Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Stop moaning ffs · 18-07-2019 08:19AM

Did anyone catch the final hustings last night?
Jesus wept it was bad. Johnson is the living definition of empty vessel blow hard.
How are people falling for this?
You want a guy who just manages to make you chuckle as your leader? He has no other skills. He’s the loud mouth in the pub you always avoid.
Hunt is slightly less deluded. In any other scenario I’d say he’d be a good PM.
He was given some hard questions from the audience and handled them reasonably well.

Johnson though. In a way he’s the exactly perfect PM for this scenario. Appalling.
You think it can’t get more bizarre and grim on the surface of it and then he opens his mouth and it’s soundbyte bingo.
I despair for all the sane people in the uk but at this stage I want them to fall out hard and with him at the helm blaming everyone else. Because of course he will.
I will never understand how people are falling for this absolute chancer.

BonnieSituation · 18-07-2019 08:25AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

[HTML][/HTML]
No, it's different. In Ireland, a Taoiseach isn't appointed by the President until after he has been approved by a majority vote in Dail Eireann. Varadkar only secured 57 votes in favour, but there were only 50 against. This means that everybody in Dail Eireann had to take a position on whether he should be Taoiseach before he could be appointed. That position could be "yes" or "no" or "I won't obstruct his appointment", but each TD had to nail his colours to one of these masts.

Whereas in the UK a PM becomes PM immediately on kissing hands, and he remains PM unless and until he loses the confidence of the House. Nobody in the House is required to take any position on whether he should be PM or not until the question is raised. On the one hand, this gives his opponents the tactical advantage of choosing when to raise the question. On the other hand, this gives him the considerable power of being PM unless and until the question is raised.

Thank you.

Said with more eloquence and patience than I possess.

jem · 18-07-2019 10:01AM

I actually think at this stage ( and I hope Im wrong) that it will be no-deal crash out Brexit in October.
The anti-no deal & remainers cant seem to get their act together it always seems to be the "wrong Time" to put a stop on the crashout and while I think they will try I have a feeling that they will leave it too late and fail.

murphaph · 18-07-2019 10:12AM

The fact that the UK is not willing to get rid of daylight savings when the rest of the EU is (because it's fairly pointless in this day and age) shows, yet again, that they simply can't work together in the common interest. Practically speaking this is a no-brainer but because it is a "Brussels Diktat" (despite there being an open poll about it) they will push back. Sorry state of affairs really.

Enzokk · 18-07-2019 10:39AM

I see there has been a few tweets about the UK position and what it would mean financially from JP Morgan and the OBR. Obviously it is not good but it seems they must still leave.

https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1151505924814774272?s=20

https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1151505928388272134?s=20

https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1151505931567583234?s=20

And then a thread on the OBR figures. I will just post two tweets from Faisal Islam about them.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1151773574090416133?s=20

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1151780923400232961?s=20

What a weird time to be alive, then again people in the 1930's probably felt the same way so I think we know how this will end. With a racist openly whipping up a crowd in the US (that is going to end badly) and Hunt willing to criticize Barnier for his statement that the deal on the table is the only one the UK can get but not willing to call out the racist, the UK is screwed.

Stop moaning ffs · 18-07-2019 10:41AM

You’d hope the British would wake up to this and work towards it.

Asked might there be some flexibility with the #backstop, Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar says: "It depends what that is... I can't be here negotiating over the airwaves, & I've yet to hear proposals from the new PM. It's always on the table to ONLY apply it to Northern Ireland"

Enzokk · 18-07-2019 10:57AM

There will be another attempt this afternoon in a vote to try and stop Johnson from forcing Brexit through.

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1151781713611239425?s=20

This is amendments to the Northern Ireland Bill that has gone through the House of Lords already.

Zubeneschamali · 18-07-2019 11:00AM

That stress test slide seems to show a contraction over the whole of 2020 and then recovery to Brexit day levels over 2021 and into 2022, and then growth at a faster rate than baseline predictions into 2023-24.

That strikes me as extremely optimistic - I can't see them reaching the Remain growth figures ever again (unless they rejoin), so even if growth resumes in 2021, the lines will diverge forever.

If growth outside the SM was higher than growth inside, that would suggest that everyone should put up barriers to trade to encourage trade - it makes no sense. I assume they have some "??? magic happens ???" step in the chart before growth shoots up, maybe a cake and unicorns FTA with the EU.

Enzokk · 18-07-2019 11:05AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That stress test slide seems to show a contraction over the whole of 2020 and then recovery to Brexit day levels over 2021 and into 2022, and then growth at a faster rate than baseline predictions into 2023-24.

That strikes me as extremely optimistic - I can't see them reaching the Remain growth figures ever again (unless they rejoin), so even if growth resumes in 2021, the lines will diverge forever.

If growth outside the SM was higher than growth inside, that would suggest that everyone should put up barriers to trade to encourage trade - it makes no sense. I assume they have some "??? magic happens ???" step in the chart before growth shoots up, maybe a cake and unicorns FTA with the EU.

Well it isn't the worst case scenario, and it makes the assumptions that the Bank of England will take measures to mitigate the damage. This is the same as the post Brexit vote when the BoE acted to limit the damage and so the predictions made beforehand didn't pan out.

robinph · 18-07-2019 11:07AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Each member state has the right to choose which timezone they fix to, theres no disagreement on that at all

But other than Portugal they will all be on the same timezone as otherwise it defeats the whole point of the exercise, and Portugal will only be an hour different from Spain and not two hours. They probably won't both move in opposite directions though to end up on the same time.

murphaph · 18-07-2019 11:22AM

robinph wrote: »

But other than Portugal they will all be on the same timezone as otherwise it defeats the whole point of the exercise, and Portugal will only be an hour different from Spain and not two hours. They probably won't both move in opposite directions though to end up on the same time.

The point isn't to all have the same timezone. The point is that daylight savings is itself a pointless exercise and nowadays people, if given the choice, would prefer more daylight on winter evenings than winter mornings.

It does not matter if, in the end, Spain is an hour behind Poland. The only thing the EU would prefer not to see is a patchwork of time zones. This requires especially the countries in the geographic centre of the EU to act in unison with whatever decision they take as to when to stop moving the clocks.

Christy42 · 18-07-2019 11:30AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

That stress test slide seems to show a contraction over the whole of 2020 and then recovery to Brexit day levels over 2021 and into 2022, and then growth at a faster rate than baseline predictions into 2023-24.

That strikes me as extremely optimistic - I can't see them reaching the Remain growth figures ever again (unless they rejoin), so even if growth resumes in 2021, the lines will diverge forever.

If growth outside the SM was higher than growth inside, that would suggest that everyone should put up barriers to trade to encourage trade - it makes no sense. I assume they have some "??? magic happens ???" step in the chart before growth shoots up, maybe a cake and unicorns FTA with the EU.

I am unsure of the exact assumptions used in this case but there is frequently a return to base case after a few years in all scenarios as they don't try and predict too far ahead. They are frequently just designed for the next few years.

I imagine the low starting point helps growth if they assume base levels after a few years (essentially less should be required to for higher % of growth due to the lower starting point.

boggerman1 · 18-07-2019 11:51AM

Old dear on lbc now and she wants her fish and chips back in newspapers instead of bags.rule Britannia.let them off on October 31st

Leroy42 · 18-07-2019 11:54AM

Boris cross about the EU making UK kipper post sellers include ice pillows. He will stand with the kipper sellers.

Only problem is that it has nothing to do with EU and is a UK regulation.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1151803905560469505?s=09

Headshot · 18-07-2019 12:01PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Boris cross about the EU making UK kipper post sellers include ice pillows. He will stand with the kipper sellers.

Only problem is that it has nothing to do with EU and is a UK regulation.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1151803905560469505?s=09

This completely sums up Brexit.

Lies after lies and lies

Seth Brundle · 18-07-2019 12:02PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Boris cross about the EU making UK kipper post sellers include ice pillows. He will stand with the kipper sellers.

Only problem is that it has nothing to do with EU and is a UK regulation.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/1151803905560469505?s=09

In fairness, any lies about smoked fish would not be the first time Johnson has lied about the EU's food rules.

Gerry T · 18-07-2019 12:52PM

Foghladh wrote:

Well to be fair the current Taoiseach received the direct mandate of about 3700 people, being Fine Gael members.

No, the FG party had a leader with a party manifest, the country voted on that basis. That's very different to a new leader being appointed with his own agenda being the focus.

Lackadaisical · 18-07-2019 01:09PM

Headshot wrote: »

This completely sums up Brexit.

Lies after lies and lies

Sure what does it matter they hear what they want to hear on topics like this and the EU's clarification will largely to unnoticed. That's how it's always been in the UK and Johnson is the king of Euromyths.

There's also a tendency to just say "European regulations" in response to any petty bureaucratic issue in the UK, even when they're home grown regulations.

I've actually given up on the UK at this stage. It's going to get 1000 times more difficult to communicate facts once he assumes office.

Stop moaning ffs · 18-07-2019 01:39PM

This is a great read. Then you get to this bit on the backstop and border. Dominic Raab ladies and gents.

‘"They needed a lever which put us in the wrong and them in the right, I think that's the way they saw it. [With] the Irish border there's a strong political, moral, sentimental argument... based on fiction really, but nevertheless that's how it's used."’

10 things that stopped Brexit happening
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49008826

Podge_irl · 18-07-2019 02:07PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

This is a great read. Then you get to this bit on the backstop and border. Dominic Raab ladies and gents.

‘"They needed a lever which put us in the wrong and them in the right, I think that's the way they saw it. [With] the Irish border there's a strong political, moral, sentimental argument... based on fiction really, but nevertheless that's how it's used."’

10 things that stopped Brexit happening
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49008826

That quote is Davis. It perfectly illustrates the utter lack of thought and frankly knowledge that goes into all of the UK govt's public pronouncements though. They committed to no hard border in NI for very clear, very non-fictional reasons but put absolutely no thought into what that actually meant.

Stop moaning ffs · 18-07-2019 02:12PM

Podge_irl wrote: »

That quote is Davis. It perfectly illustrates the utter lack of thought and frankly knowledge that goes into all of the UK govt's public pronouncements though. They committed to no hard border in NI for very clear, very non-fictional reasons but put absolutely no thought into what that actually meant.

My bad. Thanks.
Was too busy spitting blood fuming reading it to catch the owner
Could have been either though. They have form

traco · 18-07-2019 02:13PM

SNIP. Serious discussion only please.

Water John · 18-07-2019 02:50PM

Parliament pass an amendment to limit Johnson on his No Deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation

Passed by a margin of 41 votes, Margot James resigned as Minister to vote with it and Philip Hammond abstained.

Tell me how · 18-07-2019 02:56PM

Water John wrote: »

Parliament pass an amendment to limit Johnson on his No Deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation

Passed by a margin of 41 votes, Margot James resigned as Minister to vote with it and Philip Hammond abstained.

There was a 3 line whip in play for this vote.

Who decided to enact the whip for it? Would it still have been Theresa May. Odd that she would do so as she goes out the door. Supporting prorogation seems very much undemocratic.

FrancieBrady · 18-07-2019 03:50PM

Water John wrote: »

Parliament pass an amendment to limit Johnson on his No Deal Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation

Passed by a margin of 41 votes, Margot James resigned as Minister to vote with it and Philip Hammond abstained.

The article says the amendment is 'seeking' to block...'.

Is this one of those amendments the government can ignore, albeit with difficulty?

Leroy42 · 18-07-2019 04:05PM

My reading of Seeking is that it will only be required in the event. In addition it is not ruling it out just that it needs an vote of approval (which it wouldn't get).

Is that right?

ancapailldorcha · 18-07-2019 04:08PM

Mod: No insults please. Post deleted.

Spanish Eyes · 18-07-2019 04:44PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Old dear on lbc now and she wants her fish and chips back in newspapers instead of bags.rule Britannia.let them off on October 31st

Yes I heard it. Fascinating (well eye rolling) stuff. But then again the lady was in her seventies, and obviously harks back to a time when she THOUGHT Britain was great, and wants it back that way again.

I'd wager that a majority of the voters for the Tory Leadership are of the same demographic with similar views too.

Anyways we shall see what happens.

FrancieBrady · 18-07-2019 04:46PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

My reading of Seeking is that it will only be required in the event. In addition it is not ruling it out just that it needs an vote of approval (which it wouldn't get).

Is that right?

Don't look at me...I was confused 2 years ago.

lawred2 · 18-07-2019 04:51PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Yes I heard it. Fascinating (well eye rolling) stuff. But then again the lady was in her seventies, and obviously harks back to a time when she THOUGHT Britain was great, and wants it back that way again.

I'd wager that a majority of the voters for the Tory Leadership are of the same demographic with similar views too.

Anyways we shall see what happens.

Imagine working towards a future where a sizable cohort of your mandate are verging on senile.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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