Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I have wondered whether irish support for the mercosur deal could be a price to pay for EU backing. Varadkar has said they wont back it without further reassurances so remains to be seen. I could be wrong, just a feeling i have.

Mercosur is dead, the Austrians killed it.

After all this is over Bertie reckons we will have a united Ireland sooner rather than later. So more trouble and strife in the north. Looks like we will have to build up the army and buy in weapons to keep the loyalists/unionists in check. There is no way they will go peacefully into United Ireland.

NotToScale wrote: »

I find the assumption that Northern Ireland would simply be a massive economic drain somewhat naive and also services like the NI NHS aren't going to just suddenly stop. Health spending in the Republic is actually significantly higher per capita than the UK. So, assuming the NI system remains largely as is (very likely) it suddenly becomes more resourced. The issues with healthcare in the Republic are largely legacy structural ones, not financial. If anything we could end up rolling out something far more like the NHS, but potentially better.

You're also very unlikely to be looking at NI or Ireland generally being entirely cut off from the UK. In reality either as those links will be preserved in many ways and I really cannot see the UK turning into North Korean style isolationism. Sanity will have to return eventually and a practical, realistic arrangement will be arrived at. They can only go on attempting to shoot themselves in the feet for so long.

I find your optimism that it would be anything other than an enormous economic drain incredibly naive! NI has been in the EU for over 4 decades, they've had peace for over 20 years and the region is still a complete basket case, economically. This surely has to be in large part because of two moronic main parties who are obsessed with tribalism and getting one up on each other, rather than looking out for their citizens in terms of developing infrastructure and making it a favourable place to do business. This isn't going to change any time soon- they can't even govern together. The fact that NI has been without a government for almost 3 years is disgraceful.

The only positive is that the cohort of people who identify as neither unionist nor nationalist is growing. When this chunk becomes big enough- in 20-30 years, maybe I'd give reunification more thought.

As it is, it looks like we may be forced into taking them on a lot sooner than that. In those circumstances, I would be hoping that any NI vote on reunification passes by over 55%, and that every single aspect is considered as carefully in advance as it possibly can be. Even then, I can't see myself being anything other than extremely reluctant.

The UK Brexiters should be ashamed of themselves- the selfishness of not giving Ireland a second thought honestly disgusts me.

Not exactly Brexit but semi related, is Same Sex Marriage and Abortion now legal in NI from tomorrow?

volchitsa wrote: »

I'm not so sure they matter that much any more - the days when loyalist paramilitaries were able to cause disruption like the loyalist strikes in the mid seventies is long gone. Without their state backers, they're no more powerful now than the latest IRA offshoots.

Same for possible terrorist activities: they were only ever able to carry those out thanks to serious help from supporters in the RUC and elsewhere. I don't believe they would have that support now, given how poorly the DUP has played the amazingly strong hand it was given in 2017. All the more so if the UK economy is seen to be suffering from Brexit, and if Scotland is restive.

I'd agree with this the likes of the UDA and IRA aren't so much terroist/paramilitary organisations anymore but little more than organised criminal gangs hanging on to the old days. The IRA dont have the funds ilike then expecially after the whole September 11th thing and the UDA were only ever viable because of British State support and collusion. Neither side has the support of the wider communities either now they wont get anywhere near as effective as back then.

A United Ireland will ultimately be a result of anything that happens with Brexit unless it's cancelled and even then if Scotland becomes independent which is likely considering the way their MPs are being treated as well as the whole attitude of Westminster towards Scotland in general then the UK is finished all that will be left is the Republic of Scotland, United Ireland and the Kingdom of Wangland! (unless the welsh decide to nope out too!)

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Mercosur is dead, the Austrians killed it.

Actually unfinished, no final text yet but they did vote to reject the draft. Could be a couple of years at least before a final text goes anywhere near a vote.

RobMc59 wrote: »

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

Because the Brexit overlords plan to overrun the UK economy with cheap labour from the subcontinent and other countries citizens they hope to give visas to in return for doing trade deals with.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

If thats the damage it does to fruit picking, imagine the long term damage it'll do to the nhs.

The quoted amount left in the fields is a bit meaningless when they don't tell you the overall size of the harvest.

54and56 wrote: »

Quick question, why didn't BoJo go ahead with the meaningful vote on Saturday despite losing the Letwin vote? It's not like he has a lot of days to spare if he really wants to deliver on his promise to have the WA done and dusted by Oct 31st!!

It would have been indicative only and had no effect at all as the Letwin amendment states that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill should be passed first before they move on to the vote for the Withdrawal Agreement itself. The WA Bill needs to go through a few debates, sent to the House of Lords for their part as well and then back to the HoC for a third vote before it passes.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Certainly struck me as a bit odd to hear tory after tory bang on about the "will of The People" in the hoc yesterday as a great many people expressed their frustration only a few metres away outside. They have basically subsumed "the people" as their trademark, as if they speak for everybody, the whole United kingdom, not just the 17m who voted leave. "The People" want it done, apparently, so it must be done.

Similar with SAmmy Wilson yesterday talking about Northern Ireland and what it wants and needs. Like he is qualified to speak for all the people of the North.

RobMc59 wrote: »

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

Has the UK got full employment or are the locals too high and mighty to go pick fruit?