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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Quin_Dub

This is the eleventh incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread,

Same warnings etc still apply:

As we are approaching the critical end of March October 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:
Insults directed at popular figures are not acceptable in this forum
Please do not post memes, videos or comedy links here
Please do not be uncivil to other posters
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boggerman1

Tea Shock wrote: »

Only caught the last bit of it but sounds like Michael McDowell did a really good job of putting Andrew Bridgen in his place on the Marion Funnicsne show just now!

Bridgen displays all the signs of someone who has swallowed hook,line and sinker the so called benefits of the sunny uplands.the arrogance of the Tories that think the EU will still give in to them despite the evidence of the last 3 yrs.

Capt'n Midnight

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Again though, why? Why are we jumping straight in to a united Ireland?

It's our very own Brexit . All the talk of how everything will be grand, lets just do it with no discussion of the downsides.

The bottom line is that the six counties can be weaned off the subvention if they get the same investment as down here. And with wages less than here it would get the investment. It wouldn't be easy but it is doable.

It's crazy to think that the A5 is more likely to get upgraded than the A6.

Letwin_Larry

RobMc59 wrote: »

Even some hardened unionists admit the demographics are changing and people`s political views are moving towards the centre-why can`t the moderate people of NI have the chance to run their own show?

i agree. let them off. most people on both of these islands would sigh a collective sigh of relief imo.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I have wondered whether irish support for the mercosur deal could be a price to pay for EU backing. Varadkar has said they wont back it without further reassurances so remains to be seen. I could be wrong, just a feeling i have.

Mercosur is dead, the Austrians killed it.

Capt'n Midnight

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

Let NI go independent then too. See how they cope for a while as an actually country, then look at the possibility of unification if its what both countries want.

But to do it fairly you'd have to let local areas decide which way to jump because you'd remove the €9Bn a year from the UK and setup a hard border.

Look at the maps of the Brexit vote. Or the elections.

South Down and everything west of the Bann apart from the coast, doesn't leave much of a hinterland for a city the size of Belfast.

Singapore on the Lagan ?

It's more likely that an independent DUP controlled state would become a theocracy with dissenting Catholics being forced to work in the salt mines, except the god fearing people of Carrickfergus wouldn't stand for that sort of thing.

Fr. Pat Noise

After all this is over Bertie reckons we will have a united Ireland sooner rather than later. So more trouble and strife in the north. Looks like we will have to build up the army and buy in weapons to keep the loyalists/unionists in check. There is no way they will go peacefully into United Ireland.

WomanSkirtFan8

Strazdas wrote: »

Varadkar has said repeatedly that Irish unification would have to be done very slowly - a two or three year build up to a referendum with meticulous planning for what happens if it is passed (the complete opposite of what happened with the Brexit shambles).

People are ignoring the elephant in the room that is Scottish independence though. If that happens, it is game over for NI. There's not a hope they could remain in the union long term if the UK is already breaking up. I predict they would be out within two or three years of Scottish independence.

Varadkar's right about a UI. It will have to be done extremely slowly and carefully as there is so much detail to be worked out with everyone up there.

Shelga

NotToScale wrote: »

I find the assumption that Northern Ireland would simply be a massive economic drain somewhat naive and also services like the NI NHS aren't going to just suddenly stop. Health spending in the Republic is actually significantly higher per capita than the UK. So, assuming the NI system remains largely as is (very likely) it suddenly becomes more resourced. The issues with healthcare in the Republic are largely legacy structural ones, not financial. If anything we could end up rolling out something far more like the NHS, but potentially better.

You're also very unlikely to be looking at NI or Ireland generally being entirely cut off from the UK. In reality either as those links will be preserved in many ways and I really cannot see the UK turning into North Korean style isolationism. Sanity will have to return eventually and a practical, realistic arrangement will be arrived at. They can only go on attempting to shoot themselves in the feet for so long.

I find your optimism that it would be anything other than an enormous economic drain incredibly naive! NI has been in the EU for over 4 decades, they've had peace for over 20 years and the region is still a complete basket case, economically. This surely has to be in large part because of two moronic main parties who are obsessed with tribalism and getting one up on each other, rather than looking out for their citizens in terms of developing infrastructure and making it a favourable place to do business. This isn't going to change any time soon- they can't even govern together. The fact that NI has been without a government for almost 3 years is disgraceful.

The only positive is that the cohort of people who identify as neither unionist nor nationalist is growing. When this chunk becomes big enough- in 20-30 years, maybe I'd give reunification more thought.

As it is, it looks like we may be forced into taking them on a lot sooner than that. In those circumstances, I would be hoping that any NI vote on reunification passes by over 55%, and that every single aspect is considered as carefully in advance as it possibly can be. Even then, I can't see myself being anything other than extremely reluctant.

The UK Brexiters should be ashamed of themselves- the selfishness of not giving Ireland a second thought honestly disgusts me.

volchitsa

Fr. Pat Noise wrote: »

After all this is over Bertie reckons we will have a united Ireland sooner rather than later. So more trouble and strife in the north. Looks like we will have to build up the army and buy in weapons to keep the loyalists/unionists in check. There is no way they will go peacefully into United Ireland.

I'm not so sure they matter that much any more - the days when loyalist paramilitaries were able to cause disruption like the loyalist strikes in the mid seventies is long gone. Without their state backers, they're no more powerful now than the latest IRA offshoots.

Same for possible terrorist activities: they were only ever able to carry those out thanks to serious help from supporters in the RUC and elsewhere. I don't believe they would have that support now, given how poorly the DUP has played the amazingly strong hand it was given in 2017. All the more so if the UK economy is seen to be suffering from Brexit, and if Scotland is restive.

Roanmore

Not exactly Brexit but semi related, is Same Sex Marriage and Abortion now legal in NI from tomorrow?

marno21

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The bottom line is that the six counties can be weaned off the subvention if they get the same investment as down here. And with wages less than here it would get the investment. It wouldn't be easy but it is doable.

It's crazy to think that the A5 is more likely to get upgraded than the A6.

37km of A6 upgrades ongoing at present with 5km just open.

Meanwhile the A5 won't start until next year at the earliest, of course it's due yet another legal objection to slow it down even further.

Infini

volchitsa wrote: »

I'm not so sure they matter that much any more - the days when loyalist paramilitaries were able to cause disruption like the loyalist strikes in the mid seventies is long gone. Without their state backers, they're no more powerful now than the latest IRA offshoots.

Same for possible terrorist activities: they were only ever able to carry those out thanks to serious help from supporters in the RUC and elsewhere. I don't believe they would have that support now, given how poorly the DUP has played the amazingly strong hand it was given in 2017. All the more so if the UK economy is seen to be suffering from Brexit, and if Scotland is restive.

I'd agree with this the likes of the UDA and IRA aren't so much terroist/paramilitary organisations anymore but little more than organised criminal gangs hanging on to the old days. The IRA dont have the funds ilike then expecially after the whole September 11th thing and the UDA were only ever viable because of British State support and collusion. Neither side has the support of the wider communities either now they wont get anywhere near as effective as back then.

A United Ireland will ultimately be a result of anything that happens with Brexit unless it's cancelled and even then if Scotland becomes independent which is likely considering the way their MPs are being treated as well as the whole attitude of Westminster towards Scotland in general then the UK is finished all that will be left is the Republic of Scotland, United Ireland and the Kingdom of Wangland!

(unless the welsh decide to nope out too!)

BorneTobyWilde

How can the likes of Boris argue that the people should be the ones to decide, yet argue too against letting them decide now the facts are known.
If there is a another peoples vote then the whole of N.I AND Scotland need to this time break themselves away from Emmerdale and go out and vote.

is_that_so

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Mercosur is dead, the Austrians killed it.

Actually unfinished, no final text yet but they did vote to reject the draft. Could be a couple of years at least before a final text goes anywhere near a vote.

Joe_ Public

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

How can the likes of Boris argue that the people should be the ones to decide, yet argue too against letting them decide now the facts are known.
If there is a another peoples vote then the whole of N.I AND Scotland need to this time break themselves away from Emmerdale and go out and vote.

Certainly struck me as a bit odd to hear tory after tory bang on about the "will of The People" in the hoc yesterday as a great many people expressed their frustration only a few metres away outside. They have basically subsumed "the people" as their trademark, as if they speak for everybody, the whole United kingdom, not just the 17m who voted leave. "The People" want it done, apparently, so it must be done.

RobMc59

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

Joe_ Public

RobMc59 wrote: »

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

If thats the damage it does to fruit picking, imagine the long term damage it'll do to the nhs.

prunudo

RobMc59 wrote: »

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

Because the Brexit overlords plan to overrun the UK economy with cheap labour from the subcontinent and other countries citizens they hope to give visas to in return for doing trade deals with.

Igotadose

prunudo wrote: »

Because the Brexit overlords plan to overrun the UK economy with cheap labour from the subcontinent and other countries citizens they hope to give visas to in return for doing trade deals with.

Personally think Brexit's kind of like the blind men and the elephant; everyone can touch a different part of it and have a different idea what it is, but no one can see the whole thing.

Sure, cheap labor might come from elsewhere, or in the UK. And sure, the NHS might be gutted. Or not. Or, worst of all, in some wildly unanticipated way. It's why listening to Brexiters yammer on and on about how great it'll be to (insert your favorite false Brexit claim here), when they're called up on it, they have no answers - because no one really knows what will happen in the long run. Maybe like JRM said in 50 years there'll be benefits.

But what all this screams, is that the entire thing was unnecessary and at best, will have neutral impact, but not positive. Unnecessary, foolish, negative impacting and full of unanticipated impacts.

MrMusician18

Joe_ Public wrote: »

If thats the damage it does to fruit picking, imagine the long term damage it'll do to the nhs.

The quoted amount left in the fields is a bit meaningless when they don't tell you the overall size of the harvest.

54and56

Quick question, why didn't BoJo go ahead with the meaningful vote on Saturday despite losing the Letwin vote? It's not like he has a lot of days to spare if he really wants to deliver on his promise to have the WA done and dusted by Oct 31st!!

Enzokk

54and56 wrote: »

Quick question, why didn't BoJo go ahead with the meaningful vote on Saturday despite losing the Letwin vote? It's not like he has a lot of days to spare if he really wants to deliver on his promise to have the WA done and dusted by Oct 31st!!

It would have been indicative only and had no effect at all as the Letwin amendment states that the Withdrawal Agreement Bill should be passed first before they move on to the vote for the Withdrawal Agreement itself. The WA Bill needs to go through a few debates, sent to the House of Lords for their part as well and then back to the HoC for a third vote before it passes.

Joe_ Public

prunudo wrote: »

Because the Brexit overlords plan to overrun the UK economy with cheap labour from the subcontinent and other countries citizens they hope to give visas to in return for doing trade deals with.

That may be right but still doesnt strike me as particularly coherent. As it stands figures show the uk has more of an issue with immigration from outside the eu than inside. So to address a problem caused by EU migrants leaving, they'll attract even more cheap labour from the subcontinent?! I didnt think thats what they meant when they talked about taking back control.

trashcan

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Certainly struck me as a bit odd to hear tory after tory bang on about the "will of The People" in the hoc yesterday as a great many people expressed their frustration only a few metres away outside. They have basically subsumed "the people" as their trademark, as if they speak for everybody, the whole United kingdom, not just the 17m who voted leave. "The People" want it done, apparently, so it must be done.

Similar with SAmmy Wilson yesterday talking about Northern Ireland and what it wants and needs. Like he is qualified to speak for all the people of the North.

Joe_ Public

trashcan wrote: »

Similar with SAmmy Wilson yesterday talking about Northern Ireland and what it wants and needs. Like he is qualified to speak for all the people of the North.

Somewhere around 47% of unionists voted remain i think which implies sammy maybe speaks for a quarter of the population. Though given he's a staunch remainer now, i'm not sure how or if that changes!

Dyr

prunudo wrote: »

Because the Brexit overlords plan to overrun the UK economy with cheap labour from the subcontinent and other countries citizens they hope to give visas to in return for doing trade deals with.

imagine an unscrupulous government flooding a country with cheap labour from outside the EU, it could never happen here

Hold on a minute...

prawnsambo

Bambi wrote: »

imagine an unscrupulous government flooding a country with cheap labour from outside the EU, it could never happen here

Hold on a minute...

Imagine if posters all made statements here without any backup.

Hold on a minute.

roosterman71

RobMc59 wrote: »

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

Has the UK got full employment or are the locals too high and mighty to go pick fruit?

prawnsambo

roosterman71 wrote: »

Has the UK got full employment or are the locals too high and mighty to go pick fruit?

I'd say it's a bit of that and also about population density near the farms.

[Deleted User]

RobMc59 wrote: »

How can johnson and co justify his toxic approach to brexit when things like this are happening as a result:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html

So do you think that the exploitation of cheap foreign labour is a good idea!
Not really an EU thing, more a result of globalisation and the exploitation that it has allowed.