Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

MrMusician18 · 13-08-2019 02:11AM

Strazdas wrote: »

There's talk of 50k job losses in Ireland with No Deal. The current labour market in the ROI is 2.2m....50k would be about 2.5% of that figure

Even if the jobs were lost, there's nothing to say many of them couldn't be regained in a year or two by Ireland diversifying its export market

A lot of jobs "lost" are actually jobs that would be expected to be added to the economy but because of the conditions created by Brexit, the growth never happens. As you never miss what you never had, this kind of impact won't be felt that much.

The same is true for the other figures for lost jobs on the continent and the UK itself. Most of the lost jobs are actually jobs that were never added rather than redundancies.

Strazdas · 13-08-2019 02:20AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

A lot of jobs "lost" are actually jobs that would be expected to be added to the economy but because of the conditions created by Brexit, the growth never happens. As you never miss what you never had, this kind of impact won't be felt that much.

The same is true for the other figures for lost jobs on the continent and the UK itself. Most of the lost jobs are actually jobs that were never added rather than redundancies.

The Brexit crowd seem to think Ireland would be annihilated by No Deal, akin to the 2008-09 financial crash. Gambling that the EU will blink at the last moment is crazy stuff.

MrMusician18 · 13-08-2019 02:30AM

Strazdas wrote: »

The Brexit crowd seem to think Ireland would be annihilated by No Deal, akin to the 2008-09 financial crash. Gambling that the EU will blink at the last moment is crazy stuff.

There are certain sector that will be annihilated by no deal. I'm thinking suckler farming in particular. I've posted on this before, but there are thousands of small suckler farms particularly in the BMW region that are so loss making, that it would be cheaper for the subsidy to pay farmers to not farm at all. The destruction of the beef market will see many of these farmers forced to exit the sector. This is a change that one could argue was coming anyway but both socially and economically will be a huge shock to rural areas and will leave a lot of men (many aged 50+) with nothing to do. Government can help of course, but let's be realistic - their means will be limited.

Other sections that will suffer will be construction, as Ireland is a submarket of the UK for a lot of products.

Peregrinus · 13-08-2019 02:38AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

We have a veto over future trade deals.

But we don't have a veto over the withdrawal agreement which covers such things as a transition period, existing workers' rights in the UK, the border on the island of Ireland and so forth.

We have an effective veto over those aspects of the withdrawal agreement which particularly concern Ireland - specifically, the border. It is unthinkable that the EU would conclude a WA which dealt specifically with Ireland on terms to which the Irish government objected.

It's true that Ireland is not one of the larger states in the Union. But, remember, the EU is dominated by states the size of Ireland and smaller. You can't assemble a qualified majority without them.

pauldla · 13-08-2019 03:54AM

From Reuters:

UK PM expects EU to cave in to save Ireland from 'no-deal' Brexit: the Sun

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes the European Union will cave in at the last minute and do a Brexit deal with him to “save Ireland”, the Sun newspaper reported on Monday, citing a source.

Ah, so they are saving us, then...?

Peregrinus · 13-08-2019 04:13AM

The EU is trying to do a deal to save Ireland. It's the UK that's the holdout.

What's missing from Boris's analysis is, if the EU is motivated to "save Ireland", a cave which doesn't save Ireland is not to be expected. And the cave which Boris is demanding doesn't save Ireland; on the contrary, it greatly harms Ireland.

So his reported position is a self-defeating one. Is there nobody in his circle who has the wit to see this, and the guts to point it out?

listermint · 13-08-2019 06:22AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The EU is trying to do a deal to save Ireland. It's the UK that's the holdout.

What's missing from Boris's analysis is, if the EU is motivated to "save Ireland", a cave which doesn't save Ireland is not to be expected. And the cave which Boris is demanding doesn't save Ireland; on the contrary, it greatly harms Ireland.

So his reported position is a self-defeating one. Is there nobody in his circle who has the wit to see this, and the guts to point it out?

It's full of 'exceptional' people...

RobMc59 · 13-08-2019 07:21AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

There is no mercy.

WE are the EU.

It has been stated repeatedly that "If Ireland isn't happy then the rest of the EU isn't happy". It really can't be repeated more often.

I have never agreed with brexit and still hope it is stopped,since Johnson has become PM there is a different atmosphere here in the UK-I truly believe he intends to take the UK out with no deal.
I haven't looked on this thread for a while but can see Britain's headlong charge over the cliff is causing tension amongst regular posters as the inevitable fallout will affect Ireland too.
Talk of UK fantasic deals with the US scare me more than brexit.

Enzokk · 13-08-2019 07:32AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I have never agreed with brexit and still hope it is stopped,since Johnson has become PM there is a different atmosphere here in the UK-I truly believe he intends to take the UK out with no deal.
I haven't looked on this thread for a while but can see Britain's headlong charge over the cliff is causing tension amongst regular posters as the inevitable fallout will affect Ireland too.
Talk of UK fantasic deals with the US scare me more than brexit.

Remember that all trade deals go through the Ways and Means Committee and that is controlled by the Democrats. The chairperson of that committee has already said if the UK goes against the GFA they will not be rewarded with a trade deal. There are flaws to the UK thinking and unless the EU and Ireland blinks at the last minute, there will be harm as well.

If we do blink at the last minute as well it will reinforce the thinking about the EU moving at the last minute to get a deal and will do just as much harm as no-deal, if not more. Other countries will want a renegotiation of their deals and will try the same tactic. Backing down now will open a can of worms that the EU will not want in other areas as well.

Can you imagine if the EU backs down now and gives the UK an out with the backstop? Let's say it is removed because they commit to a FTA that will remove checks. If the trade talks reach a point where the UK is not happy we are at the same position in 2 years time at the end of the transition with the UK threatening to leave again without a trade deal that will ensure no checks are needed. But this time they will know the EU backs down at the last minute so they will be even more resolute to crash the car again and wait for the EU to move.

Peregrinus · 13-08-2019 07:50AM

There could not be a less propitious time and circumstance for the UK to be seeking a US FTA than just after a no-deal Brexit, and with Trump in the White House. Really, the only reason a UK government would pursue one at this point is because it would be too politically embarrassing to admit that doing so is a really, really bad idea.

PS: Worth pointing out that while lots of Brexiters have been very gung-ho about the need for a great trade deal with the US, they have said next to nothing about what the UK might seek in such a trade deal, what it might hope to get, and how it might benefit the UK to get it. Just as Brexiters never actually bothered to develop a Brexit policy, which is why the UK is now in the mess it's in, as far as I can see they have never bothered to develop a trade policy either.

This won't end well.

KildareP · 13-08-2019 08:17AM

Act of self-harm is most damaging to actor shock revelation:
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1160947796247232512?s=21

Good grief that this has to be spelled out and even then will still be denounced by many as Project Fear is just... there are no words.

And that Johnson - who now *is* government - has presumably read this is an indication either of the level of bluffing being done or the sheer recklessness of what is about to be carried out under his watch.

kuro68k · 13-08-2019 08:50AM

I see the US is lining up to rip off a weak and desperate post-brexit UK again today.

johnnyskeleton · 13-08-2019 08:50AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

However any subsequent trade deal could be vetoed.

Like the rest of brexiters you assume wa is a trade deal, it's a stepping stone to one, and uk is not willing take first step despite agreeing to the path.

Mod note:

Dont put words in other posters mouths or attribute to them what you assume they think. Thanks

lawred2 · 13-08-2019 08:50AM

KildareP wrote: »

Act of self-harm is most damaging to actor shock revelation:
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1160947796247232512?s=21

Good grief that this has to be spelled out and even then will still be denounced by many as Project Fear is just... there are no words.

And that Johnson - who now *is* government - has presumably read this is an indication either of the level of bluffing being done or the sheer recklessness of what is about to be carried out under his watch.

denounced as 'bollocks'

https://twitter.com/gonzo0909/status/1160953529646891009?s=20

Igotadose · 13-08-2019 08:55AM

lawred2 wrote: »

denounced as 'bollocks'

https://twitter.com/gonzo0909/status/1160953529646891009?s=20

By some Russian BOT.

UK needs a general strike or work slowdown to get the government to revoke A50. Regular parliamentary procedure has failed.

If not now, there'll be plenty of strikes once no-deal hits.

J Mysterio · 13-08-2019 08:58AM

Strazdas wrote: »

I like Tom, he's a very good writer and a nice man.

The Brexiteers are delusional though....they seem to think No Deal will somehow decimate the Irish economy

How can the editor of the Sun be a nice man? That's an oxymoron surely.

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 09:02AM

lawred2 wrote: »

denounced as 'bollocks'

https://twitter.com/gonzo0909/status/1160953529646891009?s=20

Thrived before the EU? Weren't they refereed to as the sick man of Europe before they joined?

20silkcut · 13-08-2019 09:18AM

Enzokk wrote: »

Remember that all trade deals go through the Ways and Means Committee and that is controlled by the Democrats. The chairperson of that committee has already said if the UK goes against the GFA they will not be rewarded with a trade deal. There are flaws to the UK thinking and unless the EU and Ireland blinks at the last minute, there will be harm as well.

If we do blink at the last minute as well it will reinforce the thinking about the EU moving at the last minute to get a deal and will do just as much harm as no-deal, if not more. Other countries will want a renegotiation of their deals and will try the same tactic. Backing down now will open a can of worms that the EU will not want in other areas as well.

Can you imagine if the EU backs down now and gives the UK an out with the backstop? Let's say it is removed because they commit to a FTA that will remove checks. If the trade talks reach a point where the UK is not happy we are at the same position in 2 years time at the end of the transition with the UK threatening to leave again without a trade deal that will ensure no checks are needed. But this time they will know the EU backs down at the last minute so they will be even more resolute to crash the car again and wait for the EU to move.

Is it now the case that removal of the backstop is not enough now anyway?

Is that what Tony Connolly tweeted about the UK not accepting the level playing field provision of the withdrawal agreement even if the backstop was removed??

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 09:23AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Is it now the case that removal of the backstop is not enough now anyway?

Is that what Tony Connolly tweeted about the UK not accepting the level playing field provision of the withdrawal agreement even if the backstop was removed??

Yep. But who knows what exactly Johnson wants, apart from staying on as PM of course. It's all pre-election rhetoric anyway. Best ignored.

Peregrinus · 13-08-2019 09:30AM

Johnson is either (a) playing chicken, expecting/hoping that the EU will blink first or (b) intentionally working for a no-deal outcome, but positioningh himself to blame others for it.

On the one hand, it seems unlikely that he's playing chicken, since the UK is a Trabant and the EU is an armoured personnel carrier; it's a game he's almost certain to lose, as must be obvious to him.

On the other hand, it seems unlikely that he's intentionally working for a no-deal outcome since it will make it difficult for him to remain in office and, if he does remain in office, it makes it certain that his term of office will be regarded at the time and with hindsight as disastrous for Britain.

So, what gives? How can it be that one of two highly unlikely things must be true?

I think the answer is that, dismal as both these options are, Johnson feels they are the only options he has, and he has chosen whichever of the two he regards as the less awful. But I don't know which it is.

Bit cynical · 13-08-2019 09:32AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

We have an effective veto over those aspects of the withdrawal agreement which particularly concern Ireland - specifically, the border. It is unthinkable that the EU would conclude a WA which dealt specifically with Ireland on terms to which the Irish government objected.

It's true that Ireland is not one of the larger states in the Union. But, remember, the EU is dominated by states the size of Ireland and smaller. You can't assemble a qualified majority without them.

However the worry for Ireland has never been that some deal would be done that was not satisfactory for Ireland. There's never been pressure from the EU on Ireland to drop its insistence on the backstop for example. The worry rather is that no deal at all would be done.

Bit cynical · 13-08-2019 09:42AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think the answer is that, dismal as both these options are, Johnson feels they are the only options he has, and he has chosen whichever of the two he regards as the less awful. But I don't know which it is.

The options would appear to be:

1. Go back to parliament again with the WA. I don't think this is an option after parliament rejecting it three times.

2. Ask for a delay. I don't think there's much appetite for this from within the UK although the EU have said they are open to it.

3. Revoke A50. Not really an option for a pro-Brexit PM elected by his party on the basis he would take the UK out of the EU.

4. Leave on no deal but keep the option open for the EU to propose a revised deal.

With the last option, I'm sure he would love for the EU to come back with a revised deal but he knows this is unlikely. Nevertheless it plays well at home. So as things stand, it is leave on no deal unless he (or the EU) is planning something that no one is expecting.

murphaph · 13-08-2019 09:44AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

However the worry for Ireland has never been that some deal would be done that was not satisfactory for Ireland. There's never been pressure from the EU on Ireland to drop its insistence on the backstop for example. The worry rather is that no deal at all would be done.

No deal is better than a bad deal.

Stop moaning ffs · 13-08-2019 09:51AM

The daily attacks and lies about Varadkar get more bizarre by the day. In today’s edition, Leo apparently has threatened to ban British flights from Irish airspace.
We know what the British media are at, but who is orchestrating it and will they be made to answer for it at any point? Do they have a press standards committee or something that can hold them to account does anyone know?

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1161079920350715905?s=21

johnnyskeleton · 13-08-2019 09:55AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The daily attacks and lies about Varadkar get more bizarre by the day. In today’s edition, Leo apparently has threatened to ban British flights from Irish airspace.
We know what the British media are at, but who is orchestrating it and will they be made to answer for it at any point? Do they have a press standards committee or something that can hold them to account does anyone know?

https://twitter.com/castlvillageman/status/1161079920350715905?s=21

Just for clarity, that tweet is from today but the artivle was last year and debunked by the journal.ie, amongst others:

https://www.thejournal.ie/factcheck-taoiseach-british-planes-irish-skies-4137889-Jul2018/

prawnsambo · 13-08-2019 09:56AM

Bit cynical wrote: »

The options would appear to be:

1. Go back to parliament again with the WA. I don't think this is an option after parliament rejecting it three times.

2. Ask for a delay. I don't think there's much appetite for this from within the UK although the EU have said they are open to it.

3. Revoke A50. Not really an option for a pro-Brexit PM elected by his party on the basis he would take the UK out of the EU.

4. Leave on no deal but keep the option open for the EU to propose a revised deal.

With the last option, I'm sure he would love for the EU to come back with a revised deal but he knows this is unlikely. Nevertheless it plays well at home. So as things stand, it is leave on no deal unless he (or the EU) is planning something that no one is expecting.

You've left out the one option that seems (to me anyway) as the most obvious one.
Have a GE before brexit day (while he can be all things to all voters bar ultra-remainers) and then get the majority that gives him his main priorities; (a) remain on as PM and (b) dump the DUP.

InTheShadows · 13-08-2019 10:01AM

It hasn't sunk in yet for a lot of people here but they are leaving without a deal in a few weeks. To say preparations here are lacking would be a massive understatement.

reslfj · 13-08-2019 10:02AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I know this. But unless we have a veto over decisions we ARE at the mercy of EU decisions re Brexit.

Do we (ROI) have a veto, sorry to have to ask, but it's late and I think you and others might know the answers. Thanks.

Small countries do not use their veto even when there has to be unanimity among members. It is the nuclear option, which should be avoided at almost any cost. It is simply stupid politics
(It's bad policy for large countries too, but the can better survive)

Small countries should focus on good governance, pursuing rational and achievable goals, postponing silly domestic (personal) fights and getting friends among - in casu - other EU members.

If a matter is vital to a member and worth a veto, there will not be even a QMV 'Yes' in the Council.

The strength of small countries in the EU is getting their voice heard, getting their consistent, skilled, facts driven and respected work known throughout the institutions and being helpful to others when they have a (real) problem.

Lars

VinLieger · 13-08-2019 10:03AM

InTheShadows wrote: »

It hasn't sunk in yet for a lot of people here but they are leaving without a deal in a few weeks. To say preparations here are lacking would be a massive understatement.

Which is completely untrue but id love to see any evidence you have to support your claim

LordBasil · 13-08-2019 10:05AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

You've left out the one option that seems (to me anyway) as the most obvious one.
Have a GE before brexit day (while he can be all things to all voters bar ultra-remainers) and then get the majority that gives him his main priorities; (a) remain on as PM and (b) dump the DUP.

Yeah, I think that's likely to happen most. If he can get a majority and get rid of the DUP it would give him the option of a NI only backstop again. Even though he said NI should not be different from the rest of the UK, he knows if No Deal happens on Nov 1st he might be left with no option but to accept that.

The thing Boris wants more than anything is power, now that he has it he will do anything to keep it, including throwing the DUP under the bus. I wouldn't put anything past him.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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