Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

robinph · 08-07-2019 11:43AM

First Up wrote: »

Its a problem for anyone that has the UK as part of its supply chain either buying or selling.

But as an EU business would you rather be told that you can no longer buy or sell to the UK in the same way on October 31st, or that you might not be able to buy or sell to the UK at some indeterminate point in the future long after October 31st but until that point just carry on as you are now and we'll let you know when things change and how when we figure it out?

Yes, you can't make a prediction for UK sales for the business in five years time if you don't know if there will be any in five years time, but at the moment there is and you just carry on doing what you do and take your time targeting other areas or suppliers with no rush.

First Up · 08-07-2019 11:52AM

robinph wrote:

Yes, you can't make a prediction for UK sales for the business in five years time if you don't know if there will be any in five years time, but at the moment there is and you just carry on doing what you do and take your time targeting other areas or suppliers with no rush.

Not if you are using components from a UK company or if you use the UK as a distribution hub or route to other markets.

Blowfish · 08-07-2019 12:02PM

So I knew the Conservative Party members over recent times have gotten a little extreme, but I didn't expect them to be this bad: https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

Poll: Donald Trump would make a good British prime minister says Tories
...
It found that:

54% back the US president as a potential leader, with 43% disagreeing.
58% of Tory members would like the return of the death penalty.
56% believe Islam is a threat to the British way of life.
42% believe having people from a wide variety of racial and cultural backgrounds has damaged British society.
46% believe concerns about climate change have been exaggerated.
49% believe schools should not be required to teach children about LGBT relationships.

Professor Moriarty · 08-07-2019 12:13PM

dfx- wrote: »

How many Labour MPs like Hoey and Skinner and abstainers in the front bench are there...

Very few that would keep a populist and elitist Tory government in power so that Britain can crash out of Europe without a deal.

robinph · 08-07-2019 12:13PM

First Up wrote: »

Not if you are using components from a UK company or if you use the UK as a distribution hub or route to other markets.

But how is it worse to have those routes cut off at some unknown point in the distant future, rather than on October 31st 2019?

You are either already too late in making your plans to have been ready for March 29th 2019 that has already passed, or it really doesn't matter that much to your business and however long continuing to trade with the uncertainty is actually pretty good for your business and you'll just jump when need be.

If a no-deal is bad for you, and there is anything that you can do about it for your business, then you have already done whatever is needed. Anything between now and a potential no-deal brexit day is just a bonus, not a negative.

Inquitus · 08-07-2019 12:16PM

Blowfish wrote: »

So I knew the Conservative Party members over recent times have gotten a little extreme, but I didn't expect them to be this bad: https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

Yep sadly that shows what sort of people are picking the next PM, in less than a generation they'll all be dead and the Tories will have to become more moderate.

otnomart · 08-07-2019 12:25PM

Ursula von der Leyen 'does not see any problems' with Brexit extension beyond 31 October
Source: https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/ursula-von-der-leyen-does-not-see-any-problems-brexit-extension-beyond-31-october

ancapailldorcha · 08-07-2019 12:35PM

otnomart wrote: »

Ursula von der Leyen 'does not see any problems' with Brexit extension beyond 31 October
Source: https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/ursula-von-der-leyen-does-not-see-any-problems-brexit-extension-beyond-31-october

I'm much more concerned about what Emmanuel Macron thinks to be honest.

MrMusician18 · 08-07-2019 12:37PM

Blowfish wrote: »

So I knew the Conservative Party members over recent times have gotten a little extreme, but I didn't expect them to be this bad: https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-donald-trump-would-make-good-british-prime-minister-tories-2019-7?r=US&IR=T

Climate change skepticism and hostility to immigration are fairly commonly held right-wing views. And perhaps showing how far the centre had shifted, I wouldn't say they're on the extreme either.

dfx- · 08-07-2019 12:52PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Very few that would keep a populist and elitist Tory government in power so that Britain can crash out of Europe without a deal.

But enough to spoil any parliamentary attempt to block no deal before they leave. There was 15 or so of them I think in the last vote.

It will rely on a cabinet revolt by Hammond/Rudd/Hunt, causing a general election to block it and them accepting the consequences for the party if they do.

Remainers will not flock to the Conservative Party, they got the country into this.

First Up · 08-07-2019 12:55PM

robinph wrote:

But how is it worse to have those routes cut off at some unknown point in the distant future, rather than on October 31st 2019?

Because they don't know if they will be cut off or not and they don't know how distant the future will be.

Change is expensive and small companies especially find it hard to get the time and money to replace entire supply chains.

But they can't wait forever and the longer the UK farts around the more who will find other ways to by-pass the place entirely.

Stop moaning ffs · 08-07-2019 12:58PM

Could Johnson or Hunt if he gets the job, threaten the DUP with ‘toe the line or we’ll cut you off and off to a United ireland referendum you go’?
It wouldn’t even be the most bizarre thing in all brexit

Possible though?

Nody · 08-07-2019 01:02PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Could Johnson or Hunt if he gets the job, threaten the DUP with ‘toe the line or we’ll cut you off and off to a United ireland referendum you go’?
It wouldn’t even be the most bizarre thing in all brexit

Possible though?

The only problem with that is DUP are such extremists that they could go against them out of spite for that threat; I do agree however it's one of the few levers they have that could work on DUP but I simply don't see them buying it. They will push the same thing as before about no separate rules etc. and if they don't get that they will scupper the government. It's not like Tories are likely to make a return as it stands anyway so the threat risks being toothless.

Stop moaning ffs · 08-07-2019 01:05PM

I don’t know what form it will take or when but the DUP will be held to account by a PM and probably the next one. Whoever it is. It’s astonishing to me that you don’t see it mentioned that they’re almost the entire reason for the limbo this is all in.

Professor Moriarty · 08-07-2019 01:15PM

dfx- wrote: »

But enough to spoil any parliamentary attempt to block no deal before they leave. There was 15 or so of them I think in the last vote.

It will rely on a cabinet revolt by Hammond/Rudd/Hunt, causing a general election to block it and them accepting the consequences for the party if they do.

Remainers will not flock to the Conservative Party, they got the country into this.

Dunno which vote you are talking about? If its the recent motion, most of those Labour MPs voted against or abstained because they don't want Brexit delayed, not because they are in favour of No Deal. What happened four weeks ago is very different to a no confidence vote in a populist and elitist Tory government who want to crash out. That's the opposite to wanting your party to deliver an orderly Brexit while being in government.

trellheim · 08-07-2019 01:19PM

a no-confidence motion and GE will still result in a crash-out as the numbers will either stay the same or increase Brexit party seats ( otherwise everyone will have to try and out-Brexit the Brexit party, there is no room at all for intelligence here )

ambro25 · 08-07-2019 01:21PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

With difficulty at great expense.

Anyways I wonder if EU can grant an extension if and only if dozen billion is paid into escrow account that would focus Boris's mind

No such provisions in Art.50 TEU, so no legal basis for demanding it, only a political one.

Considering BoJo would get hung, drawn and quartered by the Conservative party membership for having the temerity of requesting an extension alone, the chances of BoJo giving in to such a demand from the EU are less than non-existent.

PAYG extensions for the UK are a nice, and deliciously ironic,thought. But they're a complete and utter non-starter, at least until the 2020-27 EU budget period kicks in.

You'd have a good year at least (first budget year) to wait and see whether the UK welches, and even if it does, the EU would likely kill off their rebate first (think of it as invoice majoration).

The EU can't even turn off existing subsidies (ERDF and such), whilst the UK technically remains a member (but it could gradually curtail, and eventually choke off, opportunities for new ones...as it has already been doing awhile in several sectors, particularly start-ups and R&D, since 2016 notwithstanding the UK's membership).

Professor Moriarty · 08-07-2019 01:22PM

trellheim wrote: »

a no-confidence motion and GE will still result in a crash-out as the numbers will either stay the same or increase Brexit party seats ( otherwise everyone will have to try and out-Brexit the Brexit party, there is no room at all for intelligence here )

If they vote in a hard Brexit party/coalition, then off with them at that stage. Until then, it's in the EU's (and more especially ours) interest to maintain the status quo.

dfx- · 08-07-2019 01:28PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Dunno which vote you are talking about? If its the recent motion, most of those Labour MPs voted against or abstained because they don't want Brexit delayed, not because they are in favour of No Deal. What happened four weeks ago is very different to a no confidence vote in a populist and elitist Tory government who want to crash out. That's the opposite to wanting your party to deliver an orderly Brexit while being in government.

A 31st October exit is a no deal exit, wanting no delay is wanting a 31st October and a no deal exit. There is no time to renegotiate it.

A no confidence vote succeeding ends in a general election and a no deal Brexit.

The only thing to stop no deal now is the Parliament taking control and from the experience of their recent votes...that's not a good place to be.

Stop moaning ffs · 08-07-2019 01:32PM

dfx- wrote: »

A 31st October exit is a no deal exit, wanting no delay is wanting a 31st October and a no deal exit. There is no time to renegotiate it.

A no confidence vote succeeding ends in a general election and a no deal Brexit.

The only thing to stop no deal now is the Parliament taking control and from the experience of their recent votes...that's not a good place to be.

If it’s No confidence and a GE, will the EU automatically extend or will whoever’s PM have to ask them?

Both having said they were leaving 31st to then ask for an extension for an election will get them slaughtered at the ballot box

CelticRambler · 08-07-2019 01:34PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Your second paragraph is why the first won't happen.

I'm not saying Labour/Conservatives will dominate for ever more but we are bit away from a Lib Dem, Snp, Plaid Cymru just yet.

robinph wrote: »

It might be that LibDem becomes a more dominant party, but not within the next couple of months, and not in one massive flip from having 11 MPs to having 250+ of them which is what would be needed to then do a coalition with the SNP and PC.

This is the attitude that I find curious. The French did it, why not the Brits?

Both Tories and Labour are split, and ever more dependent on their hard-core, aged base. Younger voters are looking for different representation, and a lot of them who thought Jeremy Corbyn was the new Messiah, and gave him/Labour their vote at the last GE are thoroughly disgusted with him.

In between, you've got the soft core voters, many of whom are also completely fed up with traditional politics and politicians. If they're faced with the choice of voting for their Old Favourite, abstaining, or giving a protest vote to the Lib Dems (because they haven't a hope of getting in :rolleyes: ) I think it's entirely plausible that the LibDems would make sweeping gains.

FPTP doesn't need people to vote for your candidates, only to vote against the others.

Professor Moriarty · 08-07-2019 01:35PM

dfx- wrote: »

A 31st October exit is a no deal exit, wanting no delay is wanting a 31st October and a no deal exit. There is no time to renegotiate it.

A no confidence vote succeeding ends in a general election and a no deal Brexit.

The only thing to stop no deal now is the Parliament taking control and from the experience of their recent votes...that's not a good place to be.

Why does a GE necessarily end in No Deal?

prawnsambo · 08-07-2019 01:38PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

This is the attitude that I find curious. The French did it, why not the Brits?

Both Tories and Labour are split, and ever more dependent on their hard-core, aged base. Younger voters are looking for different representation, and a lot of them who thought Jeremy Corbyn was the new Messiah, and gave him/Labour their vote at the last GE are thoroughly disgusted with him.

In between, you've got the soft core voters, many of whom are also completely fed up with traditional politics and politicians. If they're faced with the choice of voting for their Old Favourite, abstaining, or giving a protest vote to the Lib Dems (because they haven't a hope of getting in :rolleyes: ) I think it's entirely plausible that the LibDems would make sweeping gains.

FPTP doesn't need people to vote for your candidates, only to vote against the others.

It also looks as if there are going to be voting pacts between the LibDems, Greens and Plaid Cymru (and probably the SNP). This would prevent vote splitting and maximise the number of seats each would obtain. Would be interesting if they carry it out.

Shelga · 08-07-2019 01:48PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

With difficulty at great expense.

Anyways I wonder if EU can grant an extension if and only if dozen billion is paid into escrow account that would focus Boris's mind

Can any EU country currently try to negotiate their own trade agreements with countries that do not have anything in place with the EU?

For example, could Ireland try create its own trade deal with Bolivia?

robinph · 08-07-2019 01:48PM

First Up wrote: »

Because they don't know if they will be cut off or not and they don't know how distant the future will be.

Change is expensive and small companies especially find it hard to get the time and money to replace entire supply chains.

But they can't wait forever and the longer the UK farts around the more who will find other ways to by-pass the place entirely.

Precisely. The longer it goes on the more time business have to sort themselves out which is good for them.

If it was that critical to make changes though then they should have done it back in March, not be worried about if October will happen or not. If they are in a position where it is going to be a pain either way and they haven't done anything so far, then extensions beyond October are not an issue and can only be good for them to continue kicking their own small personal can down the road.

The only negative to giving business more time is they spend a bit more time planning, but that is only planning that they should have done months ago so it can only be good to have more time.

trellheim · 08-07-2019 01:50PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why does a GE necessarily end in No Deal?

Necessarily it does not. But any change is likely to be towards the Brexit party IMHO; it will be the defining GE issue and all the parties will want to out-brexit the others.

dfx- · 08-07-2019 01:54PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it’s No confidence and a GE, will the EU automatically extend or will whoever’s PM have to ask them?

They have to ask the EU to my knowledge so if it's a Brexit mandate from a GE and Brexit PM...

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Why does a GE necessarily end in No Deal?

There's no Remain coalition that can win realistically. It will be a Brexit mandate with a strong leave cabinet and PM.

prawnsambo · 08-07-2019 01:59PM

Shelga wrote: »

Can any EU country currently try to negotiate their own trade agreements with countries that do not have anything in place with the EU?

For example, could Ireland try create its own trade deal with Bolivia?

No. EU wide trade deals or not at all.

Strazdas · 08-07-2019 01:59PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

If it’s No confidence and a GE, will the EU automatically extend or will whoever’s PM have to ask them?

Both having said they were leaving 31st to then ask for an extension for an election will get them slaughtered at the ballot box

There's nothing automatic about it. The UK would be the one looking for an extension to A50 and the EU who grant it. Britain would have to formally request an extension otherwise it doesn't happen.....they're the ones who triggered A50.

prawnsambo · 08-07-2019 02:02PM

dfx- wrote: »

There's no Remain coalition that can win realistically. It will be a Brexit mandate with a strong leave cabinet and PM.

It will be interesting to see if the Brexit Party get anything like the number of seats that their polling would suggest. Because UKIP were never able to convert their polling into seats in Westminster. There's a theory that their support stops short of giving them a say in domestic politics.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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