Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs · 30-07-2019 08:41AM

Heard on the radio that any country working under WTO terms has to erect a border?

Anyone know if that’s true?

kuro68k · 30-07-2019 08:41AM

Boris is just building up to blame the EU for everything, that's apparently his plan. Crash out, try to blame someone else, bluster his way through it.

KildareP · 30-07-2019 08:43AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Heard on the radio that any country working under WTO terms has to erect a border?

Anyone know if that’s true?

Understanding is that is not strictly true:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wto-says-its-rules-would-not-force-eu-or-uk-to-erect-hard-irish-border-1.3710136

“There is nothing in WTO rules that forces anyone to put up border posts,” said WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell on a visit to Dublin last week.
“Someone has to bring a complaint and say that their interests have been hurt.”

Essentially WTO won't on its own make you erect a border.
However a WTO member can bring a complaint against another member that their interests are being hurt due to the absence of said border.

I could see the EU invoking such a complaint on November 1st in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Christy42 · 30-07-2019 08:44AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Heard on the radio that any country working under WTO terms has to erect a border?

Anyone know if that’s true?

They have to offer the same rates to everyone they don't have a deal with. So no deal with the EU means they have to offer everyone whatever import tax they charge at the border.

Theoretically they could have no border and no taxes but that would kill them.

Stop moaning ffs · 30-07-2019 08:46AM

Cool thanks lads.

johnnyskeleton · 30-07-2019 08:58AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I can't quite believe what I am reading here.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1155882827927425024

This is mad how we are casually being mentioned as a potential victim here.

There are lots of died in the wool leave voters who shout about how they dont care about the economy taking a dive so long as they leave. I suspect that they are lying/posturing.

By contrast, no one in Ireland makes much waves about how we would rather be poorer than risk the peace and cooperation with Northern Ireland, but I dont doubt for a second that its true.

So its amazing that the people who talk a hard line in the UK fail to even consider whether Ireland would take a hard line or not. We've consistently taken a firm stance all along, and if the overt strategy is to make Ireland break at the hands of the British, it will become even more a matter of pride.

I think we are possinly headed back to the 1930s trade war style politics, only now we have a much more diversified trading strategy and we are economic allies with a much more powerful force than the UK.

Even though I think there is merit in exploring all options and solutions, at this stage I think we should embrace the fact that no deal is happening and set national strategy to minimise the damage to us while maximising the damage to Britain. Its not going to be easy

ath262 · 30-07-2019 09:01AM

Editorial in the Financial Times - Brexit has become the enemy of the UK union :

"Boris Johnson’s ‘do or die’ strategy is gambling with Britain’s future...The prime minister’s twin ambitions are on a dangerous collision course. Brexit in any shape promises to weaken the bonds between the nations of the British Isles. I......"

johnnyskeleton · 30-07-2019 09:08AM

KildareP wrote: »

And now the following studio panel discussion, including presenter, are talking about the French, the Germans, Varadkar's approval rating has plummeted, No Deal will decimate Ireland, the EU will cave, in the EU interests to have a deal so they will do one.

Jesus wept, "we are where we are", should instead be "we are where we were" three years ago!

Maybe Leo should call an election for 1st November and claim to be powerless to change policy until the new Dail is elected

Peregrinus · 30-07-2019 09:11AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Heard on the radio that any country working under WTO terms has to erect a border?

Anyone know if that’s true?

WTO rules don't explicitly require a border. They don't mention borders at all.

It's just that most countries use border controls as the mechanism by which they comply with WTO rules. It's hard, frankly, to see how any country can comply with WTO rule unless they operate border controls, absent an agreement providing for very deep trade and fiscal integration, like the Single Market/Customs Union.

UK may get away without operating border controls for some time, simply because in the chaos and confusion of a no-deal Brexit it may take some time for injured nations to lodge a complaint, plus it may take some time for that complaint to come to hearing and a ruling to be made. But this wouldn't mean that UK wouldn't be in breach of WTO rules; more that it could probably get away for quite a while with flouting WTO rules.

Stop moaning ffs · 30-07-2019 09:11AM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Maybe Leo should call an election for 1st November and claim to be powerless to change policy until the new Dail is elected

He may not have a choice. The Bailey situation becomes more septic by the day.

johnnyskeleton · 30-07-2019 09:11AM

KildareP wrote: »

Understanding is that is not strictly true:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/wto-says-its-rules-would-not-force-eu-or-uk-to-erect-hard-irish-border-1.3710136

Essentially WTO won't on its own make you erect a border.
However a WTO member can bring a complaint against another member that their interests are being hurt due to the absence of said border.

I could see the EU invoking such a complaint on November 1st in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

Europe dont want the UK to put up a border on their side, but they do want Ireland to control its border with the UK. Europe would do very well out of a situation whereby goods coming from the UK into Europe are checked and tarriffed, but goods going the other way are not. And since a significant brexiteer platform is to put lots of tarrifs down to zero in the event of no deal, the EU (just like Canada) would have no incentive to reduce their tarrifs to the UK or enter a FTA

VinLieger · 30-07-2019 09:18AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He may not have a choice. The Bailey situation becomes more septic by the day.

Good god imagine if that self centered bint ends up being responsible for screwing up brexit for the whole country

Tell me how · 30-07-2019 09:26AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Good god imagine if that self centered bint ends up being responsible for screwing up brexit for the whole country

It's off topic but if anyone thinks a GE is warranted over the Bailey incident they are as delusional and self serving as hard Brexiteers.

Seth Brundle · 30-07-2019 09:27AM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Maybe Leo should call an election for 1st November and claim to be powerless to change policy until the new Dail is elected

Most people believe that the Irish position is the correct one and for this reason the other parties are staying quiet about it.
Leo doesn't need to start discussing policy change.
Anyhow, any policy change in terms of a border will be dictated by the EU not Ireland.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

He may not have a choice. The Bailey situation becomes more septic by the day.

Whilst Bailey has dug a massive hole for herself, it's not one which will affect the brexit position by Ireland.
Anyhow, I doubt most people are that incensed about it, only those with a political interest. (that being said, I think she should be sacked by her party for attempted fraud and she could take her solicitor friend with her!)

ambro25 · 30-07-2019 09:29AM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

There are lots of died in the wool leave voters who shout about how they dont care about the economy taking a dive so long as they leave. I suspect that they are lying/posturing.

(...)

So its amazing that the people who talk a hard line in the UK fail to even consider whether Ireland would take a hard line or not. We've consistently taken a firm stance all along, and if the overt strategy is to make Ireland break at the hands of the British, it will become even more a matter of pride.

(...)

British Gammons may soften, after they realise that the world's entire supply of viagra is manufactured in Ireland

:pac:

Professor Moriarty · 30-07-2019 09:34AM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

There are lots of died in the wool leave voters who shout about how they dont care about the economy taking a dive so long as they leave. I suspect that they are lying/posturing.

By contrast, no one in Ireland makes much waves about how we would rather be poorer than risk the peace and cooperation with Northern Ireland, but I dont doubt for a second that its true.

So its amazing that the people who talk a hard line in the UK fail to even consider whether Ireland would take a hard line or not. We've consistently taken a firm stance all along, and if the overt strategy is to make Ireland break at the hands of the British, it will become even more a matter of pride.

I think we are possinly headed back to the 1930s trade war style politics, only now we have a much more diversified trading strategy and we are economic allies with a much more powerful force than the UK.

Even though I think there is merit in exploring all options and solutions, at this stage I think we should embrace the fact that no deal is happening and set national strategy to minimise the damage to us while maximising the damage to Britain. Its not going to be easy

Minimising damage to Ireland is obviously in our interests. However, maximising damage to Britain is not. We should maximise and exploit any political and economic opportunities that arise from the self-inflicted damage from No Deal.

First Up · 30-07-2019 09:39AM

johnnyskeleton wrote:

There are lots of died in the wool leave voters who shout about how they dont care about the economy taking a dive so long as they leave.

Its dyed in the wool but as typos go, it has a certain resonance!

Charles Babbage · 30-07-2019 09:40AM

Meanwhile, Raab tweeted (and quickly deleted) that they would get a good deal for all regions of England, including Scotland.

This wasn't well received in Scotland.

It is like a parody sketch.

Headshot · 30-07-2019 09:46AM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Meanwhile, Raab tweeted (and quickly deleted) that they would get a good deal for all regions of England, including Scotland.

This wasn't well received in Scotland.

It is like a parody sketch.

This just adds to the large list of why Raab is such a laughable appointment in Boris's cabinet

Imagine this man is in charge of dealing with the Iran issues......

lawred2 · 30-07-2019 09:50AM

ath262 wrote: »

Editorial in the Financial Times - Brexit has become the enemy of the UK union :

"Boris Johnson’s ‘do or die’ strategy is gambling with Britain’s future...The prime minister’s twin ambitions are on a dangerous collision course. Brexit in any shape promises to weaken the bonds between the nations of the British Isles. I......"

paywalled

Sam Russell · 30-07-2019 09:50AM

The whole border issue would be solved by the closing of the two ports (Larne and Belfast) for imports from the UK. Those imports would go via Dublin and be inspected along with all the other imports from the UK. I suspect most imports already go through Dublin anyway.

Will the checks at Larne for agri-products continue after a hard Brexit?

If we are forced, by the UK decision to go 'No Deal', to put up a border, that border will disappear when the UK sees sense and does a deal (which will be identical to the WA) but will never disappear if we allow the backstop to disappear.

MrMusician18 · 30-07-2019 09:50AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Good god imagine if that self centered bint ends up being responsible for screwing up brexit for the whole country

The government won't collapse over Bailey. The government survives because FF abstain. I don't think even FF are that selfish that they would collapse the government in the midst of a national emergency.

They'd vote with the government, or get labour support. This would be on the condition that an election would take place as soon as the immediate danger to the country had passed.

BobbyBobberson · 30-07-2019 09:53AM

Headshot wrote: »

This just adds to the large list of why Raab is such a laughable appointment in Boris's cabinet

Imagine this man is in charge of dealing with the Iran issues......

Its only one side of the story but in that docu the other night, Barnier tells the committee how Raab said the EU would be to blame for a hard border. According to Barnier he went through for a shortcut and Raab soon backed down saying that's not what he meant. As I said, only one side of the story but there you go.

This last comment sums his persona up. I want to rip my skin off everytime I see this

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1022512148839157760

Fionn1952 · 30-07-2019 09:54AM

Personally, I have very little time for FG, but if any party was to make a move against them at this time, they'd ensure they'll never receive a vote from me for as long as I live. As Britain is wonderfully demonstrating right now, putting party above country isn't a very effective strategy during trying times.

FrancieBrady · 30-07-2019 09:55AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The government won't collapse over Bailey. The government survives because FF abstain. I don't think even FF are that selfish that they would collapse the government in the midst of a national emergency.

They'd vote with the government, or get labour support. This would be on the condition that an election would take place as soon as the immediate danger to the country had passed.

Isn't it a shame Bailey wouldn't pull on the green shirt (without hurting herself) and realise the inevitable? She's toast.

I think we need to present a united front for the next while. I'd be expecting all sorts of spook work to be going on.

FreudianSlippers · 30-07-2019 09:55AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The government won't collapse over Bailey. The government survives because FF abstain. I don't think even FF are that selfish that they would collapse the government in the midst of a national emergency.

They'd vote with the government, or get labour support. This would be on the condition that an election would take place as soon as the immediate danger to the country had passed.

I don't think any party wants an election until Brexit is "sorted". I think that's why you see the media and certain people on here attempt to keep the Bailey story going - FF seems to stick to the traditional media whilst SF keeps it stoked on boards.ie/thejournal.ie ... if they can keep this simmering away in the court of public opinion until Brexit is locked-down, then they can really attach FG and Leo in particular over it. Smart really until the next thing comes along.

MrMusician18 · 30-07-2019 09:57AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This clown.

https://twitter.com/timmydooley/status/1156099441197273088?s=21

I stand corrected. Hmm...

Leadership might have a tougher time herding the cats than I thought. While there's a greater good/national interest to be stood up for, some won't be able to resist sticking the boot in the government to point score.

The smarter strategists in the party hqs I would think wouldn't condone this as this won't play well with the electorate.

careless sherpa · 30-07-2019 09:58AM

SNIP. No insults please.

FreudianSlippers · 30-07-2019 10:02AM

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Personally, I have very little time for FG, but if any party was to make a move against them at this time, they'd ensure they'll never receive a vote from me for as long as I live. As Britain is wonderfully demonstrating right now, putting party above country isn't a very effective strategy during trying times.

I'm not really a "supporter" of any one party, but I did have hopes for Leo. In reality he has been completely ineffectual on everything other than Brexit. My problem is I don't see anyone standing out as a real contender to do anything better.

Igotadose · 30-07-2019 10:05AM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

I'm not really a "supporter" of any one party, but I did have hopes for Leo. In reality he has been completely ineffectual on everything other than Brexit. My problem is I don't see anyone standing out as a real contender to do anything better.

Leo led FG and the government when the Eighth was repealed. That made him more effective than any of his predecessors. He's been hyper-focused on Brexit, which to me was the right priority call.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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