Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo · 20-10-2019 12:16PM

I'm genuinely taken aback how much Europe has rowed in behind Ireland's position. Might have to pay for it down the road, we owe them. But they have been resolute and unshakeable on not putting a border on the island of Ireland.

Britain has never given a crap about Ireland. The EU has held them to account. They have forced them to take responsibility for Northern Ireland. I hope all the people living in the border counties remember this loyalty if NI is given a free vote on an EU in/out referendum.

Seth Brundle · 20-10-2019 12:20PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I'm genuinely taken aback how much Europe has rowed in behind Ireland's position. Might have to pay for it down the road, we owe them.

We owe them nothing. They stood firm to protect the integrity of the union. If they let a small country get damaged with no intervention to help then all other small member states would question the value ofbrheir membership.
Don't get me wrong on how great bit is but the EU were never going to side with a dysfunctional leaver over a loyal member state.

The high horse brigade · 20-10-2019 12:26PM

We'll be back to the EU looking for financial aid when we get a United Ireland. This is what they expect and they have dealt with similar in the unification of Germany

Joe_ Public · 20-10-2019 12:32PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I'm genuinely taken aback how much Europe has rowed in behind Ireland's position. Might have to pay for it down the road, we owe them. But they have been resolute and unshakeable on not putting a border on the island of Ireland.

Britain has never given a crap about Ireland. The EU has held them to account. They have forced them to take responsibility for Northern Ireland. I hope all the people living in the border counties remember this loyalty if NI is given a free vote on an EU in/out referendum.

I have wondered whether irish support for the mercosur deal could be a price to pay for EU backing. Varadkar has said they wont back it without further reassurances so remains to be seen. I could be wrong, just a feeling i have.

Guy:Incognito · 20-10-2019 12:33PM

liamtech wrote: »

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

But what about people who would only vote leave if it definitely wasnt a no deal? That makes a huge difference.

The leave/remain vote has to be the 2nd one with a definite decision already made on what leave actually means.

J Mysterio · 20-10-2019 12:38PM

UK politics is bloody insufferable.

The ink on the 2nd deal negotiated with the EU has barely dried, and already people are thinking to just add ammendments to the deal to make it more palatable, including sensible commentators like Ian Dunt.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1185878974448177152

Bill Cash, one of the most extreme EU haters to have ever lived, gave his support to the deal in the HOC yesterday on the proviso that various elements of the deal can be amended.

What the hell is the story with this? The UK fundamentally don't get it. The EU and the UK have negotiated this deal, it is for them to ratify it, not continue negotiations with themselves on what was produced. It's infuriating.

The high horse brigade · 20-10-2019 12:41PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

UK politics is bloody insufferable.

The ink on the 2nd deal negotiated with the EU has barely dried, and already people are thinking to just add ammendments to the deal to make it more palatable, including sensible commentators like Ian Dunt.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1185878974448177152

Bill Cash, one of the most extreme EU haters to have ever lived, gave his support to the deal in the HOC yesterday on the proviso that various elements of the deal can be amended.

What the hell is the story with this? The UK fundamentally don't get it. The EU and the UK have negotiated this deal, it is for them to ratify it, not continue negotiations with themselves on what was produced. It's infuriating.

They need to be told by the EU, no extension, vote for the only deal that's on the table.

SJW Lover · 20-10-2019 12:41PM

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I'm genuinely taken aback how much Europe has rowed in behind Ireland's position. Might have to pay for it down the road, we owe them.

They still owe us. Plenty.

robinph · 20-10-2019 12:42PM

liamtech wrote: »

No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

Until leave is defined, as in the deal Johnson has come up with, a leave v remain choice is stupid. Having an undefined choice that means whatever each person wants is how we've ended up where we are now.

Letwin_Larry · 20-10-2019 12:43PM

The high horse brigade wrote: »

We'll be back to the EU looking for financial aid when we get a United Ireland. This is what they expect and they have dealt with similar in the unification of Germany

there will be no united ireland anytime soon (next 50 years at least) the Remainers aka Unionists will see to that.

briany · 20-10-2019 12:45PM

Wait, wait, wait, hold on. An all-UK customs union? And it might get through? 2018 called, and it's rather angry.

Strazdas · 20-10-2019 12:48PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

We owe them nothing. They stood firm to protect the integrity of the union. If they let a small country get damaged with no intervention to help then all other small member states would question the value ofbrheir membership.
Don't get me wrong on how great bit is but the EU were never going to side with a dysfunctional leaver over a loyal member state.

Yes, I think they would also have stood up for a Denmark or a Finland or a Portugal in a similar (hypothetical) scenario. It's a good example though of how the EU can work very successfully.

The high horse brigade · 20-10-2019 12:49PM

Letwin_Larry wrote: »

there will be no united ireland anytime soon (next 50 years at least) the Remainers aka Unionists will see to that.

It'll happen within 10 years, Brexit has brought it forward.

Letwin_Larry · 20-10-2019 12:51PM

The high horse brigade wrote: »

It'll happen within 10 years, Brexit has brought it forward.

not a chance

Guy:Incognito · 20-10-2019 12:51PM

The high horse brigade wrote: »

It'll happen within 10 years, Brexit has brought it forward.

Again though, why? Why are we jumping straight in to a united Ireland?

It's our very own Brexit . All the talk of how everything will be grand, lets just do it with no discussion of the downsides.

Strazdas · 20-10-2019 12:52PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

The government simply cant offer a frickin No Deal to the electorate, its the height of irresponsibility.

The UK have only ever mentioned it as a threat.

Its like asking someone 'would you take this cyanide tablet?', when you know it will kill them, but they think it's largely a good idea but with some possible mild side affects.

'No Deal' is not even a legal concept as it involves the ripping up of all existing treaties, agreements and trade deals. I can't see how this could be put on a ballot paper for people to vote on.

NotToScale · 20-10-2019 12:55PM

The high horse brigade wrote: »

We'll be back to the EU looking for financial aid when we get a United Ireland. This is what they expect and they have dealt with similar in the unification of Germany

I don't think that it's reasonable to compare Northern Ireland and East Germany. While there are some underlying socioeconomic issues in the North and it's reliant on public investment from the UK, it's not a communist command economy. There's also been decades of completely free trade between the Northern Ireland and the Republic and in terms of the their socioeconomic models, expectations of democracy, human rights, freedoms and do on they're actually both highly developed western democracies.

Reintegration of Germany was a HUGE task as you were basically trying to interconnect a very large Eastern Bloc communist country with a very definitely Western capitalist counterpart.

You'd have some political issues and tensions in Ireland with the loyalist community and some minor practical issues integrating systems or running them in parallel for some services but for the vast majority of things the two jurisdictions are extremely similar.

Northern Ireland could also possibly benefit and prosper from suddenly having the same economic and FDI friendly environment that the Republic has has evolved.

I find the assumption that Northern Ireland would simply be a massive economic drain somewhat naive and also services like the NI NHS aren't going to just suddenly stop. Health spending in the Republic is actually significantly higher per capita than the UK. So, assuming the NI system remains largely as is (very likely) it suddenly becomes more resourced. The issues with healthcare in the Republic are largely legacy structural ones, not financial. If anything we could end up rolling out something far more like the NHS, but potentially better.

You're also very unlikely to be looking at NI or Ireland generally being entirely cut off from the UK. In reality either as those links will be preserved in many ways and I really cannot see the UK turning into North Korean style isolationism. Sanity will have to return eventually and a practical, realistic arrangement will be arrived at. They can only go on attempting to shoot themselves in the feet for so long.

Joe_ Public · 20-10-2019 12:56PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

There should be no extension untill there is a vote on the deal, but Letwin has immediately obfustucated things. It would have been better to have fixed any loopholes in the Benn amendment than introduce Letwin.

Letwin seems to draw things out interminibly and give MPs the impression they can edit the agreement in all areas. The EU want the UK to vote on the deal, and instead they immediately decide against and vote to analyze all the legislation. There's a fundamental arrogance in how the HOC is operating in relation to the EU.

Its a fair point. Attaching a CU amendment at this stage seems a step too far. But bottom line is letwin was only necessary because the UK pm is a liar who cant be trusted. Same with benn. Otherwise a simple vote on deal could have been held by now and onto next stage. Letwin and other mps did what they had to do imo, no question about that.

Strazdas · 20-10-2019 12:58PM

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Again though, why? Why are we jumping straight in to a united Ireland?

It's our very own Brexit . All the talk of how everything will be grand, lets just do it with no discussion of the downsides.

Varadkar has said repeatedly that Irish unification would have to be done very slowly - a two or three year build up to a referendum with meticulous planning for what happens if it is passed (the complete opposite of what happened with the Brexit shambles).

People are ignoring the elephant in the room that is Scottish independence though. If that happens, it is game over for NI. There's not a hope they could remain in the union long term if the UK is already breaking up. I predict they would be out within two or three years of Scottish independence.

The high horse brigade · 20-10-2019 12:59PM

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Again though, why? Why are we jumping straight in to a united Ireland?

It's our very own Brexit . All the talk of how everything will be grand, lets just do it with no discussion of the downsides.

Nobody said we should rush into it without discussion and planning. It's going to happen, we need to plan or we'll end up in the same boat not knowing what we want

Joe_ Public · 20-10-2019 01:01PM

A very reasonable road for them to take is the citizens assembly path, or a variation of it, but it gets so little traction among commentators you cant see it ever being a serious proposition.

Guy:Incognito · 20-10-2019 01:03PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Varadkar has said repeatedly that Irish unification would have to be done very slowly - a two or three year build up to a referendum with meticulous planning for what happens if it is passed (the complete opposite of what happened with the Brexit shambles).

People are ignoring the elephant in the room that is Scottish independence though. If that happens, it is game over for NI. There's not a hope they could remain in the union long term if the UK is already breaking up. I predict they would be out within two or three years of Scottish independence.

Let NI go independent then too. See how they cope for a while as an actually country, then look at the possibility of unification if its what both countries want.

The high horse brigade wrote: »

Nobody said we should rush into it without discussion and planning. It's going to happen, we need to plan or we'll end up in the same boat not knowing what we want

All the talk is just relatively short term and as if its a straight forward vote and everyone agrees.

Capt'n Midnight · 20-10-2019 01:15PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

There's no way 'leave without a deal' should be put forward as an option.

It should. To split the Leave vote
Because otherwise it's an economic downturn which means no money for the NHS or pensions or the MoD. Also means immigration from Eastern Europe will be replaced by immigration from Asia. (see the stats from May's term in the Home Office )

Leave with no deal - recession

Leave with the Boris deal - recession in two years unless the UK caves in on to EU terms that allows services to have access to EU markets.

Remain - the only option that allows the foreign owned manufacturing companies to ramp up investment in the UK to former levels

Be interesting if any of the car makers have told the government that if there's a remain they'll announce multi-billion investments that the government can take credit for ?

Joe_ Public · 20-10-2019 01:23PM

Dominic Grieve has said he thinks no deal should be on ballot so it does have some remain mp support. Though im not sure can you have something on a ballot that hadnt got through the house and i seriously doubt it would ever agree to it.

FrancieBrady · 20-10-2019 01:33PM

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Let NI go independent then too. See how they cope for a while as an actually country, then look at the possibility of unification if its what both countries want.

Why in hell would you do that. We have 100 year's of hard evidence that it cannot govern itself because of the artificially constructed bias and an ideology that is trenchant in blocking any concessions to the minority population.

Nonsense idea and wholly irresponsible.

RobMc59 · 20-10-2019 01:40PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why in hell would you do that. We have 100 year's of hard evidence that it cannot govern itself because of the artificially constructed bias and an ideology that is trenchant in blocking any concessions to the minority population.

Nonsense idea and wholly irresponsible.

Even some hardened unionists admit the demographics are changing and people`s political views are moving towards the centre-why can`t the moderate people of NI have the chance to run their own show?

NotToScale · 20-10-2019 01:42PM

I'm not sure a citizen's assembly would work in the UK right now. Ireland manages them fairly well because we've a very long tradition of proportional representation based democracy and consensus building politics is what defines the political system here.

The Westminster system is the complete reverse, being entirely about simple majority, grabbing power and holding it when you have it. It's polarised even during normal times but at present the society is utterly vexed with Brexit and unable to agree anything.

How would a citizen's assembly work in that context? You're unlikely to generate rational discussion and you would have endless critiques from the tabloids and probably tabloids even focusing on individual participants. Bear in mind you'd tabloids attacking judges and the legitimacy of the courts and of parliament.

I think realistically this has to be resolved by parliament before anyone goes down the route of trying to addresses the toxic divides that have emerged or been highlighted in British politics and society. That's a decade or more of work and it's not going to resolve Brexit.

If they reran any referendum, it would need to be sure of achieving a significant majority in favour of a sensible path or you're just back to this mess again.

They got the worst possible outcome in the last referendum - a narrow minority in favour of something that they never considered the practicalities of delivering and a question that was so broad that the answer keeps getting redefined. I would doubt very many people actually voted for a no deal Brexit. When you look back at the debates, there were all sorts of promises of business as usual and what looked like even staying in the customs union. That's been slowly but surely tipped into angrier and angrier nationalism, to the point that we are were we are.

FrancieBrady · 20-10-2019 01:43PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Even some hardened unionists admit the demographics are changing and people`s political views are moving towards the centre-why can`t the moderate people of NI have the chance to run their own show?

Are LGBT people, moderates? Those who want parity of esteem and language rights?

Have they been trying?

What about Unionism in the last 3 years tells you that they are willing to put their 'veto' years behind them? Jeffery Donaldson specifically bemoaned a Unionist spurning the chance to have a veto only last week.
The place is in the care of an international agreement for a REASON.

Strazdas · 20-10-2019 01:45PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Dominic Grieve has said he thinks no deal should be on ballot so it does have some remain mp support. Though im not sure can you have something on a ballot that hadnt got through the house and i seriously doubt it would ever agree to it.

No, he's actually proposing Johnson's deal vs Remain on the ballot paper.

I don't think he could possibly stand over No Deal being one of the options.

Joe_ Public · 20-10-2019 01:51PM

Strazdas wrote: »

No, he's actually proposing Johnson's deal vs Remain on the ballot paper.

I don't think he could possibly stand over No Deal being one of the options.

I heard him say it on a bbc interview only a couple of weeks ago but not saying its his official position or he might reconsider it. But he definitely said it.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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