Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

traco

The voting lists show 17 Conservatives voted against the government, including Margot James, a junior minister. But 30 Tories were recorded as absent, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, Justice Secretary David Gauke and International Development Secretary Rory Stewart.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/gauke-won-t-commit-on-parliament-suspension-vote-brexit-update

James has resigned and Hunt was absent. May leaving the retribution to Johnson when he is PM

How do the numbers stack up now when Johnson steps in? It seems like he could be in hot water very quickly?

Frank Bullitt

woohoo!!! wrote: »

They'll Brexit alright and they'll celebrate and wave flags insisting they have won. And this little bubble will last a while, with issues like no trade deals and problems with customs brushed aside.

However, slowly but surely they will come to the realisation that Brexit isn't the end, no, it's merely the end of the beginning. Then the realisation will dawn on them that they've no clue what their future relationship with the EU and everyone else will be, nevermind how to get there when they do decide. A cautionary tale of the early 21st century.

Just add in "this was all the EU's fault" and you have a winner!

Joe_ Public

Victory in the commons today was a massive victory for the remain side. It was, as one commentator rightly explained, a crushing defeat for Boris Johnson even before he becomes pm. It wasn't really about proroguing, as that was never a credible threat anyway, but a warning to any pm that trying to leave without a deal will lead to his downfall. We can say with increased certainty the numbers are not there for no deal. Its not off the table entirely but the odds have grown increasingly higher. I think today was the day the remain side took back at least some control of the brexit narrative.

Lackadaisical

Sterling traders seem to have reacted to the news a little bit anyway, it's dropped back to €1.00 = £0.8993

No that I'd put any faith in the ability of currency markets to do political analysis.

Joe_ Public

traco wrote: »

The voting lists show 17 Conservatives voted against the government, including Margot James, a junior minister. But 30 Tories were recorded as absent, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond, Justice Secretary David Gauke and International Development Secretary Rory Stewart.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/gauke-won-t-commit-on-parliament-suspension-vote-brexit-update

James has resigned and Hunt was absent. May leaving the retribution to Johnson when he is PM

How do the numbers stack up now when Johnson steps in? It seems like he could be in hot water very quickly?

The numbers stack up pretty poorly for Boris Johnson. He barely had a majority as it was, today's vote makes clear he cannot rely on a significant cabal of his own party. In a vote of confidence his only hope would be on his own MPs fearing the wrath of the whip and their own constituency reselection bodies, but its fairly clear enough of them are so against his brexit policy they will defy him. If it comes to Parliament voting to ask the EU for an extension, Johnson could not simply refuse and hope to stay in his position. He has a lot of thinking to do after today.

Christy42

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The numbers stack up pretty poorly for Boris Johnson. He barely had a majority as it was, today's vote makes clear he cannot rely on a significant cabal of his own party. In a vote of confidence his only hope would be on his own MPs fearing the wrath of the whip and their own constituency reselection bodies, but its fairly clear enough of them are so against his brexit policy they will defy him. If it comes to Parliament voting to ask the EU for an extension, Johnson could not simply refuse and hope to stay in his position. He has a lot of thinking to do after today.

I imagine in a vote of no confidence would be his MPs fearing Corbyn more than anything. I believe it was the only thing that kept May in power.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The numbers stack up pretty poorly for Boris Johnson. He barely had a majority as it was, today's vote makes clear he cannot rely on a significant cabal of his own party. In a vote of confidence his only hope would be on his own MPs fearing the wrath of the whip and their own constituency reselection bodies, but its fairly clear enough of them are so against his brexit policy they will defy him. If it comes to Parliament voting to ask the EU for an extension, Johnson could not simply refuse and hope to stay in his position. He has a lot of thinking to do after today.

He only has himself to blame. He has spooked everyone in the UK this week with his No Deal rhetoric and caused the pound to drop at one point. This ramping up of things has consequences.

Joe_ Public

Christy42 wrote: »

I imagine in a vote of no confidence would be his MPs fearing Corbyn more than anything. I believe it was the only thing that kept May in power.

Good point. They will definitely try to use that to scare them but I doubt even that will work at this stage. Could be close enough if it came down to it probably.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

He only has himself to blame. He has spooked everyone in the UK this week with his No Deal rhetoric and caused the pound to drop at one point. This ramping up of things has consequences.

Absolutely. The last month with this farcical Tory leadership contest has been played out on such a narrow canvas that these hard brexit guys began to think they were invincible, they could literally say anything and get away with it. Today they got brought back to reality. There's two sides in this argument and I don't believe Johnson and his cronies are on the winning one.

Tell me how

10 reasons why hasn't Brexit happened.

1. The UK had no plan for Brexit
2. The EU did have a plan - a plan for its own survival
3. "Brexit means Brexit" but what on earth did that mean?
4. The first rule of politics - you have to be able to count
5. The clock was always ticking
6. No deal was an empty threat
7. The Irish border issue just wouldn't go away
8. The EU dreamed that the UK might change its mind
9. MPs couldn't agree on anything
10. It was all a terrible misunderstanding

They could have added at least 10 more....

Capt'n Midnight

Enzokk wrote: »

And then a thread on the OBR figures. I will just post two tweets from Faisal Islam about them.

The £30Bn is not what a hard Brexit would cost.

It's the difference between Brexit with a deal vs one with no-deal.

It doesn't include spending spree promises made to buy the Tory voters in their leadership kerfuffle.

The forecast used by the OBR is less severe than those of the Bank of England and the Treasury.

In November, the Bank said a no-deal outcome could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the 2008 financial crisis.

The economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, the Bank said.

The Treasury meanwhile has predicted a £90bn hit to the economy by 2035 - although prominent eurosceptics dispute this view.

In a comment piece for the Telegraph newspaper earlier this week, Conservative backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg called the forecast "silliness", adding that a no-deal scenario could instead boost the economy by £80bn.

The honourable member for the 17th century is so confident that the UK economy will do £170Bn* better than the Treasury predicted that he's offshored lots of assets.


*that's half our GDP

Frank Bullitt

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexit-caller-james-obrien-fish-and-chips/

I usually like listening to James O'Brien, but this is one really hard listen.

It probably sums up so many people that voted to leave, but the helpless nature that he tired to reason with her...god bless.

Shelga

Gintonious wrote: »

https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/brexit-caller-james-obrien-fish-and-chips/

I usually like listening to James O'Brien, but this is one really hard listen.

It probably sums up so many people that voted to leave, but the helpless nature that he tired to reason with her...god bless.

I don’t feel sorry for her. People owe it to themselves and others to educate themselves properly about what this means.

I don’t feel sorry for people who would rather the UK economy tanks than admit they were wrong.

I don’t feel sorry for people who wash their hands of what the Leave vote is going to do to the island of Ireland.

I don’t feel sorry for people who feel no guilt about inflicting this lunacy on small business owners, whose companies will fold.

I don’t feel sorry for people who blame all of their problems on immigration.

At this stage I really couldn’t care less what happens to Christine and her type. I feel sorry for people who voted Remain or people who voted Leave and regret it. I don’t care about Christine. I care about minimising the damage to Ireland, a country that had no say in this mess whatsoever.

Stop moaning ffs

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Good point. They will definitely try to use that to scare them but I doubt even that will work at this stage. Could be close enough if it came down to it probably.

Someone today in the independent saying the choice is between Johnson’s delusions and a Corbyn government.

They actually are more in fear of Corbyn and labour taking over than a no deal.

The whole country is being held ransom to ongoing fear nonsense than reality.

A Shropshire Lad

For those who are adament that nothing can stop a no-deal Brexit:

'MPs have easily passed a backbench amendment seeking to block any attempt by a future government to prorogue parliament to ensure a no-deal Brexit, in what is likely to be seen as a pre-emptive strike against Boris Johnson’s authority.

The amendment, tabled by a cross-party group led by Labour’s Hilary Benn and the Conservatives’ Alistair Burt, passed by an unexpectedly large margin of 41 votes, with 315 MPs backing it and 274 opposed'

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation

Nody

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

For those who are adament that nothing can stop a no-deal Brexit:

'MPs have easily passed a backbench amendment seeking to block any attempt by a future government to prorogue parliament to ensure a no-deal Brexit, in what is likely to be seen as a pre-emptive strike against Boris Johnson’s authority.

The amendment, tabled by a cross-party group led by Labour’s Hilary Benn and the Conservatives’ Alistair Burt, passed by an unexpectedly large margin of 41 votes, with 315 MPs backing it and 274 opposed'

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/18/mps-pass-amendment-seeking-to-thwart-no-deal-prorogation

And it still does not stop Brexit; Brexit happens automatically 31st Oct. unless UK government somehow asks for an extension and gives a good enough reason for EU to accept it.

FrancieBrady

Nody wrote: »

And it still does not stop Brexit; Brexit happens automatically 31st Oct. unless UK government somehow asks for an extension and gives a good enough reason for EU to accept it.

Exactly, they can faff about with voting for whatever they want...but unless they present something it is No Deal by default.
The EU could finish this now by refusing an extension. Parliament would either have to vote for the deal or suspend Art 50/revoke the whole shambles.

Joe_ Public

The surest bet of stopping no deal is convincing the new PM that he will be taken down if he persists in ticking the clock down to halloween. The numbers would appear to be there to achieve that. Reality is setting in, the bluff and bluster is wearing thinner and thinner by the day.

Larbre34

Parliament stopping the proroguing of Parliament and Parliament actively stopping a no-deal Brexit (either by the Government of the day or by default) are entirely separate and distinct exercises.

Joe_ Public

Larbre34 wrote: »

Parliament stopping the proroguing of Parliament and Parliament actively stopping a no-deal Brexit (either by the Government of the day or by default) are entirely separate and distinct exercises.

Technically, but the point of one is that it hopefully leads to the other so there is a clear link. Not every MP who broke ranks and voted for the amendment today will necessarily vote to stop a no deal exit or to take down their PM in a vote of confidence but i would be quite confident enough of them would. Only need a handful anyway.

Joe_ Public

This Panorama doc is very good. Phillip Hammond says, and i paraphrase, "with the benefit of hindsight i think it would have been better if we had a plan before we triggered A50". I know its all old news at this stage, but it's still quite shocking to hear how they played it. The ineptness is so staggering, it's hard to comprehend.

Leroy42

He shouldn't need the benefit of hindsight.

That is an extraordinary admission for the Chancellor, and should see TM lambasted for ever more.

Beechwoodspark

Timmermans is taking no prisoners. He’s one step away from laughing.

Says the Uk approach was akin to sitcom dads army “don’t panic don’t panic”

Call me Al

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Timmermans is taking no prisoners. He’s one step away from laughing.

Says the Uk approach was akin to sitcom dads army “don’t panic don’t panic”

I must admit the candour is refreshing.
And its quite reassuring to see the strength of conviction and unity they have.
As for David Davis, well there are no words really.

Joe_ Public

Leroy42 wrote: »

He shouldn't need the benefit of hindsight.

That is an extraordinary admission for the Chancellor, and should see TM lambasted for ever more.

I'm sure it was said at the time, how ludicrous they were being to trigger A50 without any clear notion of where they were going, other than "brexit means brexit". They were so locked into the "easiest trade deals ever" and "just get it done" mentality that they proceeded with this extraordinary complacency and arrogance. Remember, at one of their first informal gatherings, May spoke about sorting out the specifics of a free trade deal BEFORE they had even mentioned the divorce. It was incompetence of spectacular proportions.

Beechwoodspark

David Davis is his usual underwhelming blustering self.

He comes across as a dim, conceited and very lazy politician.

Beechwoodspark

Rabb amazed that the EU didn’t swallow his rubbish ! Going on about how it could be win win.

Rabb and his type still don’t realise they are very much the weaker partner in this negotiation.

Call me Al

I dont know if I'm on my own here but I cringe everytime I hear that 'bloody difficult woman" line trotted out.
Speak with some value, gravitas, and relevance if you want to be taken seriously. Scowling at the camera doesn't equate with those things and never will.

Call me Al

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Rabb amazed that the EU didn’t swallow his rubbish ! Going on about how it could be win win.

Rabb and his type still don’t realise they are very much the weaker partner in this negotiation.

Oh I think he is fully aware of exactly where they stand right now.
I feel that the bluster they come out with these days is for domestic consumption at this point.

FrancieBrady

Anyone know how soon Panorama goes up on the iPlayer...missed it.