Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas · 03-07-2019 10:00PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think the plan, forvboth BJ and Hunt, is to get some new proposal deal through the HoC and then present that as the only way to avoid No Deal to the EU.

Thus No Deal (which apparently isn't a problem!) will be the EUs fault.

Being that the backstop is, at least publicly, the main issue with the WA then it will probably be something along the lines of a fixed time frame.

That the EU have already rejected that already doesn't seem to register.

What do people think will be the response of Irish people to Leo and FG in such a scenario?

Don't forget the backstop was a UK proposal. Brexiteers speak of it as if the EU came up with the idea.

A Dub in Glasgo · 03-07-2019 10:18PM

Poll out tonight for the Times, it is embarrassing that Labour are so low

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 10:26PM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Poll out tonight for the Times, it is embarrassing that Labour are so low

Corbyn doing a magnificent job. The Johnson bounce isn't that great which should seriously worry the Tories.

J Mysterio · 03-07-2019 10:31PM

Michael D is on a state visit to Deutschland.
Invited Steinmeier to Ireland (accepted).
Said 'our nearest neighbour is throwing a tantrum'.

Strazdas · 03-07-2019 10:48PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Corbyn doing a magnificent job. The Johnson bounce isn't that great which should seriously worry the Tories.

One thing that jumps out here is that if there was a general election tomorrow, votes and seats would go all over the place.....it would be the craziest GE ever

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 10:51PM

Strazdas wrote: »

One thing that jumps out here is that if there was a general election tomorrow, votes and seats would go all over the place.....it would be the craziest GE ever

It would and with the FPTP it would be even crazier. And unrepresentative of course.

10000maniacs · 03-07-2019 10:54PM

When will politicians realise that sitting on the fence is always doomed to failure? Corbyn has blown a golden opportunity to get Labour back as Westminister kingpins. Too late to do anything now but watch Johnson drive the Uk over the cliff.

Strazdas · 03-07-2019 11:10PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It would and with the FPTP it would be even crazier. And unrepresentative of course.

It tells us how much of a disaster Brexit has become : Con and Lab were on about 80% two years ago

Loafing Oaf · 03-07-2019 11:19PM

Strazdas wrote: »

One thing that jumps out here is that if there was a general election tomorrow, votes and seats would go all over the place.....it would be the craziest GE ever

But it won't be tomorrow. I'd imagine if Brexit is resolved by the time of the election most of those Brexit Party votes would 'return' to the Tories.

Water John · 03-07-2019 11:21PM

The i paper has it that up to 70 Lb MPs could face deselection before a GE.
Add that to the mix.

lawred2 · 03-07-2019 11:30PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Hong Kong is adding another dimension to Brexit. UK can't point at treaties with China in one hand while busy shredding international treaties such as gfa in other.
They can pretty much forget about global Britain now, there won't be any favorable trade agreements between UK and soon to be largest economy.

Oh yes they can. Jezzer Hunt did exactly that tonight.

https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1146444975674142721?s=19

No sense of irony whatever

johnnyskeleton · 03-07-2019 11:51PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

To be fair, the EU tried to make this dreadful process as easy as possible for the UK, but they still managed to make an absolute balls of it. They were very patient, spelled out all the options, gave extensions, offered concessions. The EU are basically done now. UK - decide.

Perhaps, as Fintan O'Toole rather pithily remarkes before, in retrospect the EU should've said they absolutely refuse to give the UK a withdrawal agreement with a backstop, and should have insisted that the UK get no deal. Then all the Brexit supporters would be demanding the backstop and claiming that refusing to give them the backstop was bullying

joeysoap · 04-07-2019 01:15AM

Rabb again saying (Peston ) there will be no customs on the border. Farrage also interviewed. UK tv is very slanted at the moment, Peston did his best but with such lob sided guests ...........

Pablo Escobar · 04-07-2019 06:27AM

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Perhaps, as Fintan O'Toole rather pithily remarkes before, in retrospect the EU should've said they absolutely refuse to give the UK a withdrawal agreement with a backstop, and should have insisted that the UK get no deal. Then all the Brexit supporters would be demanding the backstop and claiming that refusing to give them the backstop was bullying

The EU have to be seen to be as accommodating as possible during the process. I do think that the EU are done now though. There's no chance they'll get the French to roll over again and I don't think it's in anyone's long-term interest anyway.

otnomart · 04-07-2019 06:48AM

George Osborne 'aiming for new role as head of IMF'

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/04/george-osborne-aiming-for-new-role-as-head-of-imf

Peregrinus · 04-07-2019 07:00AM

There's a speculative theory that BJ's plan is basically this:

1. Indicate appetite for no-deal Brexit in order to get elected as Tory leader.

2. But no-deal Brexit would be a disaster. He doesn't want to wear the political cost of being the PM who implements it.

3. One way out of this is if EU caves, agrees to talks on alternative to the backstop. This seems wildly unlikely to happen, and lets assume BJ is capable of seeing this. So what's plan B for not having to deliver a no-deal Brexit?

4. Lots of people recognise that it would be disaster, and will seek to avert it. If they are successful, it's win-win; he doesn't wear the costs of being the PM who implemented no-deal, and he also doesn't wear the costs of being the Tory leader who bottled on no-deal.

5. So if he can engineer matters so that he is seen to be moving towards no-deal Brexit, but is stopped by Other Forces, that would be nice.

6. There is a majority in the HoC that is opposed to no deal, but so far they have been too gutless to wear the political consequences of acting decisively to prevent it. Trick is to act in a way that stiffens the resolve of this majority, so they will act, so he doesn't have to.

7. Best prospect of being stopped by Other Forces is if those opposed to no-deal, including civil society organisations, industry bodies, trade unions, etc. get increasingly vocal, and HoC gets increasingly spooked. The more determined he seems to be to act in a way that will bring on no deal, and the more oblivious he pretends to be to the consequences, the more others will think no deal is a real possibility, and they must speak/act to prevent it. Hence his present rhetoric. Expect him to ramp it up signficantly once the Tory leadership contest is over, and he's installed, and the only way to stop him is for HoC to act. At that point the purpose of ramping it up will be to convince the HoC that they have to act to stop him.

It's a "stop me before I kill again!" strategy, basically.

Akrasia · 04-07-2019 08:50AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But it won't be tomorrow. I'd imagine if Brexit is resolved by the time of the election most of those Brexit Party votes would 'return' to the Tories.

Your imagination is all well and good, but brexit isn't going anywhere for a long time.

L1011 · 04-07-2019 08:52AM

otnomart wrote: »

George Osborne 'aiming for new role as head of IMF'

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/04/george-osborne-aiming-for-new-role-as-head-of-imf

Does he realise they'll make him give up his 5 other jobs?

Peregrinus · 04-07-2019 09:21AM

Akrasia wrote: »

Your imagination is all well and good, but brexit isn't going anywhere for a long time.

Brexit isn't going away, but the kind of passion that sustains a huge vote for a single-issue party may well recede. Once Brexit has formally happened, on any terms at all, I can't see a future for the Brexit party as movement attracting mass voting support.

It's a mistake to think, though, that the votes that leave the Brexit party will "go back" to the Tory party. In the first place, they didn't all come from the Tory party. In the second place, I think the Tory party has done real, long-term damage to itself through the colossal ineptitude with which they have prosecuted the Brexit project. This is visible not only to all the Remainers, but to most Brexiters as well. Once a rusted-on voting preference for the Tory party has been shattered, I don't think it will automatically reassert itself. I think as the Brexit party declines there'll be a lot of votes up for grabs.

jem · 04-07-2019 10:36AM

Problem at this stage Brexit has become dam near a religion with many in the uk and England in particular.
They feel that the are being bullied ( they aren't)
They feel that if they change course they will be the laughing stock of the world(opposite the case)
Many hark back to the days of the Empire and the British bulldog era ( its long gone)
The main leaders of the hard brexit are exceptionally wealthy and wouldnt matter a dam to them. ( the ordinary brexiteer being led by the nose by them)
A serious amount of the english actually dont give a dam about Scotland or Ireland and in reality see them as vassel states at best.
The Labour party is stuck with a leader the MP's dont want and the electorate wont vote for.
He is also and always has been anti EU.

I personally believe that if Labour could actually ditch Corburn and put say H Benn in as leader there would be a huge change in UK.The problem here is the party member vote and the momentum group in particular who are by and large extreme left win pro corburn.
I think Benn would cobble together a vote for a new referendum which while close would vote to remain IMHO.
Labour would win the next General election whether before or after a referendum.

I can honestly see a General Election before October 31 and under Borris and Corburn Tories dropping seats, Labour dropping seats , Bexit party and Lib Dems going up.

MrMusician18 · 04-07-2019 10:37AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Brexit isn't going away, but the kind of passion that sustains a huge vote for a single-issue party may well recede. Once Brexit has formally happened, on any terms at all, I can't see a future for the Brexit party as movement attracting mass voting support.

It's a mistake to think, though, that the votes that leave the Brexit party will "go back" to the Tory party. In the first place, they didn't all come from the Tory party. In the second place, I think the Tory party has done real, long-term damage to itself through the colossal ineptitude with which they have prosecuted the Brexit project. This is visible not only to all the Remainers, but to most Brexiters as well. Once a rusted-on voting preference for the Tory party has been shattered, I don't think it will automatically reassert itself. I think as the Brexit party declines there'll be a lot of votes up for grabs.

The Brexit party hasn't been tested in an election that the British care about though, so its hard to make a statement on their true level of support yet.

trellheim · 04-07-2019 10:55AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

There's a speculative theory that BJ's plan is basically this:

1. Indicate appetite for no-deal Brexit in order to get elected as Tory leader.

2. But no-deal Brexit would be a disaster. He doesn't want to wear the political cost of being the PM who implements it.

3. One way out of this is if EU caves, agrees to talks on alternative to the backstop. This seems wildly unlikely to happen, and lets assume BJ is capable of seeing this. So what's plan B for not having to deliver a no-deal Brexit?

4. Lots of people recognise that it would be disaster, and will seek to avert it. If they are successful, it's win-win; he doesn't wear the costs of being the PM who implemented no-deal, and he also doesn't wear the costs of being the Tory leader who bottled on no-deal.

5. So if he can engineer matters so that he is seen to be moving towards no-deal Brexit, but is stopped by Other Forces, that would be nice.

6. There is a majority in the HoC that is opposed to no deal, but so far they have been too gutless to wear the political consequences of acting decisively to prevent it. Trick is to act in a way that stiffens the resolve of this majority, so they will act, so he doesn't have to.

7. Best prospect of being stopped by Other Forces is if those opposed to no-deal, including civil society organisations, industry bodies, trade unions, etc. get increasingly vocal, and HoC gets increasingly spooked. The more determined he seems to be to act in a way that will bring on no deal, and the more oblivious he pretends to be to the consequences, the more others will think no deal is a real possibility, and they must speak/act to prevent it. Hence his present rhetoric. Expect him to ramp it up signficantly once the Tory leadership contest is over, and he's installed, and the only way to stop him is for HoC to act. At that point the purpose of ramping it up will be to convince the HoC that they have to act to stop him.

It's a "stop me before I kill again!" strategy, basically.

THat last line made me chuckle Theres a word/phrase for this behaviour (joking aside) its
not post hoc ergo propter hoc but its along those lines.

54and56 · 04-07-2019 10:55AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The Brexit party hasn't been tested in an election that the British care about though, so its hard to make a statement on their true level of support yet.

IMHO if there's a GE before the exiting stage of Brexit is complete the Tories will be wiped out and Labour will suffer massively also.

Brexit focused Tories (85% of Tories?) will switch to the Brexit Party as will a lot of Brexit Labour voters with a lot of Remain favouring Tories and Labour voters switching to Lib Dems unless Labour changes course and goes full throttle Remain.

Sam Russell · 04-07-2019 10:55AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The Brexit party hasn't been tested in an election that the British care about though, so its hard to make a statement on their true level of support yet.

The BP are a single issue party that has no manifesto, no track record, and once the issue they stand for is dealt with, have no real future.

How many of the 'members'* of the BP agree about any other issue? Look what happened to UKIP when race became an issue.

* BP do not have members, merely supporters, as it is a company masquerading as a political party with no manifesto and no constitution.

murphaph · 04-07-2019 10:58AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The Brexit party hasn't been tested in an election that the British care about though, so its hard to make a statement on their true level of support yet.

They have. They lost to Labour in the Peterborough by election, despite Peterborough being a strong leave constituency.

Leroy42 · 04-07-2019 10:58AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Brexit isn't going away, but the kind of passion that sustains a huge vote for a single-issue party may well recede. Once Brexit has formally happened, on any terms at all, I can't see a future for the Brexit party as movement attracting mass voting support.

But for a voting public that have shown that they have very little actual idea of the reality, Brexit Day will be sold as Brexit being delivered. That is why both Johnson and Hunt are pushing this idea that it must be delivered on that day.

Both of them know that it is far from being delivered. Whether WA or No Deal, the real work begins once they leave.

But the normal voter will not hear, or care,about trade deals. They will only hear of them when they are signed and have no real idea about the details.

Leroy42 · 04-07-2019 11:06AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

The BP are a single issue party that has no manifesto, no track record, and once the issue they stand for is dealt with, have no real future.

How many of the 'members'* of the BP agree about any other issue? Look what happened to UKIP when race became an issue.

* BP do not have members, merely supporters, as it is a company masquerading as a political party with no manifesto and no constitution.

Totally agree. UKIP fell apart for a number of reasons, but mainly because the issue they fought on, Brexit, was acheived (or at least the ref was won).

Where the problems start for any party is trying to agree on issues and keep a single line. BP is basically Farage at the top making all the decisions, and the rest of them just need to agree to that. The issues start when these individuals start to be questioned away from the central HQ.

What are you going to do for the local hospital? What about the schools? My Aunt Edna needs a nusing home but none is available, do something. What about nuclear energy, why are utility bills continuing to rise. What will do about the LGBT rights? HS2, Northern Power House, Climate Change.

BP, and UKIP before them, offer nothing on anything other that hating the EU. It is why Johnson and Hunt are determined to leave the EU in October. Not because they think it is the best course of action for UK, but because it will deal a fatal blow to Farage. Give it three months, MEP's have all gone, no MP's, UK has left the EU. What reason in the world would anybody want to invite Farage on to talk about anything.

Sam Russell · 04-07-2019 11:10AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But for a voting public that have shown that they have very little actual idea of the reality, Brexit Day will be sold as Brexit being delivered. That is why both Johnson and Hunt are pushing this idea that it must be delivered on that day.

Both of them know that it is far from being delivered. Whether WA or No Deal, the real work begins once they leave.

But the normal voter will not hear, or care,about trade deals. They will only hear of them when they are signed and have no real idea about the details.

I caught a few moments on News Night (BBC2) where they discussed the effect on the EU and UK of a no deal Brexit. They showed, using a graphic, that the EU would suffer nearly nothing, but the effect on the UK would be huge, but ignored the 40% non EU exports. Now those non EU exports will be effected by the disappearance on the many EU trade deals that the UK uses for much of that 48%. Canada has refused to rollover their EU trade deal for the UK, but the Faeroe Islands have done a great deal with the UK.

No mention was made on non-tariff barriers such as Cert of Origin requirements, product standards, etc. that will also effect trade. They also did not mention the effect on services.

However, facts are now being shown on BBC that are not favourable to Brexit.

Progress but a bit late in the day.

Leroy42 · 04-07-2019 11:19AM

Yes, but all of that will simply go to the background when Brexit is delivered (based on Tory and Farage definition of delivered).

Normal people care little about tariffs, cert of origins. You won't see prices in shops declaring that a product is 99p but with an additional costs of 10p for tariff and customs work. The item will smaller or the price will go up. Nothing will actually be mentioned.

The people who voted for BRexit do not value, or not above sovereignty, free trade within the EU and the EU trade deals that allow UK to trade with 3rd countries. They see Canada as refusing to live up to the CETA trade deal, when of course there is no living up to do. The UK need to start from scratch on that, and all other, trade deals.

Sam Russell · 04-07-2019 11:49AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Yes, but all of that will simply go to the background when Brexit is delivered (based on Tory and Farage definition of delivered).

Normal people care little about tariffs, cert of origins. You won't see prices in shops declaring that a product is 99p but with an additional costs of 10p for tariff and customs work. The item will smaller or the price will go up. Nothing will actually be mentioned.

The people who voted for BRexit do not value, or not above sovereignty, free trade within the EU and the EU trade deals that allow UK to trade with 3rd countries. They see Canada as refusing to live up to the CETA trade deal, when of course there is no living up to do. The UK need to start from scratch on that, and all other, trade deals.

Well, they will notice the roaming charges when they get to their European destination, that is after their queue at immigration. Of course, they never joined Schengen, nor the Euro, so they never got the free access and no need to change their dosh. That is what comes from being semi-detached EU members.

They will notice the inflation caused by C&E charges, the fall in the GBP, which is tipping 90p to the Euro, being at 85p in early May. Last quarter saw negative growth, with the current quarter expected to be negative as well, so recession beckons.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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