Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

InTheShadows · 29-07-2019 03:40PM

road_high wrote: »

I can see an election being an even more hard Brexit outcome and nothing else. Too many of them want to leave (and of course keep all
benefits) so so be it

This is a very important point. I don't think people here really understand the strength of feeling in the UK over getting on with leaving. It's one the reasons the 2nd referendum mantra has fallen out of the headlines as the leave vote would more than likely come out stronger again.

The UK needs to leave hard or soft by the end of October that's the bottom line. No general election, no nonsense "people's vote" just leave.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-07-2019 03:43PM

The interest of the member state comes first according to the Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1155749912988016641

Professor Moriarty · 29-07-2019 03:44PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

They have been given 3 separate occassions to democratically make their voices heard. They have failed. They voted for BRexit, they voted for parties that promised to deliver Brexit and they voted in the BP in the recent EU elections based on Hard Brexit.

At least the 37% that bothered to turn up to vote did.

So whilst they may well be plenty of people opposed to it, they simply are not that worried about to actually do anything about it in large enough numbers to make a difference.

The polls have a bounce for the Tories since Johnson became leader!

But polls are showing that if Labour dumped Corbyn, it would be a dead cat bounce.

Lemming · 29-07-2019 03:45PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There will be a deal with the US, I think I recall seeing that Australia were ready for a deal as soon as the UK exits.

I am four pages behind, so apologies if this has already been addressed, but I seem to recall from sometime ago that the Australians said that they would wait to see what shape any UK/EU trade arrangements took before considering entering into any notional uture trade deals. A sentiment that I recall generally being echoed by other nations too.

road_high · 29-07-2019 03:46PM

listermint wrote: »

I dont think anyone is thinking otherwise, But until that same population get a hold on what their government is doing. External parties can do nothing.

The long and short of it is that there is a narrative going around that the EU is holding them in. In fact they could leave tomorrow. The EU needs to start countering that narrative and tell them they can leave tomorrow if they want.

We will then see what the will of the people is.............

Exactly- should clarify that immediately- so why wait until end October. Just go

Strazdas · 29-07-2019 03:48PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The interest of the member state comes first according to the Co-Chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations

https://twitter.com/carlbildt/status/1155749912988016641

Yes, the idea that the EU would throw an existing member state under the bus in favour of a departing one was always fanciful. Only a Brexiteer could believe that.

Mr.Wemmick · 29-07-2019 03:49PM

robinph wrote: »

Whilst I completely understand the need to just get on with it and tell the UK to go stuff themselves, please remember that the UK population are people too and most don't want any of this.

This. Also Boris will get carried away, if he's not doing so already, and will shoot himself in the foot with his nasty attacks on Ireland and the EU. He can't cherry pick what s***e he wants the public to swallow, and many are of Irish descent or Irish/EU. It just smacks of desperation because team Boris have no fresh ideas on how to deliver brexit and it is going to become very clear to everyone soon enough. His xenophobic sh!te is going to come back to bite him on the bum. May didn't stoop to this level.. he is some cretin.

And his odd ball team can not hide behind lies, blame and bluster for long and will start to show the strain and fail to stick to the Cummings script.

Sam Russell · 29-07-2019 03:55PM

lawred2 wrote: »

a one year high or one year low?

The Euro is at a one year high vs GBP. Sorry if I misled. May 5th 2019, the Euro was 85p, while today it is actually at a near 2 year high - Sep 14th 2017 it was higher than now. Now - 0.90846 GBP = €1, sept 11th 2017 it was 0.9108, a five year high when €1 would get GBP 0.9225p on 24th Aug 2017.

It looks like GBP is tanking already.

In just under 3 months, it has lost 9.5 % - that is some devaluation.

road_high · 29-07-2019 03:56PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, the idea that the EU would throw an existing member state under the bus in favour of a departing one was always fanciful. Only a Brexiteer could believe that.

But the British are so important don’t you know? Everyone will bend over backwards to accommodate them!

VinLieger · 29-07-2019 04:00PM

Sterling's just gone below 1.10 against the Euro that's now the lowest its been in 2 years

ancapailldorcha · 29-07-2019 04:01PM

robinph wrote: »

Whilst I completely understand the need to just get on with it and tell the UK to go stuff themselves, please remember that the UK population are people too and most don't want any of this.

Thank you. There are plenty of people here who are appalled by this. Then there are the Irish businesses who depend heavily on trade with the UK (Tony Connelly's Brexit & Ireland being an excellent read for anyone interested) and 3 million EU migrants along with plenty of British expats who didn't vote for Brexit.

The property owners, the Shire Tories, the bankers, middle classes et al will be fine. It's the working class who will pay the price. I think people deserve a chance to appraise the revelations of the last three years and to be asked if they are sure they wish to proceed. If so, on their heads be it.

Strazdas · 29-07-2019 04:02PM

road_high wrote: »

But the British are so important don’t you know? Everyone will bend over backwards to accommodate them!

The entire referendum campaign was built around this lie. Britain was so powerful that it could leave the EU and handpick a fantastic trading arrangement with them afterwards.....Johnson was one of the main figures pushing this line

Strazdas · 29-07-2019 04:05PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Thank you. There are plenty of people here who are appalled by this. Then there are the Irish businesses who depend heavily on trade with the UK (Tony Connelly's Brexit & Ireland being an excellent read for anyone interested) and 3 million EU migrants along with plenty of British expats who didn't vote for Brexit.

The property owners, the Shire Tories, the bankers, middle classes et al will be fine. It's the working class who will pay the price. I think people deserve a chance to appraise the revelations of the last three years and to be asked if they are sure they wish to proceed. If so, on their heads be it.

The problem is they are being lied to on an industrial scale by the Tories, the Brexit Party and the right wing press. We had Raab telling them this morning they voted for No Deal in 2016.

ancapailldorcha · 29-07-2019 04:08PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The problem is they are being lied to on an industrial scale by the Tories, the Brexit Party and the right wing press. We had Raab telling them this morning they voted for No Deal in 2016.

No disagreement there. Britain in Europe won the 1975 referendum and then disappeared back into the Tory party. The National Referendum Campaign morphed and evolved to keep pushing its arguments until 2016.

I think remain would win a People's Vote. I think Brexit has been shown up for the farce it is to most people at this stage. Plenty of people will still vote for Brexit but I think enough people who don't normally vote will use the chance to save their rights from being stolen.

Sam Russell · 29-07-2019 04:09PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The problem is they are being lied to on an industrial scale by the Tories, the Brexit Party and the right wing press. We had Raab telling them this morning they voted for No Deal in 2016.

This was the SoS for Brexit that did not know how close Dover was to Calais, and admitted that he had not read the 38 page Good Friday Agreement that required the backstop - you know, the backstop that was the sticking point in the Brexit negotiations.

I bet he never read the 585 page Withdrawal Agreement either.

He is just plain thick.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-07-2019 04:11PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Sterling's just gone below 1.10 against the Euro that's now the lowest its been in 2 years

Is the market finally giving it's verdict?

Could we see some major announcements in terms of relocations and job cuts in the next few weeks?

I'd be keeping an eye on the likes of Airbus for example...

road_high · 29-07-2019 04:11PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The entire referendum campaign was built around this lie. Britain was so powerful that it could leave the EU and handpick a fantastic trading arrangement with them afterwards.....Johnson was one of the main figures pushing this line

Well that’s their own lookout- the EU can’t be accountable for the dim witted nature of Brexit voters. The time is up now, sometimes in life you got to leave the hard way.

Nody · 29-07-2019 04:12PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, the idea that the EU would throw an existing member state under the bus in favour of a departing one was always fanciful. Only a Brexiteer could believe that.

Yet that has been a claim or expectations multiple times over the last two years; "Oh just wait as EU will throw Ireland under the bus to get a deal done". That and the fact they can't grasp why there is no reason for EU27 to throw Ireland under the buss appears to be lost on them.

ancapailldorcha · 29-07-2019 04:14PM

Nody wrote: »

Yet that has been a claim or expectations multiple times over the last two years; "Oh just wait as EU will throw Ireland under the bus to get a deal done". That and the fact they can't grasp why there is no reason for EU27 to throw Ireland under the buss appears to be lost on them.

It's not that there is no reason to throw Ireland under the bus. It's that the EU is mainly composed of small and middling states. If Ireland gets screwed over then the whole project is doomed. The EU is supposed to stand up for and protect its members. Abandoning Ireland kills the EU's raison d'être stone dead.

road_high · 29-07-2019 04:14PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No disagreement there. Britain in Europe won the 1975 referendum and then disappeared back into the Tory party. The National Referendum Campaign morphed and evolved to keep pushing its arguments until 2016.

I think remain would win a People's Vote. I think Brexit has been shown up for the farce it is to most people at this stage. Plenty of people will still vote for Brexit but I think enough people who don't normally vote will use the chance to save their rights from being stolen.

There’s been several elections in the UK- no big swing to remain evident whatsoever. In fact the opposite if the carry on of the EU elections is the latest example

ancapailldorcha · 29-07-2019 04:17PM

road_high wrote: »

There’s been several elections in the UK- no big swing to remain evident whatsoever. In fact the opposite if the carry on of the EU elections is the latest example

There's been one national since the referendum. Now that we see that a no deal Brexit is both likely and more calamitous than originally thought, I think that the electorate deserve another chance. If they vote for the Brexit Party or Johnson's Tories then that's it.

ambro25 · 29-07-2019 04:18PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

This. Also Boris will get carried away, if he's not doing so already, and will shoot himself in the foot with his nasty attacks on Ireland and the EU. He can't cherry pick what s***e he wants the public to swallow, and many are of Irish descent or Irish/EU. It just smacks of desperation because team Boris have no fresh ideas on how to deliver brexit and it is going to become very clear to everyone soon enough. His xenophobic sh!te is going to come back to bite him on the bum. May didn't stoop to this level.. he is some cretin.

And his odd ball team can not hide behind lies, blame and bluster for long and will start to show the strain and fail to stick to the Cummings script.

Respectfully, some of us queue-jumping citizens of nowhere have functioning memories.

Johnson may be a populist, and a racist one at that...but he didn't engineer the UK's 9 year-old "hostile environment" policies that endure and are bearing all their fruits nowadays.

She's done a lot of actual and measurable harm, in the xenophobia department.

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 04:18PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Thank you. There are plenty of people here who are appalled by this. Then there are the Irish businesses who depend heavily on trade with the UK (Tony Connelly's Brexit & Ireland being an excellent read for anyone interested) and 3 million EU migrants along with plenty of British expats who didn't vote for Brexit.

The property owners, the Shire Tories, the bankers, middle classes et al will be fine. It's the working class who will pay the price. I think people deserve a chance to appraise the revelations of the last three years and to be asked if they are sure they wish to proceed. If so, on their heads be it.

I fail to see how the middle class will be fine? they will be destroyed along with nearly everyone else.

Lackadaisical · 29-07-2019 04:19PM

Wow Sterling's taking a real hammering now €1.00 = 0.9112

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURGBP:CUR

For the sake of historical context. IEP = €1.2697, so in old money IEP 1.00 = GBP 1.16 (1.15695064)
Might give you a sense of how much it's slipped over the last few years.

road_high · 29-07-2019 04:21PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

There's been one national since the referendum. Now that we see that a no deal Brexit is both likely and more calamitous than originally thought, I think that the electorate deserve another chance. If they vote for the Brexit Party or Johnson's Tories then that's it.

They will do that- there’s a siege mentality this whole thing and BoJo wants to be Churchill the 2nd.

ambro25 · 29-07-2019 04:22PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is the market finally giving it's verdict?

Could we see some major announcements in terms of relocations and job cuts in the next few weeks?

I'd be keeping an eye on the likes of Airbus for example...

Makes me wonder about that too, and also whether the uncharacteristically-clear anti-Brexit message from PSA about the Ellesmere Vauxhall plant in today's FT is a proverbial first domino. Other manufacturers have been either silent about relocations/shut-downs, or invoking broader context/issues, anything-else-but-the-Brexit-elephant-in-the-room like, until now.

sink · 29-07-2019 04:23PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I am quite annoyed that the SINDO gives ammunition to people like this

https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1155755019846787072

I'll refrain from saying what I really think of that "newspaper".

I don't read the Independent so I'm not sure if Eoghan Harris has ever addressed what he thinks will happen if we drop the backstop.

We know exactly what the Brits want, that being a basic free trade agreement, with full regulatory autonomy and no ECJ oversight. That will definitely require a hard border.

So dropping the backstop immediately opens up discussion about what type of infrastructure will be required. That will be discussion on where to place designated import/export crossings points with customs declaration facilities. Sanitary & Phytosanitary inspection points (away from the border OFC). Cameras with NPR at all other unmanned crossings. There will also need to be roving customs agents doing random spot checks to catch smuggling.

So if that's what Eoghan Harris is advocating, fine he should be upfront about it. If he has swallowed the Brexiteers guff about technologic solutions that nobody can articulate he's a moron who is best ignored.

VinLieger · 29-07-2019 04:25PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Wow Sterling's taking a real hammering now €1.00 = 0.9112

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURGBP:CUR

For the sake of historical context. IEP = €1.2697, so in old money IR£ = GB£ 1.16 (1.15695064)

It is dropping fast the last 2 hours, we very likely will see it drop below its lowest rate in 5 years this week possibly even 10 if it continues like this

ancapailldorcha · 29-07-2019 04:27PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I fail to see how the middle class will be fine? they will be destroyed along with nearly everyone else.

Good point. I used to define middle class people as those who own homes, cars and go on a few luxury holidays a year. Those people will be fine. People just starting out with a mortgage or still paying for one will likely be in serious financial difficulty.

Lackadaisical · 29-07-2019 04:30PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Good point. I used to define middle class people as those who own homes, cars and go on a few luxury holidays a year. Those people will be fine. People just starting out with a mortgage or still paying for one will likely be in serious financial difficulty.

If Sterling collapses they won't be fine, as their spending power will be dramatically decreased. A lot of inflationary pressures seem to have been absorbed by retailers / supply chains burning out the fat in the system (the UK isn't particularly price sensitive as a consumer market, so tends to get charged more) but there's only so much of that can go on before you start to see steep price hikes.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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