Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Lackadaisical · 14-08-2019 06:32PM

I think from a sociological point of view, they probably do need to go through with it at this stage and actually be forced to deal with the reality of their own choices. If they were lied to, those who lied need to also face the public.

If it doesn't happen, the lies just go on and on and on and we'll be back here again, and again.. and again.

serfboard · 14-08-2019 06:55PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

How deluded do you have to be to think that telling voters you support remain, unless you are put in power in which case you will support leave, but only if you can put together the kind of impossible unicorn deal the government failed to secure, and think that will attract support from anyone.

Yeah this has been their policy for some time. They support leaving with a deal so long as it is their deal. Otherwise, they support remain.

Daft nonsense, of course.

serfboard · 14-08-2019 06:57PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

If it doesn't happen, the lies just go on and on and on and we'll be back here again, and again.. and again.

I don't normally listen to him, but I heard a bit of Ian Dale on LBC the other night and he thinks that they'll still be talking about Brexit in thirty years time! :eek:

CalamariFritti · 14-08-2019 07:05PM

trellheim wrote: »

well if you are betting on your own currency to tank its a solid move

Well to be fair that's not exactly whats happening here although it may look that way.

Stop moaning ffs · 14-08-2019 07:20PM

Senator Neil Richmond handing Ian Dale and the delusional brexit position a severe can of kick ass just there on LBC. Well worth listening back to.

Imreoir2 · 14-08-2019 07:21PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Fundamentally the problem there is that Brexit transcends the party political divide between Labour and Tory. It's about nationalism and I would suspect a lot of the Labour Party support it, while a lot of the Tories, especially pro-business types who are genuinely pragmatic are barely holding the current party line and would vote against it if given half the chance.

The timing is also extremely unfortunate as the Labour Party is in total internal turmoil.

I genuinely think this is one of these topics that will fundamentally change UK politics for generations. I could see the Tory party perhaps being entirely replaced by the Lib Dems as the centre right if there's a full on melt down of the economy.

The one HUGE issue that's cropping up in both Labour and the Tories is having the entire party membership voting for the parliamentary party leader is insane. There should be a distinction between the 'party president' and the leader in Westminster. It's not the same thing at all. At least MPs voting for a parliamentary party leader all have real mandates. Boris and Jeremy have that in common.

They've managed to dismantle the fundamental link between leadership and parliament and created a situation where the party leader is almost like a privately elected president operating in parallel to the normal parliamentary democracy that the UK has had for centuries.

I foresee a massive constitutional crisis in the UK - far too many fundamentals of how their political system works are being ignored or pushed to their limits.

I think the Tory system, even though it gave us Johnson, is not a terrible way to elect a party leader. It's a choice between the parliamentary parties top two picks. If that system had been in place in Labour, things would be very different. If it was in place in FG, we would have Taoiseach Coveney which I personally think would have been a better result than their somewhat convoluted system gave us.

Having a leader the parties MPs don't support is Labours problem, Borris was the front runner among Tory MPs and would almost certainly have won was it left to MPs to select the leader.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-08-2019 07:22PM

Enzokk wrote: »

What is the Unite position on Brexit?

Cherrypicking.

Both the Tories and Labour want full access to EU markets while blocking free movement.

Like Labour the unions would like to keep EU workers rights and be able to protecting job by subsidising or nationalising certain industries.
The Tories would like to ditch the workers rights, remove subsidies and privatise everything.

For example three shipyards

'Ready' to Nationalise Says Scottish Government on Clyde Shipyard Ferguson Marine

UK Councillor Calls to Renationalise Appledore Shipyard

Harland and Wolff gets extra week to find a buyer But it's only the workers calling for nationalisation.

Seth Brundle · 14-08-2019 07:26PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I foresee a massive constitutional crisis in the UK - far too many fundamentals of how their political system works are being ignored or pushed to their limits.

Can you have a constitutional crisis when you dont have a clearly written constitution?

reslfj · 14-08-2019 07:29PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

...
Perhaps it could be sold as coming out of the £39bn that the UK will eventually pay one way or another. Hopefully, £39bn will still have some value in a few years' time

The "£39bn" is not an/the amount to be paid, but the net sum of the estimated line items the UK has to pay to the UK and subtracted the line items the EU have to pay to the UK.

It is money already allocated e.g. to pensions, research projects not yet completed or the UK's EU contributions until Brexit day.
I am not sure if the UK's contributions during transition periods is included in the estimate, but I think the first transition period until ultimo 2020 is included. Do anyone know?

This money is allocated already and cannot be used for anything else.

Everything EU is in Euros and paid in Euros. The £ is nothing but a figure being calculated using the (now historic) £->€ exchange rate.

Lars

Imreoir2 · 14-08-2019 07:30PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Aside: I was browsing thru new CSO brexit stats, some very juicy stuff there, we import more than we export to UK
https://www.cso.ie/en/interactivezone/visualisationtools/brexitindicators/#
Our exports also have fallen (brexit preparations?) to only 9-10% of total
Also the number of trips in both directions have fallen, it seem we already have decoupled from UK and are "brexit ready"

So... you are saying that they need us more then we need them?

For the most part, Ireland was just the far end of the Europe to UK supply chain. Brexit has forced our economey to strenghten its own supply chains independant of the UK.

lawred2 · 14-08-2019 07:32PM

reslfj wrote: »

The "£39bn" is not an/the amount to be paid, but the net sum of the estimated line items the UK has to pay to the UK and subtracted the line items the EU have to pay to the UK.

It is money already allocated e.g. to pensions, research projects not yet completed or the UK's EU contributions until Brexit day.
I am not sure if the UK's contributions during transition periods is included in the estimate, but I think the first transition period until ultimo 2020 is included. Do anyone know?

This money is allocated already and cannot be used for anything else.

Everything EU is in Euros and paid in Euros. The £ is nothing but a figure being calculated using the (now historic) £->€ exchange rate.

Lars

So it's likely more than £39Bn then at this stage

Imreoir2 · 14-08-2019 07:34PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Can you have a constitutional crisis when you dont have a clearly written constitution?

If anything its probably more likely. With a written constitution, when a leader tries to do something that it unconstitutional it is fairly obvious to everyone and the courts can easily step in a strike them down. In a semi-chaotic system like the UKs that rests largely on precedent and respect for process, when a leader pushes the boundaries everyone is left wondering what if anything can be done about it.

Strazdas · 14-08-2019 07:43PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Can you have a constitutional crisis when you dont have a clearly written constitution?

Yes, you can. Matters that are outside day to day politics and which relate to the actual way the country is legally set up and how Parliament operates would be considered 'constitutional' ones, therefore if things start falling apart, you would have a constitutional crisis,

Tikki Wang Wang · 14-08-2019 08:25PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Senator Neil Richmond handing Ian Dale and the delusional brexit position a severe can of kick ass just there on LBC. Well worth listening back to.

What did he say ?

Lackadaisical · 14-08-2019 08:49PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Can you have a constitutional crisis when you dont have a clearly written constitution?

Absolutely, and it would probably be quite a long drawn out process involving lots of court cases as people try to define where the limits are.

The UK's constitution isn't as chaotic as some make out either, while some of it is vague, a lot of it is written. It's mostly just a collection of other legislation that's considered to be constitutionally relevant.

kowloon · 14-08-2019 09:06PM

bilston wrote: »

So now MPs who are opposed to Brexit are "collaborating" with the EU.

I suggest Johnson learns to become more careful with his language

If we're talking the language of nationalism it's well chosen. Collaborators are the enemy, the traitors. We'll see if the term gets used repeatedly like undemocratic backstop and taking back control.

Beechwoodspark · 14-08-2019 09:10PM

lawred2 wrote: »

So it's likely more than £39Bn then at this stage

Yep it’s up around 43 Bn now. And rising.

As the pound dives the figure will increase

Mr.Nice Guy · 14-08-2019 09:11PM

I see Mike Pence is coming to Ireland next month.

https://twitter.com/donie/status/1161711169004085249

I wonder will he wade into the debate about Brexit and a US/UK trade deal or will he keep schtum. An intervention by him along the lines of Pelosi's comments could be a game changer. Then again, I'm not sure he has it in him to take a moral stand like that, even with his own Irish connection.

Beechwoodspark · 14-08-2019 09:13PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I see Mike Pence is coming to Ireland next month.

https://twitter.com/donie/status/1161711169004085249

I wonder will he wade into the debate about Brexit and a US/UK trade deal or will he keep schtum. An intervention by him along the lines of Pelosi's comments could be a game changer. Then again, I'm not sure he has it in him to take a moral stand like that, even with his own Irish connection.

He has been nothing but a trump parrot so far so i expect nothing new. He seems to be the stalking horse in case trump has to resign suddenly.

ThePanjandrum · 14-08-2019 09:32PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I see Mike Pence is coming to Ireland next month.

https://twitter.com/donie/status/1161711169004085249

I wonder will he wade into the debate about Brexit and a US/UK trade deal or will he keep schtum. An intervention by him along the lines of Pelosi's comments could be a game changer. Then again, I'm not sure he has it in him to take a moral stand like that, even with his own Irish connection.

He's visiting Iceland, then a couple of days in the UK to discuss Brexit (which he supports) and then over to Ireland for a day

Imreoir2 · 14-08-2019 09:36PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

He's visiting Iceland, then a couple of days in the UK to discuss Brexit (which he supports) and then over to Ireland for a day

Why on earth would he not support Brexit? It damages a rival (the EU) and gives the US the opportunity to asset mine the UK.

Stop moaning ffs · 14-08-2019 10:18PM

Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »

What did he say ?

Reminded them very forcefully the WA is closed and wtf is Ireland and the Eu supposed to do when Britain has already agreed to it now because it has a new pm who voted for these measures earlier, now wants to renege on it. He’s wasting his time. Parliament is chasing its tail doesn’t even know what it wants. That’s not Ireland’s or Europe’s problem to solve.

I’ve rarely heard Dale be stumped but he was. He just retreated to ‘well no deal it is then.’

It was a lot more than that but that’s the gist. And he wasn’t losing his cool but he was forceful and deadly serious.

Kermit.de.frog · 14-08-2019 10:20PM

Pence will tell each audience what they want to hear.

Then he'll go home.

reslfj · 14-08-2019 10:22PM

lawred2 wrote: »

So it's likely more than £39Bn then at this stage

Assuming the running UK contribution has been paid, It will be lowered amount that's yet to be paid.

Whatever the amount is - it is a tiny amount compared to the huge cost of even a WA type Brexit.

A 'No Deal' Brexit will be even more expensive and catastrophically costly in the UK.

Lars

reslfj · 14-08-2019 10:27PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Yep it’s up around 43 Bn now. And rising.

As the pound dives the figure will increase

The amount doesn't rise in real terms, just because the UK can't manage its economy in a way that keeps the value of the £.

The UK has always had to pay for the agreed line items and in Euro.

Lars

Enzokk · 14-08-2019 11:03PM

I haven't listened to the interview yet but for those that are looking for it, it can be find at the link below.

https://www.globalplayer.com/catchup/lbc/london

Just pick the Ian Dale show and forward to the interview. Seems to be 12 minutes in, just use the 30 second fast forward button to get there.

marno21 · 14-08-2019 11:19PM

Renewed evidence that the Labour Party leader is taking a view on the nation's most important issue that's not reflected by the party at large

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1161654112309714944

I would like to see the Mensa members who support the Brexit Party yet would vote remain in a referendum.

Shelga · 14-08-2019 11:23PM

Just listened to Iain Dale and Neale Richmond interview there. Senator Richmond's frustration was very clear. We are all completely fed up with the arrogance and irresponsibility of the UK government, stamping its feet like a child because it can't get exactly what it wants, even though it doesn't even know what that is.

Iain Dale came across very poorly, I thought. Trying to pin the blame on Ireland and the EU for this absolute shambles is pathetic. I don't have much respect for people who cannot take responsibility for their own messes, and every hardcore Brexiter fits that description perfectly.

Does Iain Dale not acknowledge the sheer hypocrisy of his precious Prime Minister, who voted both against and for the Withdrawal Agreement, yet we are to believe the complete drivel that every single one of the 17.4 million Leave voters wants a no deal exit that will destroy the economy, and not a single one of them has changed their minds :rolleyes:

Not a single one of the prominent Brexiters, that I have heard, has said "We weren't prepared for this, we've made a mess of it, for that we are sorry." Pathetic, dangerous liars, all of them.

Lackadaisical · 14-08-2019 11:26PM

I’d love to know who the 2% of the Brexit party supporters who are in favour of remain are! Clearly they’re very confused as it has absolutely no other policies.

14-08-2019 11:35PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

I’d love to know who the 2% of the Brexit party supporters who are in favour of remain are! Clearly they’re very confused as it has absolutely no other policies.

Probably the same as the 2% of sinn fein voters who said no to a UI at the exit polls of the EU elections recently.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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