Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public · 25-06-2019 06:26PM

Johnson: "The Irish Taoiseach has already suggested that any further extension would be subject to the condition that the UK holds a second referendum."

That is a serious misrepresentation of what Varadkar actually said, which was this: "So I think an extension could really only happen to facilitate something like a General Election in the UK or perhaps something like a second referendum if they decided to have one."

Disingenuously, Johnson is making it look as if the taoiseach is laying down the law to them, pandering to his base of right wing tories and hard brexiteers. Can't see there is any dealing with the man at all.

First Up · 25-06-2019 06:31PM

Joe_ Public wrote:

Disingenuously, Johnson is making it look as if the taoiseach is laying down the law to them, pandering to his base of right wing tories and hard brexiteers. Can't see there is any dealing with the man at all.

BoJo has only one objective at the moment (become PM) and only one audience (the people who can vote for PM). Everything he says should be interpreted accordingly.

Enzokk · 25-06-2019 06:36PM

Hurrache wrote: »

The sly Hunt has just exposed the EU's dastardly plan..
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1143565534484672512?s=19

Brussels types, look away now he says backstop solution is technology, and EU didn’t listen to that because they wanted to keep us in the Customs Union ... more lines to come

Quote from the tweet. This is ridiculous now, the EU didn't want the UK in a customs union. All they wanted was to ensure the spirit of the GFA is adhered to and for NI to be in a customs union to facilitate this. It was May that insisted, on the back of the DUP, that the whole of the UK is in a customs union. This is no better than the bluster from Johnson, the EU will give Hunt just as little time as they will the unicorns Johnson is selling them.

Pitiful from both.

Enzokk · 25-06-2019 06:38PM

First Up wrote: »

BoJo has only one objective at the moment (become PM) and only one audience (the people who can vote for PM). Everything he says should be interpreted accordingly.

I agree with this, but the piper will need to be paid and if the likes of Francois and the ERG feel they have been left at the alter they will respond and get rid of Johnson as they got rid of May. The difference, he has less support in the Party than May and more rebels so a vote of no-confidence should succeed more easily.

VinLieger · 25-06-2019 06:41PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No Deal increasingly possible. Bookies have it at 2/1 now. Interesting times.

Got it at 13/5 a few months back along with a hard border in 2019 at 4/1, might as well make some money out of this farce

Leroy42 · 25-06-2019 06:43PM

Surely the problem for the ERG is that this really is their run at it. The likes of Baker, JRM etc will lose all credibility (I know its odd that they have any at all) if they turn on Johnson.

At that point they would have had BRexiteers as two ministers for Brexit (3 if there is another) and a fully fledged and fully backed PM Brexiteer.

The counter to that of course is that they don't really care whether Johnson lasts of PM or not, he is the useful idiot that will be happy to deliver No Deal simply to save himself.

Enzokk · 25-06-2019 06:52PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Surely the problem for the ERG is that this really is their run at it. The likes of Baker, JRM etc will lose all credibility (I know its odd that they have any at all) if they turn on Johnson.

At that point they would have had BRexiteers as two ministers for Brexit (3 if there is another) and a fully fledged and fully backed PM Brexiteer.

The counter to that of course is that they don't really care whether Johnson lasts of PM or not, he is the useful idiot that will be happy to deliver No Deal simply to save himself.

Yes, he is the tool to get what they want and they will discard him as soon as he is not useful any longer. The problem is that they have the numbers to make a difference in the HoC so whoever is the PM will have to deal with them with care. It is the Brexit problem, it doesn't matter who is in charge they will still have to deal with the problems May had. A razor thin majority, having to placate the DUP, the ERG and enough soft leave Conservatives that will make the job almost impossible.

Professor Moriarty · 25-06-2019 06:54PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Got it at 13/5 a few months back along with a hard border in 2019 at 4/1, might as well make some money out of this farce

Hope it was a hefty punt. We'll all be taking a cold shower if it happens.

Joe_ Public · 25-06-2019 07:06PM

I cant claim i know better than the oddsmakers, but i wouldnt be touching 2/1 on no deal with my hard earned anyway. I think revoking A50 is around the same price which just indicates how volatile the whole situation is. I know no deal is default position, but there's no part of me can see how that is allowed to happen. I imagine, after seeing that Johnson letter to hunt, that there are conservative mps having conversations about how they will put a stop to his gallop as we speak. He simply doesn't have the numbers to achieve it without the changes to WA he's never going to get.

MrMusician18 · 25-06-2019 07:07PM

First Up wrote: »

If we don't police the EU border in Ireland, it will be policed between Ireland and the rest of the EU. The procedures may be at the Irish port of departure or the EU port of arrival but there will be procedures.

The UK came within days of brexiting last March and there was no evidence of any plan on the ground to collect tariffs or export controls at any Irish port. This lack of action on the ground obviously points out the Irish strategy. They do not believe the UK will leave without a deal or that if it does leave without a deal that that position is unsustainable in the short term or that if it somehow manages to maintain a no deal environment the EU is willing to allow Ireland time to erect the infrastructure necessary to stay in the single market and align itself with the treaties again. The latter means custom posts on the border, because if it came to it the border economy is far less important than seamless exporting for the MNCs that are based here.

I cannot see any situation where the Irish government imposes controls at our own ports unless the EU position of solidarity with Ireland is completely abandoned.

Strazdas · 25-06-2019 07:28PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Johnson: "The Irish Taoiseach has already suggested that any further extension would be subject to the condition that the UK holds a second referendum."

That is a serious misrepresentation of what Varadkar actually said, which was this: "So I think an extension could really only happen to facilitate something like a General Election in the UK or perhaps something like a second referendum if they decided to have one."

Disingenuously, Johnson is making it look as if the taoiseach is laying down the law to them, pandering to his base of right wing tories and hard brexiteers. Can't see there is any dealing with the man at all.

Also, Varadkar was saying that he personally would be open to an extension but it was other states who were opposing it.

serfboard · 25-06-2019 07:32PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Johnson: "The Irish Taoiseach has already suggested that any further extension would be subject to the condition that the UK holds a second referendum."

That is a serious misrepresentation of what Varadkar actually said ...

Disingenuously, Johnson is making it look as if the taoiseach is laying down the law to them, pandering to his base of right wing tories and hard brexiteers.

@FrancieBrady: this is why you don't "show all your cards" to the Brexiteers - because this is what happens when you do.

Leroy42 · 25-06-2019 07:32PM

It is just the UK playing silly games with itself, trying to blame everyone else and not looking for a solution.

When they first started 3 years ago many felt it must be part of some grand scheme, a cunning plan, to play the EU. But it turns out that this is it. They have nothing for hopes and dreams that something will work out.

Of course the large irony in all of this is how quick the UK is willing to accept that they are being pushed around not only by the EU but also Ireland, when they continue to believe that they are so important and will simply get everyone to agree with them.

mm_surf · 25-06-2019 07:33PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I cannot see any situation where the Irish government imposes controls at our own ports unless the EU position of solidarity with Ireland is completely abandoned.

I would be shocked controls for beef and milk/dairy weren’t put in place (in the event of a no-deal brexit)
Irish food carries a premium, and those would be at risk in the event of a porous border. Was done for the foot&mouth risk. I can easily see farmers getting a bit militant about it!

M.

Leroy42 · 25-06-2019 07:38PM

mm_surf wrote: »

I would be shocked controls for beef and milk/dairy weren’t put in place (in the event of a no-deal brexit)
Irish food carries a premium, and those would be at risk in the event of a porous border. Was done for the foot&mouth risk. I can easily see farmers getting a bit militant about it!

M.

As a previous poster mentioned earlier, I think controls such as were in place during Foot n Mouth will be brought in pretty quick with a steady move towards increasing the controls over time.

Hurrache · 25-06-2019 07:38PM

More from Hunt. In a sane world it would read as someone trying to sabotage themselves from getting the job. But in terms of Brexit he's playing to those who have the opportunity to give it to him.
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1143567753456050181?s=19

Strazdas · 25-06-2019 07:54PM

Hurrache wrote: »

More from Hunt. In a sane world it would read as someone trying to sabotage themselves from getting the job. But in terms of Brexit he's playing to those who have the opportunity to give it to him.
https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1143567753456050181?s=19

Interesting response from Prof. Brigid Laffan :

https://twitter.com/BrigidLaffan/status/1143584017612181505

I doubt Hunt is even aware DUP only involvement breaches the GFA

Hurrache · 25-06-2019 08:01PM

Wasn't aware myself, but it's not my job. What is blazingly obvious is that he's excluding the NI, Welsh and Scottish governments from the negotiations.

A Shropshire Lad · 25-06-2019 08:04PM

Its ironic that the Unionists are the ones who are going to break up the Union

First Up · 25-06-2019 08:20PM

MrMusician18 wrote:

The UK came within days of brexiting last March and there was no evidence of any plan on the ground to collect tariffs or export controls at any Irish port.

The construction of additional customs facilities at Irish ports was widely reported, as was the plan for a lorry park near Dublin Airport for trucks queuing for the Port Tunnel.

MrMusician18 wrote:

I cannot see any situation where the Irish government imposes controls at our own ports unless the EU position of solidarity with Ireland is completely abandoned.

Controls at Irish ports would only be for traffic that has not pre-cleared - in effect trucks of NI and British origin. Everything pre-cleared sails through.

A ton of work has been done on this by central Govt, Revenue, Depts of Ag Enterpise and Finance, hauliers, shipping companies, port authorities and several others - all in close consultation with Frontex and other EU agencies. These people know what they are doing and they have handled much trickier EU borders before.

25-06-2019 08:22PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The UK came within days of brexiting last March and there was no evidence of any plan on the ground to collect tariffs or export controls at any Irish port. This lack of action on the ground obviously points out the Irish strategy. They do not believe the UK will leave without a deal or that if it does leave without a deal that that position is unsustainable in the short term or that if it somehow manages to maintain a no deal environment the EU is willing to allow Ireland time to erect the infrastructure necessary to stay in the single market and align itself with the treaties again. The latter means custom posts on the border, because if it came to it the border economy is far less important than seamless exporting for the MNCs that are based here.

I cannot see any situation where the Irish government imposes controls at our own ports unless the EU position of solidarity with Ireland is completely abandoned.

This is where the possible "hard Brexit, (without UK border controls)" puts Ireland on the spot.
If the UK leaves their side of the border open (to honour the GFA).

The EU will expect those controls to be imposed, if Ireland refuses to put them at the border, then they will be put in the French coastal ports.

listermint · 25-06-2019 08:25PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is where the possible "hard Brexit, (without UK border controls)" puts Ireland on the spot.
If the UK leaves their side of the border open (to honour the GFA).

The EU will expect those controls to be imposed, if Ireland refuses to put them at the border, then they will be put in the French coastal ports.

There will be a border.

You know it, I know it we all know it.

Any you know well our government can't say it right at the moment because there is road to run till October.

Spanish Eyes · 25-06-2019 08:39PM

listermint wrote: »

There will be a border.

You know it, I know it we all know it.

Any you know well our government can't say it right at the moment because there is road to run till October.

But there might not be a No Deal Brexit either. Be optimistic.

I know from contacts that you are correct about a border if all else fails. There is a lot going on in the background, but best to keep it low key at the moment. Best move IMO. Don't let the Brexiteers have the last laugh at us being unprepared or anything. LOL.

Leroy42 · 25-06-2019 08:44PM

There is absolutely nothing that Leo, Ireland or indeed the EU can say or do to influence the UK to move towards a deal. They have tried being direct, indirect, understanding, tough. Extending deadlines, keeping quiet, speaking up.

We had the sight of Obama being told to stay out of the UK business prior to the ref, but its totally acceptable for Farage and Johnson to be in direct contact with Bannon?

Whatever we say will be twisted and turned to 'prove' their point. If we say we are preparing for a border, the likes of IDS, JRM etc will be straight out to state that this shows that the EU never wanted Brexit to succeed and there is no chance of a FTA as they hate the UK. We say we don't want a border and IDS etc come out saying this 'proves' no border is required and the EU is trying to trap them.

Either way, the UK are not listening to themselves, never mind anyone else.

Spanish Eyes · 25-06-2019 08:54PM

I have no doubt that Coveney is doing a good job at the moment. He is in contact with the EU most days, if not every day now I'd say. We just do not hear about it.

It's better that way. Less speculation.

trellheim · 25-06-2019 09:15PM

Boris Johnson paints buses for relaxation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRHfgF0l1Jc&feature=youtu.be. Skip to six minutes in . If you want to put your head in your hands take a ticket and get in line.

Professor Moriarty · 25-06-2019 09:19PM

trellheim wrote: »

Boris Johnson paints buses for relaxation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRHfgF0l1Jc&feature=youtu.be. Skip to six minutes in . If you want to put your head in your hands take a ticket and get in line.

Do the buses have adverts for 350 million a week, I wonder. I must say he came across as very convincing when he talked about his hobby. Not.

volchitsa · 25-06-2019 09:27PM

trellheim wrote: »

Boris Johnson paints buses for relaxation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRHfgF0l1Jc&feature=youtu.be. Skip to six minutes in . If you want to put your head in your hands take a ticket and get in line.

He's trolling the British public. Has to be. The Boris Bus scheme was a disaster, if only he'd stuck to painting model buses it would have been far better.

Leroy42 · 25-06-2019 09:39PM

volchitsa wrote: »

He's trolling the British public. Has to be. The Boris Bus scheme was a disaster, if only he'd stuck to painting model buses it would have been far better.

Yeah, I have that feeling as well. The very fact that he seemingly has little idea of what is actually involved would suggest he was simply making something up.

The more I see/hear from Johnson the more I see the same playbook that worked so well with Trump and obviously has Bannon helping.

Even the argument and picture issue could have easily been dealt with but it actually serves Johnson better to play the victim and also use up valuable interview time instead of deep questioning about his lack of a plan.

And it works because he knows Hunt doesn't have a plan either and so even his opponent doesn't want to get into a debate.

A Shropshire Lad · 25-06-2019 09:42PM

And he enjoys painting the little passengers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLcCZjDoWTQ

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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