Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Headshot · 10-10-2019 11:06pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

The ERG don't give a crap about Northern Ireland. They are already on record as saying the backstop was just a handy thing to hang their hats on so they can get no deal via the backdoor

The conservative base doesn’t give a damn about NI. Back in 2018 YouGov poll results show the conservative base would sacrifice NI for brexit. The ERG wouldn’t even hesitate to get rid of the nuisance NI

Mr.Nice Guy · 10-10-2019 11:08pm

Seems like the DUP veto idea has been done away with. Here's the NI Secretary of State moments ago:

https://twitter.com/bbctheview/status/1182414451364061186

threeball · 10-10-2019 11:08pm

Clutterluck wrote: »

threeball wrote: »

Nothing other than a border in the Irish sea will be acceptable to Ireland or the EU

I can understand that, but not how you prevent smuggling onto the continent.

Well nothing can get on to the island without being checked at the ports and so it will be no different than if the goods arrived in the republic.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 11:10pm

Clutterluck wrote: »

It seems like a gaping hole to me. If goods from some other third country are brought/dumped into the North, they can find their way into the Single Market and onto the continent via the back door.

Not really. The fact that everything entering NI is recorded means that there's traceability. Full SPS checks can take place in Larne. Afaik, they already do have checks there for 3rd country arrivals.

There seems to be indications that this is being taken seriously. Peter Foster has been tweeting about how little information is going around. Even noted that the "peerless" Tony Connelly is in the dark too.
.

Sierra Oscar · 10-10-2019 11:13pm

Ben Lowry on the Tonight Show now saying he can't make any contact with DUP politicians tonight, complete radio silence. Ominous for them. If they were onboard they would be briefing. Silence suggests they are out of the loop

Clutterluck · 10-10-2019 11:17pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Not really. The fact that everything entering NI is recorded means that there's traceability. Full SPS checks can take place in Larne. Afaik, they already do have checks there for 3rd country arrivals.

There seems to be indications that this is being taken seriously. Peter Foster has been tweeting about how little information is going around. Even noted that the "peerless" Tony Connelly is in the dark too

But if there is a dual custom zone, and couldn't you potentially import tariff-free into the North goods that would normally attract a tariff entering the EU, then move the goods across the border without customs and send to the continent?

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 11:20pm

Clutterluck wrote: »

But if there is a dual custom zone, and couldn't you potentially import tariff-free into the North goods that would normally attract a tariff entering the EU, then move the goods across the border without customs and send to the continent?

You potentially could. But you'd be caught pretty quickly. We're on an island. Everything has to go through a port to get on or off the island.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 11:22pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Ben Lowry on the Tonight Show now saying he can't make any contact with DUP politicians tonight, complete radio silence. Ominous for them. If they were onboard they would be briefing. Silence suggests they are out of the loop

Or as Peter Foster is saying above, that they're in the loop and under a vow of omerta. Like everyone else.

Clutterluck · 10-10-2019 11:25pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

You potentially could. But you'd be caught pretty quickly. We're on an island. Everything has to go through a port to get on or off the island.

I guess Revenue would pick up on it through VAT returns?

circadian · 10-10-2019 11:28pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Ben Lowry on the Tonight Show now saying he can't make any contact with DUP politicians tonight, complete radio silence. Ominous for them. If they were onboard they would be briefing. Silence suggests they are out of the loop

It's possible. They have little reason to be involved at this point and it's a case of looking at the public sentiment in NI towards a hard exit. It's not good, farmers, small business owners and pretty much anyone anywhere near the border are all against it, I'd say many DUP voters are dead against it. I know that the majority of moderate unionists see how mental this whole fiasco is.

If the DUP get a hard exit for NI Boris will have a huge problem on his hands. It's worth throwing the DUP under the bus at this point. He gets the "whatever you want" brexit for Britain without the headache of NI spiralling out of control.

maebee · 10-10-2019 11:30pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Johnson needs an excuse to seek an extension. This gives him the opportunity to say to his supporters that an extension is needed as there is a real chance of a deal being clenched in the weeks ahead. Seeking an extension in any other circumstance would be a devastating humiliation. I would still be weary as to his endgame intentions.

Agreed. The "I'd rather die in a ditch" is the price he will have to pay for the deal/extension that is close at hand. He's telling the Brits "Even Leo says I'm close to a deal, stick with me".

Strazdas · 10-10-2019 11:35pm

circadian wrote: »

It's possible. They have little reason to be involved at this point and it's a case of looking at the public sentiment in NI towards a hard exit. It's not good, farmers, small business owners and pretty much anyone anywhere near the border are all against it, I'd say many DUP voters are dead against it. I know that the majority of moderate unionists see how mental this whole fiasco is.

If the DUP get a hard exit for NI Boris will have a huge problem on his hands. It's worth throwing the DUP under the bus at this point. He gets the "whatever you want" brexit for Britain without the headache of NI spiralling out of control.

If the DUP do get thrown under the bus, it's difficult to see what leverage they would have. They are a small party from one of the UK regions and are hardly in a position to do anything except 'suck it up'.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-10-2019 11:38pm

The Times are saying tomorrow that Arlene Foster was in touch with Downing Street prior to the meeting today.

They are probably trying to digest the concession, whatever it is, that Johnson has put forward.

Imreoir2 · 10-10-2019 11:40pm

Just to throw a little cold water on proceedings, we have been here before and both the ultra Brexiteers and remainers conspired to kill the deal. Perhaps Johnson can keep the ultras onside, but he can't get the remainers behind him and that will almost certainly kill his deal.

Lib Dems and SNP will vote against anything that delivers Brexit. I don't see a chance of Corbyn supporting any deal brought back by the Tories and the vast majority of Labour will vote against anything with Johnsons name on it. That means Johnson needs to get the DUP, the ERG and the people he threw out of his party all into the same lobby, which seems unlikely to say the least. He has not won a single vote. I can't see him starting with the WA, at least not without convincing the EU to rule out an extension if the deal is rejected, but I don't see the EU going there for Johnson.

BonnieSituation · 10-10-2019 11:43pm

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Just to throw a little cold water on proceedings, we have been here before and both the ultra Brexiteers and remainers conspired to kill the deal. Perhaps Johnson can keep the ultras onside, but he can't get the remainers behind him and that will almost certainly kill his deal.

Lib Dems and SNP will vote against anything that delivers Brexit. I don't see a chance of Corbyn supporting any deal brought back by the Tories and the vast majority of Labour will vote against anything with Johnsons name on it. That means Johnson needs to get the DUP, the ERG and the people he threw out of his party all into the same lobby, which seems unlikely to say the least. He has not won a single vote. I can't see him starting with the WA, at least not without convincing the EU to rule out an extension if the deal is rejected, but I don't see the EU going there for Johnson.

But that's his problem.

Not ours. Let him wriggle out of his mess.

Water John · 10-10-2019 11:46pm

If parliament rejects, by a small number, a proposed deal acceptable to the EU and the UK Govn't, he can get an Ext and then go for a GE.
A new Govn't, he hopes led by himself gets the deal across the line.
That's a sensible plan, maybe one he's stumbled on, as the only positive option left.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 11:48pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But that's his problem.

Not ours. Let him wriggle out of his mess.

Indeed. Will be interesting to see what he does. He may be banking on 'brexit fatigue' to get him the votes or just waiting for an election to do it for him. If he has the semblance of a deal, he could even call a referendum on it.

MPFGLB · 10-10-2019 11:49pm

BonnieSituation wrote: »

But that's his problem.

Not ours. Let him wriggle out of his mess.

Its everyone's problem on these islands becasue the threat of non deal is very real

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 11:50pm

MPFGLB wrote: »

Its everyone's problem on these islands becasue the threat of non deal is very real

There's nothing we can do about that. It's their call. But there's no appetite for that in the HoC and that's not likely to change after an election.

MPFGLB · 10-10-2019 11:51pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Indeed. Will be interesting to see what he does. He may be banking on 'brexit fatigue' to get him the votes or just waiting for an election to do it for him. If he has the semblance of a deal, he could even call a referendum on it.

HE cant call an election as HoC votes against one and anyway he has only 20 days to go to his all or nothing die in a ditch deadline

MPFGLB · 10-10-2019 11:53pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's nothing we can do about that. It's their call. But there's no appetite for that in the HoC and that's not likely to change after an election.

...the talks with Leo are supposedly doing something about that ?

But you are missing the point ...I repliedto your post that basically says its BoJo's problem with its not only his problem if there is no deal ...its everyone's

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 11:56pm

MPFGLB wrote: »

HE cant call an election as HoC votes against one and anyway he has only 20 days to go to his all or nothing die in a ditch deadline

I didn't say he'd call one. The opposition can't stall for ever on a VONC, they have to do it sooner or later.

prawnsambo · 10-10-2019 11:58pm

MPFGLB wrote: »

...the talks with Leo are supposedly doing something about that ?

But you are missing the point ...I repliedto your post that basically says its BoJo's problem with its not only his problem if there is no deal ...its everyone's

That wasn't my post. It was Bonnie Situation's. I agreed with it, but that wasn't what you replied to.

LeinsterDub · 10-10-2019 11:59pm

Water John wrote: »

If parliament rejects, by a small number, a proposed deal acceptable to the EU and the UK Govn't, he can get an Ext and then go for a GE.
A new Govn't, he hopes led by himself gets the deal across the line.
That's a sensible plan, maybe one he's stumbled on, as the only positive option left.

He could just make the deal a vote of confidence too. That way he either gets a deal or a GE

maebee · 11-10-2019 12:07am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Times are saying tomorrow that Arlene Foster was in touch with Downing Street prior to the meeting today.

They are probably trying to digest the concession, whatever it is, that Johnson has put forward.

It does look like the bus is coming for the DUP. Boris/England will have its Brexit. They don't give a flyin fúck about NI. Boris wants to be the PM who delivered it. End of.

prawnsambo · 11-10-2019 12:10am

maebee wrote: »

It does look like the bus is coming for the DUP. Boris/England will have its Brexit. They don't give a flyin fúck about NI. Boris wants to be the PM who delivered it. End of.

I think if you shortened that to just the bolded bit, it would probably be more accurate. Boris isn't wedded to anything else. Just what keeps him in Number 10.

BonnieSituation · 11-10-2019 12:23am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks a pretty horrid article.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/10/northern-ireland-burden-rest-uk-cant-let-get-way-brexit/

On cue.

All choreographed to sell it to the Brexit base.

It's not altogether horrid. Absolutely mills into the north for being a millstone around the UK's neck and then proceeds to big up the prosperity and secularity of the 26 counties. Funny that...

Now, I had to subscribe to read the bugger.

So you don't have to...

The Telegraph wrote:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

The EU talks are still in danger of collapsing because of Northern Ireland at a time when the majority of people who live there think they will be part of a united Ireland within ten years, according to Lord Ashcroft’s September poll.

Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

In 2016-17, according to HM Treasury figures, total expenditure by the Government on Northern Ireland was £20.6 billion. HMRC reports that tax receipts from Northern Ireland in the same year came to £11.7 billion, a net payment of £8.8 billion.

There is more than one way of looking at the cost of the EU, but if we use the official figures published by the European Commission, which include payments by Brussels to the UK’s public and private sectors, the net average annual cost for the five years from 2014 to 2018 was £7.8 billion (after deducting the UK’s payment rebate).

In other words we pay a net £7.8 billion to gain access to a market of about 450 million people (after deducting our own population) and we pay £8.8 billion a year to 1.8 million people in Northern Ireland.

Moreover, we effectively bribe the people of Northern Ireland to stay in the UK by spending more on them than we spend on ourselves. Average "identifiable expenditure" per head, according to HM Treasury, was £9,159 in 2016-17. Of the four countries that make up the UK, Northern Ireland received the largest amount per head at £11,042. The people of England received £8,898 per head.

The time has come to test whether the people of Northern Ireland would vote to unite with the republic. Lord Ashcroft’s poll carried out last month found a small majority in favour of having a referendum on Irish unity. True, when asked to predict the outcome if a referendum were held tomorrow, 59 per cent said they thought that Northern Ireland would vote to stay in the UK. However, when asked what the outcome would be in ten years, 54 per cent said they thought it would go the other way.

It’s not surprising. Ireland has changed. As measured by GDP per head, Ireland is very prosperous. The latest statistics show GDP per head in Ireland of $72,600. The Northern Ireland equivalent is $29,300 and for the UK it is $42,400.

Twenty years ago Ireland was dominated by the Catholic Church, which ran most schools and hospitals and had an extensive role in politics generally. In recent times, however, the church has been permanently weakened by the child-abuse scandals and subsequent cover-ups. The protestants of Northern Ireland have very little to fear from the modern Catholic Church, and there must now be a real chance that the sectarianism that has so disfigured the island’s history can be overcome.

The north-south institutions for co-operation created by the Belfast Agreement have worked well and many elements of the all-island economy have proved successful. Ian Paisley famously remarked that island-wide animal-health regulations meant that the cattle were all Irish. And Ireland’s rugby union team, now playing in the World Cup, has long been drawn from both sides of the border. No doubt these examples can be dismissed as minor exceptions, but they reveal what’s possible with a bit of good will.

Accepting customs checks at the Irish Sea would allow the EU negotiations to be successfully concluded and remains the best solution, but if the DUP continues to block this obvious remedy, then a referendum on Irish unity will be the best way forward for everyone, in Northern Ireland, the republic and the rest of the UK.

David Green is director of Civitas

---

Now that italicized part is most interesting.

Civitas are based in 55 Tufton St. Former home of...

I mean, we're good on this thread, but the Cummings play-by-play just keeps bring called out.

MPFGLB · 11-10-2019 12:37am

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think if you shortened that to just the bolded bit, it would probably be more accurate. Boris isn't wedded to anything else. Just what keeps him in Number 10.

Sorry ...its late and I am doing 10 different things

54and56 · 11-10-2019 12:40am

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks a pretty horrid article.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/10/northern-ireland-burden-rest-uk-cant-let-get-way-brexit/

On cue.

All choreographed to sell it to the Brexit base.

It's not altogether horrid. Absolutely mills into the north for being a millstone around the UK's neck and then proceeds to big up the prosperity and secularity of the 26 counties. Funny that...

Now, I had to subscribe to read the bugger.

So you don't have to...

The Telegraph wrote:

Northern Ireland is a burden on the rest of the UK. We can't let it get in the way of Brexit

The EU talks are still in danger of collapsing because of Northern Ireland at a time when the majority of people who live there think they will be part of a united Ireland within ten years, according to Lord Ashcroft’s September poll.

Northern Ireland has long been a millstone round the neck of the rest of the UK and to fail to take back our independence because of it would be an historic tragedy. It is not widely known that it costs the UK more to support Northern Ireland than it does to be in the EU.

In 2016-17, according to HM Treasury figures, total expenditure by the Government on Northern Ireland was £20.6 billion. HMRC reports that tax receipts from Northern Ireland in the same year came to £11.7 billion, a net payment of £8.8 billion.

There is more than one way of looking at the cost of the EU, but if we use the official figures published by the European Commission, which include payments by Brussels to the UK’s public and private sectors, the net average annual cost for the five years from 2014 to 2018 was £7.8 billion (after deducting the UK’s payment rebate).

In other words we pay a net £7.8 billion to gain access to a market of about 450 million people (after deducting our own population) and we pay £8.8 billion a year to 1.8 million people in Northern Ireland.

Moreover, we effectively bribe the people of Northern Ireland to stay in the UK by spending more on them than we spend on ourselves. Average "identifiable expenditure" per head, according to HM Treasury, was £9,159 in 2016-17. Of the four countries that make up the UK, Northern Ireland received the largest amount per head at £11,042. The people of England received £8,898 per head.

The time has come to test whether the people of Northern Ireland would vote to unite with the republic. Lord Ashcroft’s poll carried out last month found a small majority in favour of having a referendum on Irish unity. True, when asked to predict the outcome if a referendum were held tomorrow, 59 per cent said they thought that Northern Ireland would vote to stay in the UK. However, when asked what the outcome would be in ten years, 54 per cent said they thought it would go the other way.

It’s not surprising. Ireland has changed. As measured by GDP per head, Ireland is very prosperous. The latest statistics show GDP per head in Ireland of $72,600. The Northern Ireland equivalent is $29,300 and for the UK it is $42,400.

Twenty years ago Ireland was dominated by the Catholic Church, which ran most schools and hospitals and had an extensive role in politics generally. In recent times, however, the church has been permanently weakened by the child-abuse scandals and subsequent cover-ups. The protestants of Northern Ireland have very little to fear from the modern Catholic Church, and there must now be a real chance that the sectarianism that has so disfigured the island’s history can be overcome.

The north-south institutions for co-operation created by the Belfast Agreement have worked well and many elements of the all-island economy have proved successful. Ian Paisley famously remarked that island-wide animal-health regulations meant that the cattle were all Irish. And Ireland’s rugby union team, now playing in the World Cup, has long been drawn from both sides of the border. No doubt these examples can be dismissed as minor exceptions, but they reveal what’s possible with a bit of good will.

Accepting customs checks at the Irish Sea would allow the EU negotiations to be successfully concluded and remains the best solution, but if the DUP continues to block this obvious remedy, then a referendum on Irish unity will be the best way forward for everyone, in Northern Ireland, the republic and the rest of the UK.

David Green is director of Civitas

---

Now that italicized part is most interesting.

Civitas are based in 55 Tufton St. Former home of...

I mean, we're good on this thread, but the Cummings play-by-play just keeps bring called out.

Un fcuking believable!!

Never EVER thought I'd read something like that in The Tory Telegraph but I guess it actually reflects the poll taken a while back amongst Tories which found 60% of them would ditch NI of it meant they could have a "proper" Brexit.

This could be an absolute historic turning point.

Water John · 11-10-2019 12:44am

Yes, policy designed by polls and focus groups. Sadly now widespread not political leadership on, what is right.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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