Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

McGiver · 28-07-2019 01:45PM

Ultimate Seduction wrote:

So how come Britain can't get the same bilateral deals with the EU that Switzerland has? Excuse the ignorance

EU would hesitantly offer it. It was one of possible solutions.

The main issue here is - UK haven't asked for it!

reslfj · 28-07-2019 01:55PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Hi Guys, don't really get involved in anything Brexit realatee, just wondering why the UK outside the EU is such a catastrophe, but a county like Switzerland is very successful and rich not being in EU ?

Switzerland is effectively in both the single market and customs union via over 100 bilateral agreements with the EU.

Switzerland is 100% in the SM, but not (fully) in the CU.

Switzerland has a history for good governance and people have a high confidence in it will be there tomorrow - was the case even in/after WWII.
Switzerland has had huge economical benefits from having a banking regime with 100% secrecy. This in, however, almost not the case anymore.
Switzerland has long tradition for producing ultra quality products that is in high demand world wide.

Lars

Professor Moriarty · 28-07-2019 02:00PM

Just a straw in the wind, no deal odds shortening daily. As low as 6/4 today.

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 02:11PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just a straw in the wind, no deal odds shortening daily. As low as 6/4 today.

I'm not surprised. One thing that seems totally out of the question is any renegotiation of the WA. Johnson's language is so belligerent and provocative that it's impossible to see any real discussions.

Professor Moriarty · 28-07-2019 02:17PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I'm not surprised. One thing that seems totally out of the question is any renegotiation of the WA. Johnson's language is so belligerent and provocative that it's impossible to see any real discussions.

He's in thrall to the ERG now. In fact he's become their glove puppet. They are adamant they won't accept the WA even without the backstop. The EU are adamant that the WA is the only way forward. Hopefully the adults in the HoC step forward.

reslfj · 28-07-2019 02:20PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

A lot of this was settled in the early days of the EU and the EU arent overly keen on the deal the swiss have. Plus Freedom of Movement isnt favourable amongst leavers.

There has traditionally been large benefits in being an early adaptor of formal relations in general and with the now very large EU27/28 in particular.
The UK rebate and the DK/UK opt-ins/outs are legacy stuff that is no longer available to new EU members.
One day we will have to get an EU Council/EU Parliament that can and will clean up most such outdated legacy rules.

In fact the EU has very explicitly stated that they are not going into any new bilateral multi treaty agreements where each treaty has mouse-trap clauses for things like FoM.
It's much to expensive to maintain 100+ agreements

The EU will have everything in the future under one association type agreement (or membership).

The cost of maintaining the treaties is of major importance for all agreements but not least for trade deals, where new conditions and changes are very common.

Lars

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 02:25PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's in thrall to the ERG now. In fact he's become their glove puppet. They are adamant they won't accept the WA even without the backstop. The EU are adamant that the WA is the only way forward. Hopefully the adults in the HoC step forward.

It definitely suggests no UK-EU negotiations. Johnson's red lines are off the wall and won't even allow for them.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 02:28PM

It’s the mail so take it as it is but it seems Johnson can go ahead with no deal legally.

No law to stop Brexit! Attorney General 'believes Boris Johnson can legally take Britain out of EU by October 31 even if he loses no confidence vote and government collapses'

https://trib.al/O7utohh

Professor Moriarty · 28-07-2019 02:33PM

Strazdas wrote: »

It definitely suggests no UK-EU negotiations. Johnson's red lines are off the wall and won't even allow for them.

He can't compromise because the ERG won't let him. The EU can't compromise because what's the point of the EU if they do. Maybe it's time to accept that the lunatics have taken over the asylum and just stop trying to accommodate them.

reslfj · 28-07-2019 02:34PM

McGiver wrote: »

EU would hesitantly offer it. It was one of possible solutions.

The main issue here is - UK haven't asked for it!

First the EU is not offering a Swiss style 100+ deals agreement.

The UK needs the CU for its JIT and other industrial production which is (partly) exported. 'Region of origin' must include all of the EU for FTAs to work for UK export of e.g. cars (where often as little as 25% is UK added value)

The claim, that the UK can agree better FTAs than the EU have, is simply not true.
Size is almost all that matters in negotiating trade deals.

Lars

Professor Moriarty · 28-07-2019 02:34PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

It’s the mail so take it as it is but it seems Johnson can go ahead with no deal legally.

No law to stop Brexit! Attorney General 'believes Boris Johnson can legally take Britain out of EU by October 31 even if he loses no confidence vote and government collapses'

https://trib.al/O7utohh

That won't suit Johnson. It means he has to take responsibility.

Spanish Eyes · 28-07-2019 02:35PM

I think Johnson is banking on taking it down to the wire in the gamble that the EU will blink at the last minute, and give in to all their demands for a changed WA and issues related to the backstop.

Or maybe he will just call a snap election before exit day, and win a majority for the Tories (if Labour do not get their act together).

Cummings is a dangerous man. I'd be keeping an eye on him and his propaganda/utterances, or those he puts in other people's mouths.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 02:37PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That won't suit Johnson. It means he has to take responsibility.

I don’t see him doing it either. He’s waiting on Parliament to block him so when the election happens either via no confidence vote or otherwise, ‘they won’t let me deliver brexit’ will be his rallying cry.

I reckon anyways. Could well be wrong.

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 02:37PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He can't compromise because the ERG won't let him. The EU can't compromise because what's the point of the EU if they do. Maybe it's time to accept that the lunatics have taken over the asylum and just stop trying to accommodate them.

I reckon the only thing that can stop No Deal is a general election. Johnson is saying he wants a 'new deal' with no backstop whatsoever and won't even talk to the EU unless they offer this to him.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 02:41PM

Is it conspiracy theory stuff to suggest he’s drivin for no deal under the behest of those that stand to make a killing from the outcome, the disaster capitalists and funds?

Kermit.de.frog · 28-07-2019 02:43PM

Heard the phrase "undemocratic backstop" over and over this morning.

Give people in the north a referendum then it will be democratic.

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 02:57PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Heard the phrase "undemocratic backstop" over and over this morning.

Give people in the north a referendum then it will be democratic.

That smacks of Cummings. Johnson never used the phrase before Wednesday.

murphaph · 28-07-2019 03:10PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Is it conspiracy theory stuff to suggest he’s drivin for no deal under the behest of those that stand to make a killing from the outcome, the disaster capitalists and funds?

The whole thing was funded by dark money so certainly not beyond the realms of possiblity.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 03:10PM

this is really poorly considered from FF. the cross party consensus on brexit has been so important to us in this. FF definitely shouldn’t be giving ammo to the Brits but this is exactly that.

https://twitter.com/fiannafailparty/status/1155447467791532032?s=21

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 03:12PM

murphaph wrote: »

The whole thing was funded by dark money so certainly not beyond the realms of possiblity.

Thinking specifically of Farages insider dealings with that fund that made millions the night of the brexit referendum result

It’s all very murky and dark forces at play.

An Claidheamh · 28-07-2019 03:16PM

It's what they do in Britain.

It's called meowing.

Someone comes up with some self-indulgent phrase that the multitude can repeat and it covers up and sets a narrative to the situation.
It worked for their selective memories of their vicious empire.

Before Brexit, I never heard the British refer to the UK as a union*.

*Rather wish Irish people would stop referring to it as a "union" as Ireland never voted to join.
It's as if they're trying to imply it's a rival of the European Union, which is laughable, but par for the course.

On another note, I suspect those unhappy with Varadkar's handling re: the Examiner poll notice the lack of respect FG and Varadkar command among UK politicians by their acceptance of their insults and waiting on their media hand and foot.

Would not have happened with Haughey back in the day, he got results.

On another note, all this nonsense with Boris and his cabinet which includes a right wing failed satrap - Patel, and insulting the EU by putting Raab back in, supports my view that they should not have been given an extension.
They'd change their tune when their currency plummets.

An Claidheamh · 28-07-2019 03:19PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

this is really poorly considered from FF. the cross party consensus on brexit has been so important to us in this. FF definitely shouldn’t be giving ammo to the Brits but this is exactly that.

https://twitter.com/fiannafailparty/status/1155447467791532032?s=21

She's dim, a non-entity.

Jamie2k9 · 28-07-2019 03:50PM

Less than half of people satisfied with Taoiseach's Brexit strategy, poll suggests

43% Satisfied
27% Not Satisfied
22% No Opinion
8% Don't Know

https://www.thejournal.ie/less-than-half-of-people-satisfied-with-taoiseachs-brexit-strategy-4743518-Jul2019/

Personally I would have taught a much higher % of people would be happy with Goverment stance. As the clock ticks I suspect satisfaction rates will as well.

A Dub in Glasgo · 28-07-2019 03:56PM

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Before Brexit, I never heard the British refer to the UK as a union*.

*Rather wish Irish people would stop referring to it as a "union" as Ireland never voted to join.
It's as if they're trying to imply it's a rival of the European Union, which is laughable, but par for the course.

It is definitely linked to the Scottish independence referendum... 'our precious union'... 'the single market of the UK' etc. It started in 2014 and quickly morphed into the Brexit terminolgy as if there was some sort of equivalence between the structures of the EU and UK. They are totally and utterly different.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 03:57PM

So the majority of people replies are satisfied. Cool.

The journal though. Hardly scientific polling really

Jamie2k9 · 28-07-2019 03:59PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

So the majority of people replies are satisfied. Cool.

The journal though. Hardly scientific polling really

Not a Journal Poll. Kantar/Sunday Independent conducted it. Lot of unhappy farmers by S America deal to according to it.

CrabRevolution · 28-07-2019 03:59PM

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/less-than-half-of-people-satisfied-with-taoiseachs-brexit-strategy-4743518-Jul2019/

Personally I would have taught a much higher % of people would be happy with Goverment stance. As the clock ticks I suspect satisfaction rates will as well.

Well the same poll says only 27% of people are unhappy with his approach with the rest either indifferent or saying they don't know. Even then I'd imagine that the 27% consists largely of the cohort of people who'd claim the sky is green just because Varadkar said it was blue.

Strazdas · 28-07-2019 04:03PM

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Well the same poll says only 27% of people are unhappy with his approach with the rest either indifferent or saying they don't know. Even then I'd imagine that the 27% consists largely of the cohort of people who'd claim the sky is green just because Varadkar said it was blue.

I doubt the 27% are concerned about the backstop.....it's probably some other issue

Jamie2k9 · 28-07-2019 04:08PM

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Well the same poll says only 27% of people are unhappy with his approach with the rest either indifferent or saying they don't know. Even then I'd imagine that the 27% consists largely of the cohort of people who'd claim the sky is green just because Varadkar said it was blue.

I get that but I think FG will be disappointed with such a result. Yes only one poll but I taught 65-75 would be happy. Exclude non FG votes and how much of that 43% would be left.

FF will be the big winners long term regardless of a deal/no deal.

Stop moaning ffs · 28-07-2019 04:15PM

I’d say the hospital housing broadband and Maria Bailey fiascos absolutely affected that result.

For my own money brexit is the only thing they’re doing well. And they’re handling it really well.

The political and public hit they’ll take is when they do announce the plans to deal with the border even if its checks away from.

That might be the moment you see FF put the knife in.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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