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Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 Technical Discussion Only

Jpmarn

Starting a new thread on what is a tropical Hurricane Lorenzo which is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean south of the Azores. More details can be found in the Hurricane season Thread. I am giving Lorenzo it's own thread because at present models are bringing the Storm towards Ireland. Models at present are keeping out to sea with only minimal impact on Ireland at the moment. The latest model run are bringing the storm a bit closer to the west coast. If the storm in it’s extra tropical state should have a direct hit on Ireland it could generate wind gusts of over 160 Kmh. The storm is due nearest us next Thursday or Friday.

Mod Note:This thread is going to get very busy over the coming days and we would ask posters to adhere to the forum charter. Most importantly keep it civil and friendly. There will be no time for messing and it is imperative that the thread is not dragged off topic.

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Silent Running

Will the sea swell run ahead of the storm or will it be brought on by the storm passing?

Oasis1974

Daz_ wrote: »

Oasis1974 wrote: »

If the cows get blown over by the hurricane on there sides let say are they able to get up themselves or do they need help that's a serious question?

if this isn't a piss take then i don't know what is!

Why you have the answer then share it?

munsterlegend

Oasis1974 wrote: »

Why you have the answer then share it?

Depends on the cow. Some are very inflexible and lazy.

jopax

Is there any likelihood of a red warning for the south east??

Akrasia

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Orange a certainty for the Northwest as a minimum. We don't get all this hype for yellow warnings. The gfs and icon have upgraded a fair bit this morning.
I'm thinking nationwide yellow with a red coastal warning for west/northwest

This will be my first storm since I started work in a new Job where I can see Lahinch beach from the office window.

Kinda hoping it's only orange so I still have to go into work

jimmynokia

Dublin Live keep posting out some tripe still

bazlers

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The arpege now also going for it. We have full model agreement now in the storm crossing Ireland. My experience is these ex hurricanes pack an extra punch. Time will tell.
As for the model battle you'd have to say the euros trounced the gfs

Is Lorenzo looking weaker than what Ophelia produced? I mean even if it hits Ireland or not what are the forecasted winds when it hits out latitude?

4068ac1elhodqr

Come back in about 18hrs for any warnings, plenty of time to stock up on bread, and bottled water.

https://www.met.ie/warnings
Weather Advisory for Ireland:
There it a high probability that Storm Lorenzo will track close to or over Ireland later on Thursday and early Friday, giving high seas, severe winds and heavy rain.
Warnings will be issued Wednesday morning.

Loughc

jimmynokia wrote: »

Dublin Live keep posting out some tripe still

Ophelia and The Beast from The East still get milked dry by those sites, awful reporting.

Laurali

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The arpege now also going for it. We have full model agreement now in the storm crossing Ireland. My experience is these ex hurricanes pack an extra punch. Time will tell.
As for the model battle you'd have to say the euros trounced the gfs

Would you guys mind posting some of the images, or linking to where you guys are getting this info? (So I can start learning where to look myself?)

I goodled GFs weather model and the website was super confusing - granted I didnt get long to look at it.

All I ever look at is Ventusky and I'd love to look at different models to learn/understand more

Gaoth Laidir

Doown a smidgen to 100 mph (85 knots) now.

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...34.3N 39.0W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

Kermit.de.frog

The models converging now on landfall of the center anywhere Galway to north Donegal.

Potential red warning counties are along the immediate west coast. Elsewhere is max a high yellow or low orange. For now.

It's an evolving situation in terms of intensity and track but the options have narrowed a lot.

Much more certainty by tomorrow morning.

Gaoth Laidir

UKMO FAX charts from 12Z tomorrow to 12Z Friday.

Buachillsalach

@gaothlaidir just to let you know the Met Office have revised those charts since you posted.

munsterlegend

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The models converging now on landfall of the center anywhere Galway to north Donegal.

Potential red warning counties are along the immediate west coast. Elsewhere is max a high yellow or low orange. For now.

It's an evolving situation in terms of intensity and track but the options have narrowed a lot.

Much more certainty by tomorrow morning.

Usually there systems go further north that models predict so will be interesting to see what path Lorenzo takes.

Buachillsalach

"Potential red warning counties are along the immediate west coast. Elsewhere is max a high yellow or low orange"

I've run some models of my own and I'm getting more than a max High Yellow for the Midlands and western leinster. I think we could be in for it.

lleti

Deleted User wrote: »

Yep.

*****RED WARNING FOR DUBLIN*****

There ya go. Tell your boss a fella on the internet told you.

Dear sender,

I am out of office due to storm conditions with no access to email. I will reply on my return.

Regards,
lleti

IE 222

Emergency group to meet today, now.

http://www.rte.ie/news/weather/2019/1001/1079345-hurricane-lorenzo/

fits

Ah balls!. I've a lot of driving planned on Thursday. Hospital appointment in Waterford with my toddler in the morning (he's been waiting 6 months) and something else in clonmel that evening.

ninebeanrows

The trend today is south for sure.

No warnings issued as track so uncertain, areas of NW which at moment look likely to be hit hardest could end up north of the low centre if the current trend continues with the roughest weather moving further south into the midwest and southwest.

I don't see red from this.

But with trees in full leaf even a solid yellow wind event can cause some disruption.

bazlers

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The trend today is south for sure.

No warnings issued as track so uncertain, areas of NW which at moment look likely to be hit hardest could end up north of the low centre if the current trend continues with the roughest weather moving further south into the midwest and southwest.

I don't see red from this.

But with trees in full leaf even a solid yellow wind event can cause some disruption.

How much rain is forecast?

Mortelaro

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The trend today is south for sure.

No warnings issued as track so uncertain, areas of NW which at moment look likely to be hit hardest could end up north of the low centre if the current trend continues with the roughest weather moving further south into the midwest and southwest.

I don't see red from this.

But with trees in full leaf even a solid yellow wind event can cause some disruption.

Wait Wait..
Forecast consensus according to George lee on the RTÉ news at one there now is a direct hit on Ireland with tropical force winds

Emergency response committee meeting today

Mount Vesuvius

I think Red warnings will be issued on all along the Atlantic seaboard. Winds will be very strong here and sea surge and tides will be massive, flooding huge concern.

Away from coast it's more orange warning and mostly yellow for Leinster but as the depression crosses the country some places could see low end Orange levels too.

My badly inked thoughts.

pauldry

Its now serious

Getting too close to timeframe.

Why this mornings GFS went with virtual miss and latest goes with structural damage and fallen trees for North and West.

Stop playing games. Just say it will hit us

Why dont they just have latest feeds on Met Eireann website like BBC sport

E.g Lorenzo now 1500km away

Then keep adding updates like a feed. Then when it hits or not itl be like Ireland vs Japan and we will have all the build up game and aftermath.

bazlers

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

I think Red warnings will be issued on all along the Atlantic seaboard. Winds will be very strong here and sea surge and tides will be massive, flooding huge concern.

Away from coast it's more orange warning and mostly yellow for Leinster but as the depression crosses the country some places could see low end Orange levels too.

My badly inked thoughts.

Il ask these questions again because they seem to have gotten lost..

Wind speed strength wise is Lorenzo comparable to Ophelia or weaker when it reaches our latitude?

How much rainfall will it bring,
greater than 25mm perhaps?

Thanks.

ninebeanrows

10-20mm widely 30-40mm in exposed parts of west/northwest

fred funk }{

George Lee sounding very dooms-day like on RTE.

Graces7

Oasis1974 wrote: »

If the cows get blown over by the hurricane on there sides let say are they able to get up themselves or do they need help that's a serious question?

Out here the cattle will be in safe shelter during extreme weather.

If you ever see a sheep on its back, stop and rescue it please. when heavy with fleece they cannot get up

MJohnston

Laurali wrote: »

Would you guys mind posting some of the images, or linking to where you guys are getting this info? (So I can start learning where to look myself?)

I goodled GFs weather model and the website was super confusing - granted I didnt get long to look at it.

All I ever look at is Ventusky and I'd love to look at different models to learn/understand more

This website I built might be useful for you:
https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com/

It shows when the model runs are scheduled to occur, how far out they show in each run, and when you click to expand each row, you’ll see links to where you can view each of the models.

Might be slightly out of date as I think the ECM has extra runs now

[Deleted User]

Reading posts talking about 'high yellow', 'low orange' or 'seaboard red' but I don't recall met eireann make such subtle distinctions. Or is that new?