Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation · 04-07-2019 02:17PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's too late for either. I'd say the likeliest outcome is Parliament taking control again and unilaterally revoking Article 50 though that might complicate things.

I said prospect. If a GE or referendum is called before 31/10 then they'll get an extension I would wager.

ambro25 · 04-07-2019 02:21PM

Mezcita wrote: »

I'm not so sure. The last extension was given even though it was fairly obvious the UK would have no clearer idea about the type of Brexit they wanted. They are still in the exact same situation. Each extension brings the UK closer to a possible election where the situation would change.

How Boris would spin another extension request is another thing though....

There's been one extension, and the evidence at hand is that the UK has done the exact reverse -with some vigour, at that- of what the EU granted the extension for: to make internal progress, politically, towards a mutually-beneficial, negotiated resolution.

Instead, the UK has managed to retrograde, relative to the political situation as of 29 March 2019. Further, by the evidence of recent polls, the outcome of GE would be less predictable than ever, i.e. still more uncertainty for all concerned, including the EU27 and Barnier.

One could justifiably argue, that the UK is already a political basket-case, and a couple quarters' worth of negative growth's away from becoming an economic one.

Against that backdrop, given the Statutes in play under which a GE could not happen until 2022, I don't see how a further extension would guarantee any progress advantageous to the EU, relative to cushioning a no-deal as best the EU27 can under their repective levels of preparedness.

I get the political capital cost to the EU of, effectively, 'kicking' the UK out by binning a further extension. But years on from the ref by the time end October comes, assuming nothing has changed in the UK (why assume different?) and Boris has done exactly what we expect him to (bluster, come home empty handed, blame), still with no guarantee of a GE occurring any earlier than 2022, the flipside political capital gained out of showing decisiveness in the face of unending clownery should not be underestimated.

robinph · 04-07-2019 02:25PM

Did just get yet another voter registration form through the post today, I'm sure we've had more of these in the last couple of years than ever before. Think we had one back at the beginning of the year, but you'd normally only get them every 4 years or so. I guess they are just taking advantage of the lull in proceedings to ensure that the electoral register is up to date in anticipation of another potential flurry of votes in a couple of months.

ancapailldorcha · 04-07-2019 02:26PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I said prospect. If a GE or referendum is called before 31/10 then they'll get an extension I would wager.

Yep. Well caught.

To be honest, I've given up on that for now. Boris Johnson won't last less than a few months. When he eventually crashes and burns, it'll be at the last minute which means begging for another extension or revoking Article 50.

Mezcita · 04-07-2019 02:29PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

They were told not to waste this extension. Again. They wasted it. Again.

I agree but the EU is collectively stronger with the UK still being a member state. Therefore the more extensions get triggered, the more likely the UK will just call off the whole thing.

Boris will need to do something drastic if he really is keen on leaving by the 31st of October. Pretty sure he will change his tune once he gets the PM job.

Stop moaning ffs · 04-07-2019 02:29PM

"...colonies rising up against their imperial oppressors..."

Says Anne not realising it’s the 4th of July and America celebrating its independence from Britain

Shelga · 04-07-2019 02:33PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's too late for either. I'd say the likeliest outcome is Parliament taking control again and unilaterally revoking Article 50 though that might complicate things.

I don’t think a majority of MPs would vote to revoke article 50, tbh. It’s far easier to vote to rule out No Deal than it is to vote to overturn the result of the referendum- at least that’s how the rabid Brexiters will spin it.

ancapailldorcha · 04-07-2019 02:35PM

Shelga wrote: »

I don’t think a majority of MPs would vote to revoke article 50, tbh. It’s far easier to vote to rule out No Deal than it is to vote to overturn the result of the referendum- at least that’s how the rabid Brexiters will spin it.

Absolutely but I'm talking late October here when it'll either be revoke or no deal. There won't be any other alternatives. Ruling out no deal is meaningless unless an alternative is proposed. Time has now run out for a People's Vote or a GE unless the EU approves an extension for them.

fly_agaric · 04-07-2019 02:47PM

ambro25 wrote: »

There's been one extension

They are on no. 2 now aren't they??
There was a short one, just a couple of weeks in April. That was going to be extended longer I think if UK parliament actually passed withdrawal agreement (to allow them to get their house in order).
They didn't. So was another EU council meeting about it and a longer extension was given (edit after request from UK).

Unfortunately, I expect if UK come & look for more extensions they will get them almost indefinitely. The leaders of the EU states are (mostly) very cautious. They also find it difficult to agree with each other on large geopolitical things (I'd put relationship with the UK/Brexit in that class).
I can't see them making decision (to finally give the UK the bum's rush out of the EU) even if it might be necessary and really the best thing to do now. Much easier to hope blindly, do nothing & agree to kick the can down the road again for a time.

Boris will probably look for a new extension too once he is PM.
The UK politicians in charge seem to lie just shamelessly all the time now so he'll probably just let the "we're leaving on the 31st October no matter what" promise he made disappear down the memory hole.
He can say of course he really did mean that at the time (during the heat of election fever) but now (as a sober newly minted PM) he sees it is just not possible, so sorry! He can then say he's going to stay in for now, get UK better prepared for Brexit during the next extension, work really hard [unlike Theresa May] on damaging and fracturing the EU from inside etc etc...The Brexiteers in the Conservatives will like that. edit: and I wonder what can they do about it if he is installed as PM & then does an about face/marches everyone back down the hill like that? Provoke an early election?

robinph · 04-07-2019 02:48PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Absolutely but I'm talking late October here when it'll either be revoke or no deal. There won't be any other alternatives. Ruling out no deal is meaningless unless an alternative is proposed. Time has now run out for a People's Vote or a GE unless the EU approves an extension for them.

They have already been in that situation on the cliff edge though and voted down all three possible options of WA, no-deal and revoke. No reason to think they won't do the same again even if it is then just between two choices.

Their daft voting system won't ask the question no-deal v revoke though, it will be no-deal v something and then it will be a completely separate vote of revoke v something. So something will win each time.

Strazdas · 04-07-2019 03:02PM

nc6000 wrote: »

Why are they so obsessed with fishing and fishing rights? My understanding is that the whole fishing industry is only a fraction of a percent of their GDP.

It seems to be some sort of token cause celebre for the British nationalists (goodness knows why).

Mezcita · 04-07-2019 03:05PM

ambro25 wrote: »

I get the political capital cost to the EU of, effectively, 'kicking' the UK out by binning a further extension. But years on from the ref by the time end October comes, assuming nothing has changed in the UK (why assume different?) and Boris has done exactly what we expect him to (bluster, come home empty handed, blame), still with no guarantee of a GE occurring any earlier than 2022, the flipside political capital gained out of showing decisiveness in the face of unending clownery should not be underestimated.

Time will tell I suppose. Certainly the EU refusing a further extension request would put the definite squeeze on the UK and I agree that it's the right course of action to make the UK come to their senses. I just don't see the EU saying no while there is still a chance that the UK could cancel Brexit.

trellheim · 04-07-2019 03:09PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's too late for either. I'd say the likeliest outcome is Parliament taking control again and unilaterally revoking Article 50 though that might complicate things.

i really really dont know where you are getting that from I've seen no evidence at all ?

Strazdas · 04-07-2019 03:11PM

Mezcita wrote: »

Time will tell I suppose. Certainly the EU refusing a further extension request would put the definite squeeze on the UK and I agree that it's the right course of action to make the UK come to their senses. I just don't see the EU saying no while there is still a chance that the UK could cancel Brexit.

The chance to cancel it is right now though. Why do they need to keep waiting until after deadlines have passed? Halloween is four months away.....plenty of time to finally put a halt to the Brexit crisis if they so desired

ancapailldorcha · 04-07-2019 03:16PM

trellheim wrote: »

i really really dont know where you are getting that from I've seen no evidence at all ?

No deal is something they've shot down repeatedly by the biggest margin. The only way to achieve this at crunch time is to revoke Article 50.

robinph · 04-07-2019 03:18PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The chance to cancel it is right now though. Why do they need to keep waiting until after deadlines have passed? Halloween is four months away.....plenty of time to finally put a halt to the Brexit crisis if they so desired

Because that gives them 4 months of claiming to have tried "something" and hope that some voters believe them. Doesn't really matter what else happens in the meantime, they have to run down the clock to retain an appropriate level of brexityness.

Stop moaning ffs · 04-07-2019 03:21PM

Revoking isn’t even in the conversation. Hasn’t ever been mentioned in months.
No way it’s triggered st this stage /up to deadline

robinph · 04-07-2019 03:24PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No deal is something they've shot down repeatedly by the biggest margin. The only way to achieve this at crunch time is to revoke Article 50.

The only way to achieve a revoke vote in parliament is if Bercow were to change the method of voting so that it is a choice between option A or option B, which would no doubt result in some legal challenge. But they will only ever vote on approving option A and separately approving option B and therefore we are forever stuck in a limbo of nothing.

robinph · 04-07-2019 03:26PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Revoking isn’t even in the conversation. Hasn’t ever been mentioned in months.
No way it’s triggered st this stage /up to deadline

I'd say that is just because we are focused on the Tory leadership for now, and Labour are just sitting on the fence.

I'm sure the concurrent LibDem leadership contest that is going on at the moment is mentioning revoke, but they are getting zero coverage.

Call me Al · 04-07-2019 03:30PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's too late for either. I'd say the likeliest outcome is Parliament taking control again and unilaterally revoking Article 50 though that might complicate things.

I think we are past that stage by now.

The UK is going to have to leave the EU for this current crisis to resolve itself. If they don't leave this disaster will rumble on and Farage will become ever more present, painful, and (frighteningly) powerful.

Of course their brexit will land them into a myriad of other possible crises, but as they have done up until now, they will lurch from one crisis to another fire-fighting and making it up as they go. I foresee this in the short to medium term.
Long term they will lick their wounds and paper over the cracks. The public will be poorer and it remains to be seen how that manifests itself.

ambro25 · 04-07-2019 03:35PM

Mezcita wrote: »

Time will tell I suppose. Certainly the EU refusing a further extension request would put the definite squeeze on the UK and I agree that it's the right course of action to make the UK come to their senses. I just don't see the EU saying no while there is still a chance that the UK could cancel Brexit.

And I understand that sentiment perfectly well.

But the EU's ascendency is premised on it being a rules-based construct, and kicking the Brexit can indefinitely until the UK should eventually come to its politico-socio-economic senses, does the EU less geopolitical favours than keeping the UK in: there comes a point wherein granting extensions one after the other (or even a single, much longer one) effectively makes a mockery of Article 50, in fact and in meaning, to the extent of providing its detractors with the very ammunition which they've so far had to invent.

Joe_ Public · 04-07-2019 04:01PM

I dont think its a terrible way to try to untangle this devilishly tricky conundrum by blankly consigning No Deal to the nuclear waste sarcophagus where it belongs and try to take the thread from there. Richard Harrington was on sky this morning saying he will do all in his power to prevent it and seems there's at least one tory mp joining this band by the day. I know what the odds say, but i dont believe it can or will happen. I've always believed a 2nd referendum was likely, but it's complicated in a procedural sense so i wouldn't wager my life on it.

No deal won't happen though. The country will mobilise against it in a way we haven't seen yet, remain side is simply dormant at the moment but that wont last as the clock ticks down.

Strazdas · 04-07-2019 04:14PM

robinph wrote: »

Because that gives them 4 months of claiming to have tried "something" and hope that some voters believe them. Doesn't really matter what else happens in the meantime, they have to run down the clock to retain an appropriate level of brexityness.

Indeed, but which makes a total mockery of granting more and more extensions. The UK is making no attempt whatsoever to engage in ending the Brexit crisis.

Lemming · 04-07-2019 04:21PM

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

"...colonies rising up against their imperial oppressors..."

Says Anne not realising it’s the 4th of July and America celebrating its independence from Britain

She might not, but Farage (sat next to her whilst delivering her tone-deaf vomitting fit) and Bannon most certainly do and I dare say it was suggested to her to include those lines, banking on some media exposure finding its way into US talking circles.

Sam Russell · 04-07-2019 04:22PM

Let it be known, once they have a new PM, that there will be no extension after the 31st October 2019.

That leaves a choice of three outcomes:
1. No deal crash out.
2. WA as is, with political declaration as is.
3: Revoke Art 50.

Make your mind up time, and get ready for the brown stuff hitting the fan - whichever one is chosen.

Professor Moriarty · 04-07-2019 04:23PM

Lemming wrote: »

She might not, but Farage (sat next to her whilst delivering her tone-deaf vomitting fit) and Bannon most certainly are and I dare say it was suggested to her to include those lines, banking on some media exposure finding its way into US talking circles.

Dunno. When even the Telegraph has a front page headline criticising your anti Brexit speech, you know you've gone too far.

Leroy42 · 04-07-2019 04:23PM

On the one hand granting extensions allows the EU to kick the can down the road, in the hope that something comes up (sanity in the UK).

On the other, the very reason for the A50 time limit was to prohibit countries for triggering the process and then simply extending it again and again in the hope that the EU give in.

I would see the later of those as the bigger issue in regards to an extension, particularly an extension with no clear outcome in mind.

If an extension is granted, another Ref of GE is not enough. It is very likely that neither will return a definitive answer, and as we saw with both the local and EU elections all parties will spin the result whichever way suits them best. The EU should only grant an extension on the basis of the UK government signalling that they are working on something different.

Either get the WA through, or failing that Revoke. No Deal is not in the EU's interests so giving the UK more time to consider it seems uncalled for.

The last extension gave the view to the UK that they had the EU in a bind, scared of a No Deal. And whilst the EU are rightly scared of it, they shouldn't be so scared as to let the UK, a soon to be 3rd country, to dictate the terms or the schedule.

If granted another extension, Johnson or Hunt will simply say they are buying the preparation time to No Deal. But instead put it to them that no extension unless they go back and say that either WA or revoke and if it takes a GE to do that then so be it.

Joe_ Public · 04-07-2019 04:27PM

Varadkar and other EU politicians have indicated that they would likely consider an extension on the basis of a GE or new referendum. I dont personally believe they are totally ready to give up on the UK just yet, for all the impatience that is increasingly circulating around the continent.

Lemming · 04-07-2019 04:36PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Dunno. When even the Telegraph has a front page headline criticising your anti Brexit speech, you know you've gone too far.

It - assuming it is a Farage/Bannon thing - wont have been aimed at consumption by a British audience apart from having any coincidental approval, but rather to plant a seed of propaganda into the minds of MAGA supporters and/or Trump that will be very hard to shake off once it takes root, allowing them [Farage/Bannon] to start spinning narrative after narrative to suit themselves.

Or of course, it could literally just have been the tone-deaf projectile vomiting of a woman once commented upon by a TV interviewer after the fact as being a few sandwiches short of a picnic.

The timing just seems quite coincidental given the person sat next to her who is exceedingly adept at media manipulation (or has access to someone who is, i.e. Bannon)

reslfj · 04-07-2019 04:38PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, but which makes a total mockery of granting more and more extensions. The UK is making no attempt whatsoever to engage in ending the Brexit crisis.

Don't forget the EU in early April had the EU Parliament election coming up and the new commission and a new council president was due.
The extension to Oct. 31 removed Brexit somewhat from the election in EU27 states
It did end most of the debate around the need for UK's participation in that election, too.

By October all in the new EU commission will be in place and the EU27 will again be 'fully fit for fight'.
The UK must realise that the next extension will be much harder to get passed in the council and even if granted may have some much more stringent conditions attached.

Lars

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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