Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 25-06-2019 04:32PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's caught between personal ideology and the views of about 26 Leave MPs versus the views of a vast majority of Labour party members

Didn't he run on the promise to always listen to the members and d as they wished rather than simply what the leader wanted?

It is quite changearound.

Going back to Johnson, he has done a few interviews yesterday and today and apart from the lack of any plan (1 answer was they needed a plan!) and his inability to deal with what should be a fairly straightforward issue regarding the argument, is his complete lack of ability to actually speak.

He makes no sense whatsoever. His diction is a disaster, he seemingly has no vocabulary as he is always reaching so a word and he cannot string a sentence, never mind a cogent argument, together.

This is the man that they think will persuade the EU to change it position. They simply will have no idea what he is talking about.

VinLieger · 25-06-2019 04:34PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He's caught between personal ideology and the views of about 26 Leave MPs versus the views of a vast majority of Labour party members

100% agree, i cannot understand how the grassroots who are absolutely in the majority remain cannot see he is a big part of the reason brexit is in the state it is and they are still without a GE or 2nd Ref

Professor Moriarty · 25-06-2019 04:47PM

VinLieger wrote: »

100% agree, i cannot understand how the grassroots who are absolutely in the majority remain cannot see he is a big part of the reason brexit is in the state it is and they are still without a GE or 2nd Ref

Reading between the lines, it seems like he's increasingly isolated within the Labour party. When Watson openly challenged his position recently, it emboldened others to do the same. I think he either now backs a second referendum or there will be a heave.

Laois_Man · 25-06-2019 04:51PM

First Up wrote: »

If we don't police the EU border in Ireland, it will be policed between Ireland and the rest of the EU. The procedures may be at the Irish port of departure or the EU port of arrival but there will be procedures.

And you're saying these procedures will begin on November 1st?

First Up · 25-06-2019 05:00PM

Laois_Man wrote:

And you're saying these procedures will begin on November 1st?

Barring any other intervention or developments - yes.

CelticRambler · 25-06-2019 05:02PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We should be spelling out what will happen and why it will happen and who is at fault for it in stereo with the EU, every chance we get.

"We" have been doing that for years. Remember the "Barnier staircase" ? We gave the Brits a simple step-by-step guide to what they could expect in the light of TM's red lines. Instead of picking one of the pre-defined options, they decided to play pin the tail on the unicorn.

Reporters and journalists (e.g. James O'Brien) have spent years trying to get Leavers to explain precisely which law and what regulations they'll change post Brexit. YouGov & other pollsters constantly demonstrate that a huge percentage of the English are now fully indoctrinated into the cult of Brexit.

And if that wasn't enough, there is no way "we" can spell out (any more than we have) what will happen in the future or who is/will be at fault when none of us know if, when or what circumstances will surround an eventual Brexit.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

we should be hoping to persuade the British public of the no-win situation they are in.

Turn that around for a sec: how would you feel if we had a bunch of Germans, Spaniards or Romanians telling us what to think? :eek:

It is not our fault that the English have bred the kind of rabid press and insipid BBC that informs them; it is not our fault that they've got a ridiculously unrepresentative electoral system; and it is not our fault if the Remain/pro-EU/anti-Brexit can't get their act together to smack some sense into the heads of the other side.

Joe_ Public · 25-06-2019 05:04PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

Bernard Jenkin on Newsnight now suggesting that it is possible to do a basic interim trade deal and do it before the 31st of October just on goods and even better can be done on a few sheets of paper under GATT Article 24. Do they really want to put tariffs on trade between the UK and EU? he bellows.
Emily Maitlis is again clueless on this and gets muddled and flustered. Andrew Neal would rip Jenkin to shreds on the same issue.

Andrew Neil has been going through them for a shortcut for months, this as faar back as January last:

Enzokk · 25-06-2019 05:08PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Going back to Johnson, he has done a few interviews yesterday and today and apart from the lack of any plan (1 answer was they needed a plan!) and his inability to deal with what should be a fairly straightforward issue regarding the argument, is his complete lack of ability to actually speak.

He makes no sense whatsoever. His diction is a disaster, he seemingly has no vocabulary as he is always reaching so a word and he cannot string a sentence, never mind a cogent argument, together.

This is the man that they think will persuade the EU to change it position. They simply will have no idea what he is talking about.

He is very effective when he does he whaffling and obfuscating. The problem for him is that on Brexit there is very little chance to try and chance your way through an interview on the subject as people and journalists have been focused on it now for 3 years and know the inns and outs of the arguments.

Have you seen any Brexiteer come out of an interview where they are challenged on their stance in any credible way? Think about that? Try to think how badly Barry Gardiner has been as he has been chasing the same shadows from a Labour point of view on Brexit.

The problem is if they will need to admit that there is no sunny upland and there will be pain for people and they will not do that as they campaigned on Brexit being good for the country where they would continue being a big player while leaving the EU. We know this is false so any interview with anyone on this subject will be a car crash.

Take any other subject and his style will be very effective. It is just Brexit that is catching him out.

Laois_Man · 25-06-2019 05:12PM

First Up wrote: »

Barring any other intervention or developments - yes.

So the fact that the UK asked for an extension with 9 days to go before Brexit in March, and asked again with 7 days to go before Brexit in April, where neither Ireland nor the EU had put in place any plans to implement such procedures, and where they are currently making no plans to do so on November 1st either, doesn't make you think you might be wrong?

Leroy42 · 25-06-2019 05:13PM

Certainly his style seems to be very popular with the masses, but the problem he will find is that once PM he is no longer dealing with the masses but with other world leaders and leaders in other areas.

Clearly the EU will be willing to listen to any plans from the UK, they don't want a No Deal, but Johnson will not be able to state a plan to them. Some waffle about plans, and post implementation arrangements and "Art 24 or whatever" is not going to cut it.

It might have been a runner at the start of the process, but not after 3 years.

Alun · 25-06-2019 05:16PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Going back to Johnson, he has done a few interviews yesterday and today and apart from the lack of any plan (1 answer was they needed a plan!) and his inability to deal with what should be a fairly straightforward issue regarding the argument, is his complete lack of ability to actually speak.

He makes no sense whatsoever. His diction is a disaster, he seemingly has no vocabulary as he is always reaching so a word and he cannot string a sentence, never mind a cogent argument, together.

This is the man that they think will persuade the EU to change it position. They simply will have no idea what he is talking about.

I agree 100%, he's no better than Trump in that regard. The EU will make mincemeat of him.

First Up · 25-06-2019 05:17PM

Laois_Man wrote:

So the fact that the UK asked for an extension with 9 days to go before Brexit in March, and asked again with 7 days to go before Brexit in April, where neither Ireland nor the EU had put in place any plans to implement such procedures, and where they are currently making no plans to do so on November 1st either, doesn't make you think you might be wrong?

What makes you think nobody is making plans?

VinLieger · 25-06-2019 05:22PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

So the fact that the UK asked for an extension with 9 days to go before Brexit in March, and asked again with 7 days to go before Brexit in April, where neither Ireland nor the EU had put in place any plans to implement such procedures, and where they are currently making no plans to do so on November 1st either, doesn't make you think you might be wrong?

Theyve been making plans since the day article 50 was triggered if not the day the result came in, they have simply not made them entirely public as doing so would have benefitted the UKs negotiating team

fly_agaric · 25-06-2019 05:23PM

First Up wrote: »

Whatever way it is managed, it will not be Ireland "dragging its feet" or pretending to do anything.

Have you observed governance here over last 20 years?
It is always foot dragging and can kicking until forced by circumstances.

Effect of the NI border becoming an external EU frontier we have to watch overnight in event of UK crash-out Brexit are awfully painful and quite monumental (unlike some of the other 'very very hard, so so complex' stuff that gets long fingered by our politicians like building a few poxy houses, bus lanes or a toy tram system!)

Joe_ Public · 25-06-2019 05:26PM

From what i see everything about Johnson is shrouded in mythology. The myth that he's some kind of avuncular charmer who will attract people with his steady wit and magnetic charm when, as Max Hastings and others have attested, he's in reality a boorish charlatan with a temper that wont bear up in pressure situations. That he will be some kind of magnetic vote getter and saviour of the conservative party is another myth. So he won 2 mayoral elections in the capital, against an opponent whose stock had well and truly fallen by that time and Johnsons record simply does not bear the scrutiny they pretend it does. "Boris delivered the Olympics," they chorus, as if he did it all single-handed or even had anything to do with the initial campaign. His own seat in Uxbridge isn't even that watertight in the event of an early election, as constituents there have a bone to pick with him over the heathrow terminal issue. He has a working majority of just 5,000.

The bottom line is if there actually was any "wiggle room" in the EU's negotiating position, then the last person you would wish to send to talk to them would be Boris Johnson. It's not just that they dont like him, but that they dont rate him and would likely see him out of town at the first sign of foolishness. He just isn't any good really which is what the cultish bracket of his supporters will discover to their and our cost before very long i wager.

Enzokk · 25-06-2019 05:32PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Certainly his style seems to be very popular with the masses, but the problem he will find is that once PM he is no longer dealing with the masses but with other world leaders and leaders in other areas.

Clearly the EU will be willing to listen to any plans from the UK, they don't want a No Deal, but Johnson will not be able to state a plan to them. Some waffle about plans, and post implementation arrangements and "Art 24 or whatever" is not going to cut it.

It might have been a runner at the start of the process, but not after 3 years.

I agree, but any of the candidates other than Stewart will be caught out because Brexit is a car crash. Trying to defend it will not end well for anyone. We will wait for Hunt to get in front of journalists and do his interviews to see if he handles it any better, but I doubt he will be because to get the vote to become leader will mean you will have to believe in unicorns.

I mean is the plan put forward by Jeremy Hunt anymore credible than Johnson? The EU has already said no to renegotiation, so what will he offer the EU to open talks again that will mean the backstop will not be needed?

Alun wrote: »

I agree 100%, he's no better than Trump in that regard. The EU will make mincemeat of him.

The EU will make mincemeat of any candidate who comes in with unrealistic objectives.

Spanish Eyes · 25-06-2019 05:41PM

I would be concerned about Johnson upholding the dignity of office as PM.

He has blustered his way to this point by inventing himself as a buffoon, and has got away with it. But he has never had to hold high office.

Remember there is only a potential majority of 160k Tory voters who may elevate him. I doubt he would be able to argue his way out of a paper bag in real life.

For that reason, I want him to be PM. Let him and the TP see what reality is like and so on.

Whatever about the disastrous tenure of Theresa May, the one thing you could say about her is that she had dignity, manners and respect in her own right.

Am not so sure if Johnson could speak a sentence with accuracy and gravitas. And now that he's had his hair cut, he cannot hide behind his big fringe either.

I think the UK is really going to hell in a handcart. But let them at it. I know we will be affected, but no matter what it's not really going to improve unless Johnson just revokes. I wouldn't be surprised, but would be happy if he did. It would be something different I suppose and maybe he will dress it up somehow as a holding measure or something. I must dream on though.

kunst nugget · 25-06-2019 05:46PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I would be concerned about Johnson upholding the dignity of office as PM.

He has blustered his way to this point by inventing himself as a buffoon, and has got away with it. But he has never had to hold high office .

Is foreign secretary not high office? I mean, he made a hames of it but I would have thought that it would be considered high office.

ancapailldorcha · 25-06-2019 05:49PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Is foreign secretary not high office? I mean, he made a hames of it but I would have thought that it would be considered high office.

The four great offices of state are Prime Minister, Chancellor, Home Secretary & Foreign Secretary.

Spanish Eyes · 25-06-2019 05:49PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Is foreign secretary not high office? I mean, he made a hames of it but I would have thought that it would be considered high office.

No, being a Minister for Foreign Affairs (equivalent here) is being a member of Cabinet. He rightly stitched up Razanin, and is still bluffing his way out of that one.

Being PM is high office IMV. Maybe I should have said that instead.

Spanish Eyes · 25-06-2019 05:50PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The four great offices of state are Prime Minister, Chancellor, Home Secretary & Foreign Secretary.

Does everyone in UK know this? Is there a rule for this anywhere. Thanks.

Leroy42 · 25-06-2019 05:51PM

Yes, Foreign Sec is high office as is any minister. And I would count London Mayor as high office as well.

And in both of them he made terrible errors and has no specific achievements to point to.

One area that is being glossed over by the media in the UK, or at least I haven't seen it brought up directly to Team Boris, is why he choose to vote for TM deal the last vote? Would he have accepted it if it had passed? What has changed since then to so massively rule it out?

Also, and this is a question for both Johnson and Hunt, they should be asked how they 1) envisage No deal impacting the country and 2) how will they counteract any impact.

ancapailldorcha · 25-06-2019 05:52PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Does everyone in UK know this? Is there a rule for this anywhere. Thanks.

Does the whole country know this? Highly unlikely.

There's no rule. These four positions are simply the highest and most prestigious in government and are therefore the most sought after. Like Parliament, convention is important here.

Spanish Eyes · 25-06-2019 05:54PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Does the whole country know this? Highly unlikely.

There's no rule. These four positions are simply the highest and most prestigious in government and are therefore the most sought after. Like Parliament, convention is important here.

Thanks,

The only one of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse I know the name of is TM. There have been so many resignations and sackings lately. Note to self, look up who the other three Stooges are.

Enzokk · 25-06-2019 05:57PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

One area that is being glossed over by the media in the UK, or at least I haven't seen it brought up directly to Team Boris, is why he choose to vote for TM deal the last vote? Would he have accepted it if it had passed? What has changed since then to so massively rule it out?

Also, and this is a question for both Johnson and Hunt, they should be asked how they 1) envisage No deal impacting the country and 2) how will they counteract any impact.

Well the easy explanation for him voting for her deal is just to get Brexit done with. That would have fulfilled the referendum vote so if it was successful he would have sold it as such. It is still one of the great ironies, Brexiteers who want to leave the EU keep voting against leaving the EU.

The real problem I see for Hunt is that he is a Remainer. This will surely link him to May and once he goes to the EU and asks for a extension he will be hammered the same as she was. So electing him leader solves absolutely nothing.

Hurrache · 25-06-2019 06:09PM

The sly Hunt has just exposed the EU's dastardly plan..
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1143565534484672512?s=19

Joe_ Public · 25-06-2019 06:10PM

Seems a valid question to me. If Johnson was able to vote for PM's deal back in March, then why couldn't he vote for it now? The dynamics remain the same: if they want to leave then it remains the only viable option for them to achieve it. To persist with the fantasy that he's going to be able to lead them out on a no deal ticket is simply wasting everybody's time, which the EU warned against. "Things change," i heard him say during one of the interviews which is probably how he'd begin his explanation of his many volte faces. Apparently, however, things don't change enough over there when it comes to the issue of a peoples vote. Seems everybody else can change their mind, except the actual people themselves.

spacecoyote · 25-06-2019 06:14PM

Not sure if posted but seems hes trying to put the challenge out to Hunt to either commit or back down on Brexit in October

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1143536757360738304

Tell me how · 25-06-2019 06:17PM

^^^

Jeremy should respond with.

'Let's discuss on TV in front of the entire UK Boris"

Professor Moriarty · 25-06-2019 06:19PM

No Deal increasingly possible. Bookies have it at 2/1 now. Interesting times.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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