Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Oafley Jones · 29-07-2019 12:14PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any deals done that quickly is unlikely to be favorable to the UK!

The UK may accept deals for the optics.

America didn't get to where it is on the back of friendly negotiation. There will be no room for sentiment when it comes to a trade agreement. Regardless of who's running the show, expect the UK to get absolutely rode.

Beechwoodspark · 29-07-2019 12:18PM

Oafley Jones wrote: »

America didn't get to where it is on the back of friendly negotiation. There will be no room for sentiment when it comes to a trade agreement. Regardless of who's running the show, expect the UK to get absolutely rode.

And all with a big smile and back slapping from Uncle Sam

ArmaniJeanss · 29-07-2019 12:20PM

The UK may get a somewhat better deal from the USA than we think.

If the USA is playing a long game then it would be in their interests to be fair and reasonable. It would cast a shadow on the existing narrative that being a member of the EU bloc helps European countries in their negotiations with the USA. Whether they are clever enough to play such a long game is a question though. Short-termism may override it.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-07-2019 12:21PM

I am quite annoyed that the SINDO gives ammunition to people like this

https://twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/1155755019846787072

I'll refrain from saying what I really think of that "newspaper".

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 12:21PM

lawred2 wrote: »

How much of this is a genuine concern for Ireland and NI and how much of this is internal US intra party politics with the purpose to frustrate the Trumpster and his love for Boris and the best trade deal ever?

I think a great deal of it is genuine concern for Ireland and the GFA.
Americans roots are of great importance to them. You regularly hear Americans say 'I'm Irish' or 'I'm Italian' or 'German' or 'Polish' or whatever. They see themselves that way, and why shouldn't they? They follow cultural events and holidays and other observances and eat their national food etc. All this Trump anti-immigration stuff is reasonably new, America is a country of immigrants.

The US were of great import in the GFA and it was considered to be a groundbreaking international agreement to find a solution for peace in NI. They won't want this to be unilaterally swatted to one side by the British having a fit and yearning for empire once more. Irish Americans are of great significance in American politics and society and have quite a spread of influence throughout. When they say they won't stand for it, they mean it, and thank god for that. Goes to show - again - that Irish diplomacy is huge. British diplomacy? Not so good.

reslfj · 29-07-2019 12:23PM

VinLieger wrote: »

I don't think so, the French opposed an extension to try and force No Deal, since they think it will bring the UK back to the table in a position of weakness if not desperation.

If or when it is believed that it will end in a 'No Deal' Brexit anyway - more EU27 members are beginning to think "Let's get it over with - sooner rather than later" and - IMHO rightly - expecting the UK will arrive in Brussels very humble, almost Canossa like, within some weeks or a few months. The EU27 may extend one more time, but they may also and likely decide to take the fight now.

October 31. 2019 is a near optimal timing for the EU27 and about the worst time for the UK.

The UK must import much food in the winter early spring.
The world market prices on animal food - pork in particular - are record high due to ASF in China and spill over effects on other food products.
Most EU27 countries are at least as well prepared for mitigating their own problems following a 'No Deal' as is the UK.
Negotiating trade deals with the US in an US MAGA election year - how naive can you get?
An US trade deal without having secured the GFA and the open border :eek:
etc...

And note, the decisions do not come from Dublin but from among all EU27 PMs. Only one EU27 member state is needed to prevent another extension.

Most EU27 countries know much about open and closed borders, just ask Bundeskanzlerin Merkel or the Poles or the Danes or the Finns or Estonians or ...

Lars

ancapailldorcha · 29-07-2019 12:23PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The UK may get a somewhat better deal from the USA than we think.

If the USA is playing a long game then it would be in their interests to be fair and reasonable. It would cast a shadow on the existing narrative that being a member of the EU bloc helps European countries in their negotiations with the USA. Whether they are clever enough to play such a long game is a question though. Short-term may override it.

It is overwhelmingly in the American interest that the EU prosper. If it falls apart, the US will lose a lucrative market for its goods and services. Trump might not care in the short term but I won't tar the whole of the US government with that brush.

As I said before, US Congress members will listen to their lobbies and donors, not Boris Johnson. They'll try to be fair but any trade deal will have American interests at its heart, not those of the UK. This is what Trump means when he says "America first."

Stop moaning ffs · 29-07-2019 12:23PM

Find myself in the uncomfortable position of having a lifelong opposition to US interference in other countries problems and policies, to welcoming this interference warmly

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-07-2019 12:29PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I am quite annoyed that the SINDO gives ammunition to people like this

I'll refrain from saying what I really think of that "newspaper".

Is that Eoghan Harris? Needless to say he has spouted some sort of nonsense in his 'career'

KildareP · 29-07-2019 12:31PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There will be a deal with the US, I think I recall seeing that Australia were ready for a deal as soon as the UK exits.

And they will be sold as great achievements, a poke in the eye of the EU and proof that 'Project Fear' was a nonsense.

But what media outlet is actually going to do any deep dive on the agreements? C4 maybe.

Any interviews will be dominated by people like Raab etc claiming that it was done, they said it couldn't be done, Brexit is a success blah blah. But at no stage will anybody actually ask how it is better than what they had before.

The Australian FTA won't happen - a committee was formed in 2016 and they had an interim report (available here: https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Foreign_Affairs_Defence_and_Trade/tradewithUK/Interim_Report/section?id=committees%2freportjnt%2f024101%2f25068) that looked into what a UK FTA might entail.

The report is pretty damning - particularly Section 4.67 onwards, Timing of proposed FTA negotiations with the EU and UK.

In essence it says:
- Australia is in no rush to conclude anything (Point 4.72)
- Australia's interests must come first (Point 4.73)
- The Commonwealth is no reason to give the UK any favourable treatment (Point 4.74)
- Given the option, an EU FTA is more beneficial than a UK-only one (Point 4.76)
- That maintaining good relations with the EU is more important than concluding any deal with the UK (Point 4.77)

In fact Point 4.77 is particularly striking:

4.77
Academics Dr Ben Wellings, Dr Annmarie Elijah and Professor Bruce Wilson submitted there are two political risks associated with the UK’s desire for a free trade agreement with Australia.

The first is that Australia’s good relationship with the EU is damaged by perceptions of alacrity on behalf of Australia to enter into such negotiations with the UK when negotiations on a trade agreement with the EU are just starting.

The second is that Australia’s interests get caught up in the possibly unrealistic worldview of the Brexiteers and thus Australia becomes collateral damage of domestic British politics.

Particularly sobering if you were on the Brexiteer side...

I can see Australia taking the Canadian perspective - why enter a bilateral FTA when you can reap the same (or better) benefits using WTO MFN if Britain is going to apply zero-tariffs on all imports on a unilateral basis?

Lackadaisical · 29-07-2019 12:35PM

There seems to be a major push on to destabilise the Irish Government on this. I wouldn't be a fan of FG but I'm reading a lot of stuff with a large dose of scepticism. The current UK incumbent and the Brexit drivers have massive PR and social media influencer resources at their disposal in a way we have never seen before.

I wouldn't be surprised if they try to take FG down, particularly if SF is seen now as less of a risk due to poor polling.

There's a perception in the UK that FF would be more favourable to Brexit. Most of it is totally misguided, but some of it is assuming that because FF used to sit in a very right wing EP grouping and because one of their MEPs defected to the Tory-led European Conservative and Reform when FF joined the ALDE, that FF more likely to have Eurosceptics that could be brought on side.

I know that anyone who knows FF in Ireland knows this is bonkers, but that's the kind of chatter I have heard and it is logical enough if you were looking at FF with only an outsider's perspective.

J Mysterio · 29-07-2019 12:36PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Find myself in the uncomfortable position of having a lifelong opposition to US interference in other countries problems and policies, to welcoming this interference warmly

I share your sentiment as regards US interventionism. They have a long and sordid history of this throughout the world whereby they have surreptitiously funded hostile takeovers via extremists groups and staged events for their own benefit etc. etc. But, the US can and has been a force for good too. See the GFA and the Berlin Wall etc. etc.

Beechwoodspark · 29-07-2019 12:39PM

FF if anything would be even “greener” on NI issues than FG.

RTÉ news alert saying Boris says he will sit down for talks when the EU are ready to change position on the deal.

Stop moaning ffs · 29-07-2019 12:42PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

FF if anything would be even “greener” on NI issues than FG.

RTÉ news alert saying Boris says he will sit down for talks when the EU are ready to change position on the deal.

Positioning himself as the reasonable one and painting the EU as stubborn and the problem.

Dominic Cummings earning his pay.

Leroy42 · 29-07-2019 12:43PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

FF if anything would be even “greener” on NI issues than FG.

RTÉ news alert saying Boris says he will sit down for talks when the EU are ready to change position on the deal.

How is that an alert? Johnson has said that the UK are willing to restart talks when the EU drop the backstop. Not to discuss it, not to think of alternatives, the EU must drop the backstop before talks even begin.

So either the EU are going to have to back dow, or the UK is, to avoid a No Deal.

Look at the interview with Raab posted earlier about flexibility of the UK, he had no answer. Nothing. And they have nothing to offer the UK in terms of what the EU can gain from dropping the backstop. Which is usual in a negotiation.

Stop moaning ffs · 29-07-2019 12:45PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I share your sentiment as regards US interventionism. They have a long and sordid history of this throughout the world whereby they have surreptitiously funded hostile takeovers via extremists groups and staged events for their own benefit etc. etc. But, the US can and has been a force for good too. See the GFA and the Berlin Wall etc. etc.

Absolutely.

The GFA is used often by US as a template and shining example of how peace can be achieved.

Now the current British government are about to tear it up. Publicly. By reinstating direct rule. Which will lead to a return to violence.

It’ll land at their feet internationally despite the attempts were seeing in uk media to say its ireland that’s doing it.

Lackadaisical · 29-07-2019 12:59PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

FF if anything would be even “greener” on NI issues than FG.

RTÉ news alert saying Boris says he will sit down for talks when the EU are ready to change position on the deal.

That's not necessarily understood in the UK though. Bear in mind that the previous Northern secretary didn't know that people voted along nationalists and Unionist lines and that is part of the jurisdiction they're supposed to be governing!!

VinLieger · 29-07-2019 01:31PM

They are 100% trying to drive a wedge between the Irish political parties and destabilise things for us.

Unfortunately i think many people who arent as read up on brexit as those in this thread might easily fall for this. I really hope the politicians ie Michael Martin and Mary Lou see it for what it really is and don't try take advantage of it.

Stop moaning ffs · 29-07-2019 01:35PM

VinLieger wrote: »

They are 100% trying to drive a wedge between the Irish political parties and destabilise things for us.

Unfortunately i think many people who arent as read up on brexit as those in this thread might easily fall for this. I really hope the politicians ie Michael Martin and Mary Lou see it for what it really is and don't try take advantage of it.

Just yesterday we had FF asking on twitter where are the governments plans for border checks.
Massive misstep by ff to break ranks like that. We all know they’re waiting in the wings to take over but they came on stage with that far too early. And it will make things difficult for us now and them when they do inevitably take over. Hung by their own words.

Strazdas · 29-07-2019 01:35PM

Lots of claims on Twitter today that the British electorate voted for No Deal in 2016. This hard Brexit crowd are really hijacking the narrative

LordBasil · 29-07-2019 01:36PM

I also think Brexiteers hoping/trying to destabilise the Irish government in the hopes that a GE is called and FF replace FG in power are deluded.

A GE this year could have a similar result to 2016 GE instead with FF having more seats than FG but nowhere a majority. FF would struggle to negotiate a coalition with anyone;

The Greens; I think the polls overestimate them as was shown in the Local and European Elections. I mean the Greens did well but not as well as the Exit Polls predicted. They'd also be very cautious after last time.

Labour: Stagnant, unlikely to have the numbers.

Independents/SDs: Too unreliable, not enough to command majority.

SF; Not a hope

FG: A C&S agreement with FG could take months to negotiate. I don't think Leo and Co would agree to one personally

A National Coalition might be the only option which wouldn't be beneficial to the British.

Stop moaning ffs · 29-07-2019 01:40PM

Boris just said he’s spoken to all the Eu leaders and he’s calling Leo today and they’re resolute there’ll be no renegotiation ....not there’s ample space for a new deal

Literally double speak

Sam Russell · 29-07-2019 01:48PM

Sterling just short of a one year high - 29th Aug 2018 had a blip of 90.08p - now it is at 90.06p.

Market moving towards pricing in No Deal.

VinLieger · 29-07-2019 01:50PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Sterling just short of a one year high - 29th Aug 2018 had a blip of 90.08p - now it is at 90.06p.

Market moving towards pricing in No Deal.

Things were picking up at the end of last week but looks like all this No Deal bluster over the weekend is having a big impact pushing it the other way again

Lackadaisical · 29-07-2019 01:53PM

They're also overestimating Irish domestic political focus on Brexit. In any GE here the topics would be health and housing. There's an assumption by the electorate here that the general attitude to Brexit is pretty homogenous.

I think FF would also want to be careful about allowing themselves to be unpicked by Tories. This really is a topic where there's a common "enemy" and a solid Irish position that needs to be maintained.

Effectively we have a situation at the moment where the government is being driven by the Dail anyway. There have even been opposition bills passed that the government didn't support. It's basically in something more akin to a Scandinavian style grand coalition than anything else and that gives FF lots of leeway to show they can drive policy and prepare for full term general election with a fully developed platform.

If they jump at a GE mid crisis I think it would really be shortsighted stuff.

Stop moaning ffs · 29-07-2019 01:57PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

They're also overestimating Irish domestic political focus on Brexit. In any GE here the topics would be health and housing. There's an assumption that the general attitude to Brexit is pretty homogenous.

I think FF would also want to be careful about allowing themselves to be unpicked by Tories. This really is a topic where there's a common "enemy" and a solid Irish position that needs to be maintained.

Effectively we have a situation at the moment where the government is being driven by the Dail anyway. There have even been opposition bills passed that the government didn't support. It's basically in something more akin to a Scandinavian style grand coalition than anything else and that gives FF lots of leeway to show they can drive policy and prepare for full term general election with a fully developed platform.

If they jump at a GE mid crisis I think it would really be shortsighted stuff.

They said two weeks ago they have no plans to call a GE and this weekend criticising the government for not outlining plans.

It’s probably just laying seedbed for the GE when it does happen but it’s badly timed to criticise the FG govt right now. It’ll backfire.

Strazdas · 29-07-2019 01:59PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

They're also overestimating Irish domestic political focus on Brexit. In any GE here the topics would be health and housing. There's an assumption by the electorate here that the general attitude to Brexit is pretty homogenous.

I think FF would also want to be careful about allowing themselves to be unpicked by Tories. This really is a topic where there's a common "enemy" and a solid Irish position that needs to be maintained.

Effectively we have a situation at the moment where the government is being driven by the Dail anyway. There have even been opposition bills passed that the government didn't support. It's basically in something more akin to a Scandinavian style grand coalition than anything else and that gives FF lots of leeway to show they can drive policy and prepare for full term general election with a fully developed platform.

If they jump at a GE mid crisis I think it would really be shortsighted stuff.

I notice though that Lisa Chambers today backed the Govt on the backstop and said it would be wrong for the EU to reopen negotiations on the WA.

Laois_Man · 29-07-2019 02:06PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

If they jump at a GE mid crisis I think it would really be shortsighted stuff.

The reality is, in the event of a no-deal Brexit on October 31st, followed by the UK slowly deviating from EU standards and the resulting need for Ireland and the EU to erect a hard border, FF will, and I think are already positioning themselves to make political hay out of that with an Irish general election in February/March 2020 in their sights!

Any defeat for FG in that election will be sold in the UK media as revenge/victory or a "We told you so"....ignoring the fact that Taoiseach Martin won't be doing much different for the UK if they are still looking for a trade deal with the EU

But we have to stop giving a **** about how the UK are selling this to themselves.

KildareP · 29-07-2019 02:13PM

The Telegraph comment sections are like a parody-fest, spotted this comment on the Varadkar story a few minutes ago:

So the potato famine was really our fault all along because we were exporting so much food, entirely of our own free will, clearly!

I mean - how do you even debate comments like that?

Kermit.de.frog · 29-07-2019 02:14PM

Border infrastructure would not be required straight away. It would be months at least before UK diverged on anything that would warrant it.

In that time UK will need some sort of deal with the EU and they will just tell the UK they need to sign up to the backstop in order to get a deal.

In a no deal the consequences for the UK economy are absolutely dire. The EU can also put up all sorts of restrictions on top of that.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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