Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Rainfall Warning : Heavy Rain and Potential Thunderstorms Thurs 8 - Fri 9 Aug 2019
Options
Comments
-
-
Dorian Little Mummy wrote: »Are we likely to see any rain in the morning in our neck of the woods?
I need to paint my shed roof!!!
Should be dry in Kerry until early tomorrow evening ,a few outside jobs to finish myself
0 -
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
Will put Convective Weather's forecast here as relevant to the weather Thurs /Fri.
Note: Passage in bold type is their original.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 08 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 09 Aug 2019
ISSUED 20:31 UTC Wed 07 Aug 2019
ISSUED BY: Dan
An upper ridge will build across the British Isles on Thursday, largely suppressing deep convection. However, isolated showers are likely across parts of Scotland in particular, but generally weak instability and limited cloud depth suggests the risk of lightning is rather low.
The main interest during this forecast period will be during Thursday night. An upper trough over the mid North Atlantic will swing northeastwards, encouraging northward advection of subtropical moisture towards the British Isles. A warm front will mark the boundary of this high Theta-W air, which will gradually spread northwards across the English Channel / Celtic Sea, then southern and central Britain and Ireland through the overnight period.
Pockets of elevated convection will be possible embedded within the main frontal rain, which will arrive over SW England during Thursday afternoon - but the window of best potential for deep moist convection (and hence lightning activity) will be within the warm sector / behind the main warm frontal rain as low-levels continue to warm (and moisten) while subtle cooling aloft occurs, ultimately steepening mid-level lapse rates and increasing instability.
On the forward side of the upper trough, large-scale forced ascent (particularly associated with the cold front) combined with elements of isentropic upglide will likely result in scattered elevated thunderstorms developing over parts of the Celtic Sea and western England Channel during the second half of Thursday evening, with other elevated thunderstorms sporadically developing as they drift NNE-wards through the night hours.
The exact coverage of lightning activity is questionable due to a combination of fairly saturated profiles (which will serve to reduce lightning potential) and also due to the bifurcating upper flow, which will tend to steer cells near SW England / S Wales towards the NNE, while cells near Ireland will drift more to the NNW, potentially leaving a relative minima of activity in-between. The areas with the greatest lightning potential are highlighted by the low-end MDT, but sporadic lightning will be possible elsewhere within the SLGT during the early hours of Friday from more localised pockets of mid-level instability release. There is often more uncertainty with elevated thunderstorms (such as in this case) than surface-based thunderstorms, and hence the risk areas tend to be a lot broader - and it is expected quite a few places even within the SLGT/MDT will remain void of lightning.0 -
Talking about a subtroical storm now on Facebook and quoting the Cyclone Centre that another poster said wasn't very reliable :rolleyes:
It's not like we're not used to rain; it'll be pretty wet but I'm sure we'll get through it....cue massive hurricane :P
My first thought was... will my shopping get here before it hits! These things matter
0 -
Looks like a very wet night tomorrow for the west coast ,on the up side it probably land on km79 head judging by his post on here
Thought this was an east coast event.. ah well... west mayo offshore island
will do as always.. hunker down and wait it out.. thunder is very loud as the dwelling is aluminium and not soundproofed0 -
-
Advertisement
-
ECM accumulated totals, scaled back a bit on earlier runs. Still looking quite high along Southern and SE coasts especially.
Initial band of rain looks like dropping up to 20 - 25mm overnight along the S, SE, E, NE and W and Friday looking like heavy rain at times with a risk of thunderstorms.
0 -
-
-
-
-
Dorian Little Mummy wrote: »What time will it hit Tralee?
I need another few hours to finish the painting and it to dry!
There's some heat in the sun this morning.
I'd say you would want the last coat on around 13.00 to give it a few hours to dry
Probably rain reaching Tralee around 17.00 - 18.00.0 -
-
Kermit.de.frog wrote: »Euro4 showing potential thundery pulses following quickly behind the main band of heavy rain overnight.
Yea more than likely thunderstorms moving up the country overnight I would think. Very strong shear along Southern coasts initially will transfer up the country to a slightly lesser extent.
ECM is showing the potential for thunderstorms moving up along the SE/ E coasts overnight where some very heavy rain is being predicted.
Perhaps quite active along Southern coasts initially.
All eyes on the radars tonight!
https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1159354184468185088?s=200 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
Advertisement