Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

04-09-2019 04:44AM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Was going to post that. Why doesn't Brexit have its own forum rather than this mega thread?

At least that way we could have a dedicated thread for the brigade that keep telling us the EU are going to bottle it or throw us under the bus at the 11th hour (while forgetting that was in March 29th)

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057953333/1

My popular forum request but nothing happened.

Peregrinus · 04-09-2019 04:54AM

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

So do we think Boris Johnson will be able to call an election?

The whole point of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is to prevent a PM from calling an election on his own authority. There are a couple of routes to an early elecction, but they all involve votes in Parliament. Johnson is now running a minority government, and he can't call an early election except on terms that appeal to at least some opposition MPs.

Labour is indicating that they will support an early general election after the Bill to prevent a no-deal Brexit on 31 October has been enacted.

fash · 04-09-2019 05:58AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Suuure

THe EU will give Canada a free trade deal and keep the UK out in the cold, "kicking it forever".

How old are you and do you have any idea how the world works?

Any meaningful trade agreement with the UK needs unanimity from the EU - in addition to the backstop conditions (money, backstop, citizen rights)
Unanimity means the UK needs to make Spain happy (Gibraltar), France happy (fishing grounds), Romania happy (FOM) etc. - that is a lot for the UK to achieve. Easier for Canada which is far away and hasn't so much history to tidy up.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 07:18AM

fash wrote: »

Any meaningful trade agreement with the UK needs unanimity from the EU - in addition to the backstop conditions (money, backstop, citizen rights)
Unanimity means the UK needs to make Spain happy (Gibraltar), France happy (fishing grounds), Romania happy (FOM) etc. - that is a lot for the UK to achieve. Easier for Canada which is far away and hasn't so much history to tidy up.

UK have been clear on citizens rights, all that are in the UK at present will be allowed to say.

Free movement ending is central to the vote leave. Economically the UK needs the freedom to have an independent trade policy.

woohoo!!! · 04-09-2019 07:21AM

Baldricks, I mean Cummings cunning plan hasn't quite worked out I see. Corbyn showing smarts, ensuring that Johnson reaps what he sows.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 07:22AM

fash wrote: »

Any meaningful trade agreement with the UK needs unanimity from the EU - in addition to the backstop conditions (money, backstop, citizen rights)
Unanimity means the UK needs to make Spain happy (Gibraltar), France happy (fishing grounds), Romania happy (FOM) etc. - that is a lot for the UK to achieve. Easier for Canada which is far away and hasn't so much history to tidy up.

Gibraltar is British, Spain can try and take it. They would be as useful as the Argies on that front.

Why does a nation leaving the EU NEED to keep the french fisherman happy? You are saying they can't leave the EU, they can't vote to leave, they are not allowed, its a prison. That just makes it more likely. Fishing rights are the UKs gift.

They must keep Romania happy on freedom of movement? This is one of the main reasons for the vote. Not gonna happen.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 07:23AM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Baldricks, I mean Cummings cunning plan hasn't quite worked out I see. Corbyn showing smarts, ensuring that Johnson reaps what he sows.

Jumping between LBC, Talk Radio and reading UK news sources this morning has none agree with you.

Valhallapt · 04-09-2019 07:24AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

UK have been clear on citizens rights, all that are in the UK at present will be allowed to say.

Free movement ending is central to the vote leave. Economically the UK needs the freedom to have an independent trade policy.

Saw a Portuguese news clip earlier, had a woman on it who is Portuguese and spend the last 30 years in England, she’s been told she’s not allowed settled status, she launched a tirade into the camera about how unfair and nasty England had become. It’s not going to play out well on Portuguese outlets. Even if the eventually fix this mess, the damage done to the UKs reputation will take decades to repair.

Tories used to be known as the nasty party, they have succeeded in turning England into the nasty country.

amacca · 04-09-2019 07:28AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Why does a nation leaving the EU NEED to keep the french fisherman happy? You are saying they can't leave the EU, they can't vote to leave, they are not allowed, its a prison. That just makes it more likely. Fishing rights are the UKs gift.

They must keep Romania happy on freedom of movement? This is one of the main reasons for the vote. Not gonna happen.

because trade deals generally have give and take in them

when the UK tries to strike them outside of the EU, these might end up being some of the things they have to compromise on to get a deal

thats why a lot of people think brexit = retarded....give up a strong negotiating position for a weaker one

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 07:29AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Saw a Portuguese news clip earlier, had a woman on it who is Portuguese and spend the last 30 years in England, she’s been told she’s not allowed settled status, she launched a tirade into the camera about how unfair and nasty England had become. It’s not going to play out well on Portuguese outlets. Even if the eventually fix this mess, the damage done to the UKs reputation will take decades to repair.

Tories used to be known as the nasty party, they have succeeded in turning England into the nasty country.

That is a red herring. That is the portugese actress with the theatre company who can't fill in a basic form and has a further year to fill in the form.

Media debucked that one so much that 8 year olds got it

Fionn1952 · 04-09-2019 07:30AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

fash wrote: »

Any meaningful trade agreement with the UK needs unanimity from the EU - in addition to the backstop conditions (money, backstop, citizen rights)
Unanimity means the UK needs to make Spain happy (Gibraltar), France happy (fishing grounds), Romania happy (FOM) etc. - that is a lot for the UK to achieve. Easier for Canada which is far away and hasn't so much history to tidy up.

Gibraltar is British, Spain can try and take it. They would be as useful as the Argies on that front.

Why does a nation leaving the EU NEED to keep the french fisherman happy? You are saying they can't leave the EU, they can't vote to leave, they are not allowed, its a prison. That just makes it more likely. Fishing rights are the UKs gift.

They must keep Romania happy on freedom of movement? This is one of the main reasons for the vote. Not gonna happen.

They NEED to keep the French/Spanish/Romanian/rest of the EU countries happy if they want any sort of meaningful trade deal, because they'll be depending on those people to vote to approve said trade deal.

As always, the UK are totally within their rights to scrap everything, go it alone and operate on WTO terms with the EU.....everyone with a bit of cop on, including the very government pushing towards it are aware that this would be a very economically damaging strategy.

I've no idea how many negotiations you've been part of, but generally it's not a great strategy for the applicant in a negotiation to transparently antagonise the group they're trying to negotiate with.

There's a very large line between presenting a position of strength and a willingness to walk away (certainly a positive in negotiations) and deliberately being antagonistic, insulting and essentially laying the seeds of propaganda against the entity which you're negotiating with.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 07:30AM

amacca wrote: »

because trade deals generally have give and take in them

when the UK tries to strike them outside of the EU, these might end up being some of the things they have to compromise on to get a deal

thats why a lot of people think brexit = retarded....give up a strong negotiating position for a weaker one

So what is the EU giving? Someone here said earlier that the EU will kick the british people forever and the UK will have to take it with no reaction. What has the EU given?

listermint · 04-09-2019 07:31AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Jumping between LBC, Talk Radio and reading UK news sources this morning has none agree with you.

I've a feeling your only following sources that appeal to you. I mean no offence but you appear to inhabit a dream world of libertarian fantasy.

You would love the likes of the EU to break up so you can engage in small fry trading of pirate companies purchasing up distressed assets. All off the back of your ordinary working person. It's a get rich quick scheme for someone of your thought process. I don't base this on yesterday's interactions it's the general gist of the posts you make here and elsewhere.

You don't care a jot for the ordinary Brit or what they voted for. You don't really care for freedom of movement or immigration. It's all the means to an outcome. Money. How can I bend this to make me money.

No different to Mogg types. Transparent as hell and easy to get around. There's no depth there. Act like their playing 3D chess but basically they are motivated by greed.

Roger_007 · 04-09-2019 07:32AM

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.
- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.
- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

murphaph · 04-09-2019 07:33AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

That is a red herring. That is the portugese actress with the theatre company who can't fill in a basic form and has a further year to fill in the form.

Media debucked that one so much that 8 year olds got it

Yeah there's absolutely no hostile environment. :rolleyes:

lawred2 · 04-09-2019 07:33AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

So what is the EU giving? Someone here said earlier that the EU will kick the british people forever and the UK will have to take it with no reaction. What has the EU given?

Well scale matters and the EU doesn't really need to give a whole lot

Fionn1952 · 04-09-2019 07:34AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

amacca wrote: »

because trade deals generally have give and take in them

when the UK tries to strike them outside of the EU, these might end up being some of the things they have to compromise on to get a deal

thats why a lot of people think brexit = retarded....give up a strong negotiating position for a weaker one

So what is the EU giving? Someone here said earlier that the EU will kick the british people forever and the UK will have to take it with no reaction. What has the EU given?

Access to the EU markets, a completely unprecedented watering down of their rules by allowing the backstop (at the British suggestion), then further compromising on their stance to allow that backstop to be expanded to include the entire UK.

The biggest issue is NO ONE knows what the British want, including their own government, apart from, 'all the benefits with none of the drawbacks', which obviously can't and won't fly.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 07:34AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.
- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.
- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

You are only the 2nd poster who is using the head not their heart and can see what is happening.

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

cryptocurrency · 04-09-2019 07:37AM

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Access to the EU markets, a completely unprecedented watering down of their rules by allowing the backstop (at the British suggestion), then further compromising on their stance to allow that backstop to be expanded to include the entire UK.

The biggest issue is NO ONE knows what the British want, including their own government, apart from, 'all the benefits with none of the drawbacks', which obviously can't and won't fly.

The EU does have many drawbacks we all know that.

The public is so battle hardened the "complete watering down" will not happen as the next parliament will be voted in by a venomously anti EU public at that stage.

Beyond dangerous.

woejus · 04-09-2019 07:37AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You are only the 2nd poster who is using the head not their heart and can see what is happening.

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

Do you know what the public want? Did you ask every single UK voter? Or do you rely on polls? What are the polls telling us about remain/leave preferences now?

murphaph · 04-09-2019 07:38AM

With the current numbers the logical next step is a VonC and then a caretaker PM I would have imagined, to pull the emergency brake. The Queen would be only to happy to appoint someone other than Johnson as her next PM I'm sure, even Comrade Corbyn, given what Johnson pulled with the proroguing business. She knows he has lied to her.

If Corbyn could put his ego aside and let Ken Clarke step up to be caretaker PM (he's declared he is willing and now he will not even be a Tory!) this could all be contained, an extension sought on the basis of another referendum with leave with no deal/revoke on the ballot as these are the actual choices available and leave with no deal absolutely must be an option or this will rumble on.

declanflynn · 04-09-2019 07:41AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Baldricks, I mean Cummings cunning plan hasn't quite worked out I see. Corbyn showing smarts, ensuring that Johnson reaps what he sows.

Jumping between LBC, Talk Radio and reading UK news sources this morning has none agree with you.

Well they wouldn't

L1011 · 04-09-2019 07:42AM

theguzman wrote: »

Agreed and their solution, throw Ireland under the bus wait and see. Murmurings of no support to come from Europe already. They will accept us as the collateral damage for whatever deal they strike with boris. I expect the RoI to be excluded from the customs union. Easier to put checks in French ports coming to and from Ireland than even bothering with the NI Border which is quiet frankly like something from the Wild West and impossible to police and secure.

Didn't happen before the last deadline. Won't happen before the next one. Fantasyland stuff that has been rabbitted here for 3 years.

The deal for Boris to decide on is the one that is already on the table with the option of varying to an NI only backstop. That's it. And it's the deal he'll be offered if he comes looking from outside too.

woohoo!!! · 04-09-2019 07:43AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Baldricks, I mean Cummings cunning plan hasn't quite worked out I see. Corbyn showing smarts, ensuring that Johnson reaps what he sows.

Jumping between LBC, Talk Radio and reading UK news sources this morning has none agree with you.

The opposition needs to take over, install a temporary PM etc. But I don't think they have the numbers. Therefore next thing is GE and ensure BP are in play to take seats off Tories, once the Benn Bill is enacted.

listermint · 04-09-2019 07:44AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You are only the 2nd poster who is using the head not their heart and can see what is happening.

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

Their isnt the same appetite for hard exit that you think. After successive leaks and reports released recently the middle ground voter. Won't be swayed into smashing up their own jobs and home. It's the economy stupid. I think you've a habit of listening to polls that you like and ignoring the ones you don't.

The world has moved on to reality since 2016. The destruction of manufacturing in the UK he increase of average Spanish holiday by over 700 quid won't pay into your mantra of a landslide exit victory.

I think you might be surprised and the wait to invest in destructed assets will be a long one.

Thankfully. I love to see vultures loose money. And the Tories has a bulk of them.

Akrasia · 04-09-2019 07:44AM

Naggdefy wrote: »

Right. Getting the flu during the winter knocks someone out of your souped up testosterone superior group. If you say that about people with the flu I can only imagine your attitude to those with mental health problems. Churchill wouldn't even make the cut. Your tending towards extreme facism.

By the way Johnson, Rees Mogg etc are all fops. Not much testosterone on display from the Brexiteer MPs.

It’s like how A short skinny brown haired brown eyed Austrian became the supreme dictator in a movement that glorified tall blonde blue eyed Ayrians.

People who get taken in by right wing populism and the politics of fear hatred and victim hood are authoritarians who just believe anything that comes out of the mouth of their strong man politician without ever checking to see if it’s true or even makes logical sense

Stop moaning ffs · 04-09-2019 07:45AM

Wonder how engaged the electorate will be if a GE is called. We only ever hear the vocal ends of the extremes, the vast majority of people in the uk are beyond browned off with all of it.

Turnout could go either way no? Record highs or lows

Ps are the mods on holiday? For the love of god let’s do a voodoo rain dance and manifest them

20silkcut · 04-09-2019 07:46AM

theguzman wrote: »

The ordinary brit would have no time for the Parliamentarians who they see as now blocking the will of the people. Boris and Farage will drink a few pints of Ale together on the campaign trail, and tell the people you can choose these liberals or us. Jeremy Corbyn will propose something so outrageous that the Northern Labour working class will vote Tory and Brexit instead of Labour who are more concerned with virtue signalling and ignoring the referendum result than day to day stuff. Add in jingoism, patriotism, casual racism and the Tories will likely increase their vote. Hard Brexit here we come I think. Jacob Rees Mogg is actually very entertaining and witty and he add character. Expect another Trumpian victory here.

Mogg not doing himself any favors over the last few days with his petulance on LBC and stretching himself out on the bench in the commons. Really displayed a distinct sense of arrogance and boredom and disrespect to his fellow parliamentarians and the viewing public.
Unless there is some medical reason for him having to be in a horizontal position it does not reflect well on him.
In any public gathering whether it be a school classroom or public meeting for someone to adopt such an exaggerated outward posture of arrogant boredom is distracting and unacceptable. I know MPs fall asleep in the commons but there is a big difference between dozing in an upright position and stretching yourself out on the front bench with the eyes of the world watching.

Zubeneschamali · 04-09-2019 07:46AM

cryptocurrency wrote: »

It's all about "the level playing field" which they know without the UK will make utter mince meat of them on global trade.

It is certainly true that a level playing field will be an issue in Free Trade Agreement talks if we ever get to them - a Tory UK might be tempted to have a bonfire of workers rights, environmental regulations, safety regulations, company law and civil liberties in order to lift "red tape" and make the UK into a sort of Singapore off Europe. This would allow UK based business to slash costs and compete unfairly with EU businesses who have to cost in treating workers like actual human beings, respecting the environment and paying at least some taxes.

But of all the entities in the world to try and pull that BS on, the EU is the least likely to fall for it. The big economic blocs are the US, the EU, and China - and of the three, it is the EU that is the big one on these sorts of rules. So you can absolutely guarantee that IF the UK ever Brexits, and comes to the EU looking for a trade deal (which they will desperately need) the EU will have the whole level playing field set out in black and white before David Davis or whoever finds a pen and paper.

L1011 · 04-09-2019 07:47AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.
- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.
- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

"Smoked out the remoaners" by ending up with an opposition majority of 43, possibly more to come, and very likely going out of Government with an opposition having the rest of the mandate til '22 if they want

It takes some balls to try spin this as a win.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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