Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

Gaoth Laidir

Watch live TV coverage from RTP Açores here. They have someone out on Flores.

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtpacores

Graces7

John.Icy wrote: »

What is this places obsession with Ophelia comparisons? Besides Cork there's every chance other areas will see winds like they did with Ophelia with Lorenzo.

And that's because bar exposed southern places Ophelia delivered yellow level winds to many, orange to some (3 stations red, all Cork S.coast, 5 orange and the rest yellow).

Out and out max intensity Lorenzo won't match what Opehlia did down in Cork BUT you should be looking at what Lorenzo is going to do in your area and cross compare to previous storms not max vs. max gusts of systems. Most of the time you're looking at what various storms have done at Malin Head or Bellmullet or the likes then!

Just like how Storm Ali caught some by surprise in Dublin. It was only a yellow yet it matched the 104km/h gust achieved during Ophelia so it was a tasty little storm.

Follow the forecasts and regional wind speed estimates rather than dismissing a storm because the answer to "will Lorenzo be as strong as Ophelia" is no technically. Trees are in leaf and the ground is damp, trees can fall with yellow level gusts, as seen today in Dublin - don't even think we hit yellow level gusts.

Agree, especially as Mayo, Donegal, Sligo and I think Galway, were not affected by Ophelia. She never came our way. Thankfully..

Oneiric 3

Some overnight runs for midnight Thursday:

ECMWF (18z)



Strongest winds over the SW'rn half of the country generally speaking as low pushes over Connacht and Leinster.

GFS:



Low further north, as are the brunt of the winds.

Icon more or less similar; perhaps a bit further north still:



Nothing really nailed on this morning, but with the UKMO (yesterday's 12z) & latest ECMWF tending the low slightly further south, maybe signals are being narrowed down.


Latest WV image:

DOCARCH

Latest NHC forecast track.

MrDerp

DOCARCH wrote: »

Latest NHC forecast track.

[]

Big upgrade? It’s staying a hurricane much closer to our shores than I had seen on previous advisories?

Seems to me a much bigger chance of red for the western counties for a few hours now.

OneEightSeven

Does anyone have any videos or gifs or showing the temperature of the storm's core? Looking at Twitter, Lorenzo is expanding in size.

DOCARCH

OneEightSeven wrote: »

Looking at Twitter, Lorenzo is expanding in size.

Probably starting to loose strength now/starting extratropical transition.

Gaoth Laidir

It's just passed the western Azores in the past hour. Flores airport reported a gust of 74 knots and a highest mean of 52 knots. Lowest pressure 969 hPa.

It's now 32 gust 65 knots and pressure rising at 972 hPa.

leahyl

Am I right in saying that Cork shouldn’t suffer too badly from this? Seems to be mostly concentrated on the west coast and midlands?

GooglePlus

Status yellow wind and rain nationwide with it being orange for risk coastal areas.

According to Evelyn Cusack on VM1

bazlers

leahyl wrote: »

Am I right in saying that Cork shouldn’t suffer too badly from this? Seems to be mostly concentrated on the west coast and midlands?

I don't think too many will suffer badly from it.

JanuarySnowstor

If we end up with just yellow and orange after we following this thing for a week lol. Am exhausted from it

M.T. Cranium

An underlying theme will be rapid weakening from Atlantic to Irish Sea, the key question for forecasters being, will that weakening trend be well underway at landfall in Connacht (as appears very likely now) or will it begin during the land passage of the low?

The maps hint at a start to the weakening trend before landfall, but basing a forecast this important on such a concept could prove ill-advised. However, you should probably read any given forecast as top end of possibility and factor in that conditions might be less intense in the final analysis.

On the other hand, there is nothing to stop the predicted buildup of very high sea states, late developments near the coast will mean nothing to that part of the warning, and the seas will get rough well in advance of the winds reaching their peak.

Akrasia

GooglePlus wrote: »

Status yellow wind and rain nationwide with it being orange for risk coastal areas.

According to Evelyn Cusack on VM1

Met.ie has no warnings yet apart from a marine warning

haminka

Akrasia wrote: »

Met.ie has no warnings yet apart from a marine warning

They have an advisory warning and will probably post an update during today. Bloody freezing this morning but sunny so we are in for a naughty tomorrow.

dsmythy

MrDerp wrote: »

Big upgrade? It’s staying a hurricane much closer to our shores than I had seen on previous advisories?

Seems to me a much bigger chance of red for the western counties for a few hours now.

That's hurricane force winds. It's already done being a hurricane.

kilkenny31

Are the marine warnings colour coded. If a large swell is expected to hit the coast is this covered by the marine warning or the weather warnings?

Say we have a scenario where the wind on the coast is an orange level but the storm brings very dangerous seas which threatened coastal towns what would the warning be?

windy shepard henderson

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

If we end up with just yellow and orange after we following this thing for a week lol. Am exhausted from it

It's mainly media overhyped that's stirring the talk of a red warning across the country, its a catagory 1 at the moment so by the time it hits us it's much weaker

The two big problems for met Éireann to worry about are costal flooding from storm surge and inland flooding from rain fall which could be serious enough

KingdomRushed

Compared to rapid cyclogenesis storms we get regularly in winter for instance Darwin this Lorenzo looks rather forecast to be rather bloated as it crosses Ireland. I think people are fixated on what it was (a category 5 hurricane) rather than what it will be, a rapidly disintegrating and messy storm. I don’t feel the potential here. The charts suggest something far less impactful than Ophelia even. I genuinely feel there’s a cognitive bias in play here.

DOCARCH

windy shepard henderson wrote: »

It's mainly media overhyped that's stirring the talk of a red warning across the country.

George Lee totally ramping in his report on Lorenzo on 8am news....repeated use of the word hurricane....'fierce winds'....and the like.

Quite at odds with the measured explanation of the situation and forecast by Matty M just before the 8am news.

Snow Garden

DOCARCH wrote: »

George Lee totally ramping in his report on Lorenzo on 8am news....repeated use of the work hurricane....'fierce winds'....and the like.

Quite at odds with the measured explanation of the situation and forecast by Matty M just before the 8am news.

George Lee is always like that. He was worse yesterday. I actually thought George was downgrading this morning slightly.

SleetAndSnow

Evelyn cusack On radio saying warnings out around 10am, high yellow with Orange on west coasts, subject to change

GooglePlus

Akrasia wrote: »

Met.ie has no warnings yet apart from a marine warning

She said they would be updated by 10am before saying that it would be nationwide yellow, with orange for affected coastal areas.

That's not saying something couldn't change, but unlikely if the head of forcasting has spilled the beans.

leahyl

The most annoying thing is when people give out constantly about Met Eireann - they just can't accept that some systems are just extremely difficult to forecast, Lorenzo being one of them. They think Met Eireann should be bang on with every forecast and if they are out by any bit at all, it's "let's all bash Met Eireann, they haven't a clue" :mad:

m17

All times are Ast which are 4 hours behind Irish time

odyboody

leahyl wrote: »

The most annoying thing is when people give out constantly about Met Eireann - they just can't accept that some systems are just extremely difficult to forecast, Lorenzo being one of them. They think Met Eireann should be bang on with every forecast and if they are out by any bit at all, it's "let's all bash Met Eireann, they haven't a clue" :mad:

Thing that gets me the is that most of these people don't actually get their forecasts from official Met forecasts but what some radio DJ, facebook or tabloid news paper. But it was met that got it wrong.

Pitch n Putt

After all the hype on main news and radio the last few days. We’re going with high yellow and orange for costal counties
I know it’s very hard for Met Éireann to nail down but I fear we’re going to get the usual warning upgrade once the storm is in progress
It’s too late then for people. Red on the coast and orange everywhere else and downgrade when in progress is a wiser move.

munsterlegend

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

After all the hype on main news and radio the last few days. We’re going with high yellow and orange for costal counties
I know it’s very hard for Met Éireann to nail down but I fear we’re going to get the usual warning upgrade once the storm is in progress
It’s too late then for people. Red on the coast and orange everywhere else and downgrade when in progress is a wiser move.

You have to go with what the guidance shows or else people lose total faith in warnings. As of now it’s not a red warning situation. GL mentioned a sting jet yesterday so it’s possible it could go red but unlikely it seems.

naughto

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

After all the hype on main news and radio the last few days. We’re going with high yellow and orange for costal counties
I know it’s very hard for Met Éireann to nail down but I fear we’re going to get the usual warning upgrade once the storm is in progress
It’s too late then for people. Red on the coast and orange everywhere else and downgrade when in progress is a wiser move.

If they go red it will close schools business etc orange will go about your business

kilkenny31

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

After all the hype on main news and radio the last few days. We’re going with high yellow and orange for costal counties
I know it’s very hard for Met Éireann to nail down but I fear we’re going to get the usual warning upgrade once the storm is in progress
It’s too late then for people. Red on the coast and orange everywhere else and downgrade when in progress is a wiser move.

This is how it should be done. The problem with this is Met Eireann tend to issue warnings by county. So if they go ahead an issue a red warning for all the counties along the west coast and the downgrade its likely schools and companies will have already taken the decision to close. Then the storm hits weaker then expected employers etc will complain.