Rainfall Warning : Heavy Rain and Potential Thunderstorms Thurs 8 - Fri 9 Aug 2019

Meteorite58

Thought it would be a good time to start a dedicated thread for what now looks like very heavy rain Thurs Night / Fri and risk of potential thunderstorms also. Currently looks like having a risk of spot flooding in parts. Models differing in where the heaviest rainfall will be but the S and SE coasts are standing out at this stage. Worth keeping a track of developments over the coming days.

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Note: Updated warning Thurs 20.13

Met Eireann


Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland
Update to warning:
A spell of heavy rain this evening and tonight will lead to rainfall accumulations of 25 to 40mm. Spot flooding possible.

Valid: Thursday 08 August 2019 19:00 to Friday 09 August 2019 07:00

Meteorite58

IMO It looks windy from early Friday with the frontal passage sweeping up over the country but currently below warning level at this stage. During the day windier on coasts with variable wind directions as the Low will more than likely be close to being centered over us, as it moves further N could get quite windy in the SW but again in general just below warning level at this stage. Gales at sea. On Sat in general looks windier across the country and up along the E for a time but below warning level going by the main models apart from ARPEGE which is showing yellow warning level winds for a time , atm looking like gusting 60 to 70 km/h overland for the most , possibly higher near coasts. Fri could have strong convective gusts as it there is a threat of thunderstorms.

The models are tweaking the track and timing of this so can expect some changes over the coming days.

aisling86

Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Wonder will it change dramatically over the next 48hrs, if not I'm situated in a good location for it!

Meteorite58

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1158848478002458624?s=19

sryanbruen

Let's not post about the big phony that is the "Joint Cyclone Center".

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Note that, despite the name, very official-looking logo and flashy graphics, the Joint Cyclone Center is nothing more than one private individual in Miami and has no links to any official forecasting service.

pauldry

Probably one of those 25 to 40mm warnings that we get.

Munster and South Leinster worse Thursday possibly lingering in Ulster and Sligo Friday

Storm 10

Pictures taken by my Son while out training with Galway Lifeboat tonight in Galway Bay cool cloud formations

tartetatin

Storm 10 wrote: »

Pictures taken by my Son while out training with Galway Lifeboat tonight in Galway Bay cool cloud formations

Spectacular pictures Storm 10

Kermit.de.frog

This could well dump a lot of rain in a relatively short period across the country. Spot flooding seems likely through Thursday night and Friday morning at least.

uck51js9zml2yt

Typical. I take the week off to do work outside and it does nothing but rain.

Might go back to work just to spoil it for you all

Storm 10

tartetatin wrote: »

Spectacular pictures Storm 10

Thanks tartetatin it really shows the kind of weather conditions that our Lifeboat Crews face on a regular basis.

aisling86

https://www.met.ie/warnings

Here we go......

leahyl

Talking about a subtroical storm now on Facebook and quoting the Cyclone Centre that another poster said wasn't very reliable :rolleyes:

It's not like we're not used to rain; it'll be pretty wet but I'm sure we'll get through it....cue massive hurricane :P

RobertKK

The weather respects the boundaries of the provinces.

Some areas of the south east still have not received a lot of rain so it will be welcome.

aisling86

I was only looking at this earlier, https://www.rte.ie/archives/collections/news/21221522-flooding-in-south-west/?fbclid=IwAR2ZM84tSirkBhkuxLgmfluQqnIdGZEic7J0esNErOG97BpHJq4kQvZXC5w

Oscar Bravo

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Munster and Leinster

Heavy Rain will spread from the south Thursday evening and night. Accumulations of 25 to 40mm will occur over a relatively short time period. Spot flooding is likely.

Valid: Thursday 08 August 2019 19:00 to Friday 09 August 2019 07:00

SleetAndSnow

Do I stay in cork city or go to west cork by the coast.. wonder which will see more rain

m17

The m17 near Athenry yesterday morning

TheW1zard

The amount of **** that will be released into the Liffey will be tremendous

sryanbruen

aisling86 wrote: »

I was only looking at this earlier, https://www.rte.ie/archives/collections/news/21221522-flooding-in-south-west/?fbclid=IwAR2ZM84tSirkBhkuxLgmfluQqnIdGZEic7J0esNErOG97BpHJq4kQvZXC5w

Whilst not being a windstorm, I think it's quite the coincidence that this deep low is impacting Ireland a few days before the 40th anniversary of the Fastnet 1979 disaster.

Meteorite58

24 hr precipitation predicted by the main models.Quite a difference in the models but ECM and ARPEGE and UKMO quite similar where the highest totals will be.

Peculiar that ICON is so different.

ECM




ARPEGE



UKMO




GEM



GFS




ICON

SlinkyL

hmmmm... camping in Dungarvan til Saturday.. thinking packing up on Thursday morning looking like a good idea!!

aisling86

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Do I stay in cork city or go to west cork by the coast.. wonder which will see more rain

My mother loves a good storm, they have headed to bantry for a few days, she will be in her element.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: squarecircles moved your post re Met Eireann to the Met Eireann dedicated thread https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470

Please do not drag this thread off topic.

Reversal

Is there any more confidence of where/when, or even if the threat of thunderstorms still exists?

Storm 10

Guys the talk of a possible wind event when is that likely to happen

Villain

Potential to go to Orange level in the Southeast based on some models, will be interesting to see 12z updates.

Storm 10 the wind event looks to mainly be offshore based on most tracks but certainly a windy day likely Saturday.

Storm 10

Just had a shower like I have never seen in a long time East side of Galway City, flooding on all roads they are like rivers.

aisling86

What time are the new runs out? Is there a slight shift east? The heaviest rain was coming in over Bantry yesterday, looking like east cork now.

Oneiric 3

Latest ECMWF offering. Hourly totals of up to 10mm reaching the south coast by Thursday evening:



If as forecast, no doubt we'll be seeing flood reports from prone areas in Cork City.

adocholiday

Villain wrote: »

Potential to go to Orange level in the Southeast based on some models, will be interesting to see 12z updates.

Storm 10 the wind event looks to mainly be offshore based on most tracks but certainly a windy day likely Saturday.

An orange wind warning? Or rain?

Kermit.de.frog

Run for your lives!

jimmynokia

Just coming in over Citywest

M.T. Cranium

12z GFS rainfall forecasts from 18z Thursday to 18z Saturday show maximum amounts in Galway, Roscommon, Longford, north Offaly, and into southeast Ulster, 50 to 75 mm total for the period. A fair portion of that would fall on Saturday, so the suggestion is that the warm front makes steady progress north overnight, begins to stall and pivot on Friday in south Connacht, and more activity feeds in from the southwest overnight into Saturday. Total amounts of about 30 mm are shown in west Munster, to 15-20 mm in south Leinster, and also a good deal less over northwestern counties (20-40 mm).

km79

Jesus we can’t take much more
I hate seeing the word pivot in a forecast Cos it usually ends up pivoting over us
Looking at the chars here all day and predictive sequences I can’t understand why the warning was just for Leinster and Munster at any stage

Reversal

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

12z GFS rainfall forecasts from 18z Thursday to 18z Saturday show maximum amounts in Galway, Roscommon, Longford, north Offaly, and into southeast Ulster, 50 to 75 mm total for the period. A fair portion of that would fall on Saturday, so the suggestion is that the warm front makes steady progress north overnight, begins to stall and pivot on Friday in south Connacht, and more activity feeds in from the southwest overnight into Saturday. Total amounts of about 30 mm are shown in west Munster, to 15-20 mm in south Leinster, and also a good deal less over northwestern counties (20-40 mm).

Noticed earlier on the the GFS is at odds with the hi Res models reference rainfall totals in different area. Hi Res models suggesting south Leinster will see the highest totals.

Meteorite58

The ECM at this stage is showing the SE going into Orange warning category and along the S also as would seem to have a potential for around 40mm+ in 12 hrs. Not nailed down yet. Big discrepancy with the GFS . Both models have been sticking more or less to the same outcome these last few runs. Personally would have to lean towards the ECM.

Met Eireann

Criteria for Orange – Weather Warnings

50mm – 70mm in 24 hrs
40mm – 50mm in 12 hrs
30mm – 40mm in 6 hrs

igCorcaigh

Nice.

Will there be much sparks with this?

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z















Might need to extend this thread to cover Sat also as currently there could be another 10 mm or more on top of very large totals.

Oneiric 3

km79 wrote: »

Jesus we can’t take much more
I hate seeing the word pivot in a forecast Cos it usually ends up pivoting over us

For some reason, we seem to live a part of Ireland where 'pivoting' is more likely to occur. No stats to back this up, but just something I have observed.

Meteorite58

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

For some reason, we seem to live a part of Ireland where 'pivoting' is more likely to occur. No stats to back this up, but just something I have observed.

Just putting up a GIF to show this.

Meteorite58

The Fax charts show the complexity of the LP system . It looks like the triple point reaching us first as the initial fronts are well out in front of the center ( by a few hundred Km's ) which does not reach us until around midday Fri. A huge system with multiple fronts and troughs. Tough one to forecast.

seamusk84

So much for a nice walk on Saturday morning/afternoon....

bazlers

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The Fax charts show the complexity of the LP system . It looks like the triple point reaching us first as the initial fronts are well out in front of the center ( by a few hundred Km's ) which does not reach us until around midday Fri. A huge system with multiple fronts and troughs. Tough one to forecast.

Would it be a case then, where the longevity might be greater than the intensity, so might give drainage systems more time to deal with?

Meteorite58

Windy at times , more so on coasts with variable wind directions.

Gusts

Meteorite58

bazlers wrote: »

Would it be a case then, where the longevity might be greater than the intensity, so might give drainage systems more time to deal with?

The heaviest rain initially will be overnight Thurs into Fri morning. A short break perhaps followed by heavy rain as more fronts cross and pivot over the country.


Possible thunderstorms with locally very heavy rain.

This will be teased out more over coming runs.

esposito

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The heaviest rain initially will be overnight Thurs into Fri morning. A short break perhaps followed by heavy rain as more fronts cross and pivot over the country.


Possible thunderstorms with locally very heavy rain.

This will be teased out more over coming runs.

Am hoping the thunderstorms materialise and that it’s not just a wind and heavy rain event.

Meteorite58

AROME's take on the initial overnight heavy rain. Plenty more to come during the day alos from other bands of rain.

Meteorite58

esposito wrote: »

Am hoping the thunderstorms materialise and that it’s not just a wind and heavy rain event.

Models are predicting thunderstorms as the rain pushes up over the country Thurs night / Fri morning .Lot of Deep Layer Shear , very high 850hPa Temps temperatures. A lot of instability in the atmosphere I would reckon. Fri looking active also.

Meteorite58

Temperatures will rise tomorrow night as the fronts push up over the country. Warm close night in store getting up to 17C or 18C with DP's 16C to 17C !











Dew Point