Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus · 30-07-2019 10:08AM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'm not really a "supporter" of any one party, but I did have hopes for Leo. In reality he has been completely ineffectual on everything other than Brexit. My problem is I don't see anyone standing out as a real contender to do anything better.

In the times that are in it, being effectual on Brexit is really, really important. However disappointing Varadkar may be on other matters, he has been solid on this. I still maintain that throughout the Brexit episode Ireland has enjoyed conspicuously better political leadership than the UK (and this would still have been true had the opposition taken power in either or both countries).

BobbyBobberson · 30-07-2019 10:10AM

Igotadose wrote: »

Leo led FG and the government when the Eighth was repealed. That made him more effective than any of his predecessors. He's been hyper-focused on Brexit, which to me was the right priority call.

I dont like FG but Leo and Coveney doing a decent job on Brexit. They are placing themselves on the right side of history. Standing by the GFA and remaining close to the EU rather than the UK (a mentality some brexiteers didn't expect). Sturgeon doing the same with yesterday's briefings, giving brexiteers enough rope.

FreudianSlippers · 30-07-2019 10:10AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

In the times that are in it, being effectual on Brexit is really, really important. However disappointing Varadkar may be on other matters, he has been solid on this. I still maintain that throughout the Brexit episode Ireland has enjoyed conspicuously better political leadership than the UK (and this would still have been true had the opposition taken power in either or both countries).

I agree - in fact I initially had written that if he manages to pull off Brexit well, I'd see him sticking around for a while... but decided against making a call like that :pac:

FrancieBrady · 30-07-2019 10:14AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

In the times that are in it, being effectual on Brexit is really, really important. However disappointing Varadkar may be on other matters, he has been solid on this. I still maintain that throughout the Brexit episode Ireland has enjoyed conspicuously better political leadership than the UK (and this would still have been true had the opposition taken power in either or both countries).

In fairness, it shouldn't be that difficult a job. Hold to the agreed EU line on the WA and backstop.

FF taking advantage in the form of Dooley is disgraceful tbh.

VinLieger · 30-07-2019 10:15AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

In fairness, it shouldn't be that difficult a job. Hold to the agreed EU line on the WA and backstop.

FF taking advantage in the form of Dooley is disgraceful tbh.

There was another FFer out spouting their cluelessness yesterday, Martin needs to crack the proverbial whip

Fionn1952 · 30-07-2019 10:16AM

Igotadose wrote: »

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'm not really a "supporter" of any one party, but I did have hopes for Leo. In reality he has been completely ineffectual on everything other than Brexit. My problem is I don't see anyone standing out as a real contender to do anything better.

Leo led FG and the government when the Eighth was repealed. That made him more effective than any of his predecessors. He's been hyper-focused on Brexit, which to me was the right priority call.

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Personally, I have very little time for FG, but if any party was to make a move against them at this time, they'd ensure they'll never receive a vote from me for as long as I live. As Britain is wonderfully demonstrating right now, putting party above country isn't a very effective strategy during trying times.

I'm not really a "supporter" of any one party, but I did have hopes for Leo. In reality he has been completely ineffectual on everything other than Brexit. My problem is I don't see anyone standing out as a real contender to do anything better.

I would've been on the other end of things, had little faith and expectations of Leo, but been quietly impressed so far. I'm also in his local constituency, and had reason to speak with him about a personal issue, during which I found him incredibly helpful. Had to acknowledge it through gritted teeth when discussing with friends/family, but he has gone up in my estimation recently.

Peregrinus · 30-07-2019 10:19AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

In fairness, it shouldn't be that difficult a job. Hold to the agreed EU line on the WA and backstop.

I think we have to start by recognising that Irish diplomatic efforts played a large role in ensuring that that is the EU line in the first place. You could argue that Charlie Flanagan and Simon Coveney were the Ministers immediately responsible, but think both of the taoisigh involved are also deserving of credit.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FF taking advantage in the form of Dooley is disgraceful tbh.

Disgraceful, certainly. Don't know whether this is FF, or Dooley on a solo run doing a bit of grandstanding. If the latter, Martin should give him a good clip around the ear, but it's possible that will be done privately.

Water John · 30-07-2019 10:19AM

Game Theory is incorrect. Johnson is aiming to fail to get No Deal through HOC. Probably won't even take it to a vote and call a GE. That is the Plan, the only Plan. The rest is only smokescreen and blame game.

Sam Russell · 30-07-2019 10:23AM

Water John wrote: »

Game Theory is incorrect. Johnson is aiming to fail to get No Deal through HOC. Probably won't even take it to a vote and call a GE. That is the Plan, the only Plan. The rest is only smokescreen and blame game.

He cannot call a GE without the approval of two thirds of the HoC.

Of course, if Labour sniff a win, they will go for it, but that would be risky and a folly. Better to keep Johnson in place and let him flounder.

beggars_bush · 30-07-2019 10:23AM

Irish politicians haven't really had to do anything during Brexit except turn up to EU meetings an emphasise the GFA and Irish Border

the EU were doing all the negotiating.

BobbyBobberson · 30-07-2019 10:25AM

The more Leo and Coveney hold the line, the more they look stable. The only thing that has happened since they held their line is the Brexiteers have become more and more rabid. Even more recent events show this. They have a PM that refuses to ring the Irish leader? Bizarre.

MrMusician18 · 30-07-2019 10:25AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

He cannot call a GE without the approval of two thirds of the HoC.

Of course, if Labour sniff a win, they will go for it, but that would be risky and a folly. Better to keep Johnson in place and let him flounder.

An election is automatic afaik if the 14 days allowed to attempt to build an alternate fails.

BobbyBobberson · 30-07-2019 10:26AM

beggars_bush wrote: »

Irish politicians haven't really had to do anything during Brexit except turn up to EU meetings an emphasise the GFA and Irish Border

the EU were doing all the negotiating.

They have managed to stay on message, something the new government in the UK managed to break after a couple of days. Boris and Gove contradicting themselves on No Deal.

Peregrinus · 30-07-2019 10:27AM

beggars_bush wrote: »

Irish politicians haven't really had to do anything during Brexit except turn up to EU meetings an emphasise the GFA and Irish Border

the EU were doing all the negotiating.

They've had to ensure that, when doing the negotiationg, the EU put the issue of avoiding a hard border in Ireland front and centre.

Remember, if the EU's only concern were to protect the integrity of the Single Market, erecting a hard border in Ireland would be a no-brainer. The EU's steadfast opposition to a hard border, and their prioritising of that as a first-order issue that the UK must deal with before virtually all else, is almost entirely down to the efforts of Irish officials and politicians.

FrancieBrady · 30-07-2019 10:28AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think we have to start by recognising that Irish diplomatic efforts played a large role in ensuring that that is the EU line in the first place. You could argue that Charlie Flanagan and Simon Coveney were the Ministers immediately responsible, but think both of the taoisigh involved are also deserving of credit.

IMO they had a captive and already convinced audience in Europe. The SM had to be protected and it was a no brainer to pursue the strategy they did.
Remember too that when Enda was Taoiseach, he ruled out looking for Special Status for NI.

Disgraceful, certainly. Don't know whether this is FF, or Dooley on a solo run doing a bit of grandstanding. If the latter, Martin should give him a good clip around the ear, but it's possible that will be done privately.

He seems to be getting it well and truly clipped on the Tweet machine. If FF don't see the writing on the wall, they'll pay for it later.

Christy42 · 30-07-2019 10:30AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Meanwhile, Raab tweeted (and quickly deleted) that they would get a good deal for all regions of England, including Scotland.

This wasn't well received in Scotland.

It is like a parody sketch.

Raab has denied the tweet was his and said it was a fake (though it had the verified check so I wonder if that has been compromised).

Not sure how to go about confirming it but at least one paper (daily record, no idea what it is like but could not find the story elsewhere) mentioned he was in transit when it was meant to have been sent.

I would say it got a good few retweets. Wonder how many were agreeing with it...

J Mysterio · 30-07-2019 10:31AM

One of the benefits of t'internet is that it is a record. As the Brexiteers are now insisting NDB was always on the cards, Google search terms can show that NDB was really only first searched for in mid 2018.

https://twitter.com/mikebutcher/status/1155830876963528706

Headshot · 30-07-2019 10:33AM

Christy42 wrote: »

Raab has denied the tweet was his and said it was a fake (though it had the verified check so I wonder if that has been compromised).

Not sure how to go about confirming it but at least one paper (daily record, no idea what it is like but could not find the story elsewhere) mentioned he was in transit when it was meant to have been sent.

I would say it got a good few retweets. Wonder how many were agreeing with it...

Another quote for the SNP bus

VinLieger · 30-07-2019 10:34AM

Christy42 wrote: »

Raab has denied the tweet was his and said it was a fake (though it had the verified check so I wonder if that has been compromised).

Not sure how to go about confirming it but at least one paper (daily record, no idea what it is like but could not find the story elsewhere) mentioned he was in transit when it was meant to have been sent.

I would say it got a good few retweets. Wonder how many were agreeing with it...

He also still called Scotland a region of the United Kingdom during an interview though so he cant exactly claim that was faked too.

Many Scots rightfully a bit pisses at their Country being refereed to as a region but it does give insight into this cabinets mindset

woejus · 30-07-2019 10:38AM

lawred2 wrote: »

paywalled

https://www.newscabal.co.uk/brexit-has-become-the-enemy-of-the-uk-union/

VinLieger · 30-07-2019 10:59AM

Good to see Fianna Fail being torn to shreds on twitter for Dooleys comments

Enzokk · 30-07-2019 10:59AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

He cannot call a GE without the approval of two thirds of the HoC.

Of course, if Labour sniff a win, they will go for it, but that would be risky and a folly. Better to keep Johnson in place and let him flounder.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

An election is automatic afaik if the 14 days allowed to attempt to build an alternate fails.

You are both right and discussing the only 2 ways an election can happen outside of the time specified in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. If the house votes by 2/3rds majority it could happen if Johnson requests it.

I don't think this will happen and he will try to force a vote of no-confidence by forcing no-deal and having some of hos own MPs vote against the government. This would mean then there is 14 days for another party to try and reach consensus in the house to form a government. If this fails then a general election will happen. This is risky for the UK as it will take time for all of this to play out and if Corbyn takes too long to act the UK could fall out of the EU without a deal while they are in preparation for the election.

This would in some crazy way suit both Corbyn and Johnson as Corbyn will not have Brexit to deal with and can create his socialist utopia and Johnson would have kept his promise of leaving the EU. The Brexit Party would be stunted as they are a one issue party at the same time.

The downside is for the 95% of people not ready for Brexit, but its not like they are supposed to look out for them.

fash · 30-07-2019 11:03AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Meanwhile, Raab tweeted (and quickly deleted) that they would get a good deal for all regions of England, including Scotland.

This wasn't well received in Scotland.

It is like a parody sketch.

he's a details guy. "I hadn't realised that the UK is an island... I hadn't realised that Scotland is a country..."

lawred2 · 30-07-2019 11:07AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Good to see Fianna Fail being torn to shreds on twitter for Dooleys comments

I missed Dimmy Tooley's comments... can you share a link to the twitter thread?

edit... https://twitter.com/timmydooley/status/1156099441197273088

pedrozeno · 30-07-2019 11:08AM

lawred2 wrote: »

I missed Dimmy Tooley's comments... can you share a link to the twitter thread?

https://twitter.com/timmydooley/status/1156099441197273088?s=21

lawred2 · 30-07-2019 11:14AM

What an absolutely ridiculous intervention. I'm surprised FF head office haven't been in touch to tell him to delete that tweet.

FFers ultimately will never change their spots.

This is the type of tweet in support of Timmy's 'position'

https://twitter.com/NigelFinlay5/status/1156142720655724545

J Mysterio · 30-07-2019 11:15AM

He is rightly getting pilloried on Twitter for that tweet. Massively stupid.

quokula · 30-07-2019 11:44AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

One of the benefits of t'internet is that it is a record. As the Brexiteers are now insisting NDB was always on the cards, Google search terms can show that NDB was really only first searched for in mid 2018.

https://twitter.com/mikebutcher/status/1155830876963528706

In fairness that graph doesn't mean much because the terminology "no deal Brexit" didn't really exist. It's become a shorthand for not ratifying the withdrawal agreement.

That's not to say that the voters were in favour of no deal at the time. Those sorts of details were just not even considered.

lawred2 · 30-07-2019 11:47AM

quokula wrote: »

In fairness that graph doesn't mean much because the terminology "no deal Brexit" didn't really exist. It's become a shorthand for not ratifying the withdrawal agreement.

That's not to say that the voters were in favour of no deal at the time. Those sorts of details were just not even considered.

I think you're wrong there. No-one voted Britain to leave the EU without any arrangements whatsoever.

In fact they were given tale after tale of "not leaving the single market" - "easiest trade deals" etc etc

The spin now is that No Deal Brexit was the will of the people and Boris et al have a mandate for it. They patently do not.

Dytalus · 30-07-2019 11:54AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

He is rightly getting pilloried on Twitter for that tweet. Massively stupid.

He's so widely getting called out for it that "Timmy" is the top trending item for Ireland on Twitter.

Methinks he's going to be called into the head office at some point.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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