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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

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    #782
    aidanodr
    Registered Users Posts: 1,547 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1179079604784500736

    Thoughts on this? 2 for the price of 1


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    #783
    c.p.w.g.w
    Registered Users Posts: 4,994 ✭✭✭c.p.w.g.w


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Just one of the many driving factors of this potential storm for Ireland (2m anomaly forecast from the GFS 06z run)

    wrT2zgn.gif


    Large file warning. Could be slow to load.

    Why does Greenland look like Africa in that model?


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    #784
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,108 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    El_Bee wrote: »
    Sun is shining and the ground's dry already here in North Dublin, so much for that lol

    So much for the storm that's thousands of kilometres away?


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    #785
    antodeco
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 13,425 ✭✭✭✭antodeco


    El_Bee wrote: »
    Sun is shining and the ground's dry already here in North Dublin, so much for that lol

    I know! I hate when the post storm weather arrives BEFORE the storm hits.....


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    #786
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,822 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM Rapid Hi Res model showing increasingly stronger winds . Certainly looks like we are getting into the high end warnings if these charts were to verify, tonight's and tomorrow mornings charts will be crucial. Time to go yet to fine tune.


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    #787
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,508 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    c.p.w.g.w wrote: »
    Why does Greenland look like Africa in that model?

    It's temperature anomaly. Greenland is currently very warm compared to its average temperature.


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    #788
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    George Lee always leaves out Donegal when hes talking about the Western Counties at risk - (Kerry to Sligo). Not sure if he is just forgetting about Donegal or whether or not he thinks its not at risk.


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    #789
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    donal.hunt wrote: »
    When they have enough words to placate the "can I have Thursday off?" crowd for another 12 hours. Would expect a holding statement that indicates disruption is expected but it's still unclear where and when.

    I personally think at-risk locations need tomorrow to make preparations because Wednesday night / Thursday morning will be too late.


    Agree totally, and all set here. Left the shopping supplies to the experts. will not be the first or last time they have had to adapt etc.

    Just caught the reports on the news re the Homeless charities seeking resources. Cannot link but easy enough to find on eg breakingnews. Lorenzo has many facets


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    #790
    dsmythy
    Registered Users Posts: 10,508 ✭✭✭✭dsmythy


    Pangea wrote: »
    George Lee always leaves out Donegal when hes talking about the Western Counties at risk - (Kerry to Sligo). Not sure if he is just forgetting about Donegal or whether or not he thinks its not at risk.

    It could turn at Donegal and save them some of the wind.


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    #791
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Not sure if anyone else noticed, but

    As we know, this storm (somewhat) isn't as strong as Ophelia was, but it's path directory is worse then Ophelia's. Obviously no two storms are the same, but since this one has a lot of rain coming with it, (and already with the damp soils here in S. Co Dublin from the last 24 hours of constant rain.) Does anyone think the storm will effect the rivers badly?

    The River Dodder is SUPER high up currently, and I mean another 10mm or less and it'll break it's banks. How much rain would you think E coast would get Thursday-Friday? 15mm?


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    #792
    m17
    Registered Users Posts: 4,322 ✭✭✭m17




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    #793
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    TTLF wrote: »
    Not sure if anyone else noticed, but

    As we know, this storm (somewhat) isn't as strong as Ophelia was, but it's path directory is worse then Ophelia's. Obviously no two storms are the same, but since this one has a lot of rain coming with it, (and already with the damp soils here in S. Co Dublin from the last 24 hours of constant rain.) Does anyone think the storm will effect the rivers badly?

    The River Dodder is SUPER high up currently, and I mean another 10mm or less and it'll break it's banks. How much rain would you think E coast would get Thursday-Friday? 15mm?


    http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/

    http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/0001/week/


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    #794
    TTLF
    Registered Users Posts: 671 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Captain Snow wrote: »
    http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/

    http://waterlevel.ie/0000009010/0001/week/

    How does these two sites work? (I'm a little confused by them, guessing they just show the current water level?)


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    #795
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 600 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    TTLF wrote: »
    How does these two sites work? (I'm a little confused by them, guessing they just show the current water level?)

    Shows water levels on alot of the countrys rivers.


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    #796
    RobbingBandit
    Registered Users Posts: 18,083 ✭✭✭✭RobbingBandit


    Can someone sticky that ESB power check site might be a good idea for the next few days.


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    #797
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Looking at the charts I have as much concerns about rainfall as the strength of the winds.
    Looks to a serious amount of rain with it


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    #798
    aidanodr
    Registered Users Posts: 1,547 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    RobbingBandit wrote: »
    Can someone sticky that ESB power check site might be a good idea for the next few days.

    Also keep in mind that the POWERCHECK app is available at both PlayStore and AppStore.


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    #799
    donal.hunt
    Registered Users Posts: 334 ✭✭donal.hunt


    Can we keep this to technical discussions please. There is a chat thread for logistical / human impact discussion, etc. :)


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    #800
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,543 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Looking at the charts I have as much concerns about rainfall as the strength of the winds.
    Looks to a serious amount of rain with it

    Roughly what totals are showing at the moment?


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    #801
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Roughly what totals are showing at the moment?

    From my understanding 50mm maybe more


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    #802
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Ryanair on the ground at the Azores Airport

    https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/portugal/azores/ponta-delgada-airport.html


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    #803
    antodeco
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 13,425 ✭✭✭✭antodeco


    donal.hunt wrote: »
    Can we keep this to technical discussions please. There is a chat thread for logistical / human impact discussion, etc. :)

    Title still says [CHAT]. Thats where the confusion is.


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    #804
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/storm-lorenzo-minister-warns-of-ferocious-and-dangerous-wave-surges-along-irelands-coast-38553405.html


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    #805
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Widdensushi wrote: »
    sure he is safe out saying what strength the wind will be at sea,dodged giving a forecast for onshore or giving where would be hit worst

    He got his speed wrong for 12Z on Thursday. Said 140 kph mean speed but it should be 130.


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    #806
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    aidanodr wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1179079604784500736

    Thoughts on this? 2 for the price of 1

    What's been maintaining Lorenzo's strength today is that upper poleward outflow due to the trough to the northwest. It's causing upper divergence which is keeping surface pressure lower than it otherwise would be.

    Lorenzo passed over the 26 °C SST isotherm this afternoon, with a fall of about 2 degrees per 6 hours of track over the next couple of days. This should accelerate weakening from about now.


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    #807
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Amazing to still see such a difference in tracks between the 3 TAB models, which compute the steering flow through different depths of the atmosphere (Shallow, Medium and Deep).

    The deep (TABD) shows the effect of the upper steering flow from that Atlantic trough, whereas the shallow (TABS) brings it down through the Mediterranean and the medium through the English Channel.

    aal13_2019100112_track_early.png


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    #808
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,822 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z came back a bit again on the max wind speeds. Windy in coastal counties during Thurs and becoming increasingly so from the evening . Strongest winds from about 20.00 -21.00 onward I would think .

    Seeing Galway, Clare, Mayo, and Kerry as the windiest areas gusting up around 120 km/h, highest in coastal areas . Galway and Mayo looking the windiest atm with possibly 130 km/h gusts or there about in exposed coastal areas. Inland gusting generally up to 90 km/h, possibly 100km/h on higher ground.

    Relatively slow moving as it turns in over the country, going to be a long 12 hrs or so of strong winds along Atlantic coasts.


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    #809
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,822 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Storm Lorenzo filling as it crosses the country. Still time for changes of course, still a long way off.


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    #810
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,822 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON EU almost carbon copy track and very close in pressure readings. Showing stronger winds on coasts getting up around 130km/h in Galway possibly higher in exposed coastal areas. ICON good model in the close range, sometimes wind speeds overcooked a bit.

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    #811
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,822 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    WRF -NMM 12Z Keeping strongest winds more in the W.


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