Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

sydthebeat · 22-09-2019 11:01am

sydthebeat wrote: »

i went a bit mad this weekend:

Handicap draw (ireland -9) ireland v scotland @ 25/1
treble (ireland -8, france-1, NZ -4.5) @5/1
japan -40 @ evens
Vakatawa to score a Try & France to win & over 43.5 Points @ 9/1
Matsushima to score 2 or more tries @ evens
japan to win between 41 - 50 points @ 5/1
earls top try scorer @ 33's

The treble and the matsushima bet have me in decent profit.

Funny that Ireland are gone from 10/1 to 7/1 immediately after that game.

sydthebeat · 22-09-2019 11:02am

Taken Jonny may to score a try in the first ten minutes @9s.... For the craic

The real mccoy 91 · 22-09-2019 12:06pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

The treble and the matsushima bet have me in decent profit.

Funny that Ireland are gone from 10/1 to 7/1 immediately after that game.

I think that happened yesterday after nz beat sa and the draw became clearer as England had drifted yesterday too

Pudsy33 · 23-09-2019 10:06am

First bet of the WC, gonna take Georgia +28.5 vs the Welsh

sydthebeat · 23-09-2019 10:22am

youd currently get Australia +2 against wales

at the rate at which Australia can score tries and as hard as Wales get to score tries, thats good value currently i think.
the only thing that would really spin it strongly into wales favour is a wet rainy day... which is whats being forecasted.. but we're six days out for any secure forecast.

ireland -56 against russia seems a bit over the top.
only NZ versus canada is a higher spread in this years RWC so far.... and we dont get it as easy to score tries.

franglan · 23-09-2019 2:52pm

Pudsy33 wrote: »

First bet of the WC, gonna take Georgia +28.5 vs the Welsh

Sick. Took +36 myself, which didn't look to good for a while too.

Pudsy33 · 23-09-2019 2:57pm

franglan wrote: »

Sick. Took +36 myself, which didn't look to good for a while too.

I'm surprised it was that close in the end given the first half!

Zzippy · 23-09-2019 4:21pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

ireland -56 against russia seems a bit over the top.
only NZ versus canada is a higher spread in this years RWC so far.... and we dont get it as easy to score tries.

A half-strength Connacht team put 42 points on Russia in Moscow 2 weeks ago. Although I think you're right that it seems over the top - the priority will be to get the bonus point secured then no injuries, so we may not go full gas to the end of the game.

sydthebeat · 23-09-2019 4:53pm

Zzippy wrote: »

A half-strength Connacht team put 42 points on Russia in Moscow 2 weeks ago. Although I think you're right that it seems over the top - the priority will be to get the bonus point secured then no injuries, so we may not go full gas to the end of the game.

yeah that would be my view... once the 4 try point is made... changes happen, game gets disrupted.... players minding themselves a bit....russia keep going for the pride points....

the only spread bet that was clearly beat was ireland, who were -8 and won by 24

Japan were -40, won by 20
aus -17, won by 18
england -45, won by 32
italy -34, won by 25
wales -29, won by 29

and the close ones
france -1, won by 2
NZ -8, won by 10

so on average the spread was negative 28, but positive 42.. which shows the underdogs did better than expected.

the spreads have expanded on average for the next few rounds, and i think on average they are still to0 wide against the underdogs.

(though i expect SA could put 80 on Namibia)

Bazzo · 23-09-2019 6:46pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

yeah that would be my view... once the 4 try point is made... changes happen, game gets disrupted.... players minding themselves a bit....russia keep going for the pride points....

the only spread bet that was clearly beat was ireland, who were -8 and won by 24

Japan were -40, won by 20
aus -17, won by 18
england -45, won by 32
italy -34, won by 25
wales -29, won by 29

and the close ones
france -1, won by 2
NZ -8, won by 10

so on average the spread was negative 28, but positive 42.. which shows the underdogs did better than expected.

the spreads have expanded on average for the next few rounds, and i think on average they are still to0 wide against the underdogs.

(though i expect SA could put 80 on Namibia)

Aus beating their handicap by a point isn't a close one?

sydthebeat · 23-09-2019 6:55pm

Bazzo wrote: »

Aus beating their handicap by a point isn't a close one?

I meant close spread before the game.

The real mccoy 91 · 26-09-2019 10:59am

Looking at cokanasinga for tries in the England game. With jj playing at 13 he is the ultimate creator in my eyes and cokanasinga won't be stopped 1v1.

Cokanasinga 2 or more tries 7/4
3 or more tries 6/1

sydthebeat · 26-09-2019 11:04am

where are you getting 7/4??

PP is 5/6 for 2 tries

aloooof · 26-09-2019 11:07am

And bet fair is 10/11. 3 or more is 16/5.

Rockbeast2 · 26-09-2019 11:25am

Billy V

First Try scorer(E/W)

11/1

PPs

Rockbeast2 · 26-09-2019 12:17pm

^ Yeah! :-)

sydthebeat · 26-09-2019 12:44pm

Rockbeast2 wrote: »

^ Yeah! :-)

nice one

What way is the EW bet split? is it quarter odds?

Rockbeast2 · 26-09-2019 12:50pm

^ E/W is quarter odds for try 1,2,or 3.

The real mccoy 91 · 26-09-2019 2:09pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

where are you getting 7/4??

PP is 5/6 for 2 tries

Bit late getting back to you now but 365 had him 7/4 for 2. Pp is by far the worst for tryscorers value 365 much better and boyles you can also double anytimes with boyles

The real mccoy 91 · 26-09-2019 2:18pm

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Bit late getting back to you now but 365 had him 7/4 for 2. Pp is by far the worst for tryscorers value 365 much better and boyles you can also double anytimes with boyles

Take the ireland game for example my tryscorer fancies atm with 0 research would be

Stockdale 1/2(pp) 8/13(boyles) 4/6(365)
2 or more 21/10(pp) 12/5(boyles) 3/1(365)

Ringrose 6/4 across all 3
2 or more 7/1(pp) 15/2(boyles) 10/1(365)

Farrell 11/5(pp) 21/10(boyles) 5/2(365)
2 or more 11/1(pp) 12/1(boyles) 20/1(365)

ClanofLams · 26-09-2019 5:08pm

Gone for 13-1 weekend accum of

Cheetahs
Dragons +17
Connacht
Georgia -17

All of Glasgow Munster and Scarlets missing double digit players at World Cup. Dragons beat Scarlets 34-17 in last pre season warmup, Dean Ryan taken over there could see some improvement.
Connacht best Munster by 9, were 23 up before subs.

Cheetahs made some good signings with new coach and won Currie cup and with Glasgow being weakened by World Cup can’t see them winning over there.

Think the 4 day turn around and adrenalin dump will kill Uruguay, can see that being heavy loss.

Rockbeast2 · 26-09-2019 5:12pm

^ I forgot P14 is back!

Must check squads and put on a few bets!

sydthebeat · 27-09-2019 12:27am

My confidence has grown. I think the Japanese will have one eye on the Scotland (and Samoa) game... And may perhaps be minding themselves a bit.

Ireland should be able to put in a TBP performance and keep the japs to about 10 points.

Ireland -21 @evens

Rockbeast2 · 27-09-2019 1:11am

* I agree with sydthebeat's optimism.

MikeCork2009 · 27-09-2019 4:41am

Rockbeast2 wrote: »

* I agree with sydthebeat's optimism.

Me too. I bet Ireland yesterday -20 @10/11

Rockbeast2 · 27-09-2019 7:31am

-20 ?!

Is that Ladsgobroke? I'm PPs.

Every point makes a huge difference. 5%?

Rockbeast2 · 27-09-2019 7:34am

*10/11 vs Evens

I will always take the wider spread where possible.

MikeCork2009 · 27-09-2019 7:46am

Rockbeast2 wrote: »

-20 ?!

Is that Ladsgobroke? I'm PPs.

Every point makes a huge difference. 5%?

That was with Bet365. It was -22 @ evens

Rockbeast2 · 27-09-2019 7:57am

I'm definitely going to open a couple new online accounts for quarters. +/-1 point is massive then.

sydthebeat · 27-09-2019 2:13pm

this weekend

RWC
ireland -21 @ evens
ireland to win 31-40 @9/2
1st tryscore L Mc Grath @16/1 e/w
1st tryscorer R Best @ 12/1 e/w

double SA -59, NZ -65 @ 7/2

pro14

Acca
cheetahs -6
treviso +14
connacht +2
ulster -13

@12/1

matt faddes anytime tryscorer @ 7/4

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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