Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 01:41PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is the tweet:

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1146364603334627328

It didn't take long before they turned on each other!

Johnson's campaign must be rattling Farage. Let's hope they cannibalise each other.

ancapailldorcha · 03-07-2019 02:00PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson's campaign must be rattling Farage. Let's hope they cannibalise each other.

That's not what happens though. Look at the Tea Party in the US. They started within the Republican party and grew. They ousted several long standing, mainstream conservatives. Trump would not have gained the nomination in the GOP of 2008. The Overton window shifted rightwards.

Farage wants to replicate this feat with the Conservative party. Look at his links with the American right. He's playing a long game and, unfortunately doing in well given the open goals he's aiming at.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 02:06PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

That's not what happens though. Look at the Tea Party in the US. They started within the Republican party and grew. They ousted several long standing, mainstream conservatives. Trump would not have gained the nomination in the GOP of 2008. The Overton window shifted rightwards.

Farage wants to replicate this feat with the Conservative party. Look at his links with the American right. He's playing a long game and, unfortunately doing in well given the open goals he's aiming at.

But Farage has been outside the Tory party since 1992 and thus unable to corrode from within. No doubt he's playing from the Bannon textbook but I think he would rather destroy the Tory party than infiltrate it - much as he tried with UKIP. Also, there are many One Nation Tories who would have nothing to do with Farage.

Laois_Man · 03-07-2019 02:21PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Johnson's campaign must be rattling Farage. Let's hope they cannibalise each other.

N'ah....Farage isn't rattled. It's going exactly the way he hoped. Although he'll never admit it, what he really hopes is that they will be in yet another extension on November 1st - yes, he'll pretend to be as mad as hell about it, but it's what he wants - and yet another extension after that if necessary - right up to the next British General Election!

reslfj · 03-07-2019 02:27PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

This is nice in theory, but in practice....

Turning it around will also mean going back to the EU and resolving those issues the EU want resolved now.

.... it will then be him who will have to go back and make the concessions that the EU have been demanding all along.

A pointless and disastrous 'plan' worthy of Baldrick.

The WA text is only a prerequisite for beginning any negotiations in Brussels - its the easy part - just say Yes.

After the WA text - sans transition comes:

no revoke option,
no transition periods,
no longer any 'Political Declaration' as some base for the trade talks
...

The UK will be in an impossible situation - and it's all over the UK.

no time to negotiate,
no future plan,
long queues at the borders
large day 1 loses in trade (cars, farm/fish to name a few),
a lot will be breaking (NHS personel, flights, financial services, long haul driving, EURATOM and medicine ....)
significant unemployment and increasing day by day

I'm afraid Baldrick's cunning plans were all much better - at least they use to include a turnip, that you could eat.

Lars

ancapailldorcha · 03-07-2019 02:29PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

But Farage has been outside the Tory party since 1992 and thus unable to corrode from within. No doubt he's playing from the Bannon textbook but I think he would rather destroy the Tory party than infiltrate it - much as he tried with UKIP. Also, there are many One Nation Tories who would have nothing to do with Farage.

Even better. By setting up a small party he can maintain control and ideological purity. Any mishaps and he can just set up another as he has done. Once his populism proves effective, he can use that to influence the Tories who have since become much more nationalistic in response to try and cover his base while alienating the whig element of the party. Farage gets to dodge responsibility by remaining pure and committed while the Tories actually try and fail to deliver on Brexit.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 02:30PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

N'ah....Farage isn't rattled. It's going exactly the way he hoped. Although he'll never admit it, what he really hopes is that they will be in yet another extension on November 1st - yes, he'll pretend to be as mad as hell about it, but it's what he wants - and yet another extension after that if necessary - right up to the next British General Election!

I dunno. Farage is a populist and a liar but I don't doubt his sincerity when he says he wants Britain out of the EU asap and I think this is his primary motivation. Probably his only motivation in reality.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 02:31PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Even better. By setting up a small party he can maintain control and ideological purity. Any mishaps and he can just set up another as he has done. Once his populism proves effective, he can use that to influence the Tories who have since become much more nationalistic in response to try and cover his base while alienating the whig element of the party. Farage gets to dodge responsibility by remaining pure and committed while the Tories actually try and fail to deliver on Brexit.

Exactly. Spot on. The Tory party is fast becoming his glove puppet.

Laois_Man · 03-07-2019 02:42PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I dunno. Farage is a populist and a liar but I don't doubt his sincerity when he says he wants Britain out of the EU asap and I think this is his primary motivation. Probably his only motivation in reality.

Yes he wants the UK out of the EU, but I think he's got a fantasy in his head that he could end up being the actual Prime Minister who finally delivers it!

On a separate note, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has just said to Michael

"We know the border issue...is not just a problem for your country. We have to see it as a European one and we will continue to do that, so you can be assured of our ongoing solidarity."

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 02:46PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Yes he wants the UK out of the EU, but I think he's got a fantasy in his head that he could end up being the actual Prime Minister who finally delivers it!

On a separate note, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier has just said to Michael "We know the border issue...is not just a problem for your country. We have to see it as a European one and we will continue to do that, so you can be assured of our ongoing solidarity."

Possibly but, strangely, I actually think that Farage has more integrity than Johnson. Which isn't saying much but at least with Farage what you see is what you get. I think if Britain left the EU then Farage would melt away. Johnson will literally do or say anything to become PM.

Good to hear that Germany will support us. We really are going to need all the support we can get.

First Up · 03-07-2019 03:34PM

Peregrinus wrote:

Leadership would involve acting so as to discourage or impede the development of the division in the first place, and if that fails acting so as to foster work towards a consensus, and the marginalisation within the part of extremist views. In both parties, the leadership conspicuously failed to attempt any of this at any point.

I'm not here to defend or excuse Corbyn. I'm really not.

But the divisions about Europe across the political spectrum in the UK were there long before Corbyn. He hasn't the remotest chance of healing them within his own party, never mind the whole country but I doubt anyone has. Political re-alignment is much more likely than consensus.

The UK has a lot of growing up to do. Blame the education system, blame history - blame geography while you are at it. Its going to take them time and a lot of bitter pills (not to mention humble pie) before it does.

Corbyn has plenty of demons and its unfortunate that he is where he is at this important time. But neither he or any of his successors can do much to change a national delusion.

trellheim · 03-07-2019 04:05PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Even better. By setting up a small party he can maintain control and ideological purity. Any mishaps and he can just set up another as he has done. Once his populism proves effective, he can use that to influence the Tories who have since become much more nationalistic in response to try and cover his base while alienating the whig element of the party. Farage gets to dodge responsibility by remaining pure and committed while the Tories actually try and fail to deliver on Brexit.

In fairness the racism and utter awfulness meant he could not really stay with UKIP

trellheim · 03-07-2019 04:19PM

reslfj wrote: »

The WA text is only a prerequisite for beginning any negotiations in Brussels - its the easy part - just say Yes.

After the WA text - sans transition comes:
no revoke option,

no transition periods,

no longer any 'Political Declaration' as some base for the trade talks

...

The UK will be in an impossible situation - and it's all over the UK.
no time to negotiate,

no future plan,

long queues at the borders

large day 1 loses in trade (cars, farm/fish to name a few),

a lot will be breaking (NHS personel, flights, financial services, long haul driving, EURATOM and medicine ....)

significant unemployment and increasing day by day

I'm afraid Baldrick's cunning plans were all much better - at least they use to include a turnip, that you could eat.

Lars

What is fast becoming obvious is none of it matters bar saving the Tory party.

Let's face it. Barring climbdowns now there is now no way out beyond no-deal unless the smoke-filled room has a climbdown position, and I cant see one that keeps the DUP onside.

With Bercow voting Grieve and Becketts amendment out of order on turning off the taps to the estimates then proroguing and no deal is all still on the table

ancapailldorcha · 03-07-2019 04:23PM

trellheim wrote: »

In fairness the racism and utter awfulness meant he could not really stay with UKIP

The racism got more overt after he left. Remember his "I want my life back" comment in 2016. Successive UKIP leaders have morphed it into a party based on ethnic nationalism. Brexit is just part of that and thankfully, they got nuked in the EU elections.

BluePlanet · 03-07-2019 05:19PM

France makes a post-Brexit grab for UK's game developers
French government promises tax breaks and subsidies for companies who relocate
https://www.theguardian.com/games/2019/jul/03/france-makes-a-post-brexit-grab-for-uks-game-developers

Why aren't we doing this?

VinLieger · 03-07-2019 05:28PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

France makes a post-Brexit grab for UK's game developers
French government promises tax breaks and subsidies for companies who relocate
https://www.theguardian.com/games/2019/jul/03/france-makes-a-post-brexit-grab-for-uks-game-developers

Why aren't we doing this?

Because when it comes to tech, especially game development our politicians are clueless, they are focused solely on customer service jobs in that sector

kunst nugget · 03-07-2019 05:41PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

France makes a post-Brexit grab for UK's game developers
French government promises tax breaks and subsidies for companies who relocate
https://www.theguardian.com/games/2019/jul/03/france-makes-a-post-brexit-grab-for-uks-game-developers

Why aren't we doing this?

Probably because France already has a well established games industry with major hitters like Ubisoft in the mix.

serfboard · 03-07-2019 05:57PM

trellheim wrote: »

In fairness the racism and utter awfulness meant he could not really stay with UKIP

I would argue that racism and awfulness was the logical destination for UKIP.

Just as it will be for the Brexit Party too.

Strazdas · 03-07-2019 06:17PM

Here is Ursula von der Leyen speaking in favour of the backstop on German TV in April. She seems very au fait with the issue and the sensitivities :

https://twitter.com/AnneWillTalk/status/1115152831533785088

First Up · 03-07-2019 06:39PM

VinLieger wrote:

Because when it comes to tech, especially game development our politicians are clueless, they are focused solely on customer service jobs in that sector

Its the role of the IDA so maybe ask them.

VinLieger · 03-07-2019 07:34PM

First Up wrote: »

Its the role of the IDA so maybe ask them.

Its not the role of the IDA to introduce tax breaks and subsidies

VinLieger · 03-07-2019 07:42PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Probably because France already has a well established games industry with major hitters like Ubisoft in the mix.

We have a respectable indie scene and number of decent game app devs, also riot have a sizeable office here, not forgetting all the middleware like Havok that was started and is headquartered here, again our politicians are clueless about this kind of industry unless its worth a photo op.

Ill stop now as this is way off topic

First Up · 03-07-2019 08:04PM

VinLieger wrote:

Its not the role of the IDA to introduce tax breaks and subsidies

It is the IDA's role which sectors to target.

Tell me how · 03-07-2019 08:51PM

VinLieger wrote: »

We have a respectable indie scene and number of decent game app devs, also riot have a sizeable office here, not forgetting all the middleware like Havok that was started and is headquartered here, again our politicians are clueless about this kind of industry unless its worth a photo op.

Ill stop now as this is way off topic

Just one final point, that is still a pretty niche industry. You couldn't expect 160 politicians out of 5M in the country to be up to speed with that. I bet there are SME's in the IDA and enterprise offices which would be aware of both the skillset here and the potential for new jobs.

Joe_ Public · 03-07-2019 08:53PM

Not offended by that cartoon but its a sign, i think, of how uglier things are going to get when the gloves well and truly come off. Johnson has an interview in the Spectator tomorrow calling Ireland and the other 26 out on whether they plan to erect a hard border in the event of no deal. I doubt very much any of them will respond to the provocation but if it has to be faced up to at some stage, it will be interesting to see what the actual answer is.

Professor Moriarty · 03-07-2019 09:17PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Not offended by that cartoon but its a sign, i think, of how uglier things are going to get when the gloves well and truly come off. Johnson has an interview in the Spectator tomorrow calling Ireland and the other 26 out on whether they plan to erect a hard border in the event of no deal. I doubt very much any of them will respond to the provocation but if it has to be faced up to at some stage, it will be interesting to see what the actual answer is.

That's fine. He can deal with the fallout from a very angry Nationalist community. Threats can work both ways.

Tigerbaby · 03-07-2019 09:27PM

long time lurker, and appreciative of the general intelligence on display here.

Yet I feel we are in an echo chamber, apart from one or two.

I see this is a classic "Madness of Crowds" episode we are witnessing in Britain.

Is there any way, whatsoever, that there could not be an "intervention" by external, respected observers? Maybe the Dalai Lama, I don't know.

To help some of the British to reflect and retract their increasing doggedness.

As a Parent, I would be remiss if I didnt intervene with some hard truths at this stage if one of my children were on this suicidial course.

They need help.
Simply.
Can we not assist and dig them from their own hole?

Spanish Eyes · 03-07-2019 09:34PM

Tigerbaby wrote: »

long time lurker, and appreciative of the general intelligence on display here.

Yet I feel we are in an echo chamber, apart from one or two.

I see this is a classic "Madness of Crowds" episode we are witnessing in Britain.

Is there any way, whatsoever, that there could not be an "intervention" by external, respected observers? Maybe the Dalai Lama, I don't know.

To help some of the British to reflect and retract their increasing doggedness.

As a Parent, I would be remiss if I didnt intervene with some hard truths at this stage if one of my children were on this suicidial course.

They need help.
Simply.
Can we not assist and dig them from their own hole?

We are dealing with hubristic people here. They really do think that the whole world will bow down and love them and they hold all the cards.

But leaving that aside, there will be no intervention by anyone. It would only be twisted by the UK media somehow.

We will just have to wait now.

J Mysterio · 03-07-2019 09:39PM

To be fair, the EU tried to make this dreadful process as easy as possible for the UK, but they still managed to make an absolute balls of it. They were very patient, spelled out all the options, gave extensions, offered concessions. The EU are basically done now. UK - decide.

And it will be Boris.

Leroy42 · 03-07-2019 09:43PM

I think the plan, forvboth BJ and Hunt, is to get some new proposal deal through the HoC and then present that as the only way to avoid No Deal to the EU.

Thus No Deal (which apparently isn't a problem!) will be the EUs fault.

Being that the backstop is, at least publicly, the main issue with the WA then it will probably be something along the lines of a fixed time frame.

That the EU have already rejected that already doesn't seem to register.

What do people think will be the response of Irish people to Leo and FG in such a scenario?

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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