Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Midlife

J Mysterio wrote: »

Corbyn is helping to destroy the lives of the normal 'worker'.

And with due respect, the normal 'worker' went for Brexit in many cases because their lives were not improving under the successive conservative and previously labour governments.

Brexit will indeed make things worse but you can't say Brexit alone is going to ruin places like Sunderland.

The British government has been failing it's people for a few decades now.

I mean taking Sunderland as an example with it's massive reliance on Nissan and huge Brexit vote. How **** must things be to get Turkeys to vote for Christmas.

Zubeneschamali

Laois_Man wrote: »

Those three parties combined aren't going to get anywhere near a majority!

FPTP is a mad system which works to keep the Labour/Tory duopoly in place.

But if the vote gets very fractured, almost anything can happen for an election or two until things settle down with two new permanent parties. If the Labour party continue to sit on the fence, The Brexit Party will split the Brexit vote and let actual Remainers take both Labour and Tory seats.

The split was Whigs vs Tories in the 1700s. Liberals vs. Tories in the 1800s. Labour vs. Tories in the 1900s.

It could flip to Leave vs. Remain for an election cycle or two, and since Labour and the Tories are split on this question, they could be replaced by parties with a clear message on this issue.

J Mysterio

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

For a Labour Brexit supporter, the right move is to stand clear. The Tories deliver Brexit, it's a disaster, Labour win the next election.


Labour get into Government and get Brexit without getting blamed for Brexit. All the downsides of Brexit can be blamed on the fool Tories incompetence, and Corbyn can set about returning the UK to the year 1970.

This is nice in theory, but in practice we all know that choosing not to fight Brexit is choosing to support Brexit. Very, very few will come out of this shambles unscathed or untainted.

And once the country is a Mad Max Wasteland™, Labour won't have much fun in running it, and 'the people' won't give them very long to turn it around. Turning it around will also mean going back to the EU and resolving those issues the EU want resolved now.

So even if Corbyn sits on his hands until the Tories have crashed out of the EU, it will then be him who will have to go back and make the concessions that the EU have been demanding all along. A pointless and disastrous 'plan' worthy of Baldrick.

robinph

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Greens don't have to be bigger than Labour to get into Government ahead of Labour.


My LibDem/SNP/Green alliance is a Remain alliance. Labour are not a Remain party not under Corbyn, so why would the actual Remain parties want them if they had the numbers without them.

Nope, but the SNP can never get more than 59? Green are at best going to get enough for a small round of drinks, which leaves the Lib Dems needing to go from 12 seats to 250 which is also not going to happen.

Could have Labour and LibDems neck and neck for the top number of seats on that side, but no way Lib Dem are making that much of a leap in numbers.

J Mysterio

Midlife wrote: »

And with due respect, the normal 'worker' went for Brexit in many cases because their lives were not improving under the successive conservative and previously labour governments.

Brexit will indeed make things worse but you can't say Brexit alone is going to ruin places like Sunderland.

The British government has been failing it's people for a few decades now.

I mean taking Sunderland as an example with it's massive reliance on Nissan and huge Brexit vote. How **** must things be to get Turkeys to vote for Christmas.

I agree that successive governments have quite clearly abandoned huge swathes of the country to ruin, but Brexit is the death knell. It's actually dangerous in many ways. Remove manufacturing from some of these places, there is almost nothing left.

Brings to mind the former mining towns in Wales - there is literally nothing in these towns. Nothing.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

FPTP is a mad system which works to keep the Labour/Tory duopoly in place.

But if the vote gets very fractured, almost anything can happen for an election or two until things settle down with two new permanent parties. If the Labour party continue to sit on the fence, The Brexit Party will split the Brexit vote and let actual Remainers take both Labour and Tory seats.

The split was Whigs vs Tories in the 1700s. Liberals vs. Tories in the 1800s. Labour vs. Tories in the 1900s.

It could flip to Leave vs. Remain for an election cycle or two, and since Labour and the Tories are split on this question, they could be replaced by parties with a clear message on this issue.

Based on the EU elections both Tory and Labour (and I'm talking in general terms rather than dealing with specific seats) are looking at being well short of the number of votes that would get them top.

FPTP system means that if the voters think this then they are faced with either voting, for example, Tory and allowing the Lib Dems or something to get in or getting full on behind the BP.

FPTP works for the main parties because they are the main parties and so get the advantage. Losing that Main will mean they run the risk of suffering the same fate of the normal smaller parties. For Example UKIP in 2015.

J Mysterio

J Mysterio wrote: »

I agree that successive governments have quite clearly abandoned huge swathes of the country to ruin, but Brexit is the death knell. It's actually dangerous in many ways. Remove manufacturing from some of these places, there is almost nothing left.

Brings to mind the former mining towns in Wales - there is literally nothing in these towns. Nothing.

In the 1980s, I briefly lived in a town in North Wales that had been de-industrialised by the Thatcher policies of the early 1980s, some parts of the town looked like they had been carpet bombed by the Luftwaffe.
There was an entire industrial estate full of demolished and wrecked buildings and hundreds of abandoned houses. The Conservative policies at the start of the 1980s was to replace manufacturing with service & financial industry jobs. The loss of all that manufacturing capacity has severely weakened the UK's clout in any trade negotiations.

Professor Moriarty

Last quarter, the British economy shrank for the first time in seven years. I wonder will Johnson mention this in the hustings.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

FPTP works for the main parties because they are the main parties and so get the advantage. Losing that Main will mean they run the risk of suffering the same fate of the normal smaller parties.

Traditionally, people vote Labour because only Labour can stop the Tories, and they vote Tory because only the Tories can stop Labour.

But if the burning question in the GE campaign is who can deliver Brexit and who can stop it, why vote for either? The Tories have signally failed to deliver, and Labour haven't even tried to stop them.

Clearly you should vote for the Brexit Party or the Bollocks to Brexit Party.

Zubeneschamali

J Mysterio wrote: »

I understand the point they are getting at though, so not offended. It's not a great cartoon though.

Not very funny, agreed, but replacing Unicorns with end-of-the-rainbow Leprechaun Gold doesn't seem offensive to me.

lawred2

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Not very funny, agreed, but replacing Unicorns with end-of-the-rainbow Leprechaun Gold doesn't seem offensive to me.

Given that the backstop is an Irish matter then at least the use of leprechauns is appropriate

It's a fairly poor effort at it but it's definitely not offensive

Quin_Dub

Deleted User wrote: »

In the 1980s, I briefly lived in a town in North Wales that had been de-industrialised by the Thatcher policies of the early 1980s, some parts of the town looked like they had been carpet bombed by the Luftwaffe.
There was an entire industrial estate full of demolished and wrecked buildings and hundreds of abandoned houses. The Conservative policies at the start of the 1980s was to replace manufacturing with service & financial industry jobs. The loss of all that manufacturing capacity has severely weakened the UK's clout in any trade negotiations.

Jobs which are utterly dependent on Market access, yet they are driving for No-Deal.

It's beyond tragic at this point , listening to all the various pro-Brexit commentators now talking about how Post-Brexit Britain will be awful but it's ok it'll be "ours" or something...

And somehow this is ok?

murphaph

Tricolour alongside German and EU flags on prominent display around here ahead of President's state visit to Germany:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1072638109604952&id=348195155382588

The symbolism is important. Germany knows what it's like to have a hard border. Germany understands our need for a backstop to prevent one re-emerging in Ireland. Johnson & Hunt take notice.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

In the 1980s, I briefly lived in a town in North Wales that had been de-industrialised by the Thatcher policies of the early 1980s, some parts of the town looked like they had been carpet bombed by the Luftwaffe.
There was an entire industrial estate full of demolished and wrecked buildings and hundreds of abandoned houses. The Conservative policies at the start of the 1980s was to replace manufacturing with service & financial industry jobs. The loss of all that manufacturing capacity has severely weakened the UK's clout in any trade negotiations.

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Jobs which are utterly dependent on Market access, yet they are driving for No-Deal.

It's beyond tragic at this point , listening to all the various pro-Brexit commentators now talking about how Post-Brexit Britain will be awful but it's ok it'll be "ours" or something...

And somehow this is ok?

Yes the clear flaw in the current Brexit thinking, they really should have restored some manufacturing capability first, service sector on its own can't provide the financial security the country needs after Brexit.

Leroy42

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Traditionally, people vote Labour because only Labour can stop the Tories, and they vote Tory because only the Tories can stop Labour.

But if the burning question in the GE campaign is who can deliver Brexit and who can stop it, why vote for either? The Tories have signally failed to deliver, and Labour haven't even tried to stop them.

Clearly you should vote for the Brexit Party or the Bollocks to Brexit Party.

Certainly the Tory or Labour decision was the only one until recently. But if a vote for a Tory would still result in either the Lab or Lib Dem getting in then you may look elsewhere. As the BP looks very attractive.

It is the all or nothing impact of the FPTP. Whilst it is very good at protecting the stronger parties, it is also pretty brutal at wiping them out should they fall below a certain level.

ancapailldorcha

Memes deleted.

Professor Moriarty

Farage tweet today accusing Johnson of telling people what they want to hear. Hahaha!

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Farage tweet today accusing Johnson of telling people what they want to hear. Hahaha!

This is the tweet:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1146364603334627328

It didn't take long before they turned on each other!

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is the tweet:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1146364603334627328

It didn't take long before they turned on each other!

Johnson's campaign must be rattling Farage. Let's hope they cannibalise each other.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson's campaign must be rattling Farage. Let's hope they cannibalise each other.

That's not what happens though. Look at the Tea Party in the US. They started within the Republican party and grew. They ousted several long standing, mainstream conservatives. Trump would not have gained the nomination in the GOP of 2008. The Overton window shifted rightwards.

Farage wants to replicate this feat with the Conservative party. Look at his links with the American right. He's playing a long game and, unfortunately doing in well given the open goals he's aiming at.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's not what happens though. Look at the Tea Party in the US. They started within the Republican party and grew. They ousted several long standing, mainstream conservatives. Trump would not have gained the nomination in the GOP of 2008. The Overton window shifted rightwards.

Farage wants to replicate this feat with the Conservative party. Look at his links with the American right. He's playing a long game and, unfortunately doing in well given the open goals he's aiming at.

But Farage has been outside the Tory party since 1992 and thus unable to corrode from within. No doubt he's playing from the Bannon textbook but I think he would rather destroy the Tory party than infiltrate it - much as he tried with UKIP. Also, there are many One Nation Tories who would have nothing to do with Farage.

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson's campaign must be rattling Farage. Let's hope they cannibalise each other.

N'ah....Farage isn't rattled. It's going exactly the way he hoped. Although he'll never admit it, what he really hopes is that they will be in yet another extension on November 1st - yes, he'll pretend to be as mad as hell about it, but it's what he wants - and yet another extension after that if necessary - right up to the next British General Election!

reslfj

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is nice in theory, but in practice....

Turning it around will also mean going back to the EU and resolving those issues the EU want resolved now.

.... it will then be him who will have to go back and make the concessions that the EU have been demanding all along.

A pointless and disastrous 'plan' worthy of Baldrick.

The WA text is only a prerequisite for beginning any negotiations in Brussels - its the easy part - just say Yes.

After the WA text - sans transition comes:

• no revoke option,
• no transition periods,
• no longer any 'Political Declaration' as some base for the trade talks
• ...

The UK will be in an impossible situation - and it's all over the UK.

• no time to negotiate,
• no future plan,
• long queues at the borders
• large day 1 loses in trade (cars, farm/fish to name a few),
• a lot will be breaking (NHS personel, flights, financial services, long haul driving, EURATOM and medicine ....)
• significant unemployment and increasing day by day

I'm afraid Baldrick's cunning plans were all much better - at least they use to include a turnip, that you could eat.

Lars

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But Farage has been outside the Tory party since 1992 and thus unable to corrode from within. No doubt he's playing from the Bannon textbook but I think he would rather destroy the Tory party than infiltrate it - much as he tried with UKIP. Also, there are many One Nation Tories who would have nothing to do with Farage.

Even better. By setting up a small party he can maintain control and ideological purity. Any mishaps and he can just set up another as he has done. Once his populism proves effective, he can use that to influence the Tories who have since become much more nationalistic in response to try and cover his base while alienating the whig element of the party. Farage gets to dodge responsibility by remaining pure and committed while the Tories actually try and fail to deliver on Brexit.

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

N'ah....Farage isn't rattled. It's going exactly the way he hoped. Although he'll never admit it, what he really hopes is that they will be in yet another extension on November 1st - yes, he'll pretend to be as mad as hell about it, but it's what he wants - and yet another extension after that if necessary - right up to the next British General Election!

I dunno. Farage is a populist and a liar but I don't doubt his sincerity when he says he wants Britain out of the EU asap and I think this is his primary motivation. Probably his only motivation in reality.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Even better. By setting up a small party he can maintain control and ideological purity. Any mishaps and he can just set up another as he has done. Once his populism proves effective, he can use that to influence the Tories who have since become much more nationalistic in response to try and cover his base while alienating the whig element of the party. Farage gets to dodge responsibility by remaining pure and committed while the Tories actually try and fail to deliver on Brexit.

Exactly. Spot on. The Tory party is fast becoming his glove puppet.

Laois_Man

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I dunno. Farage is a populist and a liar but I don't doubt his sincerity when he says he wants Britain out of the EU asap and I think this is his primary motivation. Probably his only motivation in reality.

Yes he wants the UK out of the EU, but I think he's got a fantasy in his head that he could end up being the actual Prime Minister who finally delivers it!

On a separate note, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has just said to Michael "We know the border issue...is not just a problem for your country. We have to see it as a European one and we will continue to do that, so you can be assured of our ongoing solidarity."

Professor Moriarty

Laois_Man wrote: »

Yes he wants the UK out of the EU, but I think he's got a fantasy in his head that he could end up being the actual Prime Minister who finally delivers it!

On a separate note, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has just said to Michael "We know the border issue...is not just a problem for your country. We have to see it as a European one and we will continue to do that, so you can be assured of our ongoing solidarity."

Possibly but, strangely, I actually think that Farage has more integrity than Johnson. Which isn't saying much but at least with Farage what you see is what you get. I think if Britain left the EU then Farage would melt away. Johnson will literally do or say anything to become PM.

Good to hear that Germany will support us. We really are going to need all the support we can get.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

Leadership would involve acting so as to discourage or impede the development of the division in the first place, and if that fails acting so as to foster work towards a consensus, and the marginalisation within the part of extremist views. In both parties, the leadership conspicuously failed to attempt any of this at any point.

I'm not here to defend or excuse Corbyn. I'm really not.

But the divisions about Europe across the political spectrum in the UK were there long before Corbyn. He hasn't the remotest chance of healing them within his own party, never mind the whole country but I doubt anyone has. Political re-alignment is much more likely than consensus.

The UK has a lot of growing up to do. Blame the education system, blame history - blame geography while you are at it. Its going to take them time and a lot of bitter pills (not to mention humble pie) before it does.

Corbyn has plenty of demons and its unfortunate that he is where he is at this important time. But neither he or any of his successors can do much to change a national delusion.

trellheim

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Even better. By setting up a small party he can maintain control and ideological purity. Any mishaps and he can just set up another as he has done. Once his populism proves effective, he can use that to influence the Tories who have since become much more nationalistic in response to try and cover his base while alienating the whig element of the party. Farage gets to dodge responsibility by remaining pure and committed while the Tories actually try and fail to deliver on Brexit.

In fairness the racism and utter awfulness meant he could not really stay with UKIP