Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Spanish Eyes

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's not a matter of getting up and walking out the door. The UK can repeal all EU legislation tomorrow if it wants, but the EU can't. So there would be no appreciable difference if they repealed all that legislation. Nobody would recognise it.
Edit: meanwhile in the land of adequate food, people are being asked not to stockpile food. I think that marks the first step through the looking glass.

Who would care if UK goes really?

I am not sure that I understand your point about legislation? Surely the UK doesn't care much about that if they are leaving. And why would the EU care much either?

Go now, or stay and be true to yourself.

Afraid to leave, and afraid to stay.

Stop moaning ffs

What have they done. When will they realise. Don’t hoard food. You’re making it difficult if you do.
Where is this headed with language like that?

prawnsambo

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Who would care if UK goes really?

I am not sure that I understand your point about legislation? Surely the UK doesn't care much about that if they are leaving. And why would the EU care much either?

Go now, or stay and be true to yourself.

Afraid to leave, and afraid to stay.

Because "The Treaties cease to apply...". Without the proper legislation, they still apply. So them leaving now would be like a kid with their arms folded, stamping their foot and saying they're running away, while staying exactly where they are.

Nothing will change. Not until the day when the treaties actually cease to apply.

jimmycrackcorm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

‪in tomorrow’s main Tory propaganda outlet the Telegraph

EU Chief Negotiator @MichelBarnier writing in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph:‬

‪The backstop “is not about changing the constitutional status of Northern Ireland. That is none of the EU’s business” “I am not optimistic about avoiding a “no deal” scenario but I remain determined to explore all avenues that the UK government will present that are compatible with the Withdrawal Agreement.” “We should stop kicking the can down the road. Uncertainty has festered for far too long in the UK, in particular in Northern Ireland, as well as in Ireland and all other EU countries, for that matter.”The UK has now come to a moment of truth & it must decide if it leaves the EU with or without an agreement. If it chooses the latter, it means that there’ll be no transition period & no so-called “mini-deals”, as the EU will only act to protect its own interests‬

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1167903282037063680

What I read from that is that the WA status but it's acceptable to confine the backstop just to NI.

The key phrase is that we're not looking to change the constitutional status of NI.

Boris is gearing up for an election anyway so the DUP won't matter. What can they do? Being a vonc so that they become irrelevant anyway

VinLieger

funkey_monkey wrote: »

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Remainers-so-convinced-that-staying-in-the-European-Union-is-what-is-best-for-the-UK/answer/Barry-McGuinness-1?fbclid=IwAR3BOAYiaXNf6EsRByYUiNJkMiV4rR7t_RDMuv1gAr5ENVRD8TWOQwEJjg8


Good post here, worth a read.

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Remainers-so-convinced-that-staying-in-the-European-Union-is-what-is-best-for-the-UK/answer/Barry-McGuinness-1


Link that doesnt require facebook login

Stop moaning ffs

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

What I read from that is that the WA status but it's acceptable to confine the backstop just to NI.

The key phrase is that we're not looking to change the constitutional status of NI.

Boris is gearing up for an election anyway so the DUP won't matter. What can they do? Being a vonc so that they become irrelevant anyway

It’s going to be border in the sea NI backstop only. Boris does that and calls immediate election before DUP can pull support. And will sail through having delivered Brexit.

That’s bonkers but the least worst only sensible way out.

Saying that there’s nothing sensible happening right now. It’s all dead cat on the table. So who knows?

That loyalist persona Jamie Bryson tweeted that the DUP have been informed by conservatives there’s to be an election called for early November. We’re off to the races in that case.

ThePanjandrum

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s going to be border in the sea NI backstop only. Boris does that and calls immediate election before DUP can pull support. And will sail through having delivered Brexit.

That’s bonkers but the least worst only sensible way out.

Saying that there’s nothing sensible happening right now. It’s all dead cat on the table. So who knows?

That loyalist persona Jamie Bryson tweeted that the DUP have been informed by conservatives there’s to be an election called for early November. We’re off to the races in that case.

If he tried that the Brexit Party would take him out and he knows it.

Infini

VinLieger wrote: »

https://www.quora.com/Why-are-Remainers-so-convinced-that-staying-in-the-European-Union-is-what-is-best-for-the-UK/answer/Barry-McGuinness-1


Link that doesnt require facebook login

Honestly it's no suprise here that this whole fiasco has been driven by those looking to profit off this or evade taxes. Honestly if the UK do crash out they should investigate those involved and hammer them with penalties and fines, not to mention levelling taxes on those companies involved as well.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s going to be border in the sea NI backstop only. Boris does that and calls immediate election before DUP can pull support. And will sail through having delivered Brexit.

That’s bonkers but the least worst only sensible way out.

Truthfully the only sensible way out is an A50 cancellation but the only way to make this happen would be for British people to come out onto the street en mass similar to what's happening in Hong Kong and for the EU to not Budge on the Oct 31st deadline. MP's there also need to take the bull by the horns and decide if they want to have control or allow malicious elements to wreck their country. If they truly crash out Boris and co have to be nailed to the wall for enabling this. As for those in the conservative party if any of the more realistic and principled people there truly have the best interests of the country at heart they should first decide to put country before party and call the threat of cummings out by first voting against Boris, then leaving the party and forming a new group or joining the Lib Dem's and finally refuse to allow Boris to have his election by first voting no confidence and then coordinating with the other groups to nominate a non aligned MP to serve as Caretaker while they sideline the European Troll Group and Boris and closing them down until the whole mess is sorted.

Stop moaning ffs

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

If he tried that the Brexit Party would take him out and he knows it.

The election is due November. He would have delivered brexit before that. In September or October. The brexit party are a non entity with no reason to exist at that point

Parliament is back on Tuesday coming. Explosive and varied twists to come shortly. Anything could happen.

jimmycrackcorm

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

If he tried that the Brexit Party would take him out and he knows it.

I don't recall Farage ever saying anything specifically about NI. He has visited Dublin, but I don't think he went to Belfast to try on a bowler hat.

Water John

All the signals are, he aimed for an election in early Nov. Parliament may force his hand next week and if he loses, in terms of a law being enacted that forces him to seek an Art 50 extension, he will go for an election earlier.

fash

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

If you were bothered about totalitarianism then it is Bercow who you would object to. Johnson has used a perfectly normal and constitutional device, Bercow has ignored the constitution (although he knows it very well) and given himself unconstitutional powers which he uses in a partial way. He subverts the whole role of the speaker. He is permitted to do this because his actions benefit Remainers.

Incidentally, as Dicey would tell you, the only legitimacy of an MP comes from their representation of the majority, something which Remainer MPs have ignored.

1. The Tories were given their mandate in 2017 and that was a "smooth transition" from the EU - i.e. not a no deal (and Labour had its 5 tests). The mandate from the people is to prevent a nothing agreed brexit.
The PM is usurping parliament - and its mandates.
In the UK parliament is sovereign - not "the people" (in addition of note, Western countries are not nor are intended to be democracies. What they are are liberal democracies- where in particular the minority are to be protected against the majority.)
Bercow's actions have only ever been aimed at increasing the power of the parliament and to in particular carry out its mandate to discuss and make decisions- so even if his actions were "unconstitutional" as alleged they were certainly not as unconstitutional as those of Johnson (an unelected PM, going against the mandate provided to the minority Tory party) usurping the power of the parliament based on a illegally run vague nearly half decade old referendum barely "won" based on lies and clearly for something other than that which Johnson seeks - and where Johnson and his cronies are terrified of having the people determine if this course of action should be undertaken because even given the extraordinary levels of malignant toxic propaganda and lies spewed out by the right wing press and people like yourself less than a third of the people support it.

While I'm sure you're only recently discovered Dicey, he was in fact not particularly good. Furthermore the UK is a parliamentary democracy where referendums are not used because in particular vague referendums give fake legitimacy to the illegitimate actions of government - indeed as Thatcher correctly and presciently noted, referendums are the favourite tools of populist authoritarian dictators - not of democracies. In addition the role of parliament is to represent the interests of its voters- not necessarily their desires. Again that is the entire point of a liberal democracy.

2 tweets/threads by David Allen Green are relevant, precise and pithy:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1166996815255916544
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1166968906881409025

fash

Bit cynical wrote: »

They have to stay until the agreed date.

That is at best debatable (a Tory -Tugendhat was recently suggesting leaving early for example)- it is primarily a preference of the UK not to leave early.

reslfj

BluePlanet wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

As far as I know, this is the deadline, the final leaving date.
They can leave before if they choose to do so.

They can leave after they ratify the Withdrawal Agreement.
Otherwise it's 31/10.

Exactly.

The EU extension agreement of A50 says:

Reuters wrote:

....
2. In response, the European Council agrees to an extension to allow for the ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement.

Such an extension should last only as long as necessary and, in any event, no longer than 31 October 2019.

If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified by both parties before this date, the withdrawal will take place on the first day of the following month.
...

The extension has the purpose to ratify the WA and if it is ratified the UK can leave by the end of the current month.
Otherwise the extension will run until Oct 31.

Lars

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-extension-text/text-eu-agreement-to-extend-brexit-idUSKCN1RN01E

fash

Sam Russell wrote: »

'Free trade zones' would not help the motor assembly business because of CoO rules. The resulting cars would still attract full tariffs on entry into the EU, and why would somebody buy a Nissan from Sunderland with a 10% tariff when the same model built in Japan would come in with zero tariff?

NI as a 'Free trade Zone' would be a nonsense. How can dairy farming, or killing pigs be 'free trade'. Perhaps a unicorn farm might work, but even that would be far fetched.

It wouldn't be"free trade zone" as such- it would be "areas subject to a backstop style regulatory alignment and effectively within the single market and customs union". So there would be a customs barrier between the car factory and the rest of the UK for example.

Stop moaning ffs

Could Javid jump ship after his assistant being fired without his knowledge of it?

fash

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Barnier - in his article in the Telegraph tomorrow - also says there will be no special mini deals with the UK in a no deal Brexit.


So what he has said is negotiations are over, the deal is there and it is time to decide whether it is a deal or not.

Very direct article.

Good to hear- this is likely not directed at brexiters however, rather at wavering Tory MPs who want to delude themselves that Johnson's plan of taking it to the wire is actually a plan and not a deliberate ploy to go to no deal:
https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/status/1167324823669760011

J Mysterio

The article is also available on Reddit

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/cy0rbg/comment/eyoxa74

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/13sarahmurphy/status/1167710276982124544

Stop moaning ffs

Seems all is not well in the Boris cabinet and then this

https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1167896020073644043?s=21

Enzokk

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The election is due November. He would have delivered brexit before that. In September or October. The brexit party are a non entity with no reason to exist at that point

Parliament is back on Tuesday coming. Explosive and varied twists to come shortly. Anything could happen.

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

I don't recall Farage ever saying anything specifically about NI. He has visited Dublin, but I don't think he went to Belfast to try on a bowler hat.

I actually agree with ThePanjandrum here, if he delivers anything but no-deal he will have to face the Brexit Party in an election. The only way he neutralizes them is by delivering no-deal. Anything else will be spun as capitulation to the EU and there will be something for the Brexiters to fight for.

reslfj

fash wrote: »

It wouldn't be"free trade zone" as such- it would be "areas subject to a backstop style regulatory alignment and effectively within the single market and customs union". So there would be a customs barrier between the car factory and the rest of the UK for example.

The NI being allowed into the SM for goods without the other three freedoms is a major concession from the EU's side to the peace, the GFA and the people on the island of Ireland.
It was accepted by the EU27 as the EU could not find any other foolproof way to match the UK red lines and keep the border open.

It helped the EU's accept this SM for goods only status in NI that the all island job market will continue post Brexit for Irish citizens and UK citizens living in NI. This makes FoM a very small problem as only EU26 citizens specifically migrating to live in NI will be affected.

The four freedoms come undivided and the only exceptions, I know of, is the Irish backstop and Liechtenstein.
Liechtenstein (ppl 37.000, 62 sq.mi) doesn't has to allow EU/EEA citizens to stay permanently within the Principality.
And even Liechtenstein's PM said a few years back that this partial 'FoM opt-out' would most likely not be granted by today's EU.

Lars

allthedoyles

Hi Lars , How is it a major concession , if its only for a transitional period while a future agreement is reached ?

Strazdas

J Mysterio wrote: »

https://twitter.com/13sarahmurphy/status/1167710276982124544

We keep being told that revoking A50 would be the end of life as we know it in the UK - an insane argument that says that No Deal would somehow be the lesser of two evils.

This is beyond nuts. No Deal could break up the UK, kill many people (medicine shortages etc), spark riots on the streets, divide the nation for 30 years and much more. The political fall out from revocation would be a picnic compared to that level of total chaos.

reslfj

allthedoyles wrote: »

Hi Lars , How is it a major concession , if its only for a transitional period while a future agreement is reached ?

I didn't think of to transitional periods but accepting FoM for goods only.

The four freedoms are always all or none. Accepting FoM for goods only is a very large concession and as I wrote before because:

• The EU had no other solution respecting all of the UK/TM's red lines, the GFA and a guaranteed open border.
• NI is a low GDP area where few EU26 citizens settles (many more come to Ireland)
• FoM works for Irish and UK citizens post Brexit - GFA, CTA etc
• The Irish Sea is a natural border and already used as GB border for some SPS checks e.g. in Larne.

Lars

PS! The transitional periods - first one, then two periods - requested by the UK and granted by the EU is also a large concession, but is expected to benefit the UK most but also the EU. They are short term and unlikely to create much precedence for the EU in future deals.

allthedoyles

I meet Northern Ireland truck drivers every day and when I mention Brexit , I get two responses :

1. its not going to happen
2. it won't be as bad as they say

I usually start the conversation by saying '' any sign of the border posts been built yet ?

Charles Babbage

reslfj wrote: »

The NI being allowed into the SM for goods without the other three freedoms is a major concession from the EU's side to the peace, the GFA and the people on the island of Ireland.
It was accepted by the EU27 as the EU could not find any other foolproof way to match the UK red lines and keep the border open.

Why were EU citzens not also allowed move to NI in the backstop? Didn't the Foster-McGuiness letter not suggest this? There wouldn't be that many, but it seems like a reasonable measure, especially as almost everyone in NI are Irish citizens and enjoy FOM.

Bit cynical

20silkcut wrote: »

But if they are genuinely going for a no deal it doesn’t matter if they leave tomorrow or the 31st October?
If they are going to burn the bridges why does it matter what date it takes place?
It will be all gone to hell anyway. Who is going to punish them or what sanction could be brought against them for leaving before 31st October.
Could they leave while parliament is in the prorogue period?
Could they just announce that’s it we are gone. No more talks. We no longer recognize the ECJ etc?? And parliament obviously could not do a thing about it.

However they agreed as members of the EU, long before any referendum that, if they wanted to leave, they would follow A50 procedures. So yes, they could leave and I don't think they would be stopped (I can't imagine military action), but they would be in breach of an international treaty if they did.

briany

Bit cynical wrote: »

but they would be in breach of an international treaty if they did.

Shur, what's one more?

Akrasia

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's not a matter of getting up and walking out the door. The UK can repeal all EU legislation tomorrow if it wants, but the EU can't. So there would be no appreciable difference if they repealed all that legislation. Nobody would recognise it.

Edit: Meanwhile in the land of adequate food, people are being asked not to stockpile food. I think that marks the first step through the looking glass.

If they really were trying to prepare for a no deal, they should be telling people to start stockpiling non perishable foods now so that at least there won’t be panic buying in the days before crash out day. If everyone already had a couple of weeks worth of dried cereal, rice, pasta, toilet paper etc already stored in their homes it would take a lot of pressure off the supermarkets in the days before b day