Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

54and56 · 23-07-2019 09:54PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If he throws the DUP under the bus , he could very well deliver Brexit with a deal. However in doing so he loses his majority and then there's a GE that he might struggle to win.

I can see Boris doing the following:-

1. "Honeymoon" period with no HoC sitting where he woo's all Brexiteers with his "Do or Die" by Oct 31st mantra.
2. Some meetings in Europe with Merkel, Macron, Barnier and possibly Varadkar where he blusters about how he has new proposals and they are being well received etc etc (total BS).
3. As Oct 31st approaches and there's no sign of a new deal some language is inserted into the political declaration about how the Backstop will be temporary (already stated) and completely replaced as soon as the alternative arrangements BJ has proposed can be shown to work. More blustering and can do statements by BJ that this is in fact a victory.
4. The WA as it stands with a tweaked political declaration is voted through the HoC with Labour Leavers supporting but the very hardest of the ERG (those who never voted for it i.e. Baker, Francois, Bridgen etc along with DUP not and crying betrayal.
5. GE is called and with Brexit "delivered", the Brexit Party's bubble burst, remain cheerleaders the Lib Dems without a cause and Corbyn still leading the LP Boris spins a fantastic story about how he will make a success of Brexit and the UK will regain it's place in the world with Trump jumping in to endorse Boris blah blah blah the Tories go from being on their death bed to winning an outright majority.

That's what my tea leaves are telling me anyway!!

First Up · 23-07-2019 09:54PM

NapoleonInRags wrote:

I can't see how this is possible. If he sells the DUP down the Swanee he will also lose a share of ERG/hardline Brexiteer votes. How could he possibly make the numbers work in such a scenario?

It is about the arithmetic but there are enough votes that can be lured across the House floor to compensate for both the DUP and ERG.

Besides even an unpalatable choice gets swallowed when its the best available. "The art of the possible" and all that. That applies to the ERG too.

trellheim · 23-07-2019 10:03PM

4. The WA as it stands with a tweaked political declaration is voted through the HoC with Labour Leavers supporting but the very hardest of the ERG (those who never voted for it i.e. Baker, Francois, Bridgen etc along with DUP not and crying betrayal.

where ya gonna get the numbers , a tweaked PD has failed twice/three times now ?

J Mysterio · 23-07-2019 10:09PM

Micheál Martin has been quite forthright on Boris now also.

Boris Johnson’s impending appointment as prime minister “raises enormous fears” for the future of Anglo-Irish relations and British policy towards Northern Ireland, Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin has said.

In pointed remarks delivered at the MacGill summer school in Glenties, Co Donegal, Mr Martin suggested Mr Johnson had failed to impress Irish officials and politicians in his most recent cabinet posting.

“Anyone in Dublin who met (Mr Johnson) during his time as foreign secretary will tell you the many ways in which he failed to show the slightest level of understanding about the operations of the Good Friday Agreement or the deep problems raised by Brexit. ”

Mr Martin raised doubts about the conservative leader’s knowledge of Northern Irish issues. “It is clear that he is single minded in his ambition, but I don’t think anyone can credibly say that he has thought through how to promote prosperity and reconciliation in Northern Ireland.”

Irish Times

BorneTobyWilde · 23-07-2019 10:36PM

Can Boris Johnson run for President of the United States if he wants ?

A Shropshire Lad · 23-07-2019 10:39PM

Many in the Tory party, particulary on the brexiteer side, would have a very black and white view towards Northern Ireland, and Ireland in general.

Once, when Boris was mayor of London, he was invited to a Saint Patricks day event at the Irish Embassy in London. He declined the offer stating that it was probably a fundraiser for 'Republicans' in NI.

BobbyBobberson · 23-07-2019 10:40PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Can Boris Johnson run for President of the United States if he wants ?

Renounced his citizenship to lighten the tax bill.

BobbyBobberson · 23-07-2019 10:41PM

Anyone watching newsnight? Priti Patel tipped to be home secretary which will be something to say the least.

Ben Done · 23-07-2019 10:45PM

Newsnight reporting Priti Patel to be Home Secretary.

Might be time to stock up the larder - she has threatened to starve us out of it in order to make us bend to the UK's will on Brexit.

Tell me how · 23-07-2019 10:45PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Anyone watching newsnight? Priti Patel tipped to be home secretary which will be something to say the least.

Not watching newsnight but heard Sajid, Davis, Raab, McVey, Patel mentioned as potential cabinet members.

I wouldn't trust the radio in that room!

BobbyBobberson · 23-07-2019 10:45PM

Some more info on possible cabinet.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1153777537803313159

BorneTobyWilde · 23-07-2019 10:46PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Anyone watching newsnight? Priti Patel tipped to be home secretary which will be something to say the least.

She must have dirt on him.

Tell me how · 23-07-2019 10:48PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

She must have dirt on him.

She's pro-Brexit.

That's the only requirement to be considered for a cabinet position at the moment.

Strazdas · 23-07-2019 10:56PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Some more info on possible cabinet.

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1153777537803313159

Swinford adds that Gove is in line for a big job :

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1153779352531869696

Roger_007 · 23-07-2019 10:58PM

Tell me how wrote: »

She's pro-Brexit.

That's the only requirement to be considered for a cabinet position at the moment.

She is also a woman. Boris has to appoint women to some of the top jobs....so Priti is a shoo-in for a prominent position.

54and56 · 23-07-2019 10:59PM

trellheim wrote: »

where ya gonna get the numbers , a tweaked PD has failed twice/three times now ?

Correct but the majority against declined each time and if the same deal is presented in different packaging with a Boris bow on top having been seen to try to change the WA but blaming TM for making any change impossible and add a good dose of additional Brexit fatigue on top and I'll bet it squeezes through.

careless sherpa · 23-07-2019 11:49PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't think he's throwing the DUP under a bus as he's soon going to have a majority of just 2, including them. And soon there will be negotiations with the DUP over the next phase of their confidence-and-supply deal. According to Beth Rigby, a source told her the DUP will be getting more cash:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1153676117489934336

The DUP don't want no deal. Their ideal scenario would be for the Irish government to be seen to back down and swallow pride. I think with that in mind they will urge Johnson to go all out for a time limit on the backstop. I listened to Bertie Ahern's recent interview with Dunphy and he seemed to be advocating for the government to compromise in this way.

Johnson's speech to the Commons outlining his plan for Brexit will be very interesting. If he indicates he will go for a time limit or unilateral exit from the backstop then that suggests the DUP's influence is being felt. I think if the DUP are happy with what they hear, the ERG will go along with it.

Then the pressure will come on our government from the DUP and Tories to consent to some sort of time limit. Varadkar will then have to make the call whether he will be willing to accept such a thing, or whether it would bring down his own government were he to do so. I'm not sure what he will do.

I don't like the idea of a time limit as it seems to assume that 5/7/10 years down the line Britain will be in a more stable and sensible state and may have a different perspective. I'm not sure that will be the case as the evidence since 2016 doesn't paint that picture.

My sense is Johnson will fail to get anywhere just like May and will resort to a general election rather than crash out without a deal. But who knows!

There is no way the Irish government can accept a time limit. They have been quite clear on multiple occasions that it is unacceptable. That and the fact that having a time limit on it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. How could a government agree to something that makes no sense. It would end the careers of numerous politicians and would be extremely detrimental to the political stability of the country.

trellheim · 23-07-2019 11:54PM

54&56 wrote: »

Correct but the majority against declined each time and if the same deal is presented in different packaging with a Boris bow on top having been seen to try to change the WA but blaming TM for making any change impossible and add a good dose of additional Brexit fatigue on top and I'll bet it squeezes through.

from your mouth to God's ears but I dont think so

Edit : Priti fking Patel is a trainwreck of epic proportions that woman should not be let near cabinet, bet Thatcher spins in her grave if she gets a big 4

Shelga · 23-07-2019 11:54PM

When are the cabinet members announced?

Capt'n Midnight · 23-07-2019 11:55PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So lads Jim Hacker or Boris Johnson ?

Hacker wasn't a complete Mé Féiner

Boris will do a bit of reshuffling but what is the talent pool like ?

"It used to be said there were two kinds of chairs to go with two kinds of Ministers: one sort that folds up instantly, the other sort goes round and round in circles."
- Yes Minister, pilot episode.

If Boris rejects those who didn't support him there won't be much wiggle room in choosing a new cabinet.
From Yes Minister, Episode 3 1980

But they are the people's representatives, democratically chosen.

MP's aren't chosen by the people, but by their local party.
35 men in grubby raincoats or 35 women in silly hats.

But the government are selected from the best of them.

Bernard, there are only 630 MP's.
If one party has just over 300 it forms a government. Of that 300, one
hundred are too old and too silly, one hundred too young and too callow
which leaves just about a hundred MP's to fill one hundred governmental
posts.
There's no choice at all. They've had no selection, no training.

LOTS of ministers resigned under May

Tell me how · 23-07-2019 11:56PM

Shelga wrote: »

When are the cabinet members announced?

By 22:00 tomorrow apparently but I expect all journalists to be announcing of sorts from mid-afternoon if not earlier.

Tell me how · 23-07-2019 11:57PM

Boris has a clear and emphatic mandate to deliver Brexit apparently.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1153680557525651457

From 96K people out of a population of 70M odd.

Enzokk · 23-07-2019 11:59PM

Ben Done wrote: »

Newsnight reporting Priti Patel to be Home Secretary.

Might be time to stock up the larder - she has threatened to starve us out of it in order to make us bend to the UK's will on Brexit.

He is scraping the barrel, but at least there will be no more excuses as we have a Brexiteer in charge and hopefully his cabinet will be full of the likes of Patel and Dorries and if possible Rees-Mogg as well. It is time for those advocating to leave to own Brexit and to own the consequences.

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1153641363818332160?s=20

Something will be negotiated, don't know what but Johnson will do it. We are in for interesting times.

Rjd2 · 24-07-2019 12:39AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Anyone watching newsnight? Priti Patel tipped to be home secretary which will be something to say the least.

Not a surprise, hugely popular with the grassroots is Patel.

Watch Newsnight now and then. Ignore echo chamber lefties or righties who say Matliss is unfair to their team, took Mc Donnell and Cleverly apart tonight very easily. She's very impressive.

woohoo!!! · 24-07-2019 06:48AM

Positivity and spin, that's what he has in spades. Farage and the BP have got by with something similar despite having zero policies. Boris is not a details man, he's a shoot from the hip yada yada. He has built a huge following amongst Tory members. My feeling is that he'll bluff and bluster, and call a snap GE. It's a risk etc but the numbers in HoC dictate reality. Labour are a mess, his job is to neutralise Brexit Party and get in. His priority is power And he'll do whatever it takes to consolidate this. The short time remaining and the Brexit bubble means that no deal is almost a certainty besides not even Boris can shift his Oct 31st declaration. The UK can go down the tubes but the priority is Boris and the Tories, they've pitched their tent on the EU blinking which isn't happening.

Edit: in short Boris is hoping that the EU will do a deal to save the Tories. A short pause for reflection will reveal the ludicrous notion of such, the EU loathes the Tories, the authors of the whole mess

splinter65 · 24-07-2019 07:30AM

No insults please.

Patser · 24-07-2019 07:38AM

I simply cannot believe the way he posed outside Downing St for photographers. It's on the front of most UK papers today, RTE have it top of their news page, the mixed up Dad's army salute with a mixed up thumbs up as well.

It's beyond parody, it's just mind boggling, that at a time of such national insecurity millions of people wake up to that image of the man now chosen to lead them and a large percentage are delighted.

Link below to BBC newspaper section, and you'll see a gallery of it

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-49092664

Professor Moriarty · 24-07-2019 09:21AM

Patser wrote: »

I simply cannot believe the way he posed outside Downing St for photographers. It's on the front of most UK papers today, RTE have it top of their news page, the mixed up Dad's army salute with a mixed up thumbs up as well.

It's beyond parody, it's just mind boggling, that at a time of such national insecurity millions of people wake up to that image of the man now chosen to lead them and a large percentage are delighted.

Link below to BBC newspaper section, and you'll see a gallery of it

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-the-papers-49092664

I thought the salute made him look like Benny Hil.

BobbyBobberson · 24-07-2019 09:28AM

Wow - Dominic Cummings tipped to be senior advisor or chief of staff today. Sam Coates and Laura K both have it on twitter.

Patser · 24-07-2019 09:33AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I thought the salute made him look like Benny Hil.

Bingo, that's exactly who he looks like. Head pulled in to neck, poor salute, all that's missing is the tongue sticking out.

Boris is a caricature of a politician, a made up eccentric cartoon character, who has never had any clear vision and instead runs to the front of whatever way the crowd is looking. For all his political career he has little to point back at and say I done that - instead it's just photo ops or video clips of him being goofy. And somehow he's magically forgiven for the mess ups that happened while he held responsibility - the waste on the London garden bridge for example.

And here he is, suddenly leading his nation, on promises of day dreams and hope while an absolute, intricate, detail laden deal needs to be done.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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