Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim

No doubt the EU will grant an extension to have an election

not if they believe it is just a cynical ploy, the backstop I would say might be the price extracted for such a concession

Joe_ Public

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Election before October 31st almost certainly. Not sure if Boris will pull the plug himself but even if he doesnt there will be a vote of no confidence , probably in September. No doubt the EU will grant an extension to have an election, there is a good chance the Torys will be given the boot and theres a Labour/SNP/ Lib Dem coalition. Customs union and all that back on the table, with a second ref.

Somebody posted a very interesting and detailed Johnson strategy a few pages back much of which i agreed with and which included the early election outlined above. The key for Johnson is securing that election on as favourable terms for his party as he can, however he manages it. One option is ditching the DUP, border in Irish Sea, then going to the country with that option as a platform. Whether that would split his party is a moot point, though, but as i see it, he is not a man flush with great options right now. If, with the help of the "big brain" Cummings he does have a master strategy, i for one will be very keen to see it.

Limpy

trellheim wrote: »

not if they believe it is just a cynical ploy, the backstop I would say might be the price extracted for such a concession

Well if the tories who don't want to be wiped out, could call an election before the 31th and promise brexit if voted in.

They would then get hamstrung getting brexit through the parlament but would remain in power. Aka May's premiership Mark 2.

Brexit fizzles out. Labour blairites, tories and the media would have enough time to discredit Corbyn. Then by the next election people will have little appetite to change. Status quo stays the same.

FrancieBrady

reslfj wrote: »

Revoke A50 - I guess

That's not a 'backstop' that's back to your senses.

Strazdas

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Election before October 31st almost certainly. Not sure if Boris will pull the plug himself but even if he doesnt there will be a vote of no confidence , probably in September. No doubt the EU will grant an extension to have an election, there is a good chance the Torys will be given the boot and theres a Labour/SNP/ Lib Dem coalition. Customs union and all that back on the table, with a second ref.

This is undoubtedly Johnson's plan. He's already in campaign mode and it looks like Cummings was brought in to be his election campaign manager.

Capt'n Midnight

Boris wants to recruit 20,000 police officers.

But spread over 3 years.

I'd expect about 20% of the current force to leave over the same time based on previous rates. (Figure 2 on the fifth page)


The relationship between those two numbers is left as an exercise for the reader.

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Boris wants to recruit 20,000 police officers.

But spread over 3 years.

I'd expect about 20% of the current force to leave over the same time based on previous rates. (Figure 2 on the fifth page)


The relationship between those two numbers is left as an exercise for the reader.

Also worth noting that if this pledge is honoured - and I truly mean IF - it will only barely bring the total number of police up to the level it was before 2010 when the cameron government started its cuts programme.

But who is seriously going to trust a word that comes out of that charlatan's mouth? Was very interesting the other day when Con MP Alberto Costa was asked whether he was confident Johnson would bring in the necessarily legislation to guarantee EU citizens rights in the UK and he could not bring himself to say yes. Worrying thing is, said with all that optimism and bluster, i can see a lot of voters being suckered by it.

Kermit.de.frog

Varadkar makes front page of the FT tomorrow



I imagine his remarks won't go unremarked on.

Joe_ Public

I dont blame Varadkar or anyone on this side, but it seems pretty clear the brexiteers are more than happy to provoke some tit for tat exchanges on this and play to their base. I'd be inclined just to stay out of it as much as possible from now on. Let this play out on the UK side which is the only place it can be settled. Dont give them any more election fodder than is necessary.

Leroy42

It is pretty clear that the UK government is now a No Deal government and nothing, beyond given them everything, will be enough.

We can all call for Corbyn, revoke or whatever but clearly ERG and the like have taken hold and No Deal seems almost inevitable at this point.

IMO, even granting an extension for a GE would be pointless as the likely outcome is a Tory/BP pack.

There will be a border and our relationship with the UK will change. It's not what any of us want but there it is.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1154859919713218560

They should correct that to "to discuss killing the NHS".

L1011

Talks with a hostile congress are fundamentally pointless window dressing of course. And Trump will be in full on campaign mode (may even be a few properly contested Primaries a few months later) by November.

Frank Bullitt

It all seems a bit pointless when the Dems have said if the GFA is undermined, any talks will be shot down.

Tell me how

Given who is in the White House and who is in Downing St, I suspect talks have started. They may not be announced until after Oct 31 but I'd be very surprised if the bones of any deal were not being hammered out right now.

Leroy42's post above is as depressing a summation as I've seen largely because it is entirely possible if not probable at this point as outlined.

Maybe Parliament will block a No Deal (What then though if Johnson refuses to revoke or request extension?) May they'd go for a Vote of No Confidence as the clock ticks down. And what then? Lib Dems/Greens/SNP to appeal to logical Labour and Tory voters to try to pull it back from the brink. I would unfortunately fear the rend result would be as Leroy suggested.

Mr.Nice Guy

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

lawred2

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

Surreal

It's truly an episode of black mirror

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

They're talking to themselves mainly. It's the British hard right addressing the Brexit disciples.

Being inward looking nationalists, they don't even care how this is going down outside the bubble, so it's not even aimed at Ireland.

Tell me how

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

Hope Ireland stick with the professionalism that has been in their communications to this point.
Just keep sticking to the facts which cannot be disputed. Do not react to pettiness or insulting barbs. Or, at least Varadkar, Coveney, McEntee, McGuinness and Richmond need to maintain the high line.

Of course, lets also try to put Andrew Maxwell on to as many political shows as possible to hit them with the snide put downs.

eire4

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1154859919713218560

They should correct that to "to discuss killing the NHS".

Yes I can see that scenario coming to pass very easily and in general England becoming like a mini USA with little in the way of consumer protections, low pay, lack of social protections etc.

jimmycrackcorm

PropJoe10 wrote: »

The sooner that Labour get rid of Corbyn and get someone with actual concrete policies and some credibility in, the better. He is half the problem in the Commons at the moment. Stands for absolutely nothing.

Corbyn is in charge for the same reason that BoJo got his gig. A small and vocal party membership choosing him.

He certainly is no Tony Blair which is exactly what Labour needs now to get back into power. Brexit absolutely suits him so be can re-nationalize the likes of railways without the EU complaining about monopolies. A double blow for the brits to get Brexit and the equaled of CIE on top.

hill16bhoy

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Corbyn is in charge for the same reason that BoJo got his gig. A small and vocal party membership choosing him.

He certainly is no Tony Blair which is exactly what Labour needs now to get back into power. Brexit absolutely suits him so be can re-nationalize the likes of railways without the EU complaining about monopolies. A double blow for the brits to get Brexit and the equaled of CIE on top.

The Labour party has over half a million members and is the biggest political party in Europe.

Corbyn got 313,000 votes in the 2016 leadership election, dwarfing Boris Johnson's 92,000.

In the 2001 and 2005 elections, Blair pulled in 10.7 million and 9.5 million votes respectively, compared to the aalmost 12.9 million votes Corbyn's Labour got in 2017.

Blairism will get Labour nowhere these days and even in its heyday, its popularity was vastly overstated.

The concept of renationalising the railways is highly popular in Britain as franchise after franchise has been a mess. Britain has the most expensive trains in Europe.

reslfj

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

... Brexit absolutely suits him so be can re-nationalize the likes of railways without the EU complaining about monopolies. ...

The EU doesn't prevent re-nationalising. Rail is state owned in very many EU member states. Sweden, Denmark, Germany, France ....

But if e.g. only half the rail-lines are nationalised they must continue to respect fair competition rules against the other non-nationalised half.

Lars

BonnieSituation

devnull wrote: »

Excellent article here
https://news.sky.com/story/no-amount-of-hope-or-optimism-will-ease-boris-johnsons-challenges-11770360



Really nails the problems that the vision of Boris has and all the issues in reality that no amount of cheerleading and bluster about the future and how if you believe in something enough it will happen will resolve. Hope and belikve in oneself, better known as being deluded, will save the UK.

It is good to see some people in the media calling him out for exactly what he is and telling it like it is, sadly time and time again when the Brexiteers come on TV they are not challanged anywhere near enough.

What absolutely drives me spare with this talk of no deal is the idea that they seem to forget, and let's be realistic, this generation of post-Major Tories, never acknowledged, that there was a CIVIL WAR on their territory for over 3 decades in which 3000 people died.

It's beyond my comprehension that those so in love with the Union just pick and choose what history they need for any given moment. Well it's not beyond my comprehension that they do it, it's beyond my comprehension that they NEED to do it.

A ministry for the Union that Boris now heads sounds like the sting of a dying wasp.

How can any moderate unionist in Ulster or in Scotland look at the shambles in London and think "yeah, this is the life for me".

Varadkar's comments earlier on Friday attracted the sort of reaction that one would expect. But it's the sort of comment that needs to be said out loud. We have skin in this game on a lot of levels and we need to keep the pressure on.

Precious Union indeed.

declanflynn

Canada are not going to roll over the eu trade deal for the uk, the us won't do a trade deal if the GFA is undermined by no deal the UK are in a corner but are acting like the EU are in a corner its amusing, we should try not to worry and think of dads army when reading or watching anything about brexit

declanflynn

Canada are not going to roll over the eu trade deal for the uk, the us won't do a trade deal if the GFA is undermined by no deal the UK are in a corner but are acting like the EU are in a corner its amusing, we should try not to worry and think of dads army when reading or watching anything about brexit

Enzokk

Priti Patel hasn't been in the job a week and she is already involved in a controversy. Rules apparently just doesn't apply to her.

Priti Patel accused of breaching ministerial code for second time

The new home secretary, Priti Patel, is facing allegations of breaching the ministerial code for the second time in her parliamentary career for accepting a lucrative position with a global communications firm before receiving the all-clear from an anti-corruption watchdog.

Patel has been working for Viasat, a California-based company with a UK base in Farnborough, for the past three months as a strategic adviser on a salary of £5,000 a month for five hours’ work – or £1,000 an hour.

The ministerial code states former ministers must seek guidance from the advisory committee on business appointments (Acoba) on taking up any business appointments within two years of leaving the role – and must not take up the position until advice has been received.

What she has done isn't that big of a deal and it was cleared, but it is the fact that she only let them know a month after she started. Add this now to her job as Home Secretary, who knows what she will be up to.

Then a piece by Tony Connelly on Johnson. An interesting read.

Guessing Johnson's true intentions, and the rising risk of No Deal

I will just highlight the last paragraph of the piece as most of it is just rehashing the past weeks events with who is in place for Johnson.

Senior EU figures are therefore bracing themselves for a hard September and October. "The problem is," says one EU diplomat, "a lot of Johnson’s entourage don’t really grasp what No Deal really means, what it will mean to negotiate with the EU afterwards. A lot of these people have founded their views on a belief system - it’s not an exact science. When there’s a reality check they will simply blame Remainers in the civil service and they will blame Europe. We’re really now in risky waters."

So we are in for a interesting September and October, but only after the UK has wasted time. May really is the pits, no plan on Brexit and then wasting time when she finally left her job.

Water John

No doubt the plan is, as Peregrinus said some pages ago. Have meetings and pretend talks with a few European PMs, maybe little if any with EU. Come back and go full for No Deal. Parliament stops that, Johnson goes to the country, Lb will support an election.
No a massive or sly plan. It's betting on a minority of the British people supporting a Leave campaign. Enough to elect a majority in the HOC, given the FPTP system.

Laois_Man

Leroy42 wrote: »

IMO, even granting an extension for a GE would be pointless as the likely outcome is a Tory/BP pack.

That's a bit of a leap.
the (slight) uplift the Tory's are getting in the latest polls taken in the last few days is at the expense of the Brexit Party so combined, they're no better off and they still don't add up to a majority, even if you add in UKIP

A labour, Lib Dems and Green coalition does however!

The very existence of the Brexit Party should actually result in the other side winning more seats!

Joe_ Public

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

Its not the likes of a professional troll like Littlejohn i'd be worried about. Its guys like this who are supposed to be the sensible, thoughtful ones:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1154795434981961729

A couple of days ago i was listening to Mareid McGuinness being interviewed by Adam Boulton on Sky and after it was finished, Boulton turned to his next guest and said it was "like talking to a wall." If even the intelligent ones can't get it, then it seems next to pointless to me to try continue explaining it. They're incapable of grasping it.

amacca

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its not the likes of a professional troll like Littlejohn i'd be worried about. Its guys like this who are supposed to be the sensible, thoughtful ones:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1154795434981961729

A couple of days ago i was listening to Mareid McGuinness being interviewed by Adam Boulton on Sky and after it was finished, Boulton turned to his next guest and said it was "like talking to a wall." If even the intelligent ones can't get it, then it seems next to pointless to me to try continue explaining it. They're incapable of grasping it.

I caught that too...rarely see that interviewer act that way even when dealing with difficult guests

I found it surprising that they can have on charlatans and outright liars etc etc and treat them with impartiality but that was the response to mairead...however she did seem irritated during the interview and a little bit like a headmistress handing out a suspension to a misbehaving student so perhaps that rubbed Adam up the wrong way .... might be good for EU side to strike a more conciliatory tone (while not giving an inch) during those interviews