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Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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    #5942
    McMurphy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Some absolute loon on NT claiming that putting a border down the irish sea breaks the GFA, jesus NT stop letting people on your air who don't understand what they are talking about

    Heard one of the Newstalk team say Sammy Wilson text the show to say the DUP are not giving any interviews for the time being, and their earlier released statement stands.

    They realise they're being shafted.


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    #5943
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    What I can't get my hurting head around: sky corr in Belfast suggesting there is surprise in both Brussels and London that dup didn't come on board. But what were they expecting and what basis did they have for their confidence they would? Can't all be that naive at this stage surely?


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    #5944
    intellectual dosser
    Registered Users Posts: 1,827 ✭✭✭intellectual dosser


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Yes they are (the DUP) but the UK isn't. Talks are continuing to iron out the VAT issue and it seems (nobody has said otherwise) that a deal will be agreed if that is sorted and brought back to the HoC.

    Gorman is simply wrong to say the talks won't be concluded because the DUP have kicked on consent.

    Well lets assume that VAT won't be an issue, what are the other reasons talks and an agreement won't be tied off?


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    #5945
    Professor Genius
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 391 ✭✭Professor Genius


    Russman wrote: »
    Just going back to Tony Connelly's tweet earlier, on the consent issue, can someone explain to me why a simple majority in Stormont is seen as bad for the DUP and cross community support is seen as good for the DUP ? I can't quite square that circle tbh !

    If Boris can't get the deal through the HoC because of the DUP, I wonder just how damaged he will be if he fights an election based on "I had a deal done to get us out but those pesky Irish wouldn't allow it, give me a majority and we're good to go". I think he'd probably be ok - especially if you're a leaver but not a hard core headbanger like some of the Brexit Party, coupled with a Labour Party that doesn't know which way is up.

    Cross community vote would mean both Nationalist and Unionist parties would need to agree to stay in after 4 years


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    #5946
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,607 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    If the DUP blow a deal for Boris there will be serious consequences for them with the Tories. : O

    The EU can't move any further nor should they.


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    #5947
    Hermy
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 11,359 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hermy


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Some absolute loon on NT claiming that putting a border down the irish sea breaks the GFA, jesus NT stop letting people on your air who don't understand what they are talking about

    Unfortunately, too often all they [the media] want is a reaction from their audience.
    So sensible contributions from informed commentators are sidelined and the loons are wheeled out instead.

    Genealogy Forum Mod



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    #5948
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,100 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    intellectual dosser wrote: »
    Well lets assume that VAT won't be an issue, what are the other reasons talks and an agreement won't be tied off?

    They are still talking, therefore a deal is still on.

    The EU won't pull the plug because the DUP are tweeting dissent - that is an internal UK matter.


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    #5949
    Varta
    Closed Accounts Posts: 517 ✭✭✭Varta


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    If this touted deal goes through I see no call from NI for a UI in the foreseeable future,-there will be more chance of Scottish independence imo.

    It seemed very obvious from the Newsnight piece and from other reports that I have seen and read that the writing is on the wall and that many unionists now accept it as inevitable. Scottish independence does not have the historical impetus that a UI has.


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    #5950
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I believe EU would like a deal but if not, it's ok too once they have covered off any suggestion they were the main block to getting there. If that's the strategy they're playing it well. They have to be aware all this is leading nowhere as won't pass house anyway, so they'll wait for next step whatever that is, whether election or public vote. Long extension probably preferable option for most.


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    #5951
    54and56
    Registered Users Posts: 7,661 ✭✭✭54and56


    davedanon wrote: »
    Tony doubles down. Or should that be 'quadruples'. Four sources now.


    "At the risk of getting into a source arms race, I have four sources confirming the original report..."

    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1184450769141014529

    Looks like Tony's 4 sources confirming the DUP were onside with the proposed deal were not as well informed as he believed they were.


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    #5952
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    54and56 wrote: »
    Looks like Tony's 4 sources confirming the DUP were onside with the proposed deal were not as well informed as he believed they were.

    Is it possible that the DUP backed out at the last minute to use their leverage to get a few billion more reasons to vote for the deal?


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    #5953
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,203 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    54and56 wrote: »
    Looks like Tony's 4 sources confirming the DUP were onside with the proposed deal were not as well informed as he believed they were.

    The EU are dealing with Johnson and his negotiators, not the DUP. If the EU and journalists are being told by the EU and the British that this potential deal is something they can work with, then they have to take their word.


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    #5954
    Varta
    Closed Accounts Posts: 517 ✭✭✭Varta


    prunudo wrote: »
    And unchallenged too. Why are the media here so afraid to call out unionist views or statements that they claim are fact. And the media in the UK aren't much better calling out bs from brexiteers either.

    Because far too many 'interviewers' in our media are simply glorified DJs and don't have the required knowledge to question people/things properly.


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    #5955
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,615 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Varta wrote: »
    Because far too many 'interviewers' in our media are simply glorified DJs and don't have the required knowledge to question people/things properly.

    Indeed, often people just have a view, air that view in public and reporters take it as being true and being gospel, rather than fact checking it or trying to validate the claims that are made.

    Unfortunately you see it all of the time, some of it is due to lazy journalism, some of it is down to people just being too trusting and other times it's down to reporters misleading on purpose for an agenda.


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    #5956
    54and56
    Registered Users Posts: 7,661 ✭✭✭54and56


    Hurrache wrote: »
    The EU are dealing with Johnson and his negotiators, not the DUP. If the EU and journalists are being told by the EU and the British that this potential deal is something they can work with, then they have to take their word.

    True but that's not what Tony reported.

    "two senior EU sources say the main stumbling block to a deal has been removed with the DUP accepting the latest proposals on consent"

    It's possible the DUP had agreed to it and then got cold feet but it's more likely someone jumped the gun, fed incorrect info to Tony and he went with it but in his defence he does seem to have checked it with several sources before publishing.


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    #5957
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,857 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    54and56 wrote: »
    True but that's not what Tony reported.

    "two senior EU sources say the main stumbling block to a deal has been removed with the DUP accepting the latest proposals on consent"

    It's possible the DUP had agreed to it and then got cold feet but it's more likely someone jumped the gun, fed incorrect info to Tony and he went with it but in his defence he does seem to have checked it with several sources before publishing.

    And the EU get their information from the British.

    So this was already addressed the the post you quoted.


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    #5958
    Robert McGrath
    Registered Users Posts: 437 ✭✭Robert McGrath


    Hurrache wrote: »
    The EU are dealing with Johnson and his negotiators, not the DUP. If the EU and journalists are being told by the EU and the British that this potential deal is something they can work with, then they have to take their word.

    Yep. I can’t help feeling this is the UK setting the DUP up as the public obstacles to a deal that the UK govt don’t really want anyway


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    #5959
    Infini
    Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    Varta wrote: »
    It seemed very obvious from the Newsnight piece and from other reports that I have seen and read that the writing is on the wall and that many unionists now accept it as inevitable. Scottish independence does not have the historical impetus that a UI has.

    In all respects Brexit is the nail in the coffin for unionism as Arlene and co are for all intensive purposes, discredited, disgraced and corrupt and have been exposed as uncaring fools who put ideology and their unicorns before the wellbeing of NI.

    People up there were happy with the union so long as their future prospects were good and secure but this deal kills investment as people have commented noones gonna invest in an area with such uncertain future prospects evwry 4 years and a UI is the only way for NI to escape both that and the political instability of the UK. If scottish independence happens then the union is dead to rights.


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    #5960
    Kiith
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    So if this deal is legit, it's good for the England, good for Ireland and bad for NI?

    And is this not just kicking the border wall issue down the road and ensuring it happens all over again in 4 years time (and then 4 more etc...)?


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    #5961
    farmchoice
    Registered Users Posts: 1,026 ✭✭✭farmchoice


    devnull wrote: »
    Is it possible that the DUP backed out at the last minute to use their leverage to get a few billion more reasons to vote for the deal?


    no and by now it should have become apparent that on this issue the DUP cannot be bought.
    The reason the DUP exist is to protect the union, at the end of the day it is their only policy everything else they do is really only relevant in how it pertains to protecting and strengthening the union.
    now its not a sophisticated view of protecting the union it doesn't take a long term view or anything like that. its as much about as keeping the Taigs down as any thing else, its about flying the flag.


    this deal makes them look like they have capitulated and in effect it has weakened the union. over the course of 30 years it might possibly be the thing that saves it if used properly but the DUP wont see it like that.


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    #5962
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,203 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    54and56 wrote: »
    True but that's not what Tony reported.

    "two senior EU sources say the main stumbling block to a deal has been removed with the DUP accepting the latest proposals on consent"

    It's possible the DUP had agreed to it and then got cold feet but it's more likely someone jumped the gun, fed incorrect info to Tony and he went with it but in his defence he does seem to have checked it with several sources before publishing.

    I'd say what's highlighted is what happened. They slept on it/got harassed by their hardcore support base overnight and released their statement as the everyone was getting out of bed


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    #5963
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,383 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Hurrache wrote: »
    I'd say what's highlighted is what happened. They slept on it/got harassed by their hardcore support base overnight and released their statement as the everyone was getting out of bed

    Also, Foster may well have been inclined to agree to it but the hardliners like Wilson, Paisley and Dodds were having none of it once they realised what was in the text.


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    #5964
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,100 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Hurrache wrote: »
    I'd say what's highlighted is what happened. They slept on it/got harassed by their hardcore support base overnight and released their statement as the everyone was getting out of bed

    Same as the May deal...remember Arlene looking like she had gone ten rounds on the steps of Stormont, pulling the rug from under Theresa.

    Remember the deal done on the Irish Language act and LGBT rights but later reneged on?

    I think they put these things out there, sniff the wind back home and then decide.


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    #5965
    lobbylad
    Registered Users Posts: 124 ✭✭lobbylad


    So, under the rumoured deal, how would the following work out:

    (a) I order something from amazon UK, shipped to my home, I get charged any excise/tariffs as UK is a non EU country

    (b) I register a parcelmotel NI address, order on amazon UK, its shipped to the NI address, no excise as its internal UK, then its forwarded to Dublin, again no excise/tariffs as its across the NI/ROI border.

    Seems the route of my parcel would allow me to avoid EU charges?


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    #5966
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    lobbylad wrote: »
    So, under the rumoured deal, how would the following work out:

    (a) I order something from amazon UK, shipped to my home, I get charged any excise/tariffs as UK is a non EU country

    (b) I register a parcelmotel NI address, order on amazon UK, its shipped to the NI address, no excise as its internal UK, then its forwarded to Dublin, again no excise/tariffs as its across the NI/ROI border.

    Seems the route of my parcel would allow me to avoid EU charges?

    It would have EU tariffs applied entering NI.


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    #5967
    Eric Cartman
    Registered Users Posts: 26,282 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    lobbylad wrote: »
    So, under the rumoured deal, how would the following work out:

    (a) I order something from amazon UK, shipped to my home, I get charged any excise/tariffs as UK is a non EU country

    (b) I register a parcelmotel NI address, order on amazon UK, its shipped to the NI address, no excise as its internal UK, then its forwarded to Dublin, again no excise/tariffs as its across the NI/ROI border.

    Seems the route of my parcel would allow me to avoid EU charges?

    Most of your amazon orders are already shipped from spain , theyve already planned for this


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    #5968
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Hurrache wrote: »
    I'd say what's highlighted is what happened. They slept on it/got harassed by their hardcore support base overnight and released their statement as the everyone was getting out of bed

    Not so certain as Foster pretty much took Connelly to task almost as soon as he made his original tweet. I suspect what is happening is that EU got a bit taken in by gov assurances they'd get dup in line. Bit naive if so, but seems likely explanation to me anyway.


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    #5969
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    I don't think there would be much the EU could do if the UK Parliament as it's sovereign right, decided another way to resolve the border

    That is why it is not worth trashing a deal to get a theoretical sign-up to no border ever ever ever, because once out, the UK can rip up any agreement any time they like.

    This deal gives us no border for 6 years, and crushing economic consequences for NI if Unionists pull the plug after that. It'll do.


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    #5970
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Not so certain as Foster pretty much took Connelly to task almost as soon as he made his original tweet. I suspect what is happening is that EU got a bit taken in by gov assurances they'd get dup in line. Bit naive if so, but seems likely explanation to me anyway.
    EU are working on the deal Boris is bringing and it seems to tick their boxes. They don't care about the DUP. That's his problem.


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    #5971
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Professor Genius wrote: »
    Cross community vote would mean both Nationalist and Unionist parties would need to agree to stay in after 4 years

    No. What's proposed is a simply majority to continue the arrangement after 4 years. Cross community support leads to an 8 year continuance.


This discussion has been closed.
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