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Rainfall Warning : Heavy Rain and Potential Thunderstorms Thurs 8 - Fri 9 Aug 2019

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24567…21

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    #32
    adocholiday
    Registered Users Posts: 1,832 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Villain wrote: »
    Potential to go to Orange level in the Southeast based on some models, will be interesting to see 12z updates.

    Storm 10 the wind event looks to mainly be offshore based on most tracks but certainly a windy day likely Saturday.

    An orange wind warning? Or rain?


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    #33
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,473 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Run for your lives! :D


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    #34
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    Just coming in over Citywest


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    #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,337 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    12z GFS rainfall forecasts from 18z Thursday to 18z Saturday show maximum amounts in Galway, Roscommon, Longford, north Offaly, and into southeast Ulster, 50 to 75 mm total for the period. A fair portion of that would fall on Saturday, so the suggestion is that the warm front makes steady progress north overnight, begins to stall and pivot on Friday in south Connacht, and more activity feeds in from the southwest overnight into Saturday. Total amounts of about 30 mm are shown in west Munster, to 15-20 mm in south Leinster, and also a good deal less over northwestern counties (20-40 mm).


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    #36
    km79
    Registered Users Posts: 48,132 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Jesus we can’t take much more
    I hate seeing the word pivot in a forecast Cos it usually ends up pivoting over us
    Looking at the chars here all day and predictive sequences I can’t understand why the warning was just for Leinster and Munster at any stage


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    #37
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 402 ✭✭Reversal


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    12z GFS rainfall forecasts from 18z Thursday to 18z Saturday show maximum amounts in Galway, Roscommon, Longford, north Offaly, and into southeast Ulster, 50 to 75 mm total for the period. A fair portion of that would fall on Saturday, so the suggestion is that the warm front makes steady progress north overnight, begins to stall and pivot on Friday in south Connacht, and more activity feeds in from the southwest overnight into Saturday. Total amounts of about 30 mm are shown in west Munster, to 15-20 mm in south Leinster, and also a good deal less over northwestern counties (20-40 mm).

    Noticed earlier on the the GFS is at odds with the hi Res models reference rainfall totals in different area. Hi Res models suggesting south Leinster will see the highest totals.


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    #38
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The ECM at this stage is showing the SE going into Orange warning category and along the S also as would seem to have a potential for around 40mm+ in 12 hrs. Not nailed down yet. Big discrepancy with the GFS . Both models have been sticking more or less to the same outcome these last few runs. Personally would have to lean towards the ECM.

    Met Eireann

    Criteria for Orange – Weather Warnings

    50mm – 70mm in 24 hrs
    40mm – 50mm in 12 hrs
    30mm – 40mm in 6 hrs


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    #39
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,090 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Nice.

    Will there be much sparks with this?


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    #40
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE 12Z

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    Might need to extend this thread to cover Sat also as currently there could be another 10 mm or more on top of very large totals.

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    #41
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    km79 wrote: »
    Jesus we can’t take much more
    I hate seeing the word pivot in a forecast Cos it usually ends up pivoting over us

    For some reason, we seem to live a part of Ireland where 'pivoting' is more likely to occur. No stats to back this up, but just something I have observed.

    New Moon



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    #42
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    For some reason, we seem to live a part of Ireland where 'pivoting' is more likely to occur. No stats to back this up, but just something I have observed.

    Just putting up a GIF to show this.

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    #43
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The Fax charts show the complexity of the LP system . It looks like the triple point reaching us first as the initial fronts are well out in front of the center ( by a few hundred Km's ) which does not reach us until around midday Fri. A huge system with multiple fronts and troughs. Tough one to forecast.




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    #44
    seamusk84
    Registered Users Posts: 880 ✭✭✭seamusk84


    So much for a nice walk on Saturday morning/afternoon....


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    #45
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    The Fax charts show the complexity of the LP system . It looks like the triple point reaching us first as the initial fronts are well out in front of the center ( by a few hundred Km's ) which does not reach us until around midday Fri. A huge system with multiple fronts and troughs. Tough one to forecast.




    Would it be a case then, where the longevity might be greater than the intensity, so might give drainage systems more time to deal with?


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    #46
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Windy at times , more so on coasts with variable wind directions.

    Gusts

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    #47
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    bazlers wrote: »
    Would it be a case then, where the longevity might be greater than the intensity, so might give drainage systems more time to deal with?


    The heaviest rain initially will be overnight Thurs into Fri morning. A short break perhaps followed by heavy rain as more fronts cross and pivot over the country.


    Possible thunderstorms with locally very heavy rain.

    This will be teased out more over coming runs.


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    #48
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    Meteorite58 wrote: »
    The heaviest rain initially will be overnight Thurs into Fri morning. A short break perhaps followed by heavy rain as more fronts cross and pivot over the country.


    Possible thunderstorms with locally very heavy rain.

    This will be teased out more over coming runs.

    Am hoping the thunderstorms materialise and that it’s not just a wind and heavy rain event.


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    #49
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    AROME's take on the initial overnight heavy rain. Plenty more to come during the day alos from other bands of rain.

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    #50
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    esposito wrote: »
    Am hoping the thunderstorms materialise and that it’s not just a wind and heavy rain event.

    Models are predicting thunderstorms as the rain pushes up over the country Thurs night / Fri morning .Lot of Deep Layer Shear , very high 850hPa Temps temperatures. A lot of instability in the atmosphere I would reckon. Fri looking active also.

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    #51
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Temperatures will rise tomorrow night as the fronts push up over the country. Warm close night in store getting up to 17C or 18C with DP's 16C to 17C !

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    Dew Point


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    #52
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    yr.no forecasting 28mm for Dun Laoghaire tomorrow night in one single 6 hour period. Others here have more experience of these forecasts, but I don't think I've ever seen that high a rainfall total for one time block on a chart :eek:


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    #53
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    I would be very surprised if one of the models gets it even 80% right. Precipitation always difficult. Looking forward to it all unfolding though. Just a pity I've still turf on the bog : (


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    #54
    Monkeynut
    Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    bazlers wrote: »
    I would be very surprised if one of the models gets it even 80% right. Precipitation always difficult. Looking forward to it all unfolding though. Just a pity I've still turf on the bog : (
    I guess you'll end up with a bog in a bog.
    I don't know much about turf. Other that my friends dad in Roscommon has mountains of it out his back.


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    #55
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,066 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Lawnmowers at the ready tomorrow


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    #56
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,545 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Any chance Met Éireann will have the Shannon radar working for this event?


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    #57
    Snowc
    Registered Users Posts: 613 ✭✭✭Snowc


    Looks like a very wet night tomorrow for the west coast ,on the up side it probably land on km79 head judging by his post on here :D


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    #58
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,090 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    giveitholly wrote: »
    Any chance Met Éireann will have the Shannon radar working for this event?

    No, next week I think?


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    #59
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,090 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    I love warmth and monsoons.
    Bring it.

    Almost as good as snow.
    Almost.


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    #60
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,473 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    esposito wrote: »
    Am hoping the thunderstorms materialise and that it’s not just a wind and heavy rain event.

    Good chance of some embedded thunderstorms from tomorrow evening alright and overnight. Will be very interesting either way.


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    #61
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    yr.no forecasting 28mm for Dun Laoghaire tomorrow night in one single 6 hour period. Others here have more experience of these forecasts, but I don't think I've ever seen that high a rainfall total for one time block on a chart :eek:

    We had several reports of >20mm in one hour in heavy showers this week.. The heavy rain will be spread over a much larger area tomorrow night though so will affect river levels a lot more.

    It looks heavy on the models but the main front is fast moving so to my eyes at least the heaviest rain won't be sitting on top of anyone for too long. Most is also forecast overnight as well so shouldn't cause too much disruption hopefully


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