Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

lawred2 · 13-08-2019 10:05AM

It's kinda funny though watching these Brexiteers boiling in their own piss about Ireland actually having some diplomatic clout.

This is the first time that Ireland couldn't be simply routed over to serve their own insular desires...

fash · 13-08-2019 10:08AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

However the worry for Ireland has never been that some deal would be done that was not satisfactory for Ireland. There's never been pressure from the EU on Ireland to drop its insistence on the backstop for example. The worry rather is that no deal at all would be done.

There are worse things than no deal - a bad deal is worse than a no deal (h.t. May).

Bit cynical · 13-08-2019 10:13AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

You've left out the one option that seems (to me anyway) as the most obvious one.
Have a GE before brexit day (while he can be all things to all voters bar ultra-remainers) and then get the majority that gives him his main priorities; (a) remain on as PM and (b) dump the DUP.

Well there's still the possibility of not getting the WA past parliament and I don't think he's a huge fan of the WA himself despite voting for it the last time it was put to parliament.

I do think he wants an election but I think he will probably try to delay it until after brexit.

I agree it is an option though.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 10:14AM

LordBasil wrote: »

Yeah, I think that's likely to happen most. If he can get a majority and get rid of the DUP it would give him the option of a NI only backstop again. Even though he said NI should not be different from the rest of the UK, he knows if No Deal happens on Nov 1st he might be left with no option but to accept that.

The thing Boris wants more than anything is power, now that he has it he will do anything to keep it, including throwing the DUP under the bus. I wouldn't put anything past him.

All the signs are there. An election cabinet, refusal to speak to anyone from the EU27 (for fear that he might be reported as saying something unbrexity), constant appearances around the UK making rabble rousing speeches a la Trump, ditto for his brexity cabinet and pushing a hard line anti-Irish/anti-EU stance in the media. Also getting positive noises from people in the US administration (who actually won't be making those decisions) about 'mini' trade deals.

And it's working. Despite his past flip-flopping political career, he's somehow persuaded people that he's rock solid.

upupup · 13-08-2019 10:16AM

lawred2 wrote: »

It's kinda funny though watching these Brexiteers boiling in their own piss about Ireland actually having some diplomatic clout.

This is the first time that Ireland couldn't be simply routed over to serve their own insular desires...

If they thought they could get away with it,they would send in the black and tans.

fash · 13-08-2019 10:19AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The daily attacks and lies about Varadkar get more bizarre by the day. In today’s edition, Leo apparently has threatened to ban British flights from Irish airspace.

That was from July 2018 when he said a no deal Brexit could affect flights.

Stop moaning ffs · 13-08-2019 10:22AM

fash wrote: »

That was from July 2018 when he said a no deal Brexit could affect flights.

It’s popped up again today. These sustained and ever more ridiculous ‘stories’ are just going to get worse as we move closer to the 31st.

Valhallapt · 13-08-2019 10:24AM

InTheShadows wrote: »

It hasn't sunk in yet for a lot of people here but they are leaving without a deal in a few weeks. To say preparations here are lacking would be a massive understatement.

QFT

While Ireland had done a reasonable good job diversifying exports, the same is not true for imports.

With the collapse of sterling, I’m anecdotally hearing U.K. imports have actually increased in recent weeks. (An element of stock piling also) Look at supermarket shelves, there is large amounts of British made goods on them, there is no plan to substitute them, with the best intentions and their big buying power the multiples can swap to continental brands but that will take months before the supply chains become optimal meaning lots of empty shelves.

As for Imports of raw materials from the U.K. there are a whole series of issues apart from the delays and tariffs, like does the material meet a recognized safety standard within the single market. This will in turn have an impact on exports.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 10:27AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Well there's still the possibility of not getting the WA past parliament and I don't think he's a huge fan of the WA himself despite voting for it the last time it was put to parliament.

I do think he wants an election but I think he will probably try to delay it until after brexit.

I agree it is an option though.

There are too many uncontrollable dangers with holding an election after B-day 3. Firstly, he could be forced by parliament to hold one earlier via a VONC. Secondly there's going to be a media storm about the effects of brexit during a campaign where he won't control the narrative. Every interview will be dominated by the fall out (however large or small).

Hold it before B-day and he controls the narrative. He can say what he likes about what's going to happen and what he will do.
And let's not forget that he voted for the WA. He may not like it, but if he gets a majority and dumps the DUP, he can go back to the original idea for the backstop and by doing so, hold on to NI in the union and shut the Scots up.

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 10:31AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

QFT

While Ireland had done a reasonable good job diversifying exports, the same is not true for imports.

With the collapse of sterling, I’m anecdotally hearing U.K. imports have actually increased in recent weeks. (An element of stock piling also) Look at supermarket shelves, there is large amounts of British made goods on them, there is no plan to substitute them, with the best intentions and their big buying power the multiples can swap to continental brands but that will take months before the supply chains become optimal meaning lots of empty shelves.

As for Imports of raw materials from the U.K. there are a whole series of issues apart from the delays and tariffs, like does the material meet a recognized safety standard within the single market. This will in turn have an impact on exports.

Major retailers have been diversifying their brands away from british suppliers to continental ones for a while now, theres new shipping routes been created and many supply chains are already up and running

Valhallapt · 13-08-2019 10:31AM

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-08-13/brexit-pain-sparks-selloff-in-shares-of-danish-ferry-operator

DFDS the largest provider of cargo services between Britain and the continent are seeing a large drop in volumes, much bigger than what they expected or what they can account for from previous stock piling.

Continental businesses are reducing imports from Britain in advance of Brexit, Irish businesses are increasing imports......

fash · 13-08-2019 10:32AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s popped up again today. These sustained and ever more ridiculous ‘stories’ are just going to get worse as we move closer to the 31st.

Are you sure? I think it was just on that tweet you referenced- which I understand to be citing it as evidence for the anti-Irish theme

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 10:34AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

With the collapse of sterling, I’m anecdotally hearing U.K. imports have actually increased in recent weeks. (An element of stock piling also) Look at supermarket shelves, there is large amounts of British made goods on them, there is no plan to substitute them, with the best intentions and their big buying power the multiples can swap to continental brands but that will take months before the supply chains become optimal meaning lots of empty shelves.

And (not anecdotally), I spoke directly to one of the biggest supermarket buyers in this country and they told me that they've been substituting since mid last year. It has also been reported that UK suppliers can't get long term contracts with their export customers and are rolling over month by month.

Valhallapt · 13-08-2019 10:34AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Major retailers have been diversifying their brands away from british suppliers to continental ones for a while now, theres new shipping routes been created and many supply chains are already up and running

I hope you are right on this, but apart from aldi / lidl I’m not seeing the change.

I’ve no proof but anecdotally I’m seeing the reverse is happening the fall in sterling leading to increased stockpiling.

Seth Brundle · 13-08-2019 10:35AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

<snip>
4. Leave on no deal but keep the option open for the EU to propose a revised deal.

With the last option, I'm sure he would love for the EU to come back with a revised deal but he knows this is unlikely. Nevertheless it plays well at home. So as things stand, it is leave on no deal unless he (or the EU) is planning something that no one is expecting.

In terms of #4, if the UK leave then there will not be a new deal. They will have left the EU (by their own making) and any new discussions will be about creating new trade agreements.

As for the EU proposing a new deal before the UK leaves, well then that's the end of the EU in one reckless move. This will *not* happen regardless of what the Daily Mail say.

Valhallapt · 13-08-2019 10:37AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

And (not anecdotally), I spoke directly to one of the biggest supermarket buyers in this country and they told me that they've been substituting since mid last year. It has also been reported that UK suppliers can't get long term contracts with their export customers and are rolling over month by month.

That is anecdotal, I too spoke with a large haulage firm working with large multiples who are seeing a big increase.

A couple of months ago I was on a stag trip with a purchaser for one of the biggest multiples and they had no plans to substitute, fully expect there to be some kind of deal. May things have changed since then.

Stop moaning ffs · 13-08-2019 10:39AM

fash wrote: »

Are you sure? I think it was just on that tweet you referenced- which I understand to be citing it as evidence for the anti-Irish theme

It’s on a few of those clearly bot accounts. I keep an eye on a lot of them just to see what the latest nonsense is.

mrbrianj · 13-08-2019 10:41AM

lawred2 wrote: »

It's kinda funny though watching these Brexiteers boiling in their own piss about Ireland actually having some diplomatic clout.

This is the first time that Ireland couldn't be simply routed over to serve their own insular desires...

Agreed, but not the first time - we isolated ourselves during the Emergency rather than return to Empire, they couldn't understand that then and fail to remember it now - although do remember their own Dunkrik spirit.

Funnily enough, Brexit is looks likely to be as successful an endeavor as the British Expeditionary Force.

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 10:44AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

I hope you are right on this, but apart from aldi / lidl I’m not seeing the change.

I’ve no proof but anecdotally I’m seeing the reverse is happening the fall in sterling leading to increased stockpiling.

Well yeah the fall in sterling means they can get things cheaper than ever before, why not make hay while the sun shines?

Im sure if you looked at Amazon and other online UK retailers like Asos etc you would see a similar spike.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 10:45AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

That is anecdotal, I too spoke with a large haulage firm working with large multiples who are seeing a big increase.

A couple of months ago I was on a stag trip with a purchaser for one of the biggest multiples and they had no plans to substitute, fully expect there to be some kind of deal. May things have changed since then.

I don't doubt it. The British multiples here are pretty much tied to the mother ship's supply chains. Apart from locally sourced produce like meat, vegetables and the big Irish brands that is. I wouldn't say the same for the likes of Musgraves, Dunnes etc.

Valhallapt · 13-08-2019 10:47AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Well yeah the fall in sterling means they can get things cheaper than ever before, why not make hay while the sun shines?

Im sure if you looked at Amazon and other online UK retailers like Asos etc you would see a similar spike.

Well it’s not very prudent, what happens when their stock pile runs dry and all the ferries are full and there is no capacity to import from elsewhere. How long can those business survive without imports?

ilovesmybrick · 13-08-2019 10:47AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't doubt it. The British multiples here are pretty much tied to the mother ship's supply chains. Apart from locally sourced produce like meat, vegetables and the big Irish brands that is. I wouldn't say the same for the likes of Musgraves, Dunnes etc.

How a no-deal Brexit threatens your weekly food shop

The Guardian has an excellent infographic that shows the main products where the UK will have problems. I have to say that I was quite surprised to see that 99% of frozen potatoe products are imported from the EU. I would have thought domestic production would be far higher.

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 10:55AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Well it’s not very prudent, what happens when their stock pile runs dry and all the ferries are full and there is no capacity to import from elsewhere. How long can those business survive without imports?

Why are you assuming they don't have another supply chain also running at reduced capacity with plans to scale up when required?

There will likely be issues in the very short term but as you pointed out due to the dropping of routes to the UK theres boat available to create new routes to Ireland now. A massive one with a brand new ship launched last year literally called the brexit buster.

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 11:05AM

VinLieger wrote: »

There will likely be issues in the very short term but as you pointed out due to the dropping of routes to the UK theres boat available to create new routes to Ireland now. A massive one with a brand new ship launched last year literally called the brexit buster.

There are actually three of them now. The first was the MV Celine, then the MV Delphine and just recently the MV Laureline. All the same size with over 5Km of load space for RoRo.

Bit cynical · 13-08-2019 11:11AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

... and shut the Scots up.

Ah now let's be realistic here.

Seth Brundle · 13-08-2019 11:20AM

Apparently thiings will be ok for the UK due to their contingency planning being done by PM Johnson (according to the CEO of Next)...

“We’re a long way from gridlock and chaos. I think the fact that (UK tax authority) HMRC have introduced these transitional measures will make an enormous difference,” he said.

“We are rapidly moving from the gridlock and chaos camp into the well prepared camp. To have the government and civil service that is now determinedly endeavoring to make sure that we are prepared is really important.”

He said the government of Theresa May had failed to adequately prepare for a no-deal, a situation he said was now being addressed by her successor.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/retail-and-services/next-boss-says-britain-can-avoid-no-deal-brexit-disorder-bbc-1.3984874

reslfj · 13-08-2019 11:23AM

fash wrote: »

That was from July 2018 when he said a no deal Brexit could affect flights.

"European open Skyes" is a set of agreements within the EU and - AFAIR - with some associated nearby states. ( there is an agreement of a similar name with the US too).
It allows every EU majority owned airline to basically fly everywhere within the EU and allows all 9 freedoms of the air. It's the basis for low cost airlines and did end the very expensive nationally owned airline system with 'One Lufthansa for one BEA/BA flight on say the London-Frankfurt route'

Flying over and landing for emergency/repair another countries is, however, part of signing up to the Chicago Convention from 1947 (192 nations has signed) and is a right (if you pay a fee and follow the rules for the airspace you fly in etc.) (called 'Freedom of the air' 1+2. Look it up on Wikipedia)

Landing or takeoff with passengers on a direct route from/to your home country is a matter for negotiations and requires a deal. (Freedom of the air 3+4).

The EU27 has announced it plans to unilaterally allow direct UK<->EU27 flights until March 31. 2020 (if the UK does the same).
The EU27 would have allowed more complex flight routes for a few months after the no deal Brexit that did come this past March, not to interfere with airline reservations. It might do the same from Nov 1. - (or it may not)

Some deal on air traffic seems to be one of the few areas the EU might consider for a mini-deal.

Lars

https://www.ferryshippingnews.com/cldns-celine-and-delphine-together-at-dublin-port/

Frank Bullitt · 13-08-2019 11:23AM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

How a no-deal Brexit threatens your weekly food shop

The Guardian has an excellent infographic that shows the main products where the UK will have problems. I have to say that I was quite surprised to see that 99% of frozen potatoe products are imported from the EU. I would have thought domestic production would be far higher.

That's a brilliant graphic.

You hear brexiters argue that they can self sustain, and if they survived the war they could survive this...how far from reality can they be?

BonnieSituation · 13-08-2019 11:33AM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

How a no-deal Brexit threatens your weekly food shop

The Guardian has an excellent infographic that shows the main products where the UK will have problems. I have to say that I was quite surprised to see that 99% of frozen potatoe products are imported from the EU. I would have thought domestic production would be far higher.

That's fantastic.

Really highlights just how we've "overplayed our hand".

We legitimately could starve them. The exports to the UK from Ireland are insane!

J Mysterio · 13-08-2019 11:44AM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

How a no-deal Brexit threatens your weekly food shop

The Guardian has an excellent infographic that shows the main products where the UK will have problems. I have to say that I was quite surprised to see that 99% of frozen potatoe products are imported from the EU. I would have thought domestic production would be far higher.

That infographic seems to put to rest (the clearly silly) mantra of 'they need us more than we need them'. When scrolling down, you can see the switch from EU exports to UK to UK exports to EU. Massive difference there for the UK.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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