Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Inquitus · 30-06-2019 09:49AM

The EU consumes 8m Tonnes of beef annually, the Mercosur quotas will be around 2.5% of that, not sure its statistically significant enough to get our knickers in a twist over, Brexit is a far bigger threat to that industry.

Shelga · 30-06-2019 09:49AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I think you mean ". . . the paid spokesman of Facebook Nick Clegg who has access to Facebook's records and so can confirm the extraordinary sums that Facebook received from the Leave campaign for advertising, but who doesn't have access to the Leave campaign's accounts and so has no idea where the Leave campaign got those sums, but arch-Brexiters like to try and create the impression that he does in a desperate attempt to try and create the impression that the Leave campaign has nothing to hide."

Exactly! Nick Clegg lost any shred of credibility or integrity he ever had, when he took that role at Facebook. He is just a paid mouthpiece now who will do as he is told. Quite disappointing really, I used to like him when he was leader of the Lib Dems.

BobbyBobberson · 30-06-2019 09:52AM

Shelga wrote: »

Exactly! Nick Clegg lost any shred of credibility or integrity he ever had, when he took that role at Facebook. He is just a paid mouthpiece now who will do as he is told. Quite disappointing really, I used to like him when he was leader of the Lib Dems.

Gone before that I would say. Student fees being his biggest gaffe. Also allowing a cut in welfare for 5p charges on plastic bags.

The Olly Robbins hate is bizarre. The man must laugh when he hears people are delighted he is leaving. He had a ridiculously hard brief thanks to May's redlines and got as best a deal he could. Not like he had a competent and stable government backing him.

20silkcut · 30-06-2019 10:05AM

Inquitus wrote: »

The EU consumes 8m Tonnes of beef annually, the Mercosur quotas will be around 2.5% of that, not sure its statistically significant enough to get our knickers in a twist over, Brexit is a far bigger threat to that industry.

The curates egg comes to mind.

So only 2.5% of beef on our shelves is potentially dodgy.

Very re-assuring.

Inquitus · 30-06-2019 10:21AM

20silkcut wrote: »

The curates egg comes to mind.

So only 2.5% of beef on our shelves is potentially dodgy.

Very re-assuring.

It's not gonna make much headway here, all our stores clearly label irish beef with the bord bia stamp, no chance of me buying dodgy beef. Even McDees and BK only use Irish beef.

20silkcut · 30-06-2019 10:24AM

Inquitus wrote: »

It's not gonna make much headway here, all our stores clearly label irish beef with the bord bia stamp, no chance of me buying dodgy beef. Even McDees and BK only use Irish beef.

Ok grand I don’t want to get into a back and forth here in this issue.

But all I will say is you could be served dodgy beef in a restaurant etc etc. And not everyone will be as selective about their beef. Public health is being put at risk without the ability to trace problems and issues in the supply chain.

I think it’s important to just highlight the reality of the situation here and how brexit is going to pose such huge challenges to the integrity of the EU.
Obviously the EU is forseeing serious choppy waters ahead that it went ahead and signed this deal. That’s what worries me. It is very much out of character.
These are strange times.

Capt'n Midnight · 30-06-2019 11:05AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Would this not put the fear of God into Farmers in NI, who are a big part of the DUP grass roots.

Could the increased threat of a hard border put pressure on the DUP to relax their principles?

The big issue for NI farmers is that the EU's Common Agricultural Policy is what provides most of their income, apart from pig farmers.

https://factcheckni.org/facts/europe/do-our-farmers-receive-62-of-income-from-eu/

Grove promised £3Bn UK wide to replace EU funds. But there were environmental strings attached. And since he backstabbed Boris it's unlikely he'll be in a position to deliver.

Shelga · 30-06-2019 11:05AM

Jeremy Hunt is heavily pushing his policy of reducing the corporate tax rate to 12.5% if he is elected as PM- 'just like Ireland'.

Also says that if the only way to leave the EU is with no deal 'then I will do that.'

The economy will tank in the case of a no deal exit, so he can reduce corporation tax as much as he wants- if businesses are making less money then that's significantly less tax for the exchequer anyway.

Marr asks him again about his terrifying comments at the hustings in Birmingham that he thinks destroying companies like that one in Kidderminster is worth it for ideological reasons, he says "I would do it with a heavy heart." Is he actually insane? How was this party ever considered the party of business?

Beechwoodspark · 30-06-2019 11:07AM

Shelga wrote: »

Jeremy Hunt is heavily pushing his policy of reducing the corporate tax rate to 12.5% if he is elected as PM- 'just like Ireland'.

Also says that if the only way to leave the EU is with no deal 'then I will do that.'

The economy will tank in the case of a no deal exit, so he can reduce corporation tax as much as he wants- if businesses are making less money then that's significantly less tax for the exchequer anyway.

Marr asks him again about his terrifying comments at the hustings in Birmingham that he thinks destroying companies like that one in Kidderminster is worth it for ideological reasons, he says "I would do it with a heavy heart." Is he actually insane? How was this party ever considered the party of business?

Don’t forget who his electorate is this time -

Largely elderly and out of touch Home Counties golf club set who want Brexit at any cost. “Get on with it” is the mantra.

Shelga · 30-06-2019 11:12AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Don’t forget who his electorate is this time -

Largely elderly and out of touch Home Counties golf club set who want Brexit at any cost. “Get on with it” is the mantra.

I get that, but are Conservative party members really so heartless and uncaring about their fellow citizens? Or do they really believe that the plucky British WW2 spirit will see them through and it really won't be as bad as all that? I hope they're delusional rather than spiteful.

And shouldn't Hunt be challenging this line of thought, either way? Oh yeah, that would require him to have a spine.

I was over in England meeting up with some old work colleagues on Friday. A few of them are fairly Brexity. They agree the whole thing is a mess, but still want to leave. We didn't spend too long chatting about it though as I just find it so unbelievably depressing at this point.

ancapailldorcha · 30-06-2019 11:12AM

Shelga wrote: »

Exactly! Nick Clegg lost any shred of credibility or integrity he ever had, when he took that role at Facebook. He is just a paid mouthpiece now who will do as he is told. Quite disappointing really, I used to like him when he was leader of the Lib Dems.

As BobbyBobberson has said, it was the tuition fees scandal that killed his career. Austerity surely didn't help either, mind.

I was a tad hopeful when he took the Facebook job. He's a big believer in privacy and vetoed May's attempts to bring in the snooper's charter during the coalition years. I don't know if he'll be able to, or even inclined to do much at Facebook though.

BobbyBobberson · 30-06-2019 11:26AM

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Don’t forget who his electorate is this time -

Largely elderly and out of touch Home Counties golf club set who want Brexit at any cost. “Get on with it” is the mantra.

Absolutely, I don't know does anyone follow Tim Montgomerie on Twitter (founder of conservative home) but he tweeted the other day from speaking at Owen Pattersons house and the crowd just made me LOL. Not representative of the UK should we say.

These 150,000 people voting for the next PM and the outcome of Brexit all have their money made and will be insulated from all of this. In fact should an almighty crash happen post Brexit then most will buy some cheap property I imagine. 1/6 of Boomers in the UK own a second home, they are all sorted.

MrMusician18 · 30-06-2019 11:44AM

Inquitus wrote: »

It's not gonna make much headway here, all our stores clearly label irish beef with the bord bia stamp, no chance of me buying dodgy beef. Even McDees and BK only use Irish beef.

That's not the market this beef is really aiming for. It's after ready meals, low end restaurants and the like.

Seth Brundle · 30-06-2019 11:49AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Dont recall seeing this at the time, but brilliant speech.

Recorded at the Pierhead on the 21st February 2018, Dáithí O’Ceallaigh (former Irish Ambassador in London) shares his sobering assessment of Brexit, from an Irish Perspective. This event was hosted by the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University.

Great speech!
I’d love to see the Q&A session after that.

J Mysterio · 30-06-2019 01:41PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Great speech!
I’d love to see the Q&A session after that.

Same, shame it was cut.

jm08 · 30-06-2019 01:45PM

Shelga wrote: »

Jeremy Hunt is heavily pushing his policy of reducing the corporate tax rate to 12.5% if he is elected as PM- 'just like Ireland'.

Also says that if the only way to leave the EU is with no deal 'then I will do that.'

The economy will tank in the case of a no deal exit, so he can reduce corporation tax as much as he wants- if businesses are making less money then that's significantly less tax for the exchequer anyway.

Marr asks him again about his terrifying comments at the hustings in Birmingham that he thinks destroying companies like that one in Kidderminster is worth it for ideological reasons, he says "I would do it with a heavy heart." Is he actually insane? How was this party ever considered the party of business?

I watched that. Its very misleading the way he claims that Ireland became prosperous because of the 12.5% corporate tax rate without mentioning that access to the single market was probably more important.

Leroy42 · 30-06-2019 01:50PM

And that Ireland had little other choice but to do that (or at least to do something different from other countries) as we had little other advantages and needed it to kick start a badly underperforming economy.

UK does not suffer any of that. A strong economy, an advanced country both in terms of infrastructure and business, a centre of trade.

Water John · 30-06-2019 02:04PM

Not to derail but years ago I met my boss at the the time for lunch. He ordered the steak and commented afterwards how nice it was. I hadn't the heart or inclination to tell him that the hotel had been outed the week before as using Brazilian beef. Just had a wry smile to myself.
That's who will use such beef. Someone chasing the cheapest.

Nody · 30-06-2019 02:56PM

On a side note EU signed a FTA with Vietnam today (assuming ratification which should not be a major stumble block) removing 99% of all tariffs which is yet another FTA for UK to create afterwards. The number of countries that "they were going to write new FTAs with" that EU did not have are shrinking fast...

Laois_Man · 30-06-2019 03:28PM

Just watched BJ on Sophy Ridge - still won't rule out proroguing parliament, is still convinced that the EU leaders including Varadkar are not being genuine when they saw the WA will not be reopened - is still ranting about the EU's losses in car sales as the classic example of their "powerful incentive" to reopen it - and in the next breath still says the will hold back the £39 Billion until they get a deal.

:rolleyes:

Ridge isn't as bad as most, but I would like to have seen her press him further on the logic of the EU destroying its own future existence for the sake of selling a load of cars to the UK, most of which they are still going to sell anyway!

devnull · 30-06-2019 07:07PM

Didn't see this on TV, but Boris sat down with Sophy Ridge on Sky News today:
https://news.sky.com/story/the-full-transcript-of-sophy-ridges-interview-with-boris-johnson-11751712

Some of his answers are pretty odd and scary, clearly didn't know what the minimum wage was in the UK among other things and dressed it up as mistaking it for the London living wage, which paints him as someone who is in something of a bubble. Also seems to promise a lot that he won't be able to deliver on.

Also trying to suck up to her a lot as well, particularly at the end.

Scoondal · 30-06-2019 07:46PM

On topic : UK is now likely to leave EU with "No Deal" from EU. Is Ireland prepared for this likely chaos ?

Professor Moriarty · 30-06-2019 07:47PM

Scoondal wrote: »

On topic : UK is now likely to leave EU with "No Deal" from EU. Is Ireland prepared for this likely chaos ?

It's very possible but it's not likely.

McGiver · 30-06-2019 09:18PM

Nody wrote:

today (assuming ratification which should not be a major stumble block) removing 99% of all tariffs which is yet another FTA for UK to create afterwards. The number of countries that "they were going to write new FTAs with" that EU did not have are shrinking fast...

But but but those would be English deals!
Without any bloody German and French having input or god prevent the tiny nation of Estonians!

They seriously talk this line in the media now.

Not a single one of them is able to reply question on:
1. What deal they will make which the EU either doesn't have or prevent them from having?
2. Most importantly, what are they going to offer and sell in those magical deals? Turnips? Given they are mostly a service economy and in the process of detonating a nuclear bomb under their manufacturing base.

Peregrinus · 01-07-2019 02:19AM

20silkcut wrote: »

Yes without getting into too much detail there are massive ongoing food safety concerns with Brazilian beef and the US and China have banned its import.

A quick google will tell ya all you need to know.

And yes it does tie into brexit.
This demonstrates that the EU is fully prepared to abandon its own standards in light of the brexit situation it is a very worrying development.
It is the throw under the bus moment.
We just did not predict it would be this bus.
And it may not be the last thing thrown under a bus.

I have to say, no, I don't think so. The Mercosur trade agreement doesn't come with any exemptions from EU product standards. It only authorises the increased importation of beef which meets EU standards, and the EU continues to police standards on the ground in Brazil. There have been problems with Brazilian beef exports to other countries, but the EU is much more active in enforcement of its product standards, and has at various time imposed blanket bans on Brazilian beef, bans on beef from specified provinces of Brazil or bans on beef other than from specified Brazilian ranches. The Mercosur deal doesn't change any of this. If there is evidnece of quality problems with Brazilian beef imported into the EU, now is the time to link to it.

murphaph · 01-07-2019 08:05AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I have to say, no, I don't think so. The Mercosur trade agreement doesn't come with any exemptions from EU product standards. It only authorises the increased importation of beef which meets EU standards, and the EU continues to police standards on the ground in Brazil. There have been problems with Brazilian beef exports to other countries, but the EU is much more active in enforcement of its product standards, and has at various time imposed blanket bans on Brazilian beef, bans on beef from specified provinces of Brazil or bans on beef other than from specified Brazilian ranches. The Mercosur deal doesn't change any of this. If there is evidnece of quality problems with Brazilian beef imported into the EU, now is the time to link to it.

And it's not as if we haven't had periodic scares within the EU too (BSE in British beef, Dioxins in Irish pork and Dutch & German eggs, miss-labelled horse meat etc.). The thing is the EU reacts to these things and they do happen less frequently than other places around the world. I think that given how seriously the EU takes food safety, it's unfair to state that authorised imports from Mercosur countries would be dangerous to public health.

Even within the EU countries can ban imports from other countries if there is a health concern (for example British beef for many years after BSE was discovered). I have no doubts that Brazilian beef would be banned too if there were concerns, FTA or no FTA. An FTA is not a licence to send sub-standard produce to the EU.

20silkcut · 01-07-2019 08:49AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

I have to say, no, I don't think so. The Mercosur trade agreement doesn't come with any exemptions from EU product standards. It only authorises the increased importation of beef which meets EU standards, and the EU continues to police standards on the ground in Brazil. There have been problems with Brazilian beef exports to other countries, but the EU is much more active in enforcement of its product standards, and has at various time imposed blanket bans on Brazilian beef, bans on beef from specified provinces of Brazil or bans on beef other than from specified Brazilian ranches. The Mercosur deal doesn't change any of this. If there is evidnece of quality problems with Brazilian beef imported into the EU, now is the time to link to it.

The quality of the beef is not the issue. Beef is beef. If there are issues it can be easily banned or restricted.
It’s the traceability regime that is undermined in this deal. Some Brazilian cattle are not tagged until they arrive at the factory. Or they are tagged in batches.They could come from anywhere and could be originally from areas with foot and mouth, which is rampant in South America. Boundaries between farms are non existent in some areas.
In the EU every single animal can be traced back to every farm it was on right back to the original farm the day it was born. Why have such an advanced highly technical system of tracing, which is an onerous system to maintain for everyone involved ,if there is beef being shipped halfway across the world to be sold beside our beef with no such traceability. What is the point of the traceability system?? If someone dies, yes you can trace the animal back to Brazil. But can the root cause be identified?? Yes they can ban Brazilian beef but , will they jeopardize the entire FTA over the deaths of one or two people?? Any bans will be fairly temporary I think. And while EU inspectors can force standards upwards in processing facilities etc the systemic traceability issues would take years to improve if ever.
Farmers in the EU could now have a case for abandoning traceability it would cut some serious costs and a huge amount of stress. Make Eu farmers a lot more competitive too.
Maybe we could clear forests like Brazilian farmers too.

An Claidheamh · 01-07-2019 08:53AM

Scoondal wrote: »

On topic : UK is now likely to leave EU with "No Deal" from EU. Is Ireland prepared for this likely chaos ?

They'll bottle it, if they wanted to leave with no deal they would have done it by now.

All talk

That said, if Varadkar is not prepared for a referendum on Irish unity, he should step down and allow someone who will.

We ought to be prepared for that as well, yet the Irish media won't talk about it

Leroy42 · 01-07-2019 08:54AM

So the deal asks for nothing in terms of traceability?

As Peregrinus said, there are a lot of claims about what this deal is yet no one gas provided any evidence for these claims.

20silkcut · 01-07-2019 09:07AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

So the deal asks for nothing in terms of traceability?

As Peregrinus said, there are a lot of claims about what this deal is yet no one gas provided any evidence for these claims.

Google Brazilian beef traceability for yourself .
It’s all there.

The deal clearly states that it will allow 100,000 tonnes of this beef to be sold in the EU. That’s not a claim it’s a fact.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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