Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

is_that_so · 01-09-2019 12:22PM

briany wrote: »

It'll be the easiest deal in history
It's a million to one shot we won't get a deal
I'm optimistic about a deal
Maybe we won't get a deal
We probably won't get a deal
There's a good chance of no-deal
Prepare for no-deal

I said all along that we wouldn't get a deal

I voted for no-deal

How? The referendum question was on exiting the EU. You get no say in the deal no matter how many times you click your heels together.

CelticRambler · 01-09-2019 12:23PM

briany wrote: »

I said all along that we wouldn't get a deal

I voted for no-deal

IDS on Sky had a version of this: Everyone knew they were voting for no-deal, because David Cameron said that if we voted to leave, we'd be out in the cold and our economy would be destroyed, but people still voted to leave.

Uhhh, didn't you describe that as "Project Fear" and tell people not to believe in such nonsensical doom and gloom?

briany · 01-09-2019 12:25PM

is_that_so wrote: »

How? The referendum question was on exiting the EU. You get no say in the deal no matter how many times you click your heels together.

Oh, they discussed all that before the referendum, apparently. Didn't bother writing it down on the referendum ballot, mind you. Complexities like "EFTA isn't part of the EU" probably went over the head of your average Brexit voter.

is_that_so · 01-09-2019 12:30PM

briany wrote: »

Oh, they discussed all that before the referendum, apparently. Didn't bother writing it down on the referendum ballot, mind you. Complexities like "EFTA isn't part of the EU" probably went over the head of your average Brexit voter.

That's not how referenda work. People come up with all sorts of nonsense before them. If it's not on the paper then it's not part of the question you voted on. All you voted for was to leave.

briany · 01-09-2019 12:32PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's not how referenda work. People come with all sorts of nonsense before them. If it's not on the paper then it's not part of the question you voted on. All you voted for was to leave.

Er, that's my point...

is_that_so · 01-09-2019 12:33PM

briany wrote: »

Er, that's my point...

Not in what you've posted.

briany · 01-09-2019 12:47PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not in what you've posted.

My posts #3740 and #3744 were making fun of what Brexiteers are saying. That might be causing confusion if you thought I was in earnest.

My point being the Brexiteers retain a cocksure attitude to what the Brexit vote was about, even as their rhetoric about a deal visibly shifts. This is despite the fact that an EFTA deal would fulfil the referendum question to the letter, and it would do so in a way which provides a soft landing for the British economy, unlike no-deal. But Brexiteers reject that idea, despite the Vote Leave leaflet claiming that the UK could be part of this very bloc. Next thing you know, Brexiteers will be claiming none of them read the thing.

Valhallapt · 01-09-2019 12:49PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I agree they should be preparing but what exactly are they preparing for? It's a massive unknown with an equally unknown cost. Most small businesses IMO would not be able to address multiple scenarios.

Well they start by identifying the SKUs that are made in UK and those that only have an office in the UK. Most of these will have reduced availability on D1ND, and many of them will simply be illegal to sell, I.e. they will have to be removed from shelves.

Irish retailers are disproportionately relying on UK supply chains, big retailers may have 10k+ SKUs effected, it would be prudent to reduce this exposure now, well in advance. E.g. own brand nappies made by a small company in UK, they could have been switched to a French company by now, so there is no disruption on D1ND

If they spent the last few months preparing properly the could have reduced their risks from 10k SKUs to 5K SKUs, without the customer even realising

I believe Aldi / Lidl have done this already, but all others look badly exposed

Strazdas · 01-09-2019 12:51PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's not how referenda work. People come up with all sorts of nonsense before them. If it's not on the paper then it's not part of the question you voted on. All you voted for was to leave.

Legally, the ballot paper was meaningless and may as well have been written by a six year old in crayon.

The ballot paper didn't even specify what 'the European Union' was. Was it the 28 member political union? Did it include membership of the Single Market or Customs Union?

Even the right wing press in autumn 2016 were speculating that Britain might apply for SMCU membership, meaning nobody actually knows what the UK voted to leave in any definitive sense.

J Mysterio · 01-09-2019 12:54PM

Sorry to post without significant comment, but these tweets speak for themselves really.

https://twitter.com/LordRRoberts/status/1168074157592121344

Britain just seems like a time bomb now and it will go off sooner or later. I expect signifcant riots, nationwide. Maybe protests and then counter protests. Little 'vigilante' groups roaming the streets.

Strazdas · 01-09-2019 01:01PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Sorry to post without significant comment, but these tweets speak for themselves really.

https://twitter.com/LordRRoberts/status/1168074157592121344

Britain just seems like a time bomb now and it will go off sooner or later. I expect signifcant riots, nationwide. Maybe protests and then counter protests. Little 'vigilante' groups roaming the streets.

Yep, the more I see British Eurosceptics in action, the more I realise they were a bunch of rotters all along. Too many bad people with bad motives and there was never anything 'noble' about the way they wanted to get away from Europe.

briany · 01-09-2019 01:02PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Another day another another step on the path to full blown fascism. Every day it's getting harder and harder for Brexiters to spin and hide what they truly are.

I'm not making any comment on whether Brexiteers are fascists or not, but the term is definitely used an awful lot, and that allows its easy dismissal as a buzzword. The accusation therefore becomes easy to bat away.

J Mysterio · 01-09-2019 01:18PM

briany wrote: »

I'm not making any comment on whether Brexiteers are fascists or not, but the term is definitely used an awful lot, and that allows its easy dismissal as a buzzword. The accusation therefore becomes easy to bat away.

Previously it was the Brexiteers (and also 'do not identify as Brexiteer No Voters') who used the word. They claimed the Remainers (and...) were fascists for trying to thwart the 'will of the people' as expressed by the 'democratic vote'.

Remainers (read 'sensible people') - in my view - did not really begin to use that sort of extreme language (fascist, dictator etc.) until more recently. But when the government is actually shutting down Parliament and threatening to literally ignore it altogether, it is right that we use this language. It is not then just descriptive and metaphorical, but it is literally exactly as described and per definition.

The UK now has an extreme, far right, fascistic party in government which is literally lying constantly and acting in an authoritarian manner. It's shocking and frightening really.

Is there time for them to go with and get passed the border on the sea WA - saving the country?

Or, will they go full blown mental and destroy the UK in a kamikaze No Deal crashout?

So little time left and society can't handle such intense pressure.

Strazdas · 01-09-2019 01:26PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Previously it was the Brexiteers (and also 'do not identify as Brexiteer No Voters') who used the word. They claimed the Remainers (and...) were fascists for trying to thwart the 'will of the people' as expressed by the 'democratic vote'.

Remainers (read 'sensible people') - in my view - did not really begin to use that sort of extreme language (fascist, dictator etc.) until more recently. But when the government is actually shutting down Parliament and threatening to literally ignore it altogether, it is right that we use this language. It is not then just descriptive and metaphorical, but it is literally exactly as described and per definition.

The UK now has an extreme, far right, fascistic party in government which is literally lying constantly and acting in an authoritarian manner. It's shocking and frightening really.

Is there time for them to go with and get passed the border on the sea WA - saving the country?

Or, will they go full blown mental and destroy the UK in a kamikaze No Deal crashout?

So little time left and society can't handle such intense pressure.

A far right section of the public too - the No Deal / pro-Johnson guys and the numerous loons ranting on Twitter.

Fortunately though, they seem to be no higher than 20-25% of the population. If it was over 50%, they'd be really up the creek and have no future.

CelticRambler · 01-09-2019 01:43PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Well they start by identifying the SKUs that are made in UK and those that only have an office in the UK. Most of these will have reduced availability on D1ND, and many of them will simply be illegal to sell, I.e. they will have to be removed from shelves.

Not exactly. This is where the EU can unilaterally exercise its discretion, allowing retailers to continue to sell items that were imported and offered for sale in accordance with EU rules in force at the time, i.e. right up until 23:59 on 31st Oct, and this is a perfectly good, common-sense approach that protects EU business.

The same product imported after Brexit-day will be subject to the new (no-deal) rules, and that's where some retailers might pay a price for their complacency, but I very much doubt there will be hordes of EU inspectors traipsing around every warehouse, supermarket and pound-shop in 27 member states trying to identify goods that were imported legally weeks or months beforehand.

Seth Brundle · 01-09-2019 01:51PM

I posted this in the Brexit thread in the CA forum just now...

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Seemingly Andrew "the British are entitled to an Irish passport" Bridgen was talking to Marian Finucane about our shared history and even referred to Cromwell.
No audio available yet.

Igotadose · 01-09-2019 02:02PM

Strazdas wrote: »

A far right section of the public too - the No Deal / pro-Johnson guys and the numerous loons ranting on Twitter.

Fortunately though, they seem to be no higher than 20-25% of the population. If it was over 50%, they'd be really up the creek and have no future.

Hitler got 33% of the vote (I think) in 1933. Johnson wasn't voted on directly at all.

Johnson's not Hitler - not that smart. Nor is what's happening in the UK this week what happened in Germany then. But there are parallels.

jochenstacker · 01-09-2019 02:32PM

Apologies if this has been posted already, this is an extremely fast moving thread.
This commentator seems to think that, even if BoJo has parliament hamstrung, the EU could simply remove the deadline, pulling the rug from under Johnson's feet.
I would soil myself laughing if they did that.
I generally like his channel and it goes to prove not all Brits have lost their marbles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfjgd7FTwpY

edit, this is being hailed as a major victory by both sides, funnily enough. Remainers are saying the EU is pulling the rug from under Johnson, Brexiteers are saying this is the EU caving in and getting ready to meet all their demands in the face of a no deal brexit.

ath262 · 01-09-2019 02:54PM

from Sunday Telegraph, Suella Braverman of the 'Alternative Arrangements Commission' aka the magical Unicorn Factory, is still pushing ideas for replacing the backstop already rejected during the original negotiations with the EU. Including risking our single market status with some sort of 'all-island regulatory area'

20silkcut · 01-09-2019 02:54PM

Strazdas wrote: »

A far right section of the public too - the No Deal / pro-Johnson guys and the numerous loons ranting on Twitter.

Fortunately though, they seem to be no higher than 20-25% of the population. If it was over 50%, they'd be really up the creek and have no future.

But the polls consistently show it nearer to 40% of the population. Maybe there is something I’m misunderstanding.

Robert McGrath · 01-09-2019 03:00PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I am not even going to try to be funny and make a quip about how Brexit was about taking back control for parliament, but Gove didn't commit to abiding by legislation if it was passed by said parliament.

https://twitter.com/OFOCBrexit/status/1168099431373246467?s=20

That is dangerous, how can a government say they will not abide by the rules of their own parliament?

Every single interview with a government minister should now lead with this question. This cannot be ignored

devnull · 01-09-2019 03:06PM

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Every single interview with a government minister should now lead with this question. This cannot be ignored

Won't happen as the Tories are now setting pre-conditions on many of their MPs taking party in any television interviews on the advice of Cummings. Adam Boulton revealed this last week and said Sky News won't carry out interviews with anyone who sets pre-conditions.

Believed that one of the pre-conditions is having advance notices of what the questions are and being able to select which questions are and are not asked otherwise they will not take part in interviews most of the time.

If that's the case then the TV stations should start doorstepping politicians and following them around to hold them to account. I don't believe in harassing politicians but the media needs to hold them to account if they are not willing to take part in proper unrestricted interviews.

Zubeneschamali · 01-09-2019 03:20PM

jochenstacker wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jfjgd7FTwpY

For those who don't watch, he makes several points.

1) Gordon Brown might have been spoofing or wrong about the EU making an offer to extend A50 next week

2) BUT Boris immediately threatening to deselect any Tory MP that votes for an extension means HE believes a vote on an extension is coming.

3) If the EU offer an extension and Parliament votes to accept it, they don't need Boris to physically ask for it - Parliament is sovereign, if they vote for it, it happens no matter what Boris says.

4) If an extension happens and Boris ejects even 2 rebels from the party, he loses his majority.

5) If an election is called, the Brexit party will take a chunk out of the Tories for failing to deliver Brexit.

Strazdas · 01-09-2019 03:23PM

20silkcut wrote: »

But the polls consistently show it nearer to 40% of the population. Maybe there is something I’m misunderstanding.

It seems to be only pro-Brexit opinion polls with loaded questions coming up with the 40% figure. The real number of hardcore No Deal fans appears to be lower, maybe 25% at most.

is_that_so · 01-09-2019 03:24PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Legally, the ballot paper was meaningless and may as well have been written by a six year old in crayon.

The ballot paper didn't even specify what 'the European Union' was. Was it the 28 member political union? Did it include membership of the Single Market or Customs Union?

Even the right wing press in autumn 2016 were speculating that Britain might apply for SMCU membership, meaning nobody actually knows what the UK voted to leave in any definitive sense.

Sure it was advisory and of no real legal standing but what government was ever going to go against it.

ilovesmybrick · 01-09-2019 03:28PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I posted this in the Brexit thread in the CA forum just now...

Here you go. He starts 25 minutes in.

Edit: he wants the EU to "Come to heel". Christ almighty some of these guys are on another planet.

Igotadose · 01-09-2019 03:33PM

Any potential problems due to no Parliament and the Bahamas getting nailed by Hurricane Dorian? Does Bojo have to call out the mighty frigates of her Navy to relieve their poor beleaguered colony?

Strazdas · 01-09-2019 03:43PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Sure it was advisory and of no real legal standing but what government was ever going to go against it.

But the problem is the "instruction" to the government was so vague and ambiguous that nobody can even agree on what was voted for - to the point where the Bexiteers can confidently claim the 17m voted for No Deal.

It was never intended to be implemented. A political stunt which backfired in a huge way. Cameron underestimated the dark forces who would hijack the result if it went against the Govt - the worst people in British society.

Water John · 01-09-2019 03:43PM

The pressure is being ramped up. Barnier's article in The Telegraph was very clear. It is now followed up by Coveney:

'
“There isn’t a single EU member state putting pressure on Ireland to move away from that position, despite the fact that the UK has spoken to all of them and used all of the persuasion that they can muster to actually move countries away from that position,” he said.

He explained that dropping the backstop now just to deliver a UK domestic agenda would just mean storing up problems in Ireland for decades.

“I’m not going to pretend to people that we can do that for political convenience now to get a deal, and then find that Irish politics is dominated by the border issue indefinitely into the future. We’re not doing that,” he said.

“That is essentially transferring a problem that has been created by Brexit, by a decision by the UK, and transferring it to Ireland on a permanent basis, post-Brexit,” he said. Guardian.

Leaving MPs in no doubt.

Igotadose · 01-09-2019 04:07PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Here you go. He starts 25 minutes in.

Edit: he wants the EU to "Come to heel". Christ almighty some of these guys are on another planet.

Begging Ireland to be his 'honest broker' is so pathetic. UK wants someone else to fix their mess for them.

And he had the nerve to mention Cromwell. "The backstop's unacceptable because we can't exit it unilaterally." He was honest enough to say he doesn't know what's going to happen.

Actually a good job by the panelists, when dealing with a blinkered liar like this guy. Not Marian, probably why.

Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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