Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

PropJoe10 · 26-07-2019 03:05PM

McGiver wrote: »

Won't help, he's unelectable and not fit to be the PM anyway. Zero leadership. Good as an armchair Socialist, but that's all.

The sooner that Labour get rid of Corbyn and get someone with actual concrete policies and some credibility in, the better. He is half the problem in the Commons at the moment. Stands for absolutely nothing.

Valhallapt · 26-07-2019 03:07PM

Any signs of Steve Bannon’s hand in all this? I know he was involved in the referendum vote, but is he back in the picture again?

Stop moaning ffs · 26-07-2019 03:11PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Any signs of Steve Bannon’s hand in all this? I know he was involved in the referendum vote, but is he back in the picture again?

Was in contact with Johnson and later Johnson denied even meeting him yet Bannon on camera was able to tell specifically what he advised him on.

It was boris’ comment about Muslim women in hijabs looking like letter boxes came soon after afaik

hill16bhoy · 26-07-2019 03:16PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Any signs of Steve Bannon’s hand in all this? I know he was involved in the referendum vote, but is he back in the picture again?

Chloe Westley's appointment as digital media advisor to Johnson smacks of Bannon's fingerprints.

Westley has some very dodgy associations including being the frontwoman for the US funded astro-turf anarcho-capitalist group the "Taxpayers' Alliance".

She tweeted the following about Anne Marie Waters, the co-founder with Stephen Yaxley-Lennon of the far right Pegida UK group:

EAVj-t6XkAEaPC3?format=jpg&name=900x900

beggars_bush · 26-07-2019 03:22PM

The best bet is for the Lib Dems to gain disaffected Tory voters (one third of them according to polls) and gain a load of seats
Labour to hold their share of seats on a remain campaign
And the Tories to haemorrage votes due to people's fear of a no deal scenario and BoJos crew who have taken control

Or maybe I'm mad

devnull · 26-07-2019 03:32PM

Excellent article here
https://news.sky.com/story/no-amount-of-hope-or-optimism-will-ease-boris-johnsons-challenges-11770360

You can say that there are "fantastic alternatives to the backstop" all you like, you can say the EU will negotiate a new deal with us all you like, you can say you can go for no-deal while adhering to the Good Friday Agreement all you like, you can say there are tech solutions to the border, again and again and again, but it doesn't make it happen, it doesn't will these things into existence.

Sometimes in politics, where there's a will, there isn't a way and you have to will something else, a compromise or half way house - something the PM's side have often seemed unwilling to do.

Really nails the problems that the vision of Boris has and all the issues in reality that no amount of cheerleading and bluster about the future and how if you believe in something enough it will happen will resolve. Hope and belikve in oneself, better known as being deluded, will save the UK.

It is good to see some people in the media calling him out for exactly what he is and telling it like it is, sadly time and time again when the Brexiteers come on TV they are not challanged anywhere near enough.

Tell me how · 26-07-2019 03:32PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

The best bet is for the Lib Dems to gain disaffected Tory voters (one third of them according to polls) and gain a load of seats
Labour to hold their share of seats on a remain campaign
And the Tories to haemorrage votes due to people's fear of a no deal scenario and BoJos crew who have taken control

Or maybe I'm mad

Brexit Party are likely going to come storming in to Westminster depending on the status of Brexit at the time of the election.

While I believe there is a majority, at this point, who want to remain within the EU, there are also large numbers who have bought in to the Farage, Daily Express, Mark Francois rhetoric.

THE UK could have a very unbalanced parliament for the next ten years out of this.
The days of Labour/Conservatives/Lib Dems taking 90% of the seats are gone for a while I'd imagine.

trellheim · 26-07-2019 04:26PM

I listened to the YouTube video linked earlier where Cummings was speaking.

It's very clever what he did (also I think highly objectionable from a moral standpoint), if the other parties haven't cottoned onto it, then they could easily lose again. I see this as a direct attack on democracy.

Linked here again https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=552&v=CDbRxH9Kiy4&fbclid=IwAR3HWc31AxZy7RALpdJsj-Buvecr2AItgJBr2PJR-ucPk5zsBWZggeEY6qo

seriously folks stick it on and listen - this is what we are in for and you need to know the tactics being used.

upupup · 26-07-2019 04:58PM

trellheim wrote: »

Linked here again https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=552&v=CDbRxH9Kiy4&fbclid=IwAR3HWc31AxZy7RALpdJsj-Buvecr2AItgJBr2PJR-ucPk5zsBWZggeEY6qo

seriously folks stick it on and listen - this is what we are in for and you need to know the tactics being used.

"Brexit:The uncivil war" shows how Dominic Cummings did it...highly recommended,I have a lot of respect for cummings after watching it.He fooled everybody with the leave campaign,I wonder can he fool them again...Probably
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U9PtoH5bsM

Strazdas · 26-07-2019 05:25PM

devnull wrote: »

Excellent article here
https://news.sky.com/story/no-amount-of-hope-or-optimism-will-ease-boris-johnsons-challenges-11770360

Really nails the problems that the vision of Boris has and all the issues in reality that no amount of cheerleading and bluster about the future and how if you believe in something enough it will happen will resolve. Hope and belikve in oneself, better known as being deluded, will save the UK.

It is good to see some people in the media calling him out for exactly what he is and telling it like it is, sadly time and time again when the Brexiteers come on TV they are not challanged anywhere near enough.

The Tories / ERG should be called out on why they are so violently opposed to the backstop. They are practically admitting that they seem themselves having a distant relationship with the EU and Ireland in the future and couldn't care less about the border.

Strazdas · 26-07-2019 05:27PM

upupup wrote: »

"Brexit:The uncivil war" shows how Dominic Cummings did it...highly recommended,I have a lot of respect for cummings after watching it.He fooled everybody with the leave campaign,I wonder can he fool them again...Probably
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3U9PtoH5bsM

He conned the British public though, sold them a fantasy Brexit that was undeliverable.

He did a great job, mind you......even now they can't admit they were conned and are still demanding the thing they supposedly voted for.

Bit cynical · 26-07-2019 05:34PM

Strazdas wrote: »

He conned the British public though, sold them a fantasy Brexit that was undeliverable.

He did a great job, mind you......even now they can't admit they were conned and are still demanding the thing they supposedly voted for.

However the success of the campaign was due to careful targeting. The majority of people had already made up their mind one way or another. Cummings was able to use data and machine learning to identify fence sitters and hammer those in the lead up to the vote. This is something all campaigns try to do. He was just able to do it more accurately.

If he had really conned the British public in bulk then you would see a much larger swing the other way in the years and months after the referendum.

fly_agaric · 26-07-2019 05:37PM

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

I listened to the YouTube video linked earlier where Cummings was speaking.

It's very clever what he did (also I think highly objectionable from a moral standpoint), if the other parties haven't cottoned onto it, then they could easily lose again. I see this as a direct attack on democracy.

There badly needs to be rules on social media so people like him cannot manipulate and target the general public like that. The scariest thing about it is because it's personalised advertising, I see completely different adverts to everyone else. At least in traditional media, everyone can see what everyone else is doing.

Yes and you can publish a load of finely crafted half-truths (or even lies) to push the buttons of your micro-segment or whatever without any challenge.
I wonder is a bit like when mass-literacy & printing took off and people started to publish pamphlets (often full of nonsense) to push whatever agenda they wanted.

Hopefully people will also get increasingly wise to it and self innoculate to some extent.

I was laughing at the part at end where someone in audience asked a slido question about if he "felt guilt at what he'd done" and said no, that EU integration is driving anti-immigration and protectionist sentiments in the public (ala the 1930s) and things like the UK leaving the EU will "drain the poison"!

That seems a bit naive for such an apparently clever man.

Strazdas · 26-07-2019 05:39PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

However the success of the campaign was due to careful targeting. The majority of people had already made up their mind one way or another. Cummings was able to use data and machine learning to identify fence sitters and hammer those in the lead up to the vote. This is something all campaigns try to do. He was just able to do it more accurately.

If he had really conned the British public in bulk then you would see a much larger swing the other way in the years and months after the referendum.

He insisted that 'Leave' be as vague as possible with no detail. It ended up with toffs and the poor, communists and the far right all thinking they voted for the exact same thing

Kermit.de.frog · 26-07-2019 05:41PM

I note Varadkar and Coveney keep saying "a backstop" must be in the agreement instead of "the backstop"...

Room for compromise I reckon.

Spanish Eyes · 26-07-2019 05:42PM

Honestly the Remain side were abysmal all through.

Time for them to get their act together and speak as one. They really need to fight back now.

But Labour remainers seem to be terrified to say anything. That may change very soon though, there have been murmurs from some quarters there.

As for Corbyn, well that is the mystery of the century really, well to me anyway. LP seem to be just waiting for annihilation with him as Dear Leader. I don't get it, but maybe others do.

upupup · 26-07-2019 05:50PM

Strazdas wrote: »

He conned the British public though, sold them a fantasy Brexit that was undeliverable.

He did a great job, mind you......even now they can't admit they were conned and are still demanding the thing they supposedly voted for.

Brexit became undeliverable after Mays red lines.The only way to get a clean Brexit is to put the border in the sea.
Cummings knows this and I hope it's his plan.

Limpy · 26-07-2019 05:52PM

Since the ref result the tories were trying to hold on to power rather then deliver brexit. Cameron bottled it. May was giving all the time she needed to bottle it by the EU. Boris dont need to deliver brexit. He just needs to keeps the tories in power. He will be giving all the time he needs to bottle it to.

The EU would rather any Tory in Power then Corbyn. I believe if there was a blairite in charge of labour then the EU would of turned there backs on the tories and forced their hand long ago.

ziggyman17 · 26-07-2019 05:53PM

The fat pig is an idiot. I hope the Irish goverment and Europe do not blink first.. That **** sums up the Engish to a tee..*****

Bit cynical · 26-07-2019 05:59PM

Strazdas wrote: »

He insisted that 'Leave' be as vague as possible with no detail. It ended up with toffs and the poor, communists and the far right all thinking they voted for the exact same thing

However, as I suggested before, if the bulk of them had not basically made their mind up already before the campaigns were under way, and if they had been conned as you suggest, one would expect a much larger reversal after the referendum when the supposed lies and distortions had been pointed out.

Sam Russell · 26-07-2019 06:02PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I note Varadkar and Coveney keep saying "a backstop" must be in the agreement instead of "the backstop"...

Room for compromise I reckon.

Well, either the backstop that is restricted to NI, or the one that covers the whole of the UK.

Simples.

FrancieBrady · 26-07-2019 06:04PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, either the backstop that is restricted to NI, or the one that covers the whole of the UK.

Simples.

Does another kind exist or need to exist?

Lackadaisical · 26-07-2019 06:05PM

Just in case anyone was in any doubt about the pettiness and attention to mindless details of the incoming British cabinet:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1154782412557168643?s=20

Also they seem to be imposing imperial weights and measures again.

I'd suspect we're going to see the end of any kind of sensible negotiations and just endless tabloid headline-seeking jingoism.

Sam Russell · 26-07-2019 06:09PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Just in case anyone was in any doubt about the pettiness and attention to mindless details of the incoming British cabinet:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1154782412557168643?s=20

Also they seem to be imposing imperial weights and measures again.

JRM was and is an Imperialist. There were no metric measures in the nineteenth century.*

What a pompous ass.

Except the Broad gauge in Ireland (1.6 metres) and the Florin (1/10th of a GBP)

Bit cynical · 26-07-2019 06:17PM

Limpy wrote: »

Since the ref result the tories were trying to hold on to power rather then deliver brexit. Cameron bottled it. May was giving all the time she needed to bottle it by the EU. Boris dont need to deliver brexit. He just needs to keeps the tories in power. He will be giving all the time he needs to bottle it to.

The EU would rather any Tory in Power then Corbyn. I believe if there was a blairite in charge of labour then the EU would of turned there backs on the tories and forced their hand long ago.

I think the problem with the UK Remain side from Ireland's perspective is that they want to be seen as being correct as much as they want to reverse the Brexit process. Therefore a disastrous no deal brexit is a good outcome for them (at least the ones who are reasonably insulated from the economic affects) as much as stopping brexit. Hence their efforts through parliament to veto any sort of deal that might have otherwise had a chance.

At each stage the strategy is to up the ante. Either brexit is reversed or a no deal brexit happens and in the latter case they get to say "told you so". As time has gone on, unfortunately for Ireland, it is this latter scenario which appears to be unfolding.

Strazdas · 26-07-2019 06:30PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

However, as I suggested before, if the bulk of them had not basically made their mind up already before the campaigns were under way, and if they had been conned as you suggest, one would expect a much larger reversal after the referendum when the supposed lies and distortions had been pointed out.

But they voted for a vague, abstract notion which could mean just about anything ("leave the EU"). In essence they were conned by Vote Leave but lack the sophistication or intelligence to know they were conned (and British politicians and the right wing press are in total denial about what happened).

L1011 · 26-07-2019 06:45PM

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Just in case anyone was in any doubt about the pettiness and attention to mindless details of the incoming British cabinet:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/1154782412557168643?s=20

Also they seem to be imposing imperial weights and measures again.

I'd suspect we're going to see the end of any kind of sensible negotiations and just endless tabloid headline-seeking jingoism.

No comma after and? I for one welcome our dildo-collecting revered former President of South Africa...

https://stancarey.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/oxford-commas-nelson-mandela-and-stephen-king/

He is basically requiring the use of a Victorian style guide with no concept that time has moved on; but of course he applies that to everything

reslfj · 26-07-2019 06:46PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I note Varadkar and Coveney keep saying "a backstop" must be in the agreement instead of "the backstop"...

Room for compromise I reckon.

There is absolutely no willingness among EU27 politicians and more importantly not at all among EU27 voters to reopen the WA. There is even less willingness to even discuss the backstop.
Moving back to the customs/regulatory border in the Irish sea, will likely be possible to agree with the EU27.

But other than that it's "No, No, No" from the EU27.

The EU27 can very easily afford a 'No Deal' Brexit, but the UK can't - not by a million miles.

It's not how much it cost us - it's just money. It's how fast the funeral for UK politics and its economy is scheduled.

Lars

A Shropshire Lad · 26-07-2019 06:48PM

Election before October 31st almost certainly. Not sure if Boris will pull the plug himself but even if he doesnt there will be a vote of no confidence , probably in September. No doubt the EU will grant an extension to have an election, there is a good chance the Torys will be given the boot and theres a Labour/SNP/ Lib Dem coalition. Customs union and all that back on the table, with a second ref.

reslfj · 26-07-2019 06:48PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Does another kind exist or need to exist?

Revoke A50 - I guess

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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