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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • #7682
    Tired Gardener
    Closed Accounts Posts: 456 ✭✭Tired Gardener


    A second referendum would be ideal, I do suspect that a good chunk of those who voted for Leave would just spoil their ballot paper as they feel betrayed. There was a recent trend in Brexiteer's spoiling their ballot papers in local elections if I recall correctly... not to sound judgemental, but the average Brexiteer isn't the sharpest tool in the toolbox.

    The second referendum should have 3 options:

    Remain,
    Leave without a deal,
    Leave with Johnson's deal.

    I imagine this would be a majority win for Remain, which as an Englishman living in Ireland who voted Remain in the previous referendum suits me fine!


  • #7683
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Tired Gardener wrote: »
    A second referendum would be ideal, I do suspect that a good chunk of those who voted for Leave would just spoil their ballot paper as they feel betrayed. There was a recent trend in Brexiteer's spoiling their ballot papers in local elections if I recall correctly... not to sound judgemental, but the average Brexiteer isn't the sharpest tool in the toolbox.

    The second referendum should have 3 options:

    Remain,
    Leave without a deal,
    Leave with Johnson's deal.

    I imagine this would be a majority win for Remain, which as an Englishman living in Ireland who voted Remain in the previous referendum suits me fine!

    That would be great but its fantasy to think you'd engineer a scenario with 2 leave options. Recipe for chaos imho.


  • #7684
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Tired Gardener wrote: »
    A second referendum would be ideal, I do suspect that a good chunk of those who voted for Leave would just spoil their ballot paper as they feel betrayed. There was a recent trend in Brexiteer's spoiling their ballot papers in local elections if I recall correctly... not to sound judgemental, but the average Brexiteer isn't the sharpest tool in the toolbox.

    The second referendum should have 3 options:

    Remain,
    Leave without a deal,
    Leave with Johnson's deal.

    I imagine this would be a majority win for Remain, which as an Englishman living in Ireland who voted Remain in the previous referendum suits me fine!

    There's no way 'leave without a deal' should be put forward as an option.


  • #7685
    54and56
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭54and56


    fr336 wrote: »
    Sky News saying that one amendment put in front of house this week could be for a permanent customs union for all of UK. Which the DUP could back. And Boris would be screwed.

    This would be the sweetest of sweetest outcomes. I can't see it really happening though but for sure the DUP will use it for maximum leverage.


  • #7686
    liamtech
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Guy:Incognito wrote: »
    They need 2 votes though.

    First on the deal and then on deal V remain. Rerunning the referendum without a clear line on what leave means is just the same thing again.

    It needs to be clear that leave is this exact deal (or whatever or they eventually agree on, no deal ect.)

    But there theres the Scotland situation to consider too. Do they stay in the union if its remain?

    I agree, there should/could be two questions on the referendum, with the second only attaining meaning depending on the first

    Do you still wish to leave the EU

    Do u wish to leave with the deal, or a clean break No Deal Brexit

    That would be the only way to properly ensure that the will of the electorate is clear - if you have 2 questions with the first being REMAIN/LEAVE - and the second being LEAVE DEAL/LEAVE NO DEAL

    Easy to accomplish this

    Also having 3 options on the ref is a terrible idea for the obvious reason it divides the leave vote - if remain got 40% with 30 for deal, 30 for no deal - remain wins - but the polarization continues

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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  • #7687
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,839 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    No Deal would not be on the ballot paper, They have a negotiated twice, WA that or Remain. The EU may wait a few days to see what develops in the HOC.
    The Johnson Deal may be passed, a Ref or a GE. That would dictate the length. The length of the Ext is always in the gift of the EU.


  • #7688
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    RE the extension request...

    HOC have still not voted on the WA.

    Might it make sense for the EU to say, sorry, we will not entertain an extension untill you have voted on the agreement we literally just negotiated? They havent even tested it yet.
    Saw some tweets yesterday from some MPs saying that the WA had actually been agreed on yesterday by default but it happened was lost amongst the confusion when Johnson saying he wouldn't send the letter.

    Edit: Here :



  • #7689
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1185835835859652608

    Would SNP and Lib Dems support this?

    I believe SNP policy would be to vote for the ammendment but against the overall deal.


  • #7690
    Professor Genius
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 391 ✭✭Professor Genius


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1185835835859652608

    Would SNP and Lib Dems support this?

    Will the DUP ??? That’s the question !!


  • #7691
    Tired Gardener
    Closed Accounts Posts: 456 ✭✭Tired Gardener


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    There's no way 'leave without a deal' should be put forward as an option.

    While I loathe the notion of it, it is looking very likely to happen unless something major happens. Also splitting the Leave vote into the two camps based upon what the two factions are calling for gives them what they want, while also undermining any strength in numbers their vote has.


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  • #7692
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 95,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Letwin_Larry wrote: »
    can i just say this though in relation to a 2nd ref.

    can you imagine yourself having just voted for/against a certain referendum, election whatever, then to have some well intention-ed person tap you on the shoulder and tell you that you were misled, misinformed or just ignorant, and to try again.

    in fairness how would you feel?

    personally i think i would explode. all logic would be lost. emotion would take over.
    Of the people who voted in the last referendum about one million have since died. And about two million people who didn't vote are now eligible.

    So even if not a single person changed their vote from last time Remain would win now.

    The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there.
    - L. P. Hartley


    The other difference is that some people may have changed their minds based on new information.

    Like the way the economic outlook has changed from pre referendum promises of "easiest trade deals ever, unicorns for all" to "the crash will be worse than the last recession".


  • #7693
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,839 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Unless you use a transferable vote, 3 options don't work. Say Remain gets 40% and the other two get 30% each. People in the UK aren't used to voting 1,2,3.


  • #7694
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    robinph wrote: »
    Saw some tweets yesterday from some MPs saying that the WA had actually been agreed on yesterday by default but it happened was lost amongst the confusion when Johnson saying he wouldn't send the letter.

    Edit: Here :

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1185629149500710912?s=09

    That is... Mindblowing? I'm not quite sure what to make of it.


  • #7695
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    robinph wrote: »
    Saw some tweets yesterday from some MPs saying that the WA had actually been agreed on yesterday by default but it happened was lost amongst the confusion when Johnson saying he wouldn't send the letter.

    Edit: Here :

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1185629149500710912?s=09

    Very interesting thread. From what i can gather the WA is on the statute book but hasnt fully been given approval yet. Bit beyond my pay grade to work out what that actually means in practice.


  • #7696
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Very interesting thread. From what i can gather the WA is on the statute book but hasnt fully been given approval yet. Bit beyond my pay grade to work out what that actually means in practice.

    I suppose it means that if each piece of legislation required for the WA is passed through the house, then the WA is approved and ratified.

    The issue is that Westminster thinks it can continue to amend everything, including the legislation underpinning the WA. That will surely not be the case.


  • #7697
    Tired Gardener
    Closed Accounts Posts: 456 ✭✭Tired Gardener


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    That would be great but its fantasy to think you'd engineer a scenario with 2 leave options. Recipe for chaos imho.

    Seeing how split the Leave side are it makes more sense to give them more nuanced option to better fit their odd ideology.

    We had Leave or Remain, which is too simplistic. Remain or Leave with Johnson's deal is again too simplistic.

    Ideally the ballet should have four options, but Remain isn't split.

    Given the situation the UK is in, with three camps emerging binary options aren't going to work. It will most likely not be a 3 option vote, but that isn't to say that it shouldn't be

    Edit, also regarding it being a recipe for Chaos, the UK is already looking chaotic.


  • #7698
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,837 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    When you amend a bill, for the amendment to go through, you have to pass the whole bill (as amended).

    If you don't, the amendment doesn't count, but this is only the first reading.


  • #7699
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Very interesting thread. From what i can gather the WA is on the statute book but hasnt fully been given approval yet. Bit beyond my pay grade to work out what that actually means in practice.

    Which is the whole point of the Letwin amendment. It was MPs saying they would agree to the deal once all other legal obligations prior to actually leaving were completed. So unless the government deliberately trys not to do the other legal processes the WA is agreed just by virtue of the amendment having been voted on.


  • #7700
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Our old pal Andrew Bridgen on marion finucane now. Not only will the uk be negotiating a very quick fta with the EU (the easiest deal in history?) they'll be doing it with the US as well (6 months he says. SIX MONTHS!)

    Also says they'll walk away from EU if not geting want they want and withhold 39 bn. Guy is a troll, why do they keep bringing him on as a guest?


  • #7701
    liamtech
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭liamtech


    BALLOT ONE

    Do you wish to Leave the EU in line with the 2016 Referendum Result or would you prefer to remain

    LEAVE []
    Remain []

    BALLOT TWO

    Do You wish to Leave the EU with the Deal negotiated by Boris Johnson UK PM, or would you prefer to leave without a deal / Clean Break Brexit

    With a Deal []
    Without a Deal []

    With the second ballot question only attaining meaning if the first passes with a Leave Win

    its the only fair way top do it, if you want No Dealers to have a chance - but avoid splitting the Leave Vote, which would be unfair

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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  • #7702
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Tired Gardener wrote: »
    Seeing how split the Leave side are it makes more sense to give them more nuanced option to better fit their odd ideology.

    We had Leave or Remain, which is too simplistic. Remain or Leave with Johnson's deal is again too simplistic.

    Ideally the ballet should have four options, but Remain isn't split.

    Given the situation the UK is in, with three camps emerging binary options aren't going to work. It will most likely not be a 3 option vote, but that isn't to say that it shouldn't be

    Edit, also regarding it being a recipe for Chaos, the UK is already looking chaotic.

    Its good to have these discussions about a second ref because its just not a simple process and needs to be very carefully calibrated imo. As things stand, if a second ref motion is passed, the legislation is going to be enacted by a johnson led government and theres going to be holy murder about it for certain. An analyst on sky yesterday said he thought with all the likely fighting over the terms it would be a year before we got there. That may be off, but i think he's right about the fuss it will cause. However its finally framed.


  • #7703
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    liamtech wrote: »
    BALLOT ONE

    Do you wish to Leave the EU in line with the 2016 Referendum Result or would you prefer to remain

    LEAVE []
    Remain []

    BALLOT TWO

    Do You wish to Leave the EU with the Deal negotiated by Boris Johnson UK PM, or would you prefer to leave without a deal / Clean Break Brexit

    With a Deal []
    Without a Deal []

    With the second ballot question only attaining meaning if the first passes with a Leave Win

    its the only fair way top do it, if you want No Dealers to have a chance - but avoid splitting the Leave Vote, which would be unfair

    But ballot one is asking if you want to leave with unicorns or remain and that is not the current position. The 2016 option no longer exists.


  • #7704
    liamtech
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭liamtech


    robinph wrote: »
    But ballot one is asking if you want to leave with unicorns or remain and that is not the current position. The 2016 option no longer exists.

    No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

    The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

    I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



  • #7705
    Oafley Jones
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,545 ✭✭✭Oafley Jones


    liamtech wrote: »
    No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

    The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

    I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

    You’d never phrase it that way. You’re automatically skewing things.


  • #7706
    Tea Shock
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 345 ✭✭Tea Shock


    Only caught the last bit of it but sounds like Michael McDowell did a really good job of putting Andrew Bridgen in his place on the Marion Funnicsne show just now!


  • #7707
    Tired Gardener
    Closed Accounts Posts: 456 ✭✭Tired Gardener


    liamtech wrote: »
    No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

    The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

    I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

    It does seem like a more plausible solution. If it did get to the second ballot, where would Remainers vote? Voting for the deal is not the same as voting to remain. So, we'd be in limbo, and feel that we haven't had a say in the future.


  • #7708
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    liamtech wrote: »
    No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

    The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

    I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way
    It would work better if the second question was rephrased


    BALLOT TWO (only valid if leave is selected in ballot one)


  • #7709
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Our old pal Andrew Bridgen on marion finucane now. Not only will the uk be negotiating a very quick fta with the EU (the easiest deal in history?) they'll be doing it with the US as well (6 months he says. SIX MONTHS!)

    Also says they'll walk away from EU if not geting want they want and withhold 39 bn. Guy is a troll, why do they keep bringing him on as a guest?

    The 39B is resolved in the WA. So has nothing to do with subsequent trade negotiations. It won't be withheld.


  • #7710
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    liamtech wrote: »
    BALLOT ONE

    Do you wish to Leave the EU in line with the 2016 Referendum Result or would you prefer to remain

    LEAVE []
    Remain []

    BALLOT TWO

    Do You wish to Leave the EU with the Deal negotiated by Boris Johnson UK PM, or would you prefer to leave without a deal / Clean Break Brexit

    With a Deal []
    Without a Deal []

    With the second ballot question only attaining meaning if the first passes with a Leave Win

    its the only fair way top do it, if you want No Dealers to have a chance - but avoid splitting the Leave Vote, which would be unfair

    The government simply cant offer a frickin No Deal to the electorate, its the height of irresponsibility.

    The UK have only ever mentioned it as a threat.

    Its like asking someone 'would you take this cyanide tablet?', when you know it will kill them, but they think it's largely a good idea but with some possible mild side affects.


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  • #7711
    Tea Shock
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 345 ✭✭Tea Shock


    liamtech wrote: »
    No its not - ballot one is confirmatory - it is asking - Do you still wanna leave y/n

    The second question - which only comes into effect if Leave wins above- is asking deal - or no deal

    I maintain its possible to do this , and its the only fair way

    The funny thing about this is the people who act all outraged over people who voted Leave being spoken to as if they are stupid and didn’t know what they were voting for.....the same people say this voting structure is too complex for people! True story!


This discussion has been closed.
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