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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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  • #6362
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,895 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    So I presume that Farage will amend his tweet then :D

    Separately, the Economist don't appear to have much faith in the new agreement...
    https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1184779166576795648

    Why would they? It looks like May's deal reformatted with a new cover and Johnson to sell it.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #6363
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,977 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Why would they? It looks like May's deal reformatted with a new cover and Johnson to sell it.


    Starmer is pretty damning of it and it seems to be far worse than May's deal especially from an average worker perspective


  • #6364
    ToBeFrank123
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 2,176 ✭✭✭ToBeFrank123


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Seriously? If he goes to the public, he'll be annihilated. The way to stop this is cancelling it. Even if the deal passes, we'll be back to this nonsense when it comes to negotiating the FTA.

    Corbyn and Labour will be annihilated and definitely lose all the Leave Labour seats, unless the Brexit Party splits the vote and even then.

    People are sick of Brexit and Corbyn wants to keep it going at least another year at least and even then with no guarantee of a resolution.

    The party who wants to get Brexit done will do well at the election. That's if there is an election.

    There is no chance of Johnson and ERG cancelling Brexit. They've based their whole careers almost around leaving the EU.


  • #6365
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,529 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Tea Shock wrote: »
    That‘s why I said some other trick. They can request the extension but ask the EU not to give an answer on it til they try pass WA II a second, and maybe a third time. They will leave with no deal if WA II passes and I’m certain they’ve thought of a way to also bring about no deal in the other eventuality
    They can't do that without a new EuCo meeting to agree it. And a deal has to go through the EuParl as well. So the EuCo couldn't postpone a decision on an extension when they know there isn't time between a putative second meaningful vote in the HoC and the 31st October. And the Benn Act would already be triggered with the exact wording of the request stipulated in it.

    The only way to get a no deal, is as pointed out above; a dual motion for the WA or a no deal if the WA is not passed. But I can't see that getting through the HoC. And it's like having a self-destruct mechanism built in. People wouldn't vote for the deal if they know that if it doesn't carry, it's no deal.


  • #6366
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,828 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    moon2 wrote: »
    I wonder if this is the loophole which people kept alluding to. The intention of the bill, from all reading, was that either a motion approving an agreement needed to be passed, or a motion approving departure without a deal needed to be passed.

    What Boris is proposing now is a single motion which has two options: vote for this deal or no deal. By proposing this choice in the first place the Benn act would then be nullified as no extension request would be needed.

    I don't think this is allowed.
    All acts must have a status quo option so you vote Yes or No where No implies nothing changes.
    You can't have a Change 1 v Change 2 vote in the HoC.


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  • #6367
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    Frosty Perception wrote: »
    i agree but BJ is a salesman unlike poor old TM.

    that said if this does go through (with or without an GE), she'll be spluttering into her Welsh whisky.

    We'll see on Saturday if he's sold it or not. Based on the current talk he hasn't even sold it to all his party , and that's after he kicked out the unbelievers


  • #6368
    ToBeFrank123
    Users Awaiting Email Confirmation Posts: 2,176 ✭✭✭ToBeFrank123


    Sinn Fein support the deal.

    If only there was some mechanism for them to vote for it in the HoC and hopefully kill off the prospect of a Hard Border.


    Mod: this thread is not for discussing SF's abstentionist policy!!!


  • #6369
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 43,021 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    ToBeFrank123 wrote: »
    Sinn Fein support the deal.

    If only there was some mechanism for them to vote for it in the HoC and hopefully kill off the prospect of a Hard Border.
    As others have previously mentioned that would be sufficient to make sure that most of WM would vote against it!
    SF, if they want it, would be better off staying quiet on the matter!


  • #6370
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,828 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    ToBeFrank123 wrote: »
    Corbyn and Labour will be annihilated and definitely lose all the Leave Labour seats, unless the Brexit Party splits the vote and even then.

    People are sick of Brexit and Corbyn wants to keep it going at least another year at least and even then with no guarantee of a resolution.

    This is nonsense and not a chance of this happening. Labour will hold the bulk of their seats in 'their areas' like the North East or Welsh ex-mining towns. Voting for Brexit against the wishes of Labour was one thing, but these constituencies are generations away from actually voting Tory.
    And on the other side of the Pennines the leave voting suburb constituencies of Liverpool are just not going to ever vote for Boris.


  • #6371
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Settle the head.

    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1184833950193213441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1184833950193213441&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058016732%26page%3D160
    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Juncker looks to have added more than what was reported according to Adam Boulton:

    https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1184830781581074434



    I heard his interview at the time, I think it's much ado about nothing really. He was basically saying that if there's an agreement why do they need an extension, there'll be no need for derogation.


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  • #6372
    lawred2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,756 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Frosty Perception wrote: »
    it's much easier to harp (pun intended) on about the Queen, and their glorious 32 county republic, tweet pics of victims of the troubles than actually engage in real politics.

    the people get the politicians they deserve.

    ...this crap again...

    Or they get the politicians that they desire. SF campaign on an abstentionist basis.


  • #6373
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    This is nonsense and not a chance of this happening. Labour will hold the bulk of their seats in 'their areas' like the North East or Welsh ex-mining towns. Voting for Brexit against the wishes of Labour was one thing, but these constituencies are generations away from actually voting Tory.
    And on the other side of the Pennines the leave voting suburb constituencies of Liverpool are just not going to ever vote for Boris.

    Labour definitely have an issue in their old northern heartlands. That was already clear from 2017 election where their lead among working class voters shrunk significantly. Corbyn is clearly trying his best to hold onto them but it will be a struggle. They might not necessarily vote Tory but they could go brexit party or simply not turn out at all.


  • #6374
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,270 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    boggerman1 wrote: »
    Nigal will support whatever Arron banks tells him to support

    Arron Banks on twitter is backing the deal tbf.

    Farage defending the Benn Act so vigorously is a plot twist I don't think anyone seen coming.


  • #6375
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,375 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

    Agreed if there is no election, it would be farcical.

    That is nonsense.

    There is no election due until 2022 under the FTPA and under normal circumstances if the Gov had a working majority. The Tories are disintegrating midterm and now, without the FTPA, they would call a GE, but cannot because they do not have the votes.

    That is how the HoC works. The Gov needs to have a majority - but they currently do not, so they can be pushed around by the opposition.


  • #6376
    brick tamland
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    Frosty Perception wrote: »
    i agree but BJ is a salesman unlike poor old TM.

    that said if this does go through (with or without an GE), she'll be spluttering into her Welsh whisky.

    Wonder will TM vote for BJs deal now. Itd be a tough pill to swallow.


  • #6377
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,529 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Labour definitely have an issue in their old northern heartlands. That was already clear from 2017 election where their lead among working class voters shrunk significantly. Corbyn is clearly trying his best to hold onto them but it will be a struggle. They might not necessarily vote Tory but they could go brexit party or simply not turn out at all.
    I would say BP would get the votes more than any other party in Leave constituencies among leave voters. Which probably wouldn't amount to seats. But it could weaken the Labour vote substantially and that could benefit another party like the Tories. And the same could happen in Labour remain constituencies like Corbyn's own one or Kate Hoey's.


  • #6378
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,270 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    I would say BP would get the votes more than any other party in Leave constituencies among leave voters. Which probably wouldn't amount to seats. But it could weaken the Labour vote substantially and that could benefit another party like the Tories. And the same could happen in Labour remain constituencies like Corbyn's own one or Kate Hoey's.

    Hoey is in the safest of safest seats I think.

    From what I have read while Lib Dems will target many seats, realistically their is only a few Labour seats they have a realistic chance in.

    However Tory held seats at least 20 or so vulnerable ones.


  • #6379
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,529 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Hoey is in the safest of safest seats I think.

    From what I have read while Lib Dems will target many seats, realistically their is only a few Labour seats they have a realistic chance in.

    However Tory held seats at least 20 or so vulnerable ones.
    Last time I checked, I thought Hoey's seat in Vauxhall was one that voted remain.

    Edit: Yep. 77.6% remain.


  • #6380
    Professor Genius
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 391 ✭✭Professor Genius


    Paddypower odds on deal passing is 5/6. Also 5/6 on not passing


  • #6381
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Why would they? It looks like May's deal reformatted with a new cover and Johnson to sell it.

    It's much worse than May's deal actually. The UK wide backstop was hugely important for the UK economey. Under the Johnson deal GB will be in hard Brexit territory in just over a year, instead of tied to the SU and CM while a trade deal is done.


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  • #6382
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Hoey is history, stepping down cos she'd have been deselected anyway.


  • #6383
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,529 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Hoey is history, stepping down cos she'd have been deselected anyway.
    Yeah, I know. I just brought her up as being in a remain constituency. Unless Labour select a strong remain candidate for that seat, it could go elsewhere.


  • #6384
    Varta
    Closed Accounts Posts: 517 ✭✭✭Varta


    threeball wrote: »
    The UK got their victory in these talks. Despite dealing with some very unscrupulous people the EU/Ireland caved. The very idea of the form of consent being a vote by two of the most hard line and unreliable parties in politics somehow not conspiring to use this process as petty points scoring is remote to say the least. Any invester would be mental to put money in to NI with such an arrangement.

    We in the south now have to watch the unending soap opera of a mini brexit in the north forever more whilst the threat of a hard border returning will ensure the republican and unionist terrorist types have a reason to stick around forever. They were so desperate for a deal they came up with one of the sh1ttiest imaginable.

    It is difficult to comprehend how any sentient being could look at what has occurred and be so wrong in their interpretation. Or are you trolling?


  • #6385
    Rjd2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,270 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    Last time I checked, I thought Hoey's seat in Vauxhall was one that voted remain.

    Sorry posted the above in a rush.

    Hoey has held that seat easily since for nearly 30 years.

    She finished 20 000 votes clear of the Lib Dems in 2017. I don't like her, but no way does she lose that seat when the election arrives.


  • #6386
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Tories think they can compete for Labour seats in the North. "Bolsover over Guildford", is a slogan I've seen, meaning they'll abandon a lot of their seats down south and target ones they believe they can win. Sounds risky to me but that's what they believe. Labour will still fight like dogs to keep their old base, wouldn't write them off completely.


  • #6387
    Varta
    Closed Accounts Posts: 517 ✭✭✭Varta


    RickBlaine wrote: »
    If we get to a situation where the UK requests an extension, I still cannot see the EU refusing it. If they do, they will be seen to have been a cause of a no-deal crash out.

    So having bent over backwards for three years and finally saying enough is enough, you think the EU is to blame. Really?


  • #6388
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    Yeah, I know. I just brought her up as being in a remain constituency. Unless Labour select a strong remain candidate for that seat, it could go elsewhere.

    No worries, I doubt it's on any remain alliance target list all the same. It's one of safest lab seats in the UK, might have reduced vote but still little danger id think.


  • #6389
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 41,895 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Varta wrote: »
    So having bent over backwards for three years and finally saying enough is enough, you think the EU is to blame. Really?

    The EU don't want to be responsible for letting the UK crash out which is why they've agreed to the extensions. When Brexit fails, it needs to be the UK's own fault, not the EU's.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • #6390
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,191 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Professor Genius wrote: »
    Paddypower odds on deal passing is 5/6. Also 5/6 on not passing

    You can get 5/2 for a deal on Coral.


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  • #6391
    moon2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 743 ✭✭✭moon2


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    I don't think this is allowed.
    All acts must have a status quo option so you vote Yes or No where No implies nothing changes.
    You can't have a Change 1 v Change 2 vote in the HoC.

    That makes a lot more sense. I assume the phrasing Boris is using is deliberately misleading then. Still, I can't wait for this vote!


This discussion has been closed.
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