Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

27-07-2019 06:56PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So trump is saying negotiations are ongoing for a trade deal with the UK...

I was under impression no deals can be negotiated until after the UK do actually leave?

Correct, but nothing stopping them from doing the groundwork first to ensure a rapid agreement process after Brexit, plus the all important "holding pattern" to allow trading on B-day day one.

Bit cynical · 27-07-2019 06:58PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

So trump is saying negotiations are ongoing for a trade deal with the UK...

I was under impression no deals can be negotiated until after the UK do actually leave?

I don't know the extent to which trade talks are taking place but I believe the rule is that whereas trade deals can't be concluded while the UK is in the EU, talks can take place in advance of the UK leaving.

J Mysterio · 27-07-2019 07:05PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

The Guardian is also reporting that the usual call that takes place when there's a new leader in the UK or Ireland to their counterpart hasn't yet happened after four days...

Boris Johnson yet to make a phone call to Irish PM Leo Varadkar

This is very interesting. I presume Leo already made/ attempted to make the call? Because - really - the convention is that leaders ring to congratulate the new leader of an country... They don't wait to receive a call from them?

Lackadaisical · 27-07-2019 07:13PM

There's a fairly significant possibility that this could end up as the biggest breakdown in Anglo-Irish relations since the 1920 and 30s. I don't really think we want to, or will be able to, placate this kind of nonsense.

The sense I'm getting is they're attempting to turn us into the Brexit scapegoat because they're hitting a brick wall by trying to deliver the impossible.

Strange times and I think they're likely to get stranger yet.

Professor Moriarty · 27-07-2019 07:15PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

There's a fairly significant possibility that this could end up as the biggest breakdown in Anglo-Irish relations since the 1920 and 30s. I don't really think we want to, or will be able to, placate this kind of nonsense.

The sense I'm getting is they're attempting to turn us into the Brexit scapegoat because they're hitting a brick wall by trying to deliver the impossible.

Strange times and I think they're likely to get stranger yet.

We're off the hook. The ERG have said they won't accept the WA never mind the backstop.

Lackadaisical · 27-07-2019 07:17PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

We're off the hook. The ERG have said they won't accept the WA never mind the backstop.

Even so, it looks to me like the hibernophobia and paddywhackery is stepping up a notch.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-07-2019 07:18PM

Ends Kenny was the very first leader Theresa May contacted when she became PM.

I have no doubt given the nonsense from Downing Street that it's deliberate.

To the Boris wing of the party Ireland is not a decision maker and is in UK sphere of influence so they go over the head to Macron and Merkel.

Professor Moriarty · 27-07-2019 07:21PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Even so, it looks to me like the hibernophobia and paddywhackery is stepping up a notch.

It will pass. It'll be French next week, the Germans the week after, the Spanish, et cetera ad nauseam.

Strazdas · 27-07-2019 07:23PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is very interesting. I presume Leo already made/ attempted to make the call? Because - really - the convention is that leaders ring to congratulate the new leader of an country... They don't wait to receive a call from them?

The problem simply has to be at the UK end. The Taoiseach and his officials are fully aware of the diplomatic protocol, so something has gone wrong cross channel.

Foghladh · 27-07-2019 07:23PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Even so, it looks to me like the hibernophobia and paddywhackery is stepping up a notch.

How so?

Lackadaisical · 27-07-2019 07:37PM

Foghladh wrote: »

How so?

Well so far, beyond the general media examples and snide remarks by several senior political figures, I have avoided speaking about Brexit when in the UK entirely as anytime I've engaged in a discussion I've ended up in a massive argument, usually with someone who's only source of information is tabloid newspapers / stuff they've heard in the pub.

Basically, on trips to Northern England I now just avoid discussing Brexit or politics at all. It's very much like my approach to visiting Northern Ireland has been for a long time.

I have literally resorted to "Oh I don't really pay attention to that kind of thing ... "(moving swiftly on).

It was something you could have a sane discussion about and agree to disagree. That seems to be fading away.

The general sense I'm getting is that it's going to become very hostile as things inevitably start to become very awkward over the weeks and months ahead.

27-07-2019 07:40PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

It was something you could have a sane discussion about and agree to disagree. That seems to be fading away.

Yeah, it's becoming a lot more toxic if it's even brought up. I avoid it now with English friends.

Mr.Nice Guy · 27-07-2019 07:46PM

I keep coming back to the words Johnson was recorded saying about Trump at a private dinner for the Tories last year:

“I am increasingly admiring of Donald Trump. I have become more and more convinced that there is method in his madness. Imagine Trump doing Brexit. He’d go in bloody hard … There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos. Everyone would think he’d gone mad. But actually you might get somewhere.”

I think everything Johnson does from here on out has to be seen in the context of the above comments. The idea is to rattle the EU, and particularly ourselves. He's hoping the Irish public, media, parties etc. will lose their minds over the British approach and be begging for a rethink of the current strategy. It's similar to the Nixon 'madman theory': make everyone think you are erratic and unhinged in the hope of gaining concessions.

Right now keeping our nerve is more important than ever. Politicians should avoid getting into recriminations and any utterances that can be twisted and distorted by mischievous elements across the water. We've already seen how Varadkar's remarks about moderate unionists considering an all-Ireland state have been picked up by right-wing commentators and the DUP. They are going to be in attack mode throughout the coming weeks.

It's going to be very tempting to want to see our ministers and the EU snipe back but remember that's what they want. We are in full 'blame game' territory now and they should be given no ammunition. The DUP especially will be bricking it in light of the danger to NI's economy. If there's an election in the coming months they would much rather fight it on a British patriotic message to their heartlands: 'vote for us to defend your interests against the bullies in Dublin'. We're already seeing today Paisley - he mustn't be on his holiday break just yet - deriding the "unnecessarily aggressive" language of the Taoiseach.

I hope we just let all this stuff pass by and keep calm. Repeat the line that we are willing to engage constructively, provided that talks respect the commitments of the previous administration. Let them throw a strop like a spoiled child in front of the sweet aisle if that is what they want to do; meanwhile we will be the adults in the room and wait patiently for them to tire of the tantrum.

Leonard Hofstadter · 27-07-2019 07:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Yeah, it's becoming a lot more toxic if it's even brought up. I avoid it now with English friends.

Me too. Mine are all remainers and hate the Tories (even more than I do), so there's just no point, so it saves us all a load of bother if we just don't discuss it. Oddly enough they'll usually try and bring it up with me and I usually try to shoot them down (if you'll forgive the expression).

When I'm seeing them I'm on holidays so I don't want to talk about things that get me wound up (and believe me, Brexit and the absolute ****show that is the Conservative party gets me very wound up if I get going on it).

At the end of the day, just because some in the Tory party want to make the Irish the whipping boy for their sheer failure in this enterprise doesn't mean I need to stoop to that low, my friends are still my friends at the end of the day. Only 37% of the electorate and 25% of the whole UK population voted to leave let's not forget.

Strazdas · 27-07-2019 07:50PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Well so far, beyond the general media examples and snide remarks by several senior political figures, I have avoided speaking about Brexit when in the UK entirely as anytime I've engaged in a discussion I've ended up in a massive argument, usually with someone who's only source of information is tabloid newspapers / stuff they've heard in the pub.

Basically, on trips to Northern England I now just avoid discussing Brexit or politics at all. It's very much like my approach to visiting Northern Ireland has been for a long time.

I have literally resorted to "Oh I don't really pay attention to that kind of thing ... "(moving swiftly on).

It was something you could have a sane discussion about and agree to disagree. That seems to be fading away.

The general sense I'm getting is that it's going to become very hostile as things inevitably start to become very awkward over the weeks and months ahead.

Indeed, I get the impression things have really polarised in the last year or so. The rhetoric from Leave voters seems more hawkish than ever (I suspect the rise of the Brexit Party and the ERG is a big factor....they're all over the airwaves and the press spouting their bile).

PeadarCo · 27-07-2019 07:54PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote:

I think everything Johnson does from here on out has to be seen in the context of the above comments. The idea is to rattle the EU, and particularly ourselves. He's hoping the Irish public, media, parties etc. will lose their minds over the British approach and be begging for a rethink of the current strategy. It's similar to the Nixon 'madman theory': make everyone think you are erratic and unhinged in the hope of gaining concessions.

The problem with the strategy is the UK has to do a deal at some point or other(or their economy will tank). So the threat of a no deal doesn't work if the other side aren't threatened by it.

The issue is that Brexiters still don't understand the power imbalance at play here. The UK while a big economy is this far far smaller than the EU and over half the UKs trade is done either with the EU or through EU trade deals. The UK isn't in a position to threaten the EU economicly.

Spanish Eyes · 27-07-2019 08:00PM

This seems to have been pre planned years ago. Yes I know I could be one of those mad conspiracy theorists!

Austerity introduced. Funding for many things reduced. Population (especially North of Watford Gap) gasping for funds. Food banks everywhere and so on.

And then comes the Brexit Referendum. Get rid of the EU and we will be great again!

And so here we are. Johnson spending the billions that could have been spent up to now.

The mind boggles at it all. But there are things going on behind the scenes that none of us know about, apart from the reality of having to deal with it.

Just my 2c.

Mr.Nice Guy · 27-07-2019 08:30PM

PeadarCo wrote: »

The problem with the strategy is the UK has to do a deal at some point or other(or their economy will tank). So the threat of a no deal doesn't work if the other side aren't threatened by it.

The issue is that Brexiters still don't understand the power imbalance at play here. The UK while a big economy is this far far smaller than the EU and over half the UKs trade is done either with the EU or through EU trade deals. The UK isn't in a position to threaten the EU economicly.

I heard James O'Brien articulate the flaw of the 'walk away' approach very well a few days ago on his show:

“It’s only a powerful negotiating position if you walk back to everything you had, before you started negotiating. It’s not a powerful negotiating position if, by abandoning negotiations, you end up with considerably less than you had before.”

BobbyBobberson · 27-07-2019 08:30PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

There's a fairly significant possibility that this could end up as the biggest breakdown in Anglo-Irish relations since the 1920 and 30s. I don't really think we want to, or will be able to, placate this kind of nonsense.

The sense I'm getting is they're attempting to turn us into the Brexit scapegoat because they're hitting a brick wall by trying to deliver the impossible.

Strange times and I think they're likely to get stranger yet.

Just on this, if a hard Brexit and border piss the UK off and strain Anglo-Irish relation, just imagine how much worse it gets if the Irish caucus in the US blocks a trade deal. As above, strange times.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-07-2019 08:34PM

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Only 37% of the electorate and 25% of the whole UK population voted to leave let's not forget.

They didn't all vote for

* hard Brexit
* blocking EU immigrants only to open up to non-EU immigrants
* for profit NHS
* abolishing EU health and welfare legislation
* continued adversity

Lackadaisical · 27-07-2019 08:36PM

The biggest issue I'm having is because the issue is so fractious and toxic in the UK, we have been kind of avoiding UK suppliers rather than broaching contingency plans with them, as we've had very mixed reactions varying from being told it'll be "alright and there's nothing to worry about", to people thinking it's the end of days to others being mildly hostile to it being brought up.

The net result has been a focus on the continent.

It's very hard to plan around a topic that triggers people, when you need sensible and pragmatic discussion.

Generally finding NI businesses far more prepared and pragmatic than England based counterparts though.

Spanish Eyes · 27-07-2019 08:39PM

Johnson knows a No Deal is unsustainable for the UK economy. We only have to look at blogs etc. about their lack of preparedness.

Anyway, for political anoraks, it's great to be live witnesses to all this. Living through history in the making.

Leroy42 · 27-07-2019 08:51PM

And the fact that No Deal isn't an outcome. It is a complete failure. The Tory party, and BP, are now running on the ticket of being unable to achieve something.

'Vote for me to ensure you get nothing done' is a new type of election slogan.

What is the plan after No Deal. FTA seems to be the goal but nobody seems to be asking the question why the EU would allow a crash out but then give in afterwards when the damage is done.

ancapailldorcha · 27-07-2019 08:55PM

Posts containing insults deleted.

Borderhopper · 27-07-2019 08:56PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

And the fact that No Deal isn't an outcome. It is a complete failure. The Tory party, and BP, are now running on the ticket of being unable to achieve something.

'Vote for me to ensure you get nothing done' is a new type of election slogan.

What is the plan after No Deal. FTA seems to be the goal but nobody seems to be asking the question why the EU would allow a crash out but then give in afterwards when the damage is done.

This is spot on. There seems to be an air of the end of history about a no deal brexit in the UK. ‘Leave, just leave’. Nothing about the future relationship the UK will need to have with, collectively speaking, its largest trading partner, not to mention close military allies.

It’s important to remember that what they’re actually losing their minds about is an insurance policy.

PeadarCo · 27-07-2019 09:06PM

Leroy42 wrote:

What is the plan after No Deal. FTA seems to be the goal but nobody seems to be asking the question why the EU would allow a crash out but then give in afterwards when the damage is done.

I think the issue is that for hard-line Brexiters leaving the EU is the goal. Whatever comes after that doesn't matter because they have achieved their goal. And they are prepared to say/do/promise anything to achieve that goal.

I don't they care what comes after as long as the UK gets out of the EU.

Capt'n Midnight · 27-07-2019 09:37PM

Brexit as a farce. "Do as I say, not as I do"

The official transcript of parliamentary proceedings, Hansard, records more than 700 instances of Rees-Mogg using one or other of the banned words or phrases.

Mr.Wemmick · 27-07-2019 09:47PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

This seems to have been pre planned years ago. Yes I know I could be one of those mad conspiracy theorists!

Austerity introduced. Funding for many things reduced. Population (especially North of Watford Gap) gasping for funds. Food banks everywhere and so on.

And then comes the Brexit Referendum. Get rid of the EU and we will be great again!

And so here we are. Johnson spending the billions that could have been spent up to now.

The mind boggles at it all. But there are things going on behind the scenes that none of us know about, apart from the reality of having to deal with it.

Just my 2c.

Johnson's funding for 20,000 extra police brings us right back to 2010 levels when Cameron/Osborne's severe austerity cuts began.

Agree that something feels very off the way this has played out. To think they've created a monster with austerity and are struggling to contain the fall out - the likes of N. Farage for one.

MrMusician18 · 27-07-2019 09:50PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Brexit as a farce. "Do as I say, not as I do"

The official transcript of parliamentary proceedings, Hansard, records more than 700 instances of Rees-Mogg using one or other of the banned words or phrases.

That's because it's a distraction tactic. Better to have people taking about ridiculous Rees Mogg than the real issues.

MrMusician18 · 27-07-2019 09:52PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Johnson knows a No Deal is unsustainable for the UK economy. We only have to look at blogs etc. about their lack of preparedness.

Anyway, for political anoraks, it's great to be live witnesses to all this. Living through history in the making.

Everyone lives through history, every year, decade, had it's pivotal moments.

I guess what's rare here is that this is recognized as historic before it's even happened.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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