Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

GM228 · 22-10-2019 02:46PM

BarryD2 wrote: »

Boris goes for the broad picture all the time, that's just a pesky detail.

Pretty certin he also mentioned the European Commission offering an extension, another broad picture statement.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-10-2019 02:48PM

farmchoice wrote: »

if you were right surely they would have voted against letwin on saturday

No because that on it's own was never going to lead to an election.

If the bill is pulled it is highly likely there will be an election before Christmas.

And the tories will be licking their lips at the prospect of explaining to constituents who is responsible for the UK not having left on Oct 31st.

It's a home run.

GM228 · 22-10-2019 02:51PM

I think a GE could throw out a few surprises, in the current climate that is Brexit anything can happen and I'm not so sure about any guarantee as to what would happen to Labour or the Conservatives after a GE to be honest.

Joe_ Public · 22-10-2019 02:52PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No because that on it's own was never going to lead to an election.

If the bill is pulled it is highly likely there will be an election before Christmas.

And the tories will be licking their lips at the prospect of explaining to constituents who is responsible for the UK not having left on Oct 31st.

It's a home run.

No he was totally correct. If the labour mps in leave areas were solely concerned about their seats they'd have voted en masse against letwin. Only 6 did. There were commentators speculating thst there'd be any number up to 30.

Letwin_Larry · 22-10-2019 02:53PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

No because that on it's own was never going to lead to an election.

If the bill is pulled it is highly likely there will be an election before Christmas.

And the tories will be licking their lips at the prospect of explaining to constituents who is responsible for the UK not having left on Oct 31st.

It's a home run.

they have to go for a GE if this fails.
they cant be going around in never-ending circles. it's madness imo.

Joe_ Public · 22-10-2019 02:56PM

GM228 wrote: »

I think a GE could throw out a few surprises, in the current climate that is Brexit anything can happen and I'm not so sure about any guarantee as to what would happen to Labour or the Conservatives after a GE to be honest.

Agree. 2017 was billed as a brexit election yet ended up being as much about other issues so no reason opposition cant hope to achieve that again. Also think they could make capital out of the fact the tories seem determimed to keep no deal on the table.

Zubeneschamali · 22-10-2019 02:56PM

liamtech wrote: »

Those parties opposed to a hard brexit and in favor of a possible second ref - im running out of sympathy for them - they should be able to get the numbers between the SNP Labor and the Lib Dems

Where do you suggest they "should be able to get the numbers" from, exactly?

Labour - 245
SNP - 35
LD - 19

They do not have the numbers, that's why they are the opposition.

murphaph · 22-10-2019 02:56PM

Shelga wrote: »

How can any Labour MP vote for this legislation, if the answer to the question “Will this make my constituents poorer?” is a resounding yes.

I’d rather resign/not run in next election. Let the ignorant masses vote for someone who will just say yes to self-harm for no reason other than staying in their seat.

Yep. You expect it from a Tory but no self respecting Labour MP should vote for economic annihilation no matter what their constituents voted for. They should resign and let their constituents elect a Tory.

GM228 · 22-10-2019 02:58PM

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1186546756709945345?s=19

"But I made it clear to PM Johnson: a no-deal #Brexit will never be our decision"

Think he is signalling an extension will be granted if the WA is not voted in.

And it seems the negotiations will take a lot longer than the transition period allowed for (which is of no real surprise):-

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/22/donald-tusk-indicates-eu-would-grant-brexit-extension

Zubeneschamali · 22-10-2019 02:58PM

murphaph wrote: »

Yep. You expect it from a Tory but no self respecting Labour MP should vote for economic annihilation no matter what their constituents voted for. They should resign and let their constituents elect a Tory.

No, they should run hard and tell the truth, try to change some voters minds.

If their constituents elect a Tory, so be it, they did their best and lost.

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 02:59PM

Tusk saying that EU are likely to grant extension request.

Letwin_Larry · 22-10-2019 03:02PM

GM228 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1186546756709945345?s=19

"But I made it clear to PM Johnson: a no-deal #Brexit will never be our decision"

Think he is signalling an extension will be granted if the WA is not voted in.

dunno he might be signalling the exact opposite. maybe they've had enough and are going to pull the plug on them.

unlikely, but who knows what this circus of clowns has yet to offer us.

briany · 22-10-2019 03:05PM

What happens if Johnson's deal is voted through 'in principle'? Does that mean the UK will definitely leave the EU on 31/10?

Zubeneschamali · 22-10-2019 03:06PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

dunno he might be signalling the exact opposite.

He has already acknowledged receipt of the extension request letter, and now in so many words he says "a no-deal #Brexit will never be our decision"

If the UK do not pass the WAB, Tusk is guaranteeing an extension rather than no-deal crashout at the end of the month.

He is not hinting or signalling - he is saying it in plain English.

Zubeneschamali · 22-10-2019 03:06PM

briany wrote: »

What happens if Johnson's deal is voted through 'in principle'? Does that mean the UK will definitely leave the EU on 31/10?

No.

[Edit] the chance for an In Principle vote was last Saturday, and they didn't have that vote. Instead they voted that the agreement would be accepted if the WA Bill is passed, and now they are going to have debate, amendments and votes on the WAB.

So if the WAB passes all stages this week, the WA is ratified. Then it is over to the EU parliament, who probably don't have time to ratify before 31st, so there'd be a short technical extension and they'd be out mid November.

If the WAB does not pass, either voted down or pulled by the Government, there would need to be a longer extension, maybe to January or June or next October, who knows.

GM228 · 22-10-2019 03:07PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

dunno he might be signalling the exact opposite. maybe they've had enough and are going to pull the plug on them.

unlikely, but who knows what this circus of clowns has yet to offer us.

It's funny when you stand back and look at the shenanigans in the UK, the likes of the prorogation scandal, rushed bills, no impact statements, humbug comments etc and the EU are the ones referred to as the circus of clowns.

liamtech · 22-10-2019 03:08PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Where do you suggest they "should be able to get the numbers" from, exactly?

Labour - 245
SNP - 35
LD - 19

They do not have the numbers, that's why they are the opposition.

Former Tories - 21 who were expelled (and yes i accept that where they will vote is not a forgone conclusion)

Change UK -5

Caroline Lucas

Sylvia Hermon (campaigned remain)

Thats roughly 327 if everyone listed voted with the Opposition/remainer/softbrexit block- and there would undoubtedly be abstentions - and given they are about to get a ECO-United Ireland, The DUP would also be influential with their seats

I get what your saying, just because the Government no longer has a majority, doesnt necessarily mean the Opposition benches do?

But they are CLOSER to a majority than BoJo

Happy to discuss

Letwin_Larry · 22-10-2019 03:10PM

there's no question some in the EU are losing patience,

https://news.sky.com/video/furious-eu-brexit-chief-slams-westminster-11841582

Zubeneschamali · 22-10-2019 03:15PM

liamtech wrote: »

Former Tories - 21 who were expelled (and yes i accept that where they will vote is not a forgone conclusion)

They are mostly still members of the Tory party, just not members of the Parliamentary party. They are also mostly pro Brexit, they were expelled for being anti No Deal, not anti Brexit.

They are unlikely to vote for a referendum or a Customs Union as a bloc, much more likely to vote for a Brexit deal.

Letwin_Larry · 22-10-2019 03:15PM

GM228 wrote: »

It's funny when you stand back and look at the shenanigans in the UK, the likes of the prorogation scandal, rushed bills, no impact statements, humbug comments etc and the EU are the ones referred to as the circus of clowns.

let me clarify please.
i really meant the whole Brexit business and the HoC in particular.

the EU has acted like adults throughout, but even they are growing increasingly frustrated after 3 years of this as the above clip shows.

is_that_so · 22-10-2019 03:16PM

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1186642949876129792

GM228 · 22-10-2019 03:20PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

let me clarify please.
i really meant the whole Brexit business and the HoC in particular.

the EU has acted like adults throughout, but even they are growing increasingly frustrated after 3 years of this as the above clip shows.

My apologies, I read it as if you saying what the EU would offer.

prawnsambo · 22-10-2019 03:25PM

is_that_so wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1186642949876129792

As I'm tired of saying, the EU won't grant an extension of a few weeks, they'll at least give the three months asked for. And they will (as before) allow an exit on the first day of the month following the passing and ratification of the WA in all stages. It's mad that there are people commenting on Twitter with such authority when they haven't read the salient documents.

SeaBreezes · 22-10-2019 04:05PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

dunno he might be signalling the exact opposite. maybe they've had enough and are going to pull the plug on them.

unlikely, but who knows what this circus of clowns has yet to offer us.

Who's 'Us'? In Ireland?

For the last few years the EU has done exactly as it said it would at every turn.

There is absolutely no evidence of any duplicity at any stage..

On the other hand. UK gov? Brexit parties? Brexit campaign? Well, let's just say Led by donkeys have plenty of ammunition...

I feel so incredibly sorry for UK residents. They have the impact assessment for this deal done but won't release it. Just like yellow hammer. Each person in uk 2,000 pounds worse off per annum!!

liamtech · 22-10-2019 04:08PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

As I'm tired of saying, the EU won't grant an extension of a few weeks, they'll at least give the three months asked for. And they will (as before) allow an exit on the first day of the month following the passing and ratification of the WA in all stages. It's mad that there are people commenting on Twitter with such authority when they haven't read the salient documents.

Would you agree that the EU are giving BoJo a chance to get his deal across the line? i suspect if they immediately gave a 3 month extension then there would be no excuse (on either side HOC) for not having an election -

And in the case of the election do you believe JC would actually push for an 'Ill get a better deal (renegotiate)' PLUS referendum - cause that seems to be Labor - Renegotiate and Referendum - would he have a chance in that scenario?

Joe_ Public · 22-10-2019 04:30PM

Is there any hurry on eu to make any immediate announcement? I dont see any. If johnson gets through tonight, then its all on home straight. If he's stymied again, they can see what develops from that, if they get to an election commitment which would make decisiom a lot easier - extension to next june would be my guess. If theres no clear indication of where the process is going, that does make it a bit more difficult.

PropJoe10 · 22-10-2019 04:32PM

Dominic Grieve is a really impressive speaker.

Spanish Eyes · 22-10-2019 04:37PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

Dominic Grieve is a really impressive speaker.

He is indeed, as are many other Tories, like them or not. All of the articulate ones have been sacked though. Typical scorched earth policy now. Left with the idiots like M Francois and JR Mogg etc. of course we are.

In response to a post I made yesterday about Johnson's rather tough prospects in his Uxbridge constituency, many mentioned that J would be parachuted into Grieve's. Honestly the machinations going on now are just so absolutely personal and awful. How Tory voters cannot see through this is mind boggling. But anyway, I am whistling in the wind I suppose at this stage.

PropJoe10 · 22-10-2019 04:41PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

He is indeed, as are many other Tories, like them or not. All of the articulate ones have been sacked though. Typical scorched earth policy now. Left with the idiots like M Francois and JR Mogg etc. of course we are.

In response to a post I made yesterday about Johnson's rather tough prospects in his Uxbridge constituency, many mentioned that J would be parachuted into Grieve's. Honestly the machinations going on now are just so absolutely personal and awful. How Tory voters cannot see through this is mind boggling. But anyway, I am whistling in the wind I suppose at this stage.

I read something about that, pretty poor form and indicative of the way that the Tory party is developing, but not surprising. Interesting to hear that Grieve is voting against both the bill and the program motion later - wonder will many other moderate ex-Tories join him. Especially against the program motion which is ridiculous and disrespectful to MPs at best.

Junkyard Tom · 22-10-2019 04:43PM

I think it was Ken Maginnis who sold the GFA to his Unionist colleagues by claiming that every time they rejected a deal what they returned to was worse.

The man had a point it seems.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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