Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Dymo

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ps are the mods on holiday? For the love of god let’s do a voodoo rain dance and manifest them

I have a certain person on ignore but it's pointless as everybody quotes them and they're ruining the thread again.

Roger_007

One beneficial outcome of the expulsion of 21 Tory MPs from the parliamentary party, (and the defection of another one), is that the DUP have now absolutely no leverage.
Maybe now they might stop ignoring the wishes of the people of NI.

Peregrinus

Roger_007 wrote: »

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.

They didn't require much "smoking out"; they weren't exactly hiding.

As for having got rid of them, that may turn out to be not such a good idea. Apart from giving the government a "majority" of -43, their brutal treatment (in comparison with the lenience that ultra-brexiter rebels enjoyed) may alienate a lot of moderate Tory voters.

Roger_007 wrote: »

- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.

I'm afraid this is just delusional. Notoriously, the EU has offered them a deal. They've rejected it, they say they want something else, they insist that it is for them to say what the "something else" is, they reaffirm that the onus is o them to come up with the "something else"; they utterly fail to propose any "something else". Not even the most one-eyed ultra-Brexiter is going to be able to persuade himself, never mind anyone else, that this is the EU refusing to offer them a deal. It's the UK refusing to ask for one.

Roger_007 wrote: »

- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

Well, possibly. Or possibly not.

I agree that Johnson's objective was always an early election. But that wasn't because this was a particularly good option open to him; it's just because it was the least awful. Above all else, Johnson wants to be PM. But he had a deeply divided party with a majority (until yesterday) of 1. That wasn't sustainable. The only way to improve the situation was to bring about a general election, and win it. But winning it was never going to be a sure thing.

He has now succeeded in bringing about a general election, but possibly not in the circumstances he would have wished. (He would have preferred a GE just after Brexit had been implemented.) And possibly the things he has done to bring it about will further reduce his prospects of winning it.

I've already pointed to the alienation of moderate Tory voters by purging the parliamentary party of those who oppose a no-deal Brexit. But Johnson has a bigger problem.

Currently BXP is polling in the 10%-15% range. Those votes mostly come from the Tory party. If that holds up, BXP will win few or no seats, but they will cost the Tories many. UKIP won 12.5% of the vote in 2015 and won 1 seat, but cost the Tories about 50. Johnson can't win if that happens again.

So he has to neutralise BXP. (That's why he would have preferred to hold the election after Brexit.) Farage has indicated that BXP will do an election deal with the Tories if the Tories commit to no-deal Brexit.

Johnson probably is targetting a no-deal Brexit, but he has never said so; he has always posed as wanting a deal. The reason is, again, the moderate Tories who value old-fashioned virtues like fresh food, jobs, solvency and cancer medication. If Johnson targets no-deal Brexit, he will drive a lot of Tory voters to stay at home or, worse, vote Lib Dem.

The truth is that while supporters of a no-deal Brexit are passionate and noisy, they are not numerous enough to win a general election. Johnson has to lead a Tory party which has a wider appeal than that, or it will be very difficult for him to win. Which is why engineering an election that turns into a "no-deal Brexit vs every other option" could be a very bad idea.

amacca

cryptocurrency wrote: »

So what is the EU giving? Someone here said earlier that the EU will kick the british people forever and the UK will have to take it with no reaction. What has the EU given?

Access to a very large market essentially...

The UK don't seem to want it

declanflynn

Roger_007 wrote: »

My thinking on what has gone on since Boris became PM is that everything that Boris/Cummings wished for has been achieved:-
- They have smoked out the chief 'remoaners' in the Tory party and got rid of them.
- They don't really want a deal but they have succeeded in placing the blame on the EU for not offering them a deal.
- They have engineered a situation where a GE is inevitable, (they have been 'forced' into it). This was the main objective all along.

So far, so good as far as Boris & Co. are concerned.

Cummings and depaffel took a bad beating last nite old chap

prunudo

Given that Brexit fatigue and general ignorance to the facts seem to be a huge problem with British electorate I can't see an election working out well for the remain candidates.
Given what I've seen from vox pops and interviews many people want to get it done and out of the way even without realising or caring (for now) the consequences of what a no deal or hard deal means. It's a dangerous mind set so be so flippant with such important issues but plays well into those that want to leave.
And anyone who thinks that Brexit will cease to be mentioned once its happened needs to think again. Either way there'll be many more twists in the coming months.

c.p.w.g.w

Is there anyway for the EU can not grand an extension?

declanflynn

prunudo wrote: »

Given that Brexit fatigue and general ignorance to the facts seem to be a huge problem with British electorate I can't see an election working out well for the remain candidates.
Given what I've seen from vox pops and interviews many people want to get it done and out of the way even without realising or caring (for now) the consequences of what a no deal or hard deal means. It's a dangerous mind set so be so flippant with such important issues but plays well into those that want to leave.
And anyone who thinks that Brexit will cease to be mentioned once its happened needs to think again. Either way there'll be many more twists in the coming months.

About 22% of the Brits want a no deal Brexit, so Tories are finished if the go with a no deal manifesto

amacca

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The EU does have many drawbacks we all know that.

Everything has many drawbacks ...thats life. To me when choosing options its a question of choosing the option with the least drawbacks

The brexit option has a lot more drawbacks which are becoming clearer by the day to those who advocated for it because they liked the idea rather than because it furthered their own ends

Theres the problem as I see it. Brexit is an ideology...its seductive especially if you've been brainwashed by pop;ar opinion/media over the years...its not a winning strategy........

if it was both it wouldn't be floundering right now and would have happened.

cryptocurrency wrote: »

The public is so battle hardened the "complete watering down" will not happen as the next parliament will be voted in by a venomously anti EU public at that stage.

Beyond dangerous.

Perhaps....I hope a majority are not that misguided. If it happens its an even bigger indictment of british establishment, media imo....plummy accents, oratorial skills and stiff upper lips aside.

woejus

Originally Posted by Stop moaning ffs
Ps are the mods on holiday? For the love of god let’s do a voodoo rain dance and manifest them

Dymo wrote: »

I have a certain person on ignore but it's pointless as everybody quotes them and they're ruining the thread again.

Stop moaning FFS!

It is interesting though. It's like when a load of lads on a stag get on the train, the atmosphere changes instantly.

LeinsterDub

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Is there anyway for the EU can not grand an extension?

27 ways in fact. An extension must be agreed by all members.

circadian

declanflynn wrote: »

About 22% of the Brits want a no deal Brexit, so Tories are finished if the go with a no deal manifesto

I don't think Johnstons Tories give a toss about surviving this. A hard exit is their goal, it's just a cash grab for these charlatans and any opportunity to protect their offshore funds will be taken.

Johnstons behaviour shows that he has absolutely no intention of anything other than a hard exit, regardless of the opinion of the majority of Parliament.

Roger_007

L1011 wrote: »

"Smoked out the remoaners" by ending up with an opposition majority of 43, possibly more to come, and very likely going out of Government with an opposition having the rest of the mandate til '22 if they want

It takes some balls to try spin this as a win.

Creating a situation where a GE is inevitable sooner rather than later is the main objective. This has to come about where Boris has to appear that he's been dragged kicking and screaming into having an election.
He has to appear that he's been thwarted by an unrepresentative Parliament from carrying out the wishes of the British people.
He has to appear that he, and he alone, will be the saviour of Britain from the forces of the big bad EU.
He has to paint the EU as being the enemies of Britain. He's already accusing the opposition of surrendering to the EU.
The calculation by Johnson/Cummings is that Boris would win a handsome majority by appealing to the nationalistic sentiment of the voters and be unassailable for 5 years if not more.

Zubeneschamali

declanflynn wrote: »

Cummings and depaffel took a bad beating last nite old chap

Ah, but the Cummings fanclub have convinced themselves that no matter what happens, everything is proceeding as he has foreseen.

Rebel Alliance attacking the Death Star Government's control of Parliament? All part of the plan.

No Deal ruled out? That was what Boris wanted, he just couldn't do it himself!

Election? Ha ha! Boris eats elections for breakfast!

Of course, the same people already have a narrative ready if the opposite happens - Rebel Alliance fails, Boris wins! No Deal crashout likely - that was the plan all along, Boris only pretended to want a deal! Election blocked - Ha! Ha! Boris is still PM!

7 dimensional chess, people!

The fact is that Boris is the first PM to lose his first Commons vote in over a hundred and twenty years. He is on course to be the shortest serving PM ever. His performance yesterday made Theresa May look strong and stable and Cameron look clever.

He is really bad at this Prime Ministering thing, just as he was a disastrous Foreign Secretary and a hopeless Mayor. He wasn't even a good MP, and was fired from his first journamalism job for literally making sh!t up.

If he wasn't an Eton/Oxford posh boy we would never have heard of him in any capacity, but that is the UK class system for you.

Quin_Dub

##Mod Note##

All, the standard of posting over the last 36hrs or so has been very very poor.

Cut out the memes, the name calling and the one liners

There have been a few cards and bans given out already.

It's a fast moving emotive topic, but let's stay civil and stick to the forum rules please.

Thanks

L1011

Roger_007 wrote: »

Creating a situation where a GE is inevitable sooner rather than later is the main objective. This has to come about where Boris has to appear that he's been dragged kicking and screaming into having an election.
He has to appear that he's been thwarted by an unrepresentative Parliament from carrying out the wishes of the British people.
He has to appear that he, and he alone, will be the saviour of Britain from the forces of the big bad EU.
He has to paint the EU as being the enemies of Britain. He's already accusing the opposition of surrendering to the EU.
The calculation by Johnson/Cummings is that Boris would win a handsome majority by appealing to the nationalistic sentiment of the voters and be unassailable for 5 years if not more.

And all this is playing to a subset of the population that is not guaranteed to return him to Westminster as an MP let alone as PM.

It's not a victory. The fact that Boris is being played by a shambling depiction of, well, something of a strategist who isn't even a member of his party let alone a member of Government will not go down well and he's provided plenty of ammunition to turn many against him and his party

No pact with Farage will be forthcoming whoyle Cummings is there either.

Dyr

bilston wrote: »

I hope the Alliance Party think long and hard about any electoral pact with Sinn Fein. They have won over many moderate Unionists. Doing a deal with SF could jeopardize that.

All the SF need to do is stand aside and let Alliance have a run at the DUP in certain seats.

There are unionists who'll baulk at voting for anyone who do a deal with SF but you might find its less than you'd imagine

VinLieger

cryptocurrency wrote: »

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

That is complete and utter bo11ox, remain MP's have been consistently saying parliament was sovereign ever since the Supreme court delivered its judgement in November 2016 that Parliament had to vote to pass article 50 to deliver notice of Brexit.

In fact it was Leave MP's who were angry at the judges for confirming parliament was sovereign and along with the right wing rags called the judges "the enemies of the people".

Btw historical revisionism only works when the truth wasn't plastered all over the front of the right wing propagandist rags.

Stop moaning ffs

Bambi wrote: »

All the SF need to do is stand aside and let Alliance have a run at the DUP in certain seats.

There are unionists who'll baulk at voting for anyone who do a deal with SF but you might find its less than you'd imagine

That poll yesterday showed DUP losing three seats to the alliance.
SF would have to publicly say they’re not going to contest the seats. That doesn’t guarantee SF voters will go alliance and it could also mobilize the DUP base who are livid with them right now but might forgive them if they were under threat of losing seats.

It’s a very risky play for all but the alliance.

Stop moaning ffs

Speaking of. DUP about to get gutted in the election. Quick. Find a positive spin asap
*the comments

https://twitter.com/bbcnewsni/status/1169124235400425474?s=21

bobmalooka

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That poll yesterday showed DUP losing three seats to the alliance.
SF would have to publicly say they’re not going to contest the seats. That doesn’t guarantee SF voters will go alliance and it could also mobilize the DUP base who are livid with them right now but might forgive them if they were under threat of losing seats.

It’s a very risky play for all but the alliance.

DUP have been chomping at any chance to make this a green/orange issue.
I think it would be very foolish to cede that ground to DUP at this stage - it’s their only route to mitigate from the damage they’ve done to themselves

RickBlaine

The BBC has a rough timetable for today's events.

It says the first vote for the bill will be at 17:00 and a second round at 19:00.

Why will there be two rounds of voting for the bill?

is_that_so

RickBlaine wrote: »

The BBC has a rough timetable for today's events.

It says the first vote for the bill will be at 17:00 and a second round at 19:00.

Why will there be two rounds of voting for the bill?

Here's the timeline of bills.
https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/laws/passage-bill/commons/coms-commons-first-reading/

Igotadose

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The fact is that Boris is the first PM to lose his first Commons vote in over a hundred and twenty years. He is on course to be the shortest serving PM ever. His performance yesterday made Theresa May look strong and stable and Cameron look clever.

Is he the first PM whose first piece of legislation he proposed, is to dissolve the government? So, basically PM for a day or two, depending on whether that legislation passes? I know that it'll be much longer, as first the 'no to no deal' bill gets through HoL, but basically, all Boris'll have done, is become PM, and then leave the job through his own volition. Impressive, kind of keeps the theme of the Conservative party's goal to actually do nothing while in power.

Nody

prunudo wrote: »

Given that Brexit fatigue and general ignorance to the facts seem to be a huge problem with British electorate I can't see an election working out well for the remain candidates.
Given what I've seen from vox pops and interviews many people want to get it done and out of the way even without realising or caring (for now) the consequences of what a no deal or hard deal means. It's a dangerous mind set so be so flippant with such important issues but plays well into those that want to leave.
And anyone who thinks that Brexit will cease to be mentioned once its happened needs to think again. Either way there'll be many more twists in the coming months.

Try decades; this is by far a non exhaustive list and applies both if Brexit happens (in any form) or gets cancelled.

• Every time a trade deal is signed
• Every election stating how they protected/betrayed the people and were for/against it
• Every time a business announces they are shutting down / setting something up it will be linked to Brexit
• Ongoing sob stories about "insert person" who can't get "insert medical treatment" due to Brexit (either not eligblie for trial or medical laws stopping it)
• Upcoming finance related scandals were the state has to step in some form
• Any food standard issues such as the horse meat scandal
• Any issues with buldings or rivers etc.

In short the list is very very long of items that will be connected to Brexit one way or the other of the next couple of decades even if they may not really be connected. Brexit discussions are not going anywhere...

woejus

Nody wrote: »

Try decades; this is by far a non exhaustive list and applies both if Brexit happens (in any form) or gets cancelled.

I don't know... most people didn't know wtf the EU was prior to 2015. Brexit was a protest vote in some ways, as covered upthread. If Brexit dies, the cohort of those most aggrieved are in the majority old and beyond rioting, and on the way out themselves.

A50 revocation would be wrenching, yes, but if the Tories shook the magic money tree as promised a few weeks back, it might smooth things over until the bitterest of Brexit voters die off.

Younger voters have more on their plate (kids / jobs) to be listening to the DM telling them how to think. It might fade away quicker than any lasting effects
of implementation of Brexit will, from BRINO to no-deal free-trade fantasy land Brexit.

Igotadose

Sir Philip Lee says he switched to LibDem, because he heard JRM's conversation with the Neurologist who asked him what was an acceptable mortality rate due to Brexit and JRM behaved badly in the interview. https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/eddie-mair/philip-lee-defects-after-lbc-caller/

Now that JRM's in the public spotlight, the world's getting to learn what an odious 'Dickensian Cosplayer' he is. I imagine he swayed some votes for the no-deal block bill, due to his performance last night.

Hopefully there's an election and he's gone. Maybe his constituents see the light. What a turd.

lawred2

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Speaking of. DUP about to get gutted in the election. Quick. Find a positive spin asap
*the comments

https://twitter.com/bbcnewsni/status/1169124235400425474?s=21

yeah nobody buying it in those comments

awec

cryptocurrency wrote: »

You are only the 2nd poster who is using the head not their heart and can see what is happening.

Remain MPs are only saying parliament is sovereign now and refuse to acknowledge an election or what the public want. Telling. This current sitting is their only hope and they know it.

If there was widespread support for a hard brexit we wouldn't be in this situation. The situation in the house of commons is a fair reflection of society at large, a country that is split with no clear majority for any outcome, as much as it pains brexiteers to admit it.

Do you really believe that MPs are getting thousands of letters and phone calls from their constituents demanding a hard brexit, and that they're simply ignoring them? This is truly fantastical stuff.

Johnson will have to be careful. The tories learnt the hard way the last time what happens when you call an election when you think you have a stronger hand than you really do.

Patser

Rory Stewart on Sky news just there, being asked about Rees-Mogg's lounging around last night

'Yes, it is a strangely 18th century attitude to have, but then again he is a representative of the period'