Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

Laurali wrote: »

Would you guys mind posting some of the images, or linking to where you guys are getting this info? (So I can start learning where to look myself?)


I goodled GFs weather model and the website was super confusing - granted I didnt get long to look at it.


All I ever look at is Ventusky and I'd love to look at different models to learn/understand more

This website I built might be useful for you:
https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com/

It shows when the model runs are scheduled to occur, how far out they show in each run, and when you click to expand each row, you’ll see links to where you can view each of the models.

Might be slightly out of date as I think the ECM has extra runs now

ECMWF 06z run. Low center path from about Donegal Bay to Dublin with strongest winds to the south of it.



Not to be taken as gospel though. Track can and most likely will change.

bazlers wrote: »

Il ask these questions again because they seem to have gotten lost..

Wind speed strength wise is Lorenzo comparable to Ophelia or weaker when it reaches our latitude?

How much rainfall will it bring,
greater than 25mm perhaps?

Thanks.

Weaker than Ophelia for the most part, but can’t be sure until tomorrow (and intensity forecasts have been kind of flaky for most of this hurricane season, so I’m not sure I trust them even then).

bazlers wrote: »

Il ask these questions again because they seem to have gotten lost..

Wind speed strength wise is Lorenzo comparable to Ophelia or weaker when it reaches our latitude?

How much rainfall will it bring,
greater than 25mm perhaps?

Thanks.

Lorenzo will be lower.

I think regardless of what happens with Lorenzo i feel the real moral of this story is that twice in two years a hurricane has tracked northeastwards towards Ireland and remained as a hurricane until it got close to us (relatively).

It seems likely that this will become a more regular occurrence. I remember reading in the Irish Times after Ophelia that we should start getting used to these events and I thought it was an over reaction as it was a once in a generation event but the fact that its happening again so soon after suggests that we do need to get used to this.

kilkenny31 wrote: »

I think regardless of what happens with Lorenzo i feel the real moral of this story is that twice in two years a hurricane has tracked northeastwards towards Ireland and remained as a hurricane until it got close to us (relatively).

It seems likely that this will become a more regular occurrence. I remember reading in the Irish Times after Ophelia that we should start getting used to these events and I thought it was an over reaction as it was a once in a generation event but the fact that its happening again so soon after suggests that we do need to get used to this.

With sea temps increasing, does this increase the liklihood for huricanes retaining their status closer to our island or even as they hit?

Very good meteorologist's commentary by Met Éireann here

Some Harmonie charts from it.

DOCARCH wrote: »

Indeed....

Still showing as a hurricane ('H') just above latitude 50N which is = Cornwall.

That's very far north for it to be maintaining hurricane status:eek:

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Lorenzo will be lower.

Agreed on this. One thing of note is that Lorenzo will be striking 2 full weeks before Ophelia did. Almost all trees are in full leaf so even 100 kph gusts hitting trees laden with leaves, combined with fully saturated ground in all parts of the country could easily lead to a combination of large limbs of trees being broken and/or whole trees being uprooted from the soaking earth, helped by the giant sails that are currently on most trees.

Any further upgrades could mean a LOT of tree related damage to property and infrastructure. Even as it stands, I think power loss issues will be frequent, especially in rural areas where electricity supply is carried in overhead cables and usually run along the side of the road and usually with large trees immediately adjacent.

I would imagine Met Eireann will take into account trees in full leaf and saturated ground when issuing warnings.

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

All off topic posts removed ! all 19 of them !!!

But the cow uprighting one was really funny!

It is definitely cause for thought that two hurricanes are getting so close to us in 3 years. Perhaps its a fluke we'll never see the likes of for a long time, and perhaps not. I have quite a few trees around my house so storms do make me a bit nervous. We often have a look to see if we should knock any and decide against. We took down a good few when building.

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The arpege now also going for it. We have full model agreement now in the storm crossing Ireland. My experience is these ex hurricanes pack an extra punch. Time will tell.
As for the model battle you'd have to say the euros trounced the gfs

But I thought it was game over yesterday? :P

The question now is how quickly it turns inland and how quickly it fills, certainly going to pack a punch along the West coast.

The waves at Mullaghmore will be HUGE!

fits wrote: »

I have quite a few trees around my house so storms do make me a bit nervous. We often have a look to see if we should knock any and decide against

Same. I have a few that I had an arborist out to look at this summer. Two 200 year old Beech trees and a chestnut that's about 100 years old. All on an elevated bank over a small road. I'm in Wicklow so hoping that our position will keep the worst of the winds away. Even danger to people/property aside, it would be a terrible shame to lose such lovely trees.

On that point, I've seen quite a few charts in the thread showing the South East almost blocked off, avoiding the worst of this entirely. Is that due to the mountains breaking it or what?