Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation wrote: »

He really is the pits.

Incredible that he thinks Junker is German just based on the surname.

BonnieSituation wrote: »

And yet people will come on here and insist we need to compromise.

I want someone just once to ask them what exactly is wrong with the backstop and do they know what it's for!

It never happens!

They believe it will keep them "trapped" in the customs union thing. Their actual aim is to go for No Deal.

murphaph wrote: »

This is probably good for us as it will completely remove any lingering ideas in EU capitals that if Ireland would only bend a bit we'd have a deal.

What evidence is there that Ireland has been under pressure of any sort from EU capitals to soften its position?

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Wondered about this earlier.

Boris is saying leave 31st but clearly he’s geared up for election.

So is the request for extension happening before that date owing to election?

Or is it out in the 31st and election after?

The Boris Plan, so far as I can make out, is this.

1. Starty off by presenting as Mr Firm-but-fair. Want an agreement. Assert loudly that you believe an agreement is possible between reasonable fair-minded chaps. Say you are prepared to exit without a deal if you are compelled to, but really see no reason why that should be necessary.

2. At the same time continue to reject the agreement already negotiated, and make sure that any alternatives you talk about are such as cannot possibly be accepted by the EU.

3. Object here is to position the EU as intransigent.

4. Just in time for the party conference in September, announce that you have regretfully concluded that, due to continued EU intransigence, a deal will not be possible. UK has no option but to honour the Will of the People by exiting without a deal. Deliver "blood sweat toil and tears" speach to hysterically cheering party faithful. Follow up with public ready-for-no-deal campaign advising people to stockpile medicines, dig for victory, be alert not alarmed, that kind of thing. If this doesn't work, deliver Sportpalast speech.

5. What do I mean, "If this doesn't work?". This is where the plan gets a bit risky. Crucial to the Boris plan is that the UK should not actually leave without a deal, since that would certainly destroy him, probably destroy the Tory party and possibly destroy the Union. So he needs to spook Parliament into stopping him. As we know, the Tory remainers are a pretty spineless bunch who shy away, in the end, from actually taking effective steps to stop a no-deal Brexit, so he needs to ramp up the horrors in order to stiffen their spines and get them actually to act. At the same time he needs to appear to be solidly committed to no-deal himself. So it's a "stop me before I kill again!" strategy.

6. Right. If the strategy works, Parliament stops Boris from taking the UK out of the EU without a deal.

7. Boris has now positioned himself as Mr Will-of-the-People No-Deal Brexit, who is being opposed by the twin forces of (a) brutal oppressive jackbooted intransigent unelected bureaucrats of Brussels, and (b) undemocratic elitist remainers in Parliament. This is where he wants to be.

8. Boris seeks a general election, in order to secure a mandate from the people for his Brexit policy. He seeks (and will certainly get) a further extension from the EU to allow the GE to be conducted and any new government to enter into office.

9. Having positioned himself as he has, he hopes either (a) to see off the Brexit Party - why vote for Farage when you have Boris? - or (b) to form an electoral alliance with them. At the same time the opposition is in a disunited, parlous condition. In these conditions, Boris thinks he has a fair chance of being returned with a secure majority, even on what might be as little as 35% of the vote.

10. If this works, and Borish gets a secure majority, what then? I think at this point Boris goes back to being Mr Firm-but-fair and says he will give the EU one more chance at a negotiated deal. But this time, maybe, he puts forward alternatives which the EU can accept. Most obviously, with the DUP back to honking forlornly into the void at the margins of Westminster politics, he can demand the NI-only backstop that he knows is the preference of the EU (and of NI, of course). The EU will of course accept. Boris probably has the skills to get away with presenting this as a victory. The UK then leaves the EU on a deal not that different from May's deal. Brexit has happened, the Brexit party is effectively neutralised, the public heaves a great sigh of relief and resolves never to speak of the matter again, and Boris has a 5-year term as PM. The long slow grind of planning and executing the UK's post-Brexit future on a harm minimisation basis begins under the day-to-day management of Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove, while Boris goes back to doing what he does best - bluster, bloviation, the spawning of unacknowledged offspring and hanging about on zipwires.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Interesting. There already seems to be a schism in the Brexiter wing of the party with Steve Baker apparently having turned down a ministerial role.

https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1154465833113927680

Baker cites powerlessness but the cynic in me reckons he is distancing himself from the inevitable disaster of a no deal Brexit.

Owen Bennett suggested he wanted a bigger role.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/15-things-dominic-cummings-tory-mps

Anyone who seen the channel 4 show with Sherlock Holmes will know how much Cummings loathes the ERG mob so its going to be interesting to see how he handles them.

BUzzfeed link some of his comments on them.

Those of you in the narcissist-delusional subset of the ERG who have spent the last three years scrambling for the 810 Today slot while spouting gibberish about trade and the law across SW1 — i.e exactly the contemptible behaviour that led to your enforced marginalisation during the referendum and your attempt to destroy Vote Leave — you are also in the pirate category.

Bit cynical wrote: »

He said Här Juncker in the bunker. The Luxembourgish Här sounds very similar to the German Herr which is the reason I think some of us are getting confused.

Sounds identical to Herr to me

Note. The audio doesn't play for me properly if I play on the browser. If it opens in twitter it plays properly (might be just me though).

If he meant Här for Luxembourg what does the bunker bit refer to?

https://twitter.com/cliodiaspora/status/1154522392041009152?s=09

Bit cynical wrote: »

He said Här Juncker in the bunker. The Luxembourgish Här sounds very similar to the German Herr which is the reason I think some of us are getting confused.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

I'm not going to get at Juncker here but to be accurate, although Juncker is from Luxembourg, German is one of the official languages so he might well have been addressed as Herr Juncker. Also, although he was born after the war, his father served in the German army in the Second World War. Doesn't make him a Nazi, of course, but it might be part of the reason for Francois' remarks.

He said Herr, he thinks he's German, trying to pretend francois isnt an odious racist little troll obsessed with past British glories is really just pathetic

Its Mark Francois.

Har, Herr. You are putting far too much nuance onto it.

The man has a serious issue with Germans, Germany, WWII and the rest. Juncker sounds German, he runs the EU and therefore is part of the Franco-German axis of power.

Leroy42 wrote: »

Its Mark Francois.

Har, Herr. You are putting far too much nuance onto it.

The man has a serious issue with Germans, Germany, WWII and the rest. Juncker sounds German, he runs the EU and therefore is part of the Franco-German axis of power.

Takes some amount of mental gymnastics and self delusion to convince yourself that Mark Francois said and meant anything other than what he quite plainly said. The man does not have levels. He is what it says on the tin.

France's reply to Johnson is brilliant, sorry no renegotiation of deal, but if you want to meet to have a chat about what happens after you leave fine. That's a nonchalant reply to all Johnson's bombastic we're leaving on 31st October, one way or another! France: Ok, see ya, what's next for us.

https://reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1UL0DH?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A%2BTrending%2BContent&utm_content=5d3ab1f0ba8d0400013c7240&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

I'd recommend Tim Shipman's books especially All Out War which was the story up to the Brexit referendum. He has a very very good insight into the Tory Party , the effects of Cummings in particular is required reading at this point


( Can't stand shipman's politics at the mo, hes gone away from being unbiased to hard brexiter ), however the books are very very good indeed.

For Forks Sake wrote: »

You are crediting Francois with a far higher level of thought than he possesses.

You leave Mark alone. He's my new hero:

Mark Francois: “If there were any attempt to revive the withdrawal agreement, even without the backstop, the ERG would vote against it.”

Kirsty Wark: “Hang on, any attempt to revive without the backstop, you would still vote against it? So you’re holding Boris Johnson’s feet to the fire already?”

Mark Francois: “He said many times during the campaign that the withdrawal agreement is dead. I believe him.”

Followup re above

see THIS extract from Shipman's book and the cautionary note from the tweeter

https://twitter.com/AdamDyster/status/1154160384342974464

trellheim wrote: »

Followup re above

see THIS extract from Shipman's book and the cautionary note from the tweeter

https://twitter.com/AdamDyster/status/1154160384342974464

So he wants to blow up the civil service? That is the British civil service which is the envy of the world, he thinks they need an overhaul. Good thing he is not in a position of power then.