing and ratification of the WA in all stages. It's mad that there are people commenting on Twitter with such authority when they haven't read the salient documents.

The European Parliament will not consent to the Withdrawal Agreement unless and until it has been ratified by the UK.

The consent of the European Parliament can only be granted if a majority of MEPS in a plenary session of the parliament votes to grant consent.

There is a plenary session of the European Parliament on Thursday. The next scheduled plenary session after this week is in mid-November.

It's not going to be possible to call an emergency plenary session next week as too many MEPS are away on visits etc.

Once the EP grants its consent, the European Council can then approve the WA and it can come into force.

If the UK ratification isn't completed by this Thursday, there is no way for the UK to leave with the Withdrawal Agreement in place by 31st October.

If the EU does grant an extension until 31st January, as requested by Johnson, the UK could still leave earlier as Article 50 says that the EU treaties cease to apply to a withdrawing state as soon as a Withdrawal Agreement is concluded, which is possible from mid-November.

sondagefaux · 22-10-2019 05:56PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Eh, there were disaffected ignored in so called poorer areas voting to Leave too, you know.... in the hope things might improve for them.

Unfortunately the Parties that gave them an austerity kicking do not care about the great unwashed At All, and will continue to kick them when they are down. They don't care.

Sad times for the aspirations of those people, and everyone else, it has to be said. (I sound like Marian Finucane there).

My post was in response to an implication that only poorer areas voted majority Leave. That was not the case.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-10-2019 05:57PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The wild animals and circuses act was in relation to 19 animals. Na na na na na 19!

Just for the record ,
- because this is just as important as the future of the 66 million people living in the UK.

Is it Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

Nope. There's six reindeer, four zebra, camels, three raccoons, a fox, a macaw, and a zebu.

Spanish Eyes · 22-10-2019 05:59PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

My post was in response to an implication that only poorer areas voted majority Leave. That was not the case.

OK, they have all been brainwashed so. No one will benefit from Brexit, but of course the post colonial hubris of the UK will continue to think it will, in their arrogance.

It will be a sad and dispiriting outcome for many. But Johnson doesn't care a fig about that.

Joe_ Public · 22-10-2019 06:00PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Just for the record ,
- because this is just as important as the future of the 66 million people living in the UK.

Is it Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!

Nope. There's six reindeer, four zebra, camels, three raccoons, a fox, a macaw, and a zebu.

And travelling circuses will be banned from using the animals. Both of them!

Edit: and doing the math, thats, um, like 150,000 people for each wild animal. Priorities sound just about spot on there.

PropJoe10 · 22-10-2019 06:05PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Well if the progamme vote is passed, it will be a fait accompli now, kind of like the opposite to filibustering to oppose it.

That MPs could actually vote for such a thing is beyond me now. But why am I surprised?

I place my trust in the Lords. They won't stand for this bullsh!t. I hope anyway.

But not sure if the Progamme Vote needs Lords approval. Anyone know?

I believe not, as its just a procedural motion. Only bills to be enacted into law need Lords approval, but someone correct me if I'm wrong.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-10-2019 06:14PM

Labour desperately don't want an election.

They are now saying they are available right now for a deal of between 7 - 9 days for the timetable.

They want to do everything to obstruct without causing an election.

spacecoyote · 22-10-2019 06:22PM

sondagefaux wrote: »

Many affluent areas had a majority vote in favour of Leave too.

The biggest indicator of voting Leave was age, closely followed by formal educational attainment level.

Up to a point with age.

If I remember correctly, outside of 18-24 year olds, those aged around 80+ were the next highest remain voters. Basically the people who lived through WW2 & know how much better a united Europe is.

prawnsambo · 22-10-2019 06:29PM

If the DUP still think the ERG are their friends, well they just might not be...

devnull · 22-10-2019 06:30PM

Has anyone seen this?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/22/operation-yellowhammer-brexit-preparations?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR30N0M9MtSJrOmPtqTh9T3l8I279R7MPhGXhmudeHCmDJA8Ml-LyEMhKp4

Account of what has happened with Yellowhammer and the story behind it, apparently from a civil servant.

marno21 · 22-10-2019 06:37PM

A reminder from Twitter of exactly the motivation behind the PM’s “strategies” at present. It really is the reasoning behind everything we’ve seen to date

https://twitter.com/laboursblackplp/status/1184522427885334528

22-10-2019 06:38PM

Anywhere you can watch brexit debate live?

Sparko · 22-10-2019 06:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Anywhere you can watch brexit debate live?

Sky news flit in and out. Online you can watch here:
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/8b654f4f-2dc1-454b-b881-039faf2da5c4

22-10-2019 06:45PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Anywhere you can watch brexit debate live?

Now...

Generally, just search for 'House of Commons Live' on YT and you should be sorted.

Joe_ Public · 22-10-2019 06:51PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Labour desperately don't want an election.

They are now saying they are available right now for a deal of between 7 - 9 days for the timetable.

They want to do everything to obstruct without causing an election.

Labour are giving them the chance of bringing some common sense into it and having a proper debate and scrutiny of the bill. Everyone and his dog knows that oct 31 deadline cant be met anyway so pm should just drop the act and do the right thing.

Of course tories wont agree to it anyway, so its all just a positioning business. The programme motion will be defeated and just have to see where they go from there.

liamtech · 22-10-2019 06:52PM

think this is the vote coming up soon - this is the last speaker before the vote - anyone wanna call this?

sadly i think this might pass

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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