Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali · 01-08-2019 08:17AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Even though it is a trivial enough matter it Highlights the England first mentality of the United Kingdom in my opinion.

I've even had high street shop staff in London volunteer that they'll take Euros if I had those instead.

murphaph · 01-08-2019 09:15AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Don't forget Eastern European people will be perfectly free to travel to UK airports even after No Deal. Freedom of movement laws refer only to the right to work : there would be no need for such people to enter Britain via the ROI (waste of a plane ticket)

I'm not so sure.

The UK Border Force will make a note of when Pawel arrived from Warsaw and they will start checking departing passengers' passports (if they don't already) to ensure that they didn't overstay the 90 days or whatever.

It will be reasonably easy for the Home Office to discover strange travel patterns, that might indicate an individual is actually resident in the UK rather than say Poland.

That surveillance can be completely bypassed by flying into DUB first and then taking either a direct flight to a GB airport (assuming CTA remains as is with UK airports handling Irish arrivals as domestic) or in the event the CTA is "somewhat restricted" and identity checks are instigated on ex RoI flights, then they will take a private car (there will be a bustling black market "taxi" trade ferrying Eastern Europeans to/from Dublin-Belfast as coaches are likely to be checked on arrival at Belfast) to Belfast and travel onwards from there.

declanflynn · 01-08-2019 09:40AM

A hard Brexit will solve the uk immigration problem from November they will have almost no trade deals with anyone will be swamped will cheap **** food and goods from all over the world go into a deep recession, my only worry about a hard Brexit is how do stop British economic immigrants coming over here and into the eu

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 10:04AM

We’ll that’s one way of spinning it. Of course the money is just resting in their accounts for now

https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1156681386872303616?s=21

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 10:05AM

declanflynn wrote: »

A hard Brexit will solve the uk immigration problem from November they will have almost no trade deals with anyone will be swamped will cheap **** food and goods from all over the world go into a deep recession, my only worry about a hard Brexit is how do stop British economic immigrants coming over here and into the eu

Over a million irish passport applications from the uk.
You’re definitely going to see a percentage of that move over I reckon. Even if it’s small

A Dub in Glasgo · 01-08-2019 10:15AM

Regarding last nights Newsnight, Powell was excellent and really knows his stuff. It is a pity he is not on the media circuit more often to counter the Brexiters. Newsnight planned to run a segment on the economics of what Johnson is doing, ie tax cuts and throwing money around. They pulled it at the last minute

https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1156690046755528707

Peregrinus · 01-08-2019 10:24AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Over a million irish passport applications from the uk.
You’re definitely going to see a percentage of that move over I reckon. Even if it’s small

UK citizens don't need Irish passports to move to Ireland.

mickoneill31 · 01-08-2019 10:25AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Over a million irish passport applications from the uk.
You’re definitely going to see a percentage of that move over I reckon. Even if it’s small

They can move over without the Irish passport and just apply for citizenship after a period of time. There's a guy in my job that's done that.
Moved his family over a couple of months ago.

We (the Irish guys) complain about Ireland but when we do he tells us how it was back in Scotland. Irelands not so bad

. He loves it here.

ZeroThreat · 01-08-2019 10:28AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Over a million irish passport applications from the uk.
You’re definitely going to see a percentage of that move over I reckon. Even if it’s small

Not to mention the (what is it - nearly 1 million?) Irish born people living in the UK, we many have a problem trying to prevent the return of many of these.

kub · 01-08-2019 10:30AM

If anyone has a radio at hand tune into Rte Radio 1 now, there is a debate about the UK media bullying Ireland regarding Brexit

Peregrinus · 01-08-2019 10:34AM

murphaph wrote: »

I'm not so sure.

The UK Border Force will make a note of when Pawel arrived from Warsaw and they will start checking departing passengers' passports (if they don't already) to ensure that they didn't overstay the 90 days or whatever.

It will be reasonably easy for the Home Office to discover strange travel patterns, that might indicate an individual is actually resident in the UK rather than say Poland.

That surveillance can be completely bypassed by flying into DUB first and then taking either a direct flight to a GB airport (assuming CTA remains as is with UK airports handling Irish arrivals as domestic) or in the event the CTA is "somewhat restricted" and identity checks are instigated on ex RoI flights, then they will take a private car (there will be a bustling black market "taxi" trade ferrying Eastern Europeans to/from Dublin-Belfast as coaches are likely to be checked on arrival at Belfast) to Belfast and travel onwards from there.

No, really.

While it's true that the UK could check passports of departing passengers to see if they have overstayed their visas, they don't do so systematically at present, and they don't intend to in the future. Their policy will be to admit EU citizens quite freely, and to prevent them from settling through the use of in-country controls - you'll need to demonstrate your migration status to take a job, rent accommodation, enroll your kids in school, register with a GP practice, that kind of thing.

This isn't a new thing. There are about 50 (non-EU) countries whose citizens already have visa-free access to the UK, and in-country controls are in use right now to prevent them from settling.

Entering the UK across the RoI/NI border will (as now) be perfectly legitimate, and won't be an effective way of circumventing those in-country controls.

10000maniacs · 01-08-2019 10:34AM

declanflynn wrote: »

A hard Brexit will solve the uk immigration problem from November they will have almost no trade deals with anyone will be swamped will cheap **** food and goods from all over the world go into a deep recession, my only worry about a hard Brexit is how do stop British economic immigrants coming over here and into the eu

If they have an Irish passport they would be entitled to live here. If they don't have a passport and have UK citizenship they would have to make their move pretty soon before the UK leaves the EU. If they don't have UK citizenship they could attempt to come into the Republic via Northern Ireland, but if caught, they would be immediately deported back to the UK as they wouldn't be classed as refugees. Is that how it works?

Peregrinus · 01-08-2019 10:39AM

10000maniacs wrote: »

If they have an Irish passport they would be entitled to live here. If they don't have a passport and have UK citizenship they would have to make their move pretty soon before the UK leaves the EU. If they don't have UK citizenship they could attempt to come into the Republic via Northern Ireland, but if caught, they would be immediately deported back to the UK as they wouldn't be classed as refugees. Is that how it works?

Nope. UK citizens have always had a right to enter and settle in Ireland (and vice versa). This predates the EU membership of both countries and will survive Brexit. Irish passport or no, any UK citizen who finds post-Brexit UK uncongenial will be able to come to and settle in Ireland freely and legitimately.

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 10:42AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

UK citizens don't need Irish passports to move to Ireland.

I’m aware. Based on seeing a lot of British saying they are going to move it it all goes south with a no deal.

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 10:44AM

I know the CTA has been cemented by us and the British recently no matter what happens, could this change under Boris if it gets really messy down the line?

Valhallapt · 01-08-2019 10:48AM

My personal preference is Ireland leaves the CTA and joins Schengen. Up until now this would have been impossible because of NI, but if we’re heading toward a hard Brexit / harder border and the polls are moving toward a UI maybe having to show passports at the border will encourage those on the fence about a UI to come to the warm embrace of Schengen...

Peregrinus · 01-08-2019 10:53AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I know the CTA has been cemented by us and the British recently no matter what happens, could this change under Boris if it gets really messy down the line?

Well, it could change under anybody. The CTA continues only for so long as both governments want it to; either of them can terminate it unilaterally.

Peregrinus · 01-08-2019 10:55AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

My personal preference is Ireland leaves the CTA and joins Schengen. Up until now this would have been impossible because of NI, but if we’re heading toward a hard Brexit / harder border and the polls are moving toward a UI maybe having to show passports at the border will encourage those on the fence about a UI to come to the warm embrace of Schengen...

Nope. The hard border that will result from a no-deal Brexit will affect the mvoement of goods, not people. It will not be a migration border and nobody will have to show passports going in either direction. However if Ireland joins Schengen, then it will become a migration border with passport controls. And, since we don't want to be responsible for that, we will never join Schengen (unless the UK does, which at the present moment seems a fairly remote possiblity).

lawred2 · 01-08-2019 10:56AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

UK citizens don't need Irish passports to move to Ireland.

Clearly it is for EU citizenship entitlements

lawred2 · 01-08-2019 10:57AM

ZeroThreat wrote: »

Not to mention the (what is it - nearly 1 million?) Irish born people living in the UK, we many have a problem trying to prevent the return of many of these.

And they are welcome to come home... for too long Ireland has been held back by population bleed

ilovesmybrick · 01-08-2019 11:01AM

The Atlantic has an interesting article today on why Brexit could lead Scotland to leave the UK.

Why Leaving the EU Could Mean Britain Loses Scotland

Pretty much outlines the broad strokes of Scotlands attitudes towards the EU, and how a combination of Thatchers deindustrialisation in the eighties and EU structural funds really boosted both EU support and support for Scottish independence.

Valhallapt · 01-08-2019 11:04AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nope. The hard border that will result from a no-deal Brexit will affect the mvoement of goods, not people. It will not be a migration border and nobody will have to show passports going in either direction. However if Ireland joins Schengen, then it will become a migration border with passport controls. And, since we don't want to be responsible for that, we will never join Schengen (unless the UK does, which at the present moment seems a fairly remote possiblity).

I’m playing devils advocate here, but why don’t we want to be responsible for that??

If we forgot completely about NI then ROI would be much better server by being in Schengen.

So if we said we were leaving the CTA what effect would that have on the NI population, would it make them more or less inclined to join a UI?

To answer my own question I would imaging the unionists would want to strengthen the CTA if a UI was on the table. It would also dislocate many nationalists. But after a UI were to come about we should have a serious think about Schengen vs CTA

declanflynn · 01-08-2019 11:10AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

10000maniacs wrote: »

If they have an Irish passport they would be entitled to live here. If they don't have a passport and have UK citizenship they would have to make their move pretty soon before the UK leaves the EU. If they don't have UK citizenship they could attempt to come into the Republic via Northern Ireland, but if caught, they would be immediately deported back to the UK as they wouldn't be classed as refugees. Is that how it works?

Nope. UK citizens have always had a right to enter and settle in Ireland (and vice versa). This predates the EU membership of both countries and will survive Brexit. Irish passport or no, any UK citizen who finds post-Brexit UK uncongenial will be able to come to and settle in Ireland freely and legitimately.

So the vote leave brigade are correct Ireland is doomed in the event of a no deal brexit = we will be flooded with refugees from Britain we could make the wear some sort of mark or badge to deferenciate them from us I wonder would they be able to pick fruit or foot turf or would we have to let them do simpler jobs

Imreoir2 · 01-08-2019 11:18AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

I’m playing devils advocate here, but why don’t we want to be responsible for that??

If we forgot completely about NI then ROI would be much better server by being in Schengen.

So if we said we were leaving the CTA what effect would that have on the NI population, would it make them more or less inclined to join a UI?

To answer my own question I would imaging the unionists would want to strengthen the CTA if a UI was on the table. It would also dislocate many nationalists. But after a UI were to come about we should have a serious think about Schengen vs CTA

It would be a clear-cut breach of our obligations under the GFA. We can hardily insist that the UK adopt the necessary measures to keep the border open and then turn around and adopt a policy ourselves which makes the border much harder than needs be.

Bit cynical · 01-08-2019 11:32AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I know the CTA has been cemented by us and the British recently no matter what happens, could this change under Boris if it gets really messy down the line?

It could always change as it is not a formal agreement between the two countries. However it is not really in the interest of either country, particularly in the light of Brexit, to drop the CTA.

Valhallapt · 01-08-2019 11:34AM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It would be a clear-cut breach of our obligations under the GFA. We can hardily insist that the UK adopt the necessary measures to keep the border open and then turn around and adopt a policy ourselves which makes the border much harder than needs be.

In the event of a border poll and a UI does the GFA continue to exist?

Bit cynical · 01-08-2019 11:37AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

In the event of a border poll and a UI does the GFA continue to exist?

It covers the whole of Ireland and the UK so by default it continues to exist in the event of a border poll.

LeinsterDub · 01-08-2019 11:44AM

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1156874248851460096

It's never been about the backstop for these people . That is just a handy hook to hang their hats on. They want no deal

Imreoir2 · 01-08-2019 11:49AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

In the event of a border poll and a UI does the GFA continue to exist?

In the event of a UI, there is no land border to harden. Joining Schengen before a UI happens would be a breach of the GFA.

After a UI the GFA would most likely have to be replaced by a successor agreement, though this is not spelled out in the GFA itself. It is likely that there would be a new agreement between Ireland and Britain setting out the new relationship and allowing for the contiuation of some of the provissions of the GFA like continued access to dual citizenship in NI and the continuation of the GFA institutions like the British/Irish Council and possibly a devolution settlement for NI within the Irish state.

Stop moaning ffs · 01-08-2019 12:02PM

I only found out today that if we have a UI ref, we have to have one every seven years?
Is that if it doesn’t pass we try again in 7 years? Or if it does pass we have one every 7 years?
Or both? Really confused on this anyone know for sure?

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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