Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Flex · 27-07-2019 10:52AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its not the likes of a professional troll like Littlejohn i'd be worried about. Its guys like this who are supposed to be the sensible, thoughtful ones:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1154795434981961729

A couple of days ago i was listening to Mareid McGuinness being interviewed by Adam Boulton on Sky and after it was finished, Boulton turned to his next guest and said it was "like talking to a wall." If even the intelligent ones can't get it, then it seems next to pointless to me to try continue explaining it. They're incapable of grasping it.

I don’t really have much time for Boulton. Recall him recently interviewing someone in the EU and pressing the backstop needing to be removed and as the EU official replied saying it’s needed to maintain an open and frictionless border which has been critical to establishing and maintaining the GFA he just laughed into his chest shaking his head and dismissed it as if she was a child making a completely nonsensical observation and ridiculing her to the next guest he had on.

Regards Johnson, I suspect that the rhetoric From the UK and their media will be that
*there actually are alternative arrangements available,
*they’ll keep presenting these and so on,
*the EU will see they are not workable or completely fail at keeping the border frictionless,
*This will be presented as “see! We came up with alternative arrangements but the EU won’t accept them because they want to trap us! Well we’ll show them!”
*No deal becomes something new; a way of standing up to the bullies and destroying the secret conspiracy to trap the UK, and becomes politically impossible to reject for a lot of MPs

After no deal they won’t put up a border (because they don’t give a rats ass about Northern Ireland anyway), we will eventually have to and this will then be their excuse to renege on the GFA. Absolutely zero integrity from the Brexiteers on this and that won’t change for as long as they are dependent on the DUP votes

Also fully expect that a lot of the vitriol directed towards ‘Brussels’ and ‘the EU’ will begin being explicitly directed at ‘Dublin’ and ‘the Irish’ as we near October

Leroy42 · 27-07-2019 10:57AM

They are genuinely worried. That is where all the bluff and bluster is coming from.

Johnson hasn't got a plan, well not one that can possibly work, so he is left to the basest form of argument. Bullying, shouting and an appeal to the heart.

He knows he has nothing of detail or substance to offer so instead he demands pride, passion. It's like the worst team coaches. No actual ideas just an appeal to 'playing for the Jersey'.

And the media are worried too. Worried about what is happening and worried about complete inability to make the real issues the news. People like Boulton, despite his best efforts, are p1ssing against the wind and have failed to hold the likes of Johnson, IDS, JRM to account despite numerous interviews.

Far easier to blame the EU, the Irish, TM or whatever rather than face the reality.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 11:02AM

We all new the blame the Irish was coming. And I wonder if Leo did or didn’t know.
His comments yesterday published in today’s FT have thrown a grenade into fireworks factory. It’s upset apparently the right people even if he was only stating the obvious.

But I wonder at the timing though and who it was aimed at if any group?

BonnieSituation · 27-07-2019 11:23AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

We all new the blame the Irish was coming. And I wonder if Leo did or didn’t know.
His comments yesterday published in today’s FT have thrown a grenade into fireworks factory. It’s upset apparently the right people even if he was only stating the obvious.

But I wonder at the timing though and who it was aimed at if any group?

Nothing about Varadkar's comments was coincidental.

I read them in the Irish Times this morning. Nothing at all inflammatory in them, and in fact he tried to dampen any expectation that we are moving to a new constitutional front on the North.

The only thing new about it was the fact that he said it out loud. But it's no different to the comments made by Peter Robinson at the very same summer school (it was at McGill? I stand to be corrected) last year.

Of course Jeffrey Donaldson was out complaining yada yada.

I'm all for confrontational approaches now with the dup and unionism. Because the softly softly approach has long outlived its usefulness and is ignorant of Northern Nationalists wish for a UI.

PeadarCo · 27-07-2019 11:27AM

Flex wrote:

After no deal they wonâ€™t put up a border (because they donâ€™t give a rats ass about Northern Ireland anyway), we will eventually have to and this will then be their excuse to renege on the GFA. Absolutely zero integrity from the Brexiteers on this and that wonâ€™t change for as long as they are dependent on the DUP votes

The thing is if they don't put up a border their side and put checks between NI and the rest of the UK, why would anyone do a trade deal with them?

They will be giving the EU via Ireland a deal that includes no trarrifs or cheques on any goods into the UK. Ireland would like a deal to get rid of the border controls on the Irish side. However why would anyone bother. The first thing a country will ask the UK will be for no trarrifs or controls to be applied for goods and services from their own countries. It doesn't sound as if its been thought through.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 11:27AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Nothing about Varadkar's comments was coincidental.

I read them in the Irish Times this morning. Nothing at all inflammatory on them, and in fact he tried to dampen any expectation that we are moving to a new constitutional front on the North.

The only thing new about it was the fact that he said it out loud. But it's no different to the comments made by Peter Robinson at the very same summer school (it was at McGill? I stand to be corrected) last year.

Of course Jeffrey Donaldson was out complain yada yada.

I'm all for confrontational approaches now with the dup and unionism. Because the softly softly approach has long outlived its usefulness and is ignorant of Northern Nationalists wish for a UI.

Don’t know if I agree. Getting into a shouting match with them at this late stage wouldn’t achieve anything positive I don’t think.

I listened to the IT podcast this morning with the whole interview with Leo and he’s talking firm but not aggressive. And it’s already being misconstrued wildly over there.

Better not to drop to their level and just quietly reply as if they’re the lunatic on the ledge threatening to jump that they are

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 11:29AM

PeadarCo wrote: »

The thing is if they don't put up a border their side and put checks between NI and the rest of the UK, why would anyone do a trade deal with them?

They will be giving the EU via Ireland a deal that includes no trarrifs or cheques on any goods into the UK. Ireland would like a deal to get rid of the border controls on the Irish side. However why would anyone bother. The first thing a country will ask the UK will be for no trarrifs or controls to be applied for goods and services from their own countries. It doesn't sound as if its been thought through.

Because a border on their side would see the DUP scream they’re bein cutt off from the uk.

The border in the sea is going to happen. Almost a certainty. Johnson will throw the election and no longer need the DUP and they’ll lose their minds but little they can do.

BonnieSituation · 27-07-2019 11:31AM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Don’t know if I agree. Getting into a shouting match with them at this late stage wouldn’t achieve anything positive I don’t think.

I listened to the IT podcast this morning with the whole interview with Leo and he’s talking firm but not aggressive. And it’s already being misconstrued wildly over there.

Better not to drop to their level and just quietly reply as if they’re the lunatic on the ledge threatening to jump that they are

But he did quietly reply and it still has them all aflutter.

I'm in no way suggesting we should abandon our first class diplomacy of the last 5 years but we should also not hide what we think is right, especially when it concerns citizens of ours that are being sidelined by this English Nationalist omnishambles.

So if they don't like the reality or being told about it, then that's their problem. Not ours.

J Mysterio · 27-07-2019 11:34AM

It seems clear that Varadkar and Coveney have decided they have had enough, and that they are going to up the rhetoric.

Varadkar stating outright that that NDB will break the UK.

"I do think that more and more people, certainly in the event of a no deal, more people in Northern Ireland will come to question the union...

"Ironically one of the things that could really underminethe union - the United Kingdom union - is a hard Brexit, both for Northern Ireland and for Scotland. But that is a problem that they are going to have to face," he said.
Source

Coveney saying BJ's comments unhelpful and that they set UK on a collision course with Ireland/EU.

"The statements of the British Prime Minister yesterday in the House of Commons were very unhelpful to this process," Mr Coveney said.

"He seems to have made a deliberate decision to set Britain on a collision course with the European Union and with Ireland in relation to the Brexit negotiations, and I think only he can answer the question as to why he is doing that."
Source

While these discussion points are not new, I think there is a change in tone to be observed, and a hardening of sentiment.

Two schools of thought I guess: a) keep schtum and allow their rope to run out or b) speak your mind and call out the bull****.

Well, we have been quite diplomatic for 3 years now, making the salient points, but reasonably gently. There has obviously been some calculation on this in the Irish cabinet... Perhaps they want to make a splash on this in UK media to better highlight the issue in UK national discourse? Boris obviously wants to swat the issue away and undermine it for UK public.

Seems as though inflammatory speech and hard sentiment has done well on both sides of the Atlantic (UK/US). Political discourse seems to be degenerating globally in recent years into a sort of battle royale. Maybe the Irish government have decided to enter the game? I dont think I would neccesarily reccomend or encourage this, but I'm not shocked either and - tbh - there is a small part of me that enjoys seeing it given back, even if I regret the lowering of international diplomacy and multilateralism.

Mr.Wemmick · 27-07-2019 11:37AM

Blame all in sundry, but isn't that what they've always done. The reason why they are in this mess, blaming the EU for all their austerity woes since the year dot.

The media have a lot to answer for, and the UK are full to the brim with politicians who aren't accountable for what is happening, it's always someone else's fault. Even the remainers are throwing up their hands and giving up.. Soubry and her new-ish party (whatsitname) failed to get behind the Lib Dems and support the country. Party first, so more of the same old tribal crap.

I am just hoping there will be some gumption and power in the back benches from now on to expose showman Boris and his nutcase of a team.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 11:39AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

It seems clear that Varadkar and Coveney have decided they have had enough, and that they are going to up the rhetoric.

Varadkar stating outright that that NDB will break the UK.

Coveney saying BJ's comments unhelpful and that they set UK on a collision course with Ireland/EU.

While these discussion points are not new, I think there is a change in tone to be observed, and a hardening of sentiment.

Two schools of thought I guess: a) keep schtum and allow their rope to run out or b) speak your mind and call out the bull****.

Well, we have been quite diplomatic for 3 years now, making the salient points, but reasonably gently. There has obviously been some calculation on this in the Irish cabinet... Perhaps they want to make a splash on this in UK media to better highlight the issue in UK national discourse? Boris obviously wants to swat the issue away and undermine it for UK public.

Seems as though inflammatory speech and hard sentiment has done well on both sides of the Atlantic (UK/US). Political discourse seems to be degenerating globally in recent years into a sort of battle royale. Maybe the Irish government have decided to enter the game? I dont think I would neccesarily reccomend or encourage this, but I'm not shocked either and - tbh - there is a small part of me that enjoys seeing it given back, even if I regret the lowering of international diplomacy and multilateralism.

Well all I am seeing is in effect ‘WHO DO THEY THINK THEY ARE??)THE BLOODY PADDIES BETTER KNOW THEIR PLACE!’

Turned up to 11 after Leo and simons comments.

54and56 · 27-07-2019 11:42AM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1154859919713218560

They should correct that to "to discuss killing the NHS".

My immediate thought on this is that the US won't start trade talks until after Brexit as by then, assuming a no deal Brexit, the UK will have had to declare their WTO tariffs and should they decide to lower them the US will have little motivation to do a deal unless the big prizes they want (unrestricted agriculture trade, open up the NHS etc) are on the table as they'll already benefit from the WTO tariffs.

Also, there is no way Trump will have either forgotten or forgiven Boris for calling him an incompetent idiot (can't remember the exact quote) so he's going to completely school Boris on the trade talks and serve his revenge nice and cold.

27-07-2019 11:44AM

Preparations for new trade deals with the US are now on the way.

Trump: US and UK working on 'very substantial' trade deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49135045
US President Donald Trump has said talks about a "very substantial" trade deal with the UK are under way.

He said a bilateral post-Brexit deal could lead to a "three to four, five times" increase in current trade.

There are no details about how this would be achieved.

After a phone call with Boris Johnson on Friday, Mr Trump said the new prime minister would be "great". He added US-UK trade had previously been "impeded" by Britain's membership of the EU.

Once the UK leaves, he said, the UK can expect to do "much more" trade with the US, he said.

Mr Johnson and Mr Trump said they would begin formal negotiations "as soon as possible" after the UK leaves the EU.

While the UK is in the EU, it cannot sign its own trade deals. Brexit is due to happen on 31 October.

Meanwhile, provisional trade deals are being made in preparation for a "no deal" Brexit.

As a member of the EU, the UK is part of about 40 trade agreements the EU has with more than 70 countries.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal it would lose these trade deals immediately - worth about 11% of total UK trade.

So far the UK has agreed "continuity" deals with 12 countries and regions: Central America, Andean countries, Norway and Iceland, Caribbean countries, Pacific Islands, Liechtenstein , Israel, Palestinian Authority, Switzerland, the Faroe Islands, Eastern and Southern Africa and Chile.

These areas account for 64% of trade currently covered by EU agreements for which the UK is seeking continuity, the government says. The agreements mostly replicate EU trade deals.

In addition, the UK has also announced a deal in principle with South Korea, which is "expected to be signed shortly".

It will be very interesting to see how many more deals are done before Brexit is done as the more external provisional deals there are, the less damaging a no deal Brexit will be to the British economy.

J Mysterio · 27-07-2019 11:59AM

What is remarkable is that the North has been reasonably muted. Little to no protests or bother of significance.

Ok, Lyra McKee was shot in an obvious tragedy, and there was the Derry car bomb (obvious warning), but not much besides? These are quickly forgotten about in the endless news cycle.

The Orange 'season' has passed with little trouble and it can be said that most people do indeed crave stability and peace so they can just get on with their lives, but NI has had the Sword of Damocles hanging over it for some time now, and no functioning government for years (enjoying the honour of a world record for this). Westminster has begun to make laws for NI, even if the most recent ot these seem to favour Nationalist sentiment.

I'm actually surprised that the dissident elements haven't tried to focus minds a little more? That they haven't really woken from their light slumber? Obviously I dont want to precipitate violence but I guess there may have been calculations on the IRA side that to cause trouble might be counter productive as the UK is the weak element in negotiations. That might change however with the hardening of positions and the UK's intransigence on NI...

LeinsterDub · 27-07-2019 12:03PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

I'm actually surprised that the dissident elements haven't tried to focus minds a little more? That they haven't really woken from their light slumber? Obviously I dont want to precipitate violence but I guess there may have been calculations on the IRA side that to cause trouble might be counter productive as the UK is the weak element in negotiations. That might change however with the hardening of positions and the UK's intransigence on NI...

Don't interrupt your enemy while they are busy making a mistake

FrancieBrady · 27-07-2019 12:10PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

What is remarkable is that the North has been reasonably muted. Little to no protests or bother of significance.

Ok, Lyra McKee was shot in an obvious tragedy, and there was the Derry car bomb (obvious warning), but not much besides? These are quickly forgotten about in the endless news cycle.

The Orange 'season' has passed with little trouble and it can be said that most people do indeed crave stability and peace so they can just get on with their lives, but NI has had the Sword of Damocles hanging over it for some time now, and no functioning government for years (enjoying the honour of a world record for this). Westminster has begun to make laws for NI, even if the most recent ot these seem to favour Nationalist sentiment.

I'm actually surprised that the dissident elements haven't tried to focus minds a little more? That they haven't really woken from their light slumber? Obviously I dont want to precipitate violence but I guess there may have been calculations on the IRA side that to cause trouble might be counter productive as the UK is the weak element in negotiations. That might change however with the hardening of positions and the UK's intransigence on NI...

I was in Asda, Enniskillen yesterday and had an issue with a product and had to speak to a manager about it. I couldn't resist asking him about the obvious sign that the store was quiet and Brexit. He said business has been steadily falling over the last few years and has most recently fallen off a cliff, particularly from the south. He reckoned that Asda won't hang around if targets aren't being met, and sadly I don't think you will see vocal public reaction until visible things like that start to happen.

woohoo!!! · 27-07-2019 12:33PM

The blame game is well established and it's also a movable feast. After Brexit and the WTO reality bites, they'll hitch their wagon to Trump and start denouncing WTO, best to get that US trade deal and drown out concerns about good standards and the NHS. A brave new global Britain yada yada.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 12:47PM

Re the imaginary US/UK trade deal
Impeachment investigations on trump were just announced and also remember Pelosi said there’ll be no trade deal with the uk of its a no deal brexit that threatens the GFA

All trade deals have to go through through the house.

So trump is talking out of his back end.

In a shock to absolutely nobody

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 12:48PM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

The blame game is well established and it's also a movable feast. After Brexit and the WTO reality bites, they'll hitch their wagon to Trump and start denouncing WTO, best to get that US trade deal and drown out concerns about good standards and the NHS. A brave new global Britain yada yada.

Prepare to see them take on ‘the 51st state’ as a monicker and they’ll be spinning it and proud of it

Tell me how · 27-07-2019 12:56PM

Straightforward summation of the state of readiness in the UK at the moment.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1154761529516003328

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 12:58PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Straightforward summation of the state of readiness in the UK at the moment.

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1154761529516003328

The telegraph actually reporting facts?

We truly are in end days

Tell me how · 27-07-2019 01:05PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The telegraph actually reporting facts?

We truly are in end days

I wonder how do the journalists from the respective papers and positions interact when they are in a press room or waiting for an interview or whatever.

Surely any semblance of bias which they aim to mask when publishing their work is in plain view and I imagine they don't just spend the time waiting talking about Love Island or Man Utd's transfer dealings before doing their work.

Surely the likes of Ian Dunt has no time for making small talk with Brendan O'Neil. Or Isabel Oakeshott and Jon Snow either. I wonder have there been many shouting matches and accusations of being a shill between media 'professionals' behind the scenes.

declanflynn · 27-07-2019 01:06PM

Any chance the DUP would agree to some type of border in the Irish sea and claim to have saved the union europe and ireland

Mr.Wemmick · 27-07-2019 01:08PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The telegraph actually reporting facts?

We truly are in end days

Giving Boris the backing for an extension. The papers are preparing the road for him, how kind..

Stop moaning ffs · 27-07-2019 01:09PM

declanflynn wrote: »

Any chance the DUP would agree to some type of border in the Irish sea and claim to have saved the union europe and ireland

Not a hope. They’d wrap a tricolour around themselves and then set themlves alight before that will happen.

But the sea border is gonna happen and Boris stab them in the back yard to get his brexit

Joe_ Public · 27-07-2019 01:10PM

There's no doubt that a US FTA is one of the big prizes for many of the staunch brexiteers and a big reason for the sustained push for a no deal crash out. Last year a right wing US think tank called Cato published the following paper setting out the basis for such a deal with Daniel Hannan's name attached to it. The paragraph quoted below was slipped in almost surreptitiously towards the end, but it leaves no doubt what the stragegy is. Not only will the brexiteers tolerate the wholesale sell off of the NHS to US corparate interests, they will, after a period, actively endorse it. Let there be no mistake about that.

https://www.cato.org/publications/white-paper/ideal-us-uk-free-trade-agreement-free-traders-perspective

"As for other services areas, health services are an area where both sides would benefit from openness to foreign competition, although we recognize any changes to existing regulations will be extremely controversial. Perhaps, then, for other areas the initial focus should be on other fields such as education or legal services, where negotiators can test the waters and see what is possible. That said, we would envisage a swift, time-tabled implementation of recognition across all areas within 5 years."

Strazdas · 27-07-2019 01:13PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Elements of the UK media really ramping up the anti-Irish vitriol. Here's Richard Littlejohn of the Daily Mail.

https://twitter.com/sendboyle/status/1154709546834812929

Suspect we'll see a lot of this in the coming months.

Gavan Reilly reports that the Barclay thing never even happened, so our friend Littlejohn is lying on top of everything else.

Sam Russell · 27-07-2019 01:16PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Gavan Reilly reports that the Barclay thing never even happened, so our friend Littlejohn is lying on top of everything else.

Isn't lying a requirement in the Kipper infected world of Brexit?

Strazdas · 27-07-2019 01:21PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Isn't lying a requirement in the Kipper infected world of Brexit?

The two go hand in hand. The whole Brexit project is built on a web of lies and being in a state of denial.

If they came clean about what it really entailed, it would fall apart within five minutes.

upupup · 27-07-2019 01:24PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Re the imaginary US/UK trade deal
Impeachment investigations on trump were just announced and also remember Pelosi said there’ll be no trade deal with the uk of its a no deal brexit that threatens the GFA

All trade deals have to go through through the house.

So trump is talking out of his back end.

In a shock to absolutely nobody

The US/UK Trade will happen followed by Mexico paying for the wall,North Korea,China and Iran then bow down to the mighty Trump and all the Muslims leave the US.....Yes.talking out of his back end as usual

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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