Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

A Shropshire Lad · 23-07-2019 07:07PM

Shortest serving PM on the cards I reckon

Hes got a parlamentary majority of 2, for the moment

lawred2 · 23-07-2019 07:24PM

So who has actually jumped the Tory ship so far?

20silkcut · 23-07-2019 07:38PM

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

Shortest serving PM on the cards I reckon

Hes got a parlamentary majority of 2, for the moment

For a clever cunning politician with no morals or ideals he has a few cards left to play on brexit. In fairness despite everything it is a fairly plum job being PM of the fifth largest economy in the world.
As serfboard says it will be interesting to see what moves he makes.
His ultimate goal now is to stay in No 10 for as long as possible. Power will seduce an ego like his. Everyone knows that he has to adjust his current stated position and adopt a hint of pragmatism to do that. It’s a case of what gets thrown under which bus.
I mean someone like Dominic Raab truly would be the shortest serving PM in history. I reckon Boris will avoid that accolade. It’s an easier ask than becoming PM in the first place IMO.
Of course I’d love to be wrong on all this.

Quin_Dub · 23-07-2019 07:55PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Border in the sea. He’ll make this happen and sell it to all as the way forward. Backstop then is totally unnecessary.
He gets to look like a hero for delivering brexit and they leave with the agreement on the table.
Happily ever after for everyone except the DUP

Whether or not he goes for "Border in the Irish Sea" depends a lot on what is more important to him.

Delivering Brexit or remaining in power? - I'm not altogether certain he can do both.

If he throws the DUP under the bus , he could very well deliver Brexit with a deal. However in doing so he loses his majority and then there's a GE that he might struggle to win.`

The only pathway for him is if he delivers Brexit via an Irish sea border (and absent changing the red lines there really isn't another way) then he has to hope that that fatally punctures any support for Farage and his cohort of "to be named later" GE candidates.

With FPTP and the Labour party in endless chaos that might just be enough to get him over the line..

However if the Lib Dems show up well , then it's probably a hung parliament and the Tories are out as no one will partner with them.

Professor Moriarty · 23-07-2019 07:58PM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Same old same old from Bo Johnson

I suspect he will end up p1ssing off all sides

Firing squad from all angles (metaphor).

Resign while talking scutter

Get plenty of lucrative Board memberships from Tory England and republican America.

Job done for Boris.

He got €60,000 plus travel for a one hour speech in Dublin last January.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-07-2019 08:04PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Whether or not he goes for "Border in the Irish Sea" depends a lot on what is more important to him.

Delivering Brexit or remaining in power? - I'm not altogether certain he can do both.

If he throws the DUP under the bus , he could very well deliver Brexit with a deal. However in doing so he loses his majority and then there's a GE that he might struggle to win.`

The only pathway for him is if he delivers Brexit via an Irish sea border (and absent changing the red lines there really isn't another way) then he has to hope that that fatally punctures any support for Farage and his cohort of "to be named later" GE candidates.

With FPTP and the Labour party in endless chaos that might just be enough to get him over the line..

However if the Lib Dems show up well , then it's probably a hung parliament and the Tories are out as no one will partner with them.

He’s got support from a lot of MPs from all parties if he drops the no deal idea. He’s already cannibalised the brexit party numbers but if he delivers brexit by doing the border in the sea, he’ll be safe enough in any GE I’d reckon

No significant number in HOC want no deal. They’ll all row in behind a deal if the many MPs all parties I’ve been listening to the past few days are any guide.
They’ll redo the PD and border in the sea. Plain sailing.

Flip side, there might be so many defections, Lib Dem’s and SNP and greens form an alliance and take over and drop the whole thing with the promise of a possible rerun of the referendum as a condition to alliance. But one where everyone is far better informed you’d hope

Spanish Eyes · 23-07-2019 08:22PM

Problem is I don't really think anyone wants to leave the EU on a No Deal basis anymore.

It was a cat call against the Brexit Party.

I bet the UK Government would love to stay in now. But they cannot really.

So it is stopping the Red Lines now. And he will do it. And be hailed for it. They don't care about NI anyway.

But we will all be happy with that. Hopefully that is where he will go.

Itssoeasy · 23-07-2019 08:32PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Border in the sea. He’ll make this happen and sell it to all as the way forward. Backstop then is totally unnecessary.
He gets to look like a hero for delivering brexit and they leave with the agreement on the table.
Happily ever after for everyone except the DUP

Whether or not he goes for "Border in the Irish Sea" depends a lot on what is more important to him.

Delivering Brexit or remaining in power? - I'm not altogether certain he can do both.

If he throws the DUP under the bus , he could very well deliver Brexit with a deal. However in doing so he loses his majority and then there's a GE that he might struggle to win.`

The only pathway for him is if he delivers Brexit via an Irish sea border (and absent changing the red lines there really isn't another way) then he has to hope that that fatally punctures any support for Farage and his cohort of "to be named later" GE candidates.

With FPTP and the Labour party in endless chaos that might just be enough to get him over the line..

However if the Lib Dems show up well , then it's probably a hung parliament and the Tories are out as no one will partner with them.

So you think the good showing in the local elections and a new leader will continue the momentum they have again ?

BluePlanet · 23-07-2019 08:36PM

I can't see him, nor most Tories throwing the DUP under the bus.
There's a old tribal loyalty at play there and there is no way they'll give us a win over them.

trellheim · 23-07-2019 08:36PM

“It’s the arrogance. It’s the contempt. That’s what gets me. It’s Gordon Brown’s apparent belief that he can just trample on the democratic will of the British people. It’s at moments like this that I think the political world has gone mad, and I am alone in detecting the gigantic fraud.”

"They voted for Anthony Charles Lynton Blair to serve as their leader. They were at no stage invited to vote on whether Gordon Brown should be PM… They voted for Tony, and yet they now get Gordon, and a transition about as democratically proper as the transition from Claudius to Nero. It is a scandal. Why are we all conniving in this stitch-up? This is nothing less than a palace coup… with North Korean servility, the Labour Party has handed power over to the brooding Scottish power-maniac.”

"The extraordinary thing is that it looks as though he will now be in 10 Downing Street for three years, and without a mandate from the British people. No one elected Gordon Brown as Prime Minister…”

“Gordon Brown could appease public indignation over that, and secure the democratic mandate he needs, by asking the public to vote at once on him, on the new EU treaty, and on the implications of the devolutionary settlement. Let’s have an election without delay

Boris Johnson on Gordon Brown's accession to PM in 2007.

trellheim · 23-07-2019 08:53PM

Twitter reporting that David Frost will be the EU sherpa

here's some old interview
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-advisor-david-frost-whole-industries-could-be-destroyed-by-hard-brexit-article-50-2016-10?r=US&IR=T

a norway type eh ? From 2016. If still this position then red lines are shifting

He wrote in a Telegraph article in June that Brexit would be "our most complex negotiation ever," and warned that "we can't afford to get it wrong."

Frost called for a positive approach to negotiations, and suggested that the UK to adopt a Norway-style transitional arrangement. In that scenario, the UK would remain in the European single market, a free trade agreement between EU countries.

He said: "We should say that we intend, after exit, to retain this status for say five years and to use that period to reflect and if necessary negotiate a Free Trade Agreement like Canada's, if that is what we want to do, or to keep Norway status if we don't."

Beechwoodspark · 23-07-2019 08:54PM

David Frost?!?

Ohhhh

Not THE David frost !!

Mr.Nice Guy · 23-07-2019 08:56PM

I don't think he's throwing the DUP under a bus as he's soon going to have a majority of just 2, including them. And soon there will be negotiations with the DUP over the next phase of their confidence-and-supply deal. According to Beth Rigby, a source told her the DUP will be getting more cash:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1153676117489934336

The DUP don't want no deal. Their ideal scenario would be for the Irish government to be seen to back down and swallow pride. I think with that in mind they will urge Johnson to go all out for a time limit on the backstop. I listened to Bertie Ahern's recent interview with Dunphy and he seemed to be advocating for the government to compromise in this way.

Johnson's speech to the Commons outlining his plan for Brexit will be very interesting. If he indicates he will go for a time limit or unilateral exit from the backstop then that suggests the DUP's influence is being felt. I think if the DUP are happy with what they hear, the ERG will go along with it.

Then the pressure will come on our government from the DUP and Tories to consent to some sort of time limit. Varadkar will then have to make the call whether he will be willing to accept such a thing, or whether it would bring down his own government were he to do so. I'm not sure what he will do.

I don't like the idea of a time limit as it seems to assume that 5/7/10 years down the line Britain will be in a more stable and sensible state and may have a different perspective. I'm not sure that will be the case as the evidence since 2016 doesn't paint that picture.

My sense is Johnson will fail to get anywhere just like May and will resort to a general election rather than crash out without a deal. But who knows!

trellheim · 23-07-2019 09:00PM

exactly my view as well I do think it would lead to an immediate GE here though if there is any cave in. Its a national govt for a reason on this issue

Stop moaning ffs · 23-07-2019 09:04PM

Look over at the onslaught Leo’s getting just this evening for the mishandling of the Bailey scenario, the cyncical timing of its release(today To bury it under the Boris story).

No way he’ll cave. He can’t anyway. Eu call the shots not ireland.

First Up · 23-07-2019 09:06PM

BluePlanet wrote:

I can't see him, nor most Tories throwing the DUP under the bus. There's a old tribal loyalty at play there and there is no way they'll give us a win over them.

I doubt Boris suffers much from tribal loyalty; there are bigger prizes in play.

The only question is the HoC arithmetic. I'd give him a better chance than May of horsetrading his way to enough cross party support to make the DUP votes redundant and get them out on Oct 31. A win for Boris.

He'll then go to the country and given that Corbyn is un-electable, the odds are good they'll get back in. A win for Boris and the Torys.

The DUP will throw a fit but it keeps them in the UK and the North will come out of it well (best of both worlds.) A win for business, agriculture and common sense.

Technology can be applied at ports between Britain and Ireland and Ireland and the continent to provide enough scrutiny to preserve the Single Market. A win for everyone.

That's the solution; he just has to deliver it.

Professor Moriarty · 23-07-2019 09:07PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I don't think he's throwing the DUP under a bus as he's soon going to have a majority of just 2, including them. And soon there will be negotiations with the DUP over the next phase of their confidence-and-supply deal. According to Beth Rigby, a source told her the DUP will be getting more cash:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1153676117489934336

The DUP don't want no deal. Their ideal scenario would be for the Irish government to be seen to back down and swallow pride. I think with that in mind they will urge Johnson to go all out for a time limit on the backstop. I listened to Bertie Ahern's recent interview with Dunphy and he seemed to be advocating for the government to compromise in this way.

Johnson's speech to the Commons outlining his plan for Brexit will be very interesting. If he indicates he will go for a time limit or unilateral exit from the backstop then that suggests the DUP's influence is being felt. I think if the DUP are happy with what they hear, the ERG will go along with it.

Then the pressure will come on our government from the DUP and Tories to consent to some sort of time limit. Varadkar will then have to make the call whether he will be willing to accept such a thing, or whether it would bring down his own government were he to do so. I'm not sure what he will do.

I don't like the idea of a time limit as it seems to assume that 5/7/10 years down the line Britain will be in a more stable and sensible state and may have a different perspective. I'm not sure that will be the case as the evidence since 2016 doesn't paint that picture.

My sense is Johnson will fail to get anywhere just like May and will resort to a general election rather than crash out without a deal. But who knows!

I'm afraid that ship has sailed. Johnson categorically stated that "the backstop must come out" and dismissed accepting it even with a time limit or an exit clause:

“No to time limits or unilateral escape hatches or all these elaborate devices, glosses, codicils and so on that you could apply to the backstop.”

Mind you, he's a liar so who knows.

lawred2 · 23-07-2019 09:10PM

Is it within our gift to accept time limits on a backstop anyway?

trellheim · 23-07-2019 09:12PM

I'm afraid that ship has sailed. Johnson categorically stated that "the backstop must come out" and dismissed accepting it even with a time limit or an exit clause:

“No to time limits or unilateral escape hatches or all these elaborate devices, glosses, codicils and so on that you could apply to the backstop.”

As someone once said that was any oul muck you put up to get you elected, now you have to govern ( if you didnt believe otherwise, remember hes been fired twice for lying)

he cant be done in a 1922 committee leadership vote for a year so the only thing that can bring him down is a vote of no confidence, GE and a different party getting into power

Professor Moriarty · 23-07-2019 09:14PM

trellheim wrote: »

As someone once said that was any oul muck you put up to get you elected, now you have to govern

he cant be done in a 1922 committee leadership vote for a year so the only thing that can bring him down is a vote of no confidence, GE and a different party getting into power

Campaign in poetry and govern in prose.

Stop moaning ffs · 23-07-2019 09:16PM

lawred2 wrote: »

Is it within our gift to accept time limits on a backstop anyway?

It is not.
Although we insisted on it it became a bigger issue the Eu realising we could be used as a backdoor into Europe. That’s without border violence supply line disruption etc being taken into account.

They won’t ‘cave’ on the backstop. I wish people would stop banging on about that. It’s not going to happen. Not you op. Just generally.

A Shropshire Lad · 23-07-2019 09:20PM

I cant wait to see the Cabinet Boris assembles.

Gove as Northern Ireland secretary would be interesting seeing as what his views were about the Good Friday Agreement

johnnyskeleton · 23-07-2019 09:21PM

I wonder if he would offer the SNP a further independence vote in exchange for backing no deal. Then reneging after no deal is done?

trellheim · 23-07-2019 09:26PM

I cant wait to see the Cabinet Boris assembles.

You can hum the fking Avengers Assemble if you want but it will be clowns running into the ring no matter what way you look at it.

reslfj · 23-07-2019 09:28PM

The Federation of German Industries (BDI): On the Decision of the British Conservatives to Appoint Boris Johnson as Party Leader:
"Threats from London are Harmful and Will Come Back Like a Boomerang"

https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/bdi-on-the-decision-of-the-british-conservatives-to-appoint-boris-johnson-as-party-leader-threats-from-london-are-harmful-and-will-come-back-like-a-boomerang--812518860.html

But maybe more importantly:
"The withdrawal agreement must not be renegotiated."

Lars

PS! PS! BDI is organising the German auto industry via "German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA)"

McGiver · 23-07-2019 09:32PM

Folks, this is a spectacular drama. I see it basically like this.

With May we have had a very slow train on a one-way track almost crashing until the last moment, steady slow motion.
'This lady wasn't for turning' Brexit

With Johnson we're going to get a Porsche car crash at 250 kph, probably accompanied by an explosion of the said car and fireworks of the wrecked car parts, it will be quick and spectacular.
'Do or die' Brexit

Professor Moriarty · 23-07-2019 09:32PM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

I wonder if he would offer the SNP a further independence vote in exchange for backing no deal. Then reneging after no deal is done?

Zero chance of that happening. The SNP would lose all credibility as a party of principle. So would Johnson and the Tories, if they had any to begin with.

Itssoeasy · 23-07-2019 09:33PM

So lads Jim Hacker or Boris Johnson ?

NapoleonInRags · 23-07-2019 09:46PM

First Up wrote: »

I doubt Boris suffers much from tribal loyalty; there are bigger prizes in play.

The only question is the HoC arithmetic. I'd give him a better chance than May of horsetrading his way to enough cross party support to make the DUP votes redundant and get them out on Oct 31. A win for Boris.

He'll then go to the country and given that Corbyn is un-electable, the odds are good they'll get back in. A win for Boris and the Torys.

The DUP will throw a fit but it keeps them in the UK and the North will come out of it well (best of both worlds.) A win for business, agriculture and common sense.

Technology can be applied at ports between Britain and Ireland and Ireland and the continent to provide enough scrutiny to preserve the Single Market. A win for everyone.

That's the solution; he just has to deliver it.

I can't see how this is possible. If he sells the DUP down the Swanee he will also lose a share of ERG/hardline Brexiteer votes. How could he possibly make the numbers work in such a scenario?

Thargor · 23-07-2019 09:53PM

Enzokk wrote: »

There has been discussion on the Panorama program on Brexit in the previous pages, just wanted to link to it on Youtube for those that missed it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LG-CeYzxvw

This is brilliant thanks, surprised at this realistic tone from the BBC.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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